NBA Grind Down: Monday, February 24th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-02-24 20:50:46

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace

Milwaukee at Philadelphia

Vegas Line – Milwaukee -1, 209 Over/Under
Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Wolters-Middleton-Ilyasova-Pachulia
Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Williams-Anderson-Young-Moultrie

Milwaukee

There are 5 games on the Monday night NBA schedule and we start with a good one. This is my favorite game to target tonight. The total for this game is set at 209 points, but the total doesn’t tell the whole story of how great this game should be for fantasy purposes. These teams are two of the least efficient offensive teams in the league which means for a total to be that high, this game is going to have to be played at an extremely fast pace. Not only will there be a lot of points scored, but the number of possessions will be extremely high which helps pad rebound, assist, block and steal totals as well.

We all know how bad this Sixers defense is. In their first game since the Hawes and Turner trades, the Sixers gave up an incredible 124 points to the Mavericks. While the Bucks are not known for their offensive prowess, they should have no problem scoring the ball tonight. There are two obvious plays here and then a few under the radar plays. Nate Wolters should be in for a nice bounce back game after being quiet in their last game against the Pacers. Zaza Pachulia offers great value on almost every site, he will get the start at Center and he doesn’t have to do much to cover his value. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, and John Henson all make nice upside plays in a GPP.

Ersan Ilyasova – Ilyasova sees some of the most inconsistent minutes in the NBA. That said, Larry Drew typically gives Sova all the minutes he can handle when he is knocking down shots. I love this matchup for him tonight and think he will come out of the gates on fire. Sova is very cheap across the board and I’m going out on a limb and predicting him to top 30 FP’s.

Brandon Knight – Knight is dealing with an injury to his foot. He has a cut on it that has kept him out of a game already. However, when he has been in the lineup, it hasn’t affected his play at all. Knight had one of the best games I’ve seen a PG have against the Pacers this season and I can’t wait to see what he can do against this weak Sixers’ defense.

Philadelphia

The Sixers are also in a great position tonight. The Bucks have really tried to push the pace over the last couple of weeks and the Bucks are giving up an average of 102 points per game this season to their opponents. The Bucks are ranked 16th or worse against all positions over the last 15 days in terms of fantasy points allowed and have been near the bottom of the league against big men all season long.

Last game, the Sixers rolled out a starting lineup consisting of MCW, Williams, Anderson, Young, and Moultrie. All of those starters have been confirmed for tonight’s game except for Elliot Williams. The Sixers will likely debut their new acquisition tonight too. Danny Granger should be a great fantasy option on this team, but I’m going to give him a game or two to get comfortable in this offense (if you want to call it an offense). Arnett Moultrie makes a nice punt option at Center tonight and Tony Wroten makes a nice upside play. Wroten scored 26 FP’s in his last game.

Thaddeus Young – I highly recommended Young the other night and hopefully you took my advice. Young went off for 64 fantasy points and was the difference maker in most league. With Turner and Hawes both gone, Young is now the Sixers best offensive weapon and he should average close to 25 shot attempts per game. I think he is a must play tonight on both FD and DK where he is still listed under $8,000.

Michael Carter-Williams – MCW has no choice but to play well now. The Sixers don’t really have any other great options offensively. MCW put up 38 FP’s in his first game without Turner and Hawes and I expect that to continue going forward. The Sixers want to give him all the experience they can and his fantasy production should take a huge spike upwards.

James Anderson – Anderson was pretty much the only Sixers’ player to have a bad game the other night against the Mavericks. That’s good news for us though because I’m guessing a lot of DFS players will be scared to take him now. He’s still extremely affordable and should see a nice fantasy boost in Turner’s absence. Look for Anderson to have a nice bounce back game tonight.

Golden State at Detroit

Vegas Line – Golden State -3, 207 Over/Under
Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Iguodala-Lee-O’Neal
Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Singler-Smith-Monroe-Drummond

Golden State

We go from one fast-paced game to the next. Both of these teams average at least 97 possessions per game which is well above the league average. The difference between this game and the Sixers/Bucks game is that one of these teams actually plays some defense. That said, the Warriors have already ruled out David Lee and have Andrew Bogut listed as questionable. If the Warriors have to play without those two, look for them to try to win this game with their offense.

The Pistons are giving up 103 points per game to their opponents this season and are ranked 17th or worse against all five positions in terms of fantasy points allowed. With Lee out and Bogut questionable, Draymond Green will likely get the start at PF and Jermaine O’Neal figures to be in for a nice fantasy boost as well. Both make great punt options tonight against the Pistons.

