NBA Grind Down: Monday, March 17th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-03-17 20:54:22

Welcome to the St. Patrick’s Day RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace

Atlanta at Charlotte

Vegas Line – Charlotte -2.5, 200 Over/Under
Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Antic
Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-McRoberts-Jefferson

Atlanta

Happy St. Patty’s Day Grinders! With green beers and green everything else today, today’s Grind Down will focus on the top plays to make you that green. The first game of the night features two Eastern Conference teams that are battling for playoff positioning. Both teams would like to move up to the 6th seed in order to avoid the Pacers and Heat in the first round.

The Hawks are facing a Bobcats defense that has really surprised some people this season. They are holding opponents to 97.1 points per game which is the 4th fewest in the NBA. The total for this game is set at a respectable 200 points, but that plays into the pace of play of the Hawks more than anything else. Over the last 15 days, the Bobcats are ranked 12th or better against SG’s, SF’s, PF’s, and Centers.

Jeff Teague – Teague is the Green play on the Hawks tonight. Teague is a very streaky player and is coming off of back to back 34+ FP outings. Teague has a nice matchup against Walker and the Bobcats who have surrendered the 10th most FP’s to opposing PG’s this season. In the two meetings this season, Teague is averaging 17 points and 10 assists against the Bobcats.

Charlotte

The Bobcats have won 6 of their last 7 games and are climbing up the Eastern Conference standings. If they pick up a win tonight, there will be 7 teams in the East with a .500 or better record. That’s quite an improvement from where we were at earlier in the season. In terms of fantasy potential, this is a great matchup for the Bobcats. The Hawks have given up at least 107 points in 6 of their last 9 games and are ranked between 19th and 24th against all positions on the floor in terms of fantasy points allowed.

Both of the Bobcats star players are in play tonight, but there are a couple of nice punt options here as well. Gerald Henderson is coming off of his best game since coming back from injury and has a depressed price across the industry. Josh McRoberts is also worth consideration as he has topped 20 FP’s in 6 of his last 7 games and the Hawks have surrendered the 5th most FP’s to PF’s over the last 15 days.

Al Jefferson – All things look GREEN tonight for Big Al. He has a terrific matchup against the Hawks who have had one of the worst interior defenses ever since Al Horford went down with his injury. Jefferson has a 26.9% usage rate this season and it never hurts that the Bobcats should see a few extra possessions over their season average.

Kemba Walker – Walker is not far behind Jefferson in terms of usage rate. He has a 24.7% usage rate on the season. The Bobcats are one of the few teams in the NBA to have two starters with usage rates of 24% or higher. It just goes to show you how much these two mean to this offense. Walker has great home splits this season and should be targeted in all leagues tonight.

Philadelphia at Indiana

Vegas Line – Indiana -20, 203 Over/Under
Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Wroten-Thompson-Young-Sims
Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Stephenson-George-West-Hibbert

Philadelphia

Just when you think that the Sixers’ lines couldn’t get any higher, Vegas comes out and throw a 20 point spread at us. It’s disappointing to see from a fan’s perspective because we know that this game is going to be over by halftime. These two teams played the other night in Philly and the Sixers managed to keep it close, but I’m not expecting a repeat performance. The Pacers are trying to get that killer instinct back and I don’t see this as a close game at all.

The Sixers’ starters could see some garbage time play, but that’s hard to bank on, especially when we want players in our cash games that are as reliable as possible. There is one injury that could sway things though. James Anderson will sit out tonight’s game which means Tony Wroten will draw a start at SG. He is best served as a GPP play, but could provide nice upside for the price.

Indiana

The Pacers are 20 point favorites. Even though this is a dream matchup, the Sixers continue to get blown out by teams across the league and this does not look like a game where the starters will see more than 25 minutes. There have been a few studies on the fantasy impact on players in potential blowouts and the results have been pretty conclusive. Over the long run, it’s best to avoid mid-range and stud players in potential blowouts.

All five starters should play well during the time that they are on the floor, but we can’t count on any of them seeing their usual number of minutes. If you are targeting anyone in this game, I think it’s smart to target the scrubs. Evan Turner could see some extra playing time and has the added motivation of a revenge game against his former team.

Phoenix at Brooklyn

Vegas Line – Brooklyn -4.5, 206.5 Over/Under
Phoenix Proj. Starters – Dragic-Bledsoe-Tucker-Frye-Plumlee
Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Livingston-Johnson-Pierce-Plumlee

Phoenix

The Suns draw the short stick in this matchup. The Nets are only averaging 93 possessions per game and are ranked in the top 10 in terms of total fantasy points allowed and actual points allowed per game. The Suns have really made an effort to push the pace recently, but should see a few less possessions than their season average.

