NBA Grind Down: Monday, March 10th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-03-10 19:59:32

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace

Denver at Charlotte

Vegas Line – Charlotte -6, 208.5 Over/Under
Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Foye-Chandler-Faried-Mozgov
Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Douglas-Roberts-Kidd-Gilchrist-McRoberts-Jefferson

Denver

What’s up Grinders, happy Monday! Let’s jump right into it today. The first game on tap is between the Nuggets and Bobcats, two teams with opposing styles of play. While the Nuggets like to push the pace, the Bobcats are well below the league average at only 95 possessions per game. This may come as a bit of a surprise, but the Bobcats own a top-10 defense this season. They are holding their opponents to only 97.4 points per game this season. While they will have a tough time keeping the Nuggets near that, we do have to factor in a solid defense and a slower pace of play.

If you look at the season long DvP rankings, the Bobcats are ranked 20th against both PG’s and Centers in terms of fantasy points allowed, but over the last 15 days, the Bobcats are ranked 13th or better against all five positions on the floor. This really hurts the value of players like Randy Foye, Wilson Chandler, and Kenneth Faried, all of whom have been playing at a very high level since Lawson was re-inserted into the lineup. As tempting as it may be to keep riding the Nuggets bandwagon, we have to trust the numbers in this one. The numbers say to only target the PG position against the Bobcats.

Ty Lawson – Lawson has been on a tear since coming back from his rib injury. In his last 4 games, he is averaging 40 minutes per game while posting close to 45 FP’s per outing. He draws a decent matchup tonight against Kemba Walker, but Lawson’s price has shot up across the industry and he is no longer under-priced on any of the major sites. If you are playing Lawson tonight, you are going to have to pay up for him. That said, Lawson should be the leading scorer on the Nuggets again tonight.

Charlotte

With this game featuring two opposing styles of play, we have to give a major fantasy boost to the Bobcats. They are only averaging 95.4 points per game this season, yet based on the Vegas line, they are projected to score 107 points tonight. You can safely bump up all of the Bobcats players as the Nuggets defense has been nowhere to be found over the past few games. The Nuggets are now giving up 105.6 points per game this season which is the 3rd most in the NBA.

Gerald Henderson could make his return to the lineup tonight, but the Bobcats have no reason to rush him back as they have had solid production from Chris Douglas-Roberts. I’d be surprised to see Henderson out there tonight. If CDR does get another start, he would make a great punt play across the industry. He’s averaging close to 30 minutes and 23 FP’s per game while filling in for Henderson. Josh McRoberts is a very sneaky play tonight as his price is very affordable considering his matchup. You can find him on most sites for less than 10% of the salary cap.

Kemba Walker (Noto’s Play of the Night) – Kemba gets the honors for play of the night. He not only finds himself in a terrific matchup, but he is also playing at home where he is averaging close to 35 FP’s per game this season. Kemba is not the most consistent player, but his price remains relatively low because of it. He has the upside to reach 50 FP’s in this matchup.

Al Jefferson – Jefferson has the potential to be the top fantasy option overall tonight. The Nuggets have been one of the worst interior defenses all season long and Big Al continues to play well even despite some tough matchups of late. In their first meeting, Big Al went for 35 points, 11 rebounds, 2 assists, and 2 blocks. He has similar upside again tonight.

Toronto at Brooklyn

Vegas Line – Brooklyn -2, 197 Over/Under
Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-Derozan-Ross-Johnson-Valanciunas
Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Livingston-Johnson-Blatche-Plumlee

Toronto

While this game doesn’t necessarily scream fantasy upside, it does mean a lot to both of these teams. The Raptors are currently in the 3 seed in the East, but they have a very slim margin. The Nets are currently in the 6 spot, but could cut the lead to only 3 games with a win over the Raptors tonight. I expect this game to be a very close one right down to the wire.

The Nets’ resurgence has started on the defensive end of the floor. The Nets are holding their opponents to 99.2 points per game this season which is ranked 10th in the NBA. The Nets are also ranked 8th or better against SF’s, PF’s, and Centers in terms of fantasy points allowed which is a bit surprising considering the fact that they are the 2nd worst rebounding team in the league (total % of rebounds).

Patrick Patterson will be out for a couple of weeks with a sprained elbow. This opens up a lot of playing time for the other Raptor bigs. Patterson was playing around 25-30 minutes per game and those should be distributed between Valanciunas, Johnson, and Hansbrough. If this were a better matchup, I might recommend them as plays, but I’m not sure I will be targeting any of them tonight. With Kyle Lowry dealing with a few injuries, DeMar DeRozan is really the only recommended play here.

Brooklyn

The Nets are also in a less than favorable matchup tonight. The Raptors own a top-5 defense this season and are holding their opponents to 97.1 points per game. Looking at the DvP rankings, it doesn’t really get any better. The Raptors are ranked 14th or better in fantasy points allowed to all five positions on the floor. The two plays that I don’t mind here are Shaun Livingston and Andray Blatche. Livingston is averaging over 20 FP’s per game over his last 6 and Blatche has been instant offense off the bench for the Nets. They are better served as GPP plays tonight though.

Washington at Miami

Vegas Line – Miami -6.5, 204 Over/Under
Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Ariza-Booker-Gortat
Miami Proj. Starters – Chalmers-Wade-James-Battier-Bosh

Washington

The Wizards have been playing some great basketball over the past few weeks, but have a tough matchup against the Heat tonight. This game means as much to the Heat as it does to the Wizards as both teams are currently fighting for playoff positioning. The Heat play at a pace well below the league average (94 possessions per game) and are holding their opponents to 98.6 points per game this season.