Stephen Curry – Curry has scored under 40 FP’s in 3 straight games. Something tells me that he will end that streak tonight. Not only will he be asked to be more aggressive offensively with Lee out, but he has a terrific matchup against Jennings and the Pistons who have given up the 7th most FP’s to opposing PG’s this season.

Andre Iguodala – Iguodala is flying under the radar tonight, but he’s really stepped up his game lately. He’s scored at least 20 FP’s in 7 straight games and has averaged over 30 FP’s per game during that stretch. I love his matchup tonight against the turnover prone Josh Smith. Look for Iggy to fill up the stat sheet and continue his solid production.

Detroit

The Pistons have a nice matchup against the Warriors tonight that would turn into a great matchup if Andrew Bogut has to sit out. Without Lee and Bogut, the Warriors don’t have anyone to protect the rim other than Jermaine O’Neal. While he can have solid defensive possessions here and there, he is not nearly the same defender that he used to be.

Looking at the DvP rankings of the Warriors, you may want to avoid the Pistons altogether, but they don’t tell the whole story. The Warriors will be very short-handed in the front-court and should have a problem protecting the rim. Josh Smith is probably the one starter that I will not be using tonight. He will be hounded by Andre Iguodala who is one of the best defenders in the league. Kyle Singler is in play though, he makes a nice punt option on both DK and FD.

Andre Drummond – Drummond’s price has come down on most of the major DFS sites after he had a very quiet game against the Mavericks in which he only played 20 minutes due to foul trouble. He is primed for a huge bounce back game tonight, especially if Bogut has to sit. Drummond should be a lock for a 15 point, 15 rebound game and has the potential to be the top fantasy Center tonight.

Greg Monroe – This is a great time to board the Monroe bandwagon. He has topped 29 fantasy points in each of his last 6 games and has topped 40 FP’s in each of his last 2. He has a terrific matchup tonight against the much smaller Draymond Green.

Brandon Jennings – I’m always a bit mixed on Jennings because he is one of those players that doesn’t have a high floor. He has an extremely high ceiling, but often gives you those 10-15 FP performances that end up killing your cash game lineups. That said, an uptempo matchup against Curry may be too good to pass up.

Dallas at New York

Vegas Line – Dallas -4, 204.5 Over/Under
Dallas Proj. Starters – Calderon-Ellis-Marion-Nowitzki-Dalembert
New York Proj. Starters – Felton-Prigioni-Smith-Anthony-Chandler

Dallas

The Mavericks and Knicks game also has a high total tonight. Both of these teams like to push the tempo and neither team minds getting into a track meet. The Knicks have really defended opposing big men well this season though. They are ranked 1st and 4th against PF’s and Centers. While that means we should definitely avoid the Centers of the Mavs, I don’t necessarily think that we have to avoid Dirk Nowitzki. He’s so tough to guard that I don’t see him having a bad game tonight.

The other Mavericks are all average fantasy options. Jose Calderon has not been playing well lately and has a tough matchup against Felton. Monta Ellis has scored under 25 FP’s in 3 of his last 6 games. Other than Dirk, Shawn Marion will be the only Mavs player that I have any exposure to. He has scored over 28 FP’s in back to back games and has a nice matchup against J.R. Smith.

New York

The Knicks will be without Iman Shumpert again tonight so look for J.R. Smith to get another start and for Tim Hardaway to continue seeing major playing time off the bench. Hardaway makes a nice punt option as he is playing over 30 minutes per game. He does have fairly limited upside though as Melo and Smith tend to take the majority of the shot attempts when he is on the floor.

The Mavericks have given up 102 points per game this season and have been very average defensively if you look at their DvP rankings. They are ranked between 12th and 21st at defending all five positions. Tyson Chandler makes a nice punt option at Center tonight, his price is still very affordable on both FD and DK. Raymond Felton has really played well over the past couple of weeks and could make a nice sleeper pick.

Carmelo Anthony – Melo has one of the highest usage rates in the NBA and that’s not going to change anytime soon. He has been a monster at home this season as he is averaging close to 45 FP’s per game in the Garden. Melo has a nice matchup against Dirk and he could easily be the top scoring fantasy option tonight. If you can find a way to get him in your lineup, it could really pay off.

J.R. Smith – Smith has been a little bit of a letdown as the starting SF, but he hasn’t necessarily played awful either. He should see around 35 minutes tonight in an uptempo game against the Mavericks. For his price, he offers great upside.