Over the last 15 days, the Nets are ranked 6th or better against PG’s, SG’s, SF’s, and PF’s. With Eric Bledsoe back in the mix, he is taking away playing time from Gerald Green and production from Goran Dragic. P.J. Tucker is also hurt by this because Green is now cutting into his playing time off the bench. The high total may seem nice, but the Suns are projected to score 5 less points than their season average.

Brooklyn

I’m not sure anyone is excited to see the Nets on the schedule, but this is actually a very favorable matchup for the Nets. They are projected to score 105 points tonight which is a full 8 points higher than their season average. The Suns are a fast paced team and that should translate to a few extra possessions for the Nets. The Suns have given up at least 110 points in 5 of their last 6 games.

Deron Williams – D-Will is rarely talked about by the experts. His price is always a bit too high for him to be a recommended play. However, I think tonight may be the night to target D-Will. He has topped 26 FP’s in 6 of his last 7 games and has an excellent matchup against Dragic and the Suns who have surrendered the 4th most FP’s to PG’s over the last 15 days.

Joe Johnson – Johnson has quietly been reaching value of late. He has topped 24 FP’s in 5 of his last 7 games and draws a nice matchup tonight against the Suns. Johnson and Williams have are finally starting to play well while on the floor together and he makes a nice mid-range SG option tonight.

Andray Blatche – This may come as a bit of a surprise, but Blatche has the highest usage rate on the Nets this season. His usage rate this season is at 23.6%. With Garnett out for tonight’s game, Blatche should see 25+ minutes again tonight. His price is cheap across the industry and he should take advantage of a struggling Suns’ defense.

Oklahoma City at Chicago

Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -2.5, 194 Over/Under
Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Jackson-Durant-Ibaka-Adams
Chicago Proj. Starters – Hinrich-Butler-Dunleavy-Boozer-Noah

Oklahoma City

Chicago seems to be a place where fantasy production goes to die. The Bulls are one of the slowest paced teams in the league, averaging only 92 possessions per game. The Bulls are also holding their opponents to 92.2 points per game which now leads the league. Maybe the Thunder can have an edge rebounding? Think again, the Bulls are the 3rd best rebounding team in the league in terms of total rebounding percentage (52.4%).

The Thunder are an easy team to avoid tonight. The Bulls rarely get caught up in a fast paced game and the Thunder are projected to score 9 less points than their season average. Less points scored and less possessions mean less fantasy points available. Trust the numbers and avoid the Thunder tonight.

Chicago

The Bulls on the other hand have a favorable matchup. The Thunder are a much faster paced team than the Bulls and are giving up close to 100 points per game this season. The Bulls are likely wondering why they didn’t get someone to elbow Mike Dunleavy in the face earlier. Since getting stitched up, Dunleavy has scored over 50 FP’s in only 6 quarters of play. I’ll take that kind of production all day. D.J. Augustin and Taj Gibson both make decent plays off the bench. I prefer them over the starters Kirk Hinrich and Carlos Boozer.

Joakim Noah – Noah is having one of the best seasons that I can remember that isn’t getting any media attention. It may be a bit crazy to say that he deserves some MVP consideration, but other than LeBron and Durant, is there really any player that means more to their team than Noah? Since the All-Star break, Noah is averaging 14 points, 10 rebounds, 7 assists, 2 blocks, and a steal per game. He is a threat to post a triple-double every night.

Jimmy Butler – Butler is coming off of one of his worst fantasy performances of the season. He scored less than 10 FP’s on efficiency sites and most of that came late in the 4th quarter. He should bounce back nicely tonight against the Thunder. There are few players in the NBA that you can count on to play 40+ minutes per night and Butler is one of them.

Utah at Houston

Vegas Line – Houston -13.5, 205 Over/Under
Utah Proj. Starters – Burke-Hayward-Jefferson-Williams-Favors
Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Parsons-Jones-Howard

Utah

The Jazz have lost 9 of their last 10 games, they are playing on the second half of a back to back, and they are playing on the road where they are only 8-26 this season. We talk a lot about potential blowouts in the NBA and the Jazz are going to have an extremely tough time keeping this game competitive. The 13.5 point line is generous to the Jazz. The matchup is a solid one, but considering all of the factor above, I will only be targeting the Jazz players in GPP’s.

Houston

The Rockets face a Jazz team that is only averaging 93 possessions per game. If this game is played at an average pace between the two teams, the Rockets will see at least a couple less possessions than their season average. Not only that, but this game has the potential to turn into a blowout. The Rockets are coming home after a terrible 3-game road trip against the Thunder, Bulls, and Heat. Coach McHale will have them well prepared for tonight’s game.

Dwight Howard and James Harden both have decent matchups, but I’m not paying up for them in what will likely end up being a blowout. If you are targeting anyone here, it makes sense to target the mid to low range options. Chandler Parsons could play well considering his depressed price, Patrick Beverley is a nice punt option at PG, and Terrence Jones makes a nice GPP play as he is averaging close to 30 FP’s per game at home this season.