Even though the total suggests that this game will be fairly high scoring, it should be one of the slower paced games tonight. The Heat have been very stout defensively against PG’s, SG’s, and SF’s this season with DvP rankings of 1st, 1st, and 4th against those positions. You can safely avoid John Wall, Bradley Beal, and Trevor Ariza in cash games.

Marcin Gortat – The one position that the Heat have not defended well this season is the Center position. The Heat just don’t have the size down low to match up with some of these teams. The Heat are the 3rd worst rebounding team in the league in terms of total rebounding percentage and Gortat should own the glass tonight.

Miami

It felt nice to finally hit a Miami Heat game on the nose yesterday. The only player that I recommended was Joakim Noah and he ended up scoring the most FP’s of any player in that game. Tonight, the Heat take on the Wizards and are 6.5 point favorites. The Wizards are 8-2 in their last 10 games and have gotten it done on the defensive end of the floor. Over the last 15 days, the Wizards are ranked 14th or better against all positions on the floor. While I’m not crazy about any of the matchups for the Heat, Dwyane Wade price is affordable on a few sites and LeBron James will always be in play.

LeBron James – LeBron’s salary ranges from 18% (FD) to 23% (DS) of the cap tonight. This basically means that you are going to pay a pretty penny if you want to roster him tonight. LeBron has averaged 25 points, 5 rebounds, and 6 assists in their first two meetings, but he’s really turned up his game lately and will not be happy after his poor performance yesterday against the Bulls.

Philadelphia at New York

Vegas Line – New York -15.5, 212.5 Over/Under
Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Anderson-Thompson-Young-Sims
New York Proj. Starters – Felton-Smith-Anthony-Stoudemire-Chandler

Philadelphia

The Rockies, I mean Sixers take on the Knicks tonight in what should be another fast-paced, no defense style of game. This used to be great for both teams fantasy value, but ever since the Turner and Hawes trades, the Sixers have really struggled to remain competitive and it has taken a toll on their fantasy production. We expected MCW, Young, and Anderson to all have significantly bigger roles in the offense, but other than a couple of games here and there, they have largely been a disappointment.

The Knicks don’t mind getting caught up in a fast-paced game and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see this game hit the over. That said, I’m not sure how many Sixers players are worth rostering. The Knicks are ranked 1st against PF’s (Thaddeus Young) and 7th against PG’s (Michael Carter-Williams). If you want to target anyone from the Sixers, I recommend taking the cheap route and taking a look at James Anderson (25+ FP’s in each of his last 2) and Henry Sims (avg. 19 FP’s over his last 3).

New York

The Knicks find themselves in a great position tonight and I wouldn’t put it past the Knicks to let the Sixers keep this game close. Wouldn’t that be a perfect fit for the way their season has ended? To give up a win to the Sixers at home who have lost 16 straight games? While I don’t expect that to happen, I certainly wouldn’t be surprised at this point.

I can sit here and quote stats all day long about how bad this Sixers’ defense it, but we all know that they are ranked last in the league in every major defensive category. All of the typical Knicks’ players are in play tonight, so it really just comes down to their individual prices and how much exposure you want to have to this game. Obviously, Carmelo Anthony is one of the top plays on the board. Additionally, Amar’e Stoudemire, J.R. Smith, and Raymond Felton should all be targeted as well. UPDATE: Tyson Chandler will not play tonight, give a nice boost to Stoudmire, Tyler, and Anthony

Orlando at Milwaukee

Vegas Line – Milwaukee -1.5, 203.5 Over/Under
Orlando Proj. Starters – Nelson-Oladipo-Afflalo-Harris-Vucevic
Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Wolters-Middleton-Ilyasova-Pachulia

Orlando

The Magic have a very nice matchup tonight against the Bucks who are giving up 102.5 points per game this season and are the 6th worst rebounding team in the league. While both of these teams are at or below the league average in terms of pace of play, the 203.5 point total should give you a hint of the pace at which this one will be played. Both of these teams are looking forward to the offseason and I doubt we see very much effort on the defensive end of the floor tonight.

The Bucks are ranked 9th against PG’s this season, but are ranked 18th or worse against the other four positions on the floor. It will be interesting to see what the Magic’s starting lineup looks like tonight. Victor Oladipo is a game-time decision and the Magic decided to start both O’Quinn and Harkless in the last game.

Nikola Vucevic – The Bucks have had one of the worst interior defenses all season long. I’m not sure if it’s the system or if none of the Bucks big men can defend, but the Bucks have had quite a few front-court combinations this season and none of them have played well defensively. Vucevic posted a nice 19/9/1/1 line against the Bucks in only 27 minutes in their last meeting. He should have an even better outing tonight.

Arron Afflalo – Afflalo would see a small fantasy boost if Oladipo has to sit out again, but he makes a strong play either way. It would just be nice to see him being defended by the much smaller Wolters. Afflalo played 35 minutes in his last game and looks like he is fully healed from his injury that kept him out a few games.

Milwaukee

The Bucks are also in a very favorable position tonight. The Magic are giving up 101.9 points per game this season and aren’t much better in total rebounding than the Bucks are. The Magic are ranked 14th or worse against all five positions on the floor and there aren’t any matchups that we need to avoid here.

The big men situation of the Bucks is a tricky one. Ersan Ilyasova has the best chance to see 30+ minutes of playing time, but both Jeff Adrien and John Henson have been more productive on a FP/minute basis. I may have a little exposure to Ilyasova in GPP’s, but with Adrien’s price rising across the board, I’m not sure he will find his way into any of my cash game lineups tonight.

The guards of the Bucks are worth roster consideration, but none of them stand out as must plays tonight. Nate Wolters is a nice punt play, but may get his minutes cut with Mayo coming back tonight. Khris Middleton has played well in each of his last 3 games, but also could see a slight decrease in minutes with Mayo back. Brandon Knight offers a nice upside play at PG.