L.A.Clippers at New Orleans

Vegas Line – L.A. Clippers -4, 204 Over/Under
L.A.Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Crawford-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan
New Orleans Proj. Starters – Roberts-Gordon-Aminu-Davis-Ajinca

L.A.Clippers

Even though there are only 5 games on the schedule tonight, it’s a nice slate of games because the biggest favorite of the night is only 4 points and 4 of these games have a total over 200 points. That opens up the door for plenty of options which means a nice diversity of lineups across the sites.

The Clippers picked up a tough win against the Thunder yesterday and now travel to New Orleans to take on the Pelicans in a back to back situation. The Pelicans are giving up 101 points per game this season and have not defended these three positions well: PG’s, PF’s, and Centers. Those three positions just so happen to be the positions of the three best fantasy options on the Clippers. Dollar for dollar, I think Blake Griffin is the worst value of the three, but he’s still very much in play.

Chris Paul – Paul’s price is slowly coming up, but I still think he is a bit too cheap. On FD, he is still under $9,000 and is as close to a must play as you are going to find. Paul is back to his early season form where he was posting MVP-type numbers. He has a great matchup tonight against Roberts.

DeAndre Jordan – Jordan is one of my favorite plays tonight. He’s only $7,200 on DK and he is just over $15,000 on DS. To me, he is mis-priced on both sites and you should take advantage of that tonight. Jordan has scored over 38 FP’s in 7 of his last 9 games and should be able to reach that mark tonight against the Pelicans.

New Orleans

The Pelicans are projected to score 100 points tonight which is right around their season average. This should be a fast-paced game, but I really only like two options here. Neither Alexis Ajinca nor Greg Stiemsma scream fantasy potential. Brian Roberts will have his hands full with Paul who has held opposing PG’s to the least amount of fantasy points this season. Tyreke Evans provides decent value as a GPP play, but does not have consistent enough production to warrant cash game consideration.

Anthony Davis – Davis is one of my favorite players in the league right now. He can rack up fantasy points in so many different ways that he is a threat to put up 50 FP’s every night he takes the floor. I still think his price on most sites is a little low and I love his matchup against Griffin and the Clippers who have been awful at defending the paint this season.

Eric Gordon – Gordon makes a nice play at SG tonight. This position can be very hard to fill, especially on FD. He has a great matchup against Crawford who is much more concerned with his game on the offensive end of the floor. Gordon is averaging around 25 FP’s at home this season which is what you can expect out of him tonight.

Boston at Utah

Vegas Line – Utah -3, 189.5 Over/Under
Boston Proj. Starters – Rondo-Green-Wallace-Sullinger-Bass
Utah Proj. Starters – Burke-Hayward-Jefferson-Williams-Kanter

Boston

The final game of the night features two of the slower paced teams on the schedule tonight. The Celtics average 96 possessions per game and the Jazz only average 93 possessions per game. This is projected to be the lowest scoring game of the night and it’s not even close. The total of 189 points is a full 15 points lower than the next lowest total. That said, there are still some nice fantasy options in this matchup.

Jared Sullinger has already been ruled out of tonight’s game as he is still dealing with some symptoms of a concussion. Kris Humphries got the start for him the other night and really played well. His stellar play will likely earn him another start tonight, but check closer to tip-off for an update. Sully’s absence also gives a nice fantasy boost to Kelly Olynyk and Brandon Bass.

Rajon Rondo – Rondo should be well rested after sitting out their game on Saturday night to rest. He has a great matchup against Burke and company and I think Rondo will be able to post close to triple-double type of numbers. Rondo should have his fingerprints all over this game.

Utah

The Jazz are hoping to have Derrick Favors back tonight. He went through shoot-around this morning, but he is still listed as a game-time decision. If Favors has to sit, Enes Kanter would make a great value play. He has really played well in the last few games without Favors. Hopefully we will get an update on Favors before the first game tips off, but if not, Kanter will only be an option on late swap sites.

Gordon Hayward – Hayward is one of those players that you never really know what to expect out of. In his last 4 games, he has put up 45, 16, 41, and 10 fantasy points. His home/road splits are almost identical so it’s not a case of bad play on the road. He just seems to be really engaged some games and be fine as a spectator for others. While this hurts his value for cash games, I think he is in play tonight. The C’s have given up the 6th most FP’s to opposing SG’s over the last 15 days.

Trey Burke – The All-Star Break was exactly what Burke needed. In his 3 games after the break, he has scored 31, 39, and 34 fantasy points. Burke has very good splits at home and should play well tonight against the C’s. While his one on one matchup against Rondo isn’t great, I still think he will do enough to cover value on most sites.