NBA Grind Down: Monday, March 31st - Page 2

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-04-01 19:45:41

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Boston at Chicago

• Vegas Line – Chicago -9.5, 184.5 Over/Under
• Boston Proj. Starters – Bayless-Bradley-Green-Humphries-Bass
• Chicago Proj. Starters – Hinrich-Butler-Dunleavy-Boozer-Noah

Boston

The Celtics are 9.5 point underdogs tonight against the Bulls who they faced last night in Boston. Last night’s game was very high scoring and the Bulls ended up taking a 5 point win. I expect the Bulls to come out on top again tonight, but I don’t expect either team to come close to 100 points. Rajon Rondo will sit out tonight’s game as this is the second half of a back to back. Look for Jerryd Bayless and Avery Bradley to pick up the slack. That said, the Bulls are one of the slowest paced teams in the league and are ranked 10th or better against all five positions this season. There aren’t any plays from the C’s that I recommend tonight.

Chicago

The Bulls really played well offensively against the C’s last night, but this game will likely be played at a much slower pace. The Celtics have been pretty average defensively this season, but are ranked 18th against SF’s, PF’s, and Centers. Jimmy Butler should continue to see 40+ minutes of playing time and should be a nice cash game play tonight at SG. Mike Dunleavy price across the industry has dropped and I like his matchup here. He put up 21 FP’s against the Celtics last night.

• Joakim Noah – Noah is a threat to post a triple-double every time he steps on the floor. In last night’s game against the Celtics, Noah put up 13 points, 13 assists, and 8 rebounds. Most of that production came in the 2nd half too. I love the matchup for Noah and have a feeling he will build on last night’s numbers and actually post a triple-double this time around. If you can afford him, get him in your lineup.

L.A.Clippers at Minnesota

• Vegas Line – L.A.Clippers -3.5, 215.5 Over/Under
• L.A.Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Collison-Barnes-Davis-Jordan
• Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Brewer-Love-Dieng

L.A.Clippers

The Clippers and Wolves are two of the fastest paced teams in the league and this game has the highest total on the schedule tonight. Blake Griffin only managed to play 6 minutes in the Clippers last game due to back spasms and he is currently listed as 50/50 to play tonight. That basically means that he is headed for a game-time decision. If Griffin is forced to sit, give a nice fantasy boost to DeAndre Jordan and Matt Barnes. Both would see a nice uptick in production with Griffin out. Jamal Crawford makes a nice play off the bench as the Wolves are ranked 27th against SG’s this season.

• Chris Paul – Paul is coming off of a huge game against the Rockets and may have to be aggressive once again if Griffin ends up sitting out. Besides Paul and Crawford, the Clippers don’t really have another other options that can create their own offense. Even if Griffin does play, this is still a terrific matchup for CP3. Rubio and the Wolves have surrendered the 5th most FP’s to PG’s this season.

Minnesota

The Wolves are also in a very favorable matchup and Kevin Love would see a huge boost if Blake Griffin ends up sitting out. The Clippers play at a very fast pace and are ranked 16th or worse against SG’s, SF’s, PF’s, and Centers. The Clippers are however ranked 2nd overall against PG’s. Chris Paul has routinely shut out opposing PG’s and Ricky Rubio should be avoided at all costs. Nikola Pekovic makes a nice play at Center, but he is still seeing limited minutes which hurts his upside. I like Kevin Martin on both FD and DK where you have to take a SG.

• Kevin Love – Love is my highest overall rated player tonight. The Clippers are ranked 23rd against PF’s this season and that’s with Griffin in the lineup. Love’s value would only go up if Griffin ended up sitting out. Love is coming off of a very disappointing game against the Nets yesterday and I fully expect him to bounce back in a big way tonight.

Sacramento at New Orleans

• Vegas Line – New Orleans -3.5, 199 Over/Under
• Sacramento Proj. Starters – Thomas-McLemore-Gay-Evans-Cousins
• New Orleans Proj. Starters – Roberts-Evans-Morrow-Davis-Ajinca

Sacramento

The Kings are 3.5 point underdogs against the Pelicans. Isaiah Thomas has missed the last 3 games for the Kings and is currently listed as questionable for tonight’s game. If he is forced to sit out, Ray McCallum makes a great fill in starter. He’s gotten better with each start and posted well over 30 FP’s in his last outing. The Pelicans are extremely short-handed right now and they have really dropped in the DvP rankings. Rudy Gay makes a nice tournament play.

• DeMarcus Cousins – Cousins has had back to back games with less than 35 FP’s, but that streak should come to a screeching halt tonight. Cousins has a terrific matchup against the Pelicans who have really struggled against opposing Centers this season. Not only that, but the Pelicans may be without Anthony Davis who often cleans up defensive mistakes made by Ajinca and Stiemsma.

New Orleans

The Pelicans have Anthony Davis and Eric Gordon both listed as day to day. That really doesn’t help us out, but they should both be considered questionable for tonight’s game. If either has to sit out, Tyreke Evans is the biggest benefactor. Even if Davis sits out, I don’t trust either Alexis Ajinca or Greg Stiemsma. The Kings have a below average defense this season and are ranked 15th or worse against all five positions. Brian Roberts makes a nice punt play at PG.

• Tyreke Evans – Not only is Tyreke playing more PG, not only would he see a boost if Davis and/or Gordon are out, but he also has a recent game tonight. In his last game against the Kings, Evans posted 27 points, 10 rebounds, and 8 assists which was good enough for 50 FP’s. He’s been inconsistent lately, but this game is expected to stay close which really helps solidifies his playing time.

Memphis at Denver

• Vegas Line – Memphis -4.5, 200.5 Over/Under
• Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Prince-Randolph-Gasol
• Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Foye-Arthur-Faried-Mozgov

Memphis

This matchup is great for one team and terrible for the other? Can you guess which is which? I’ll give you a hint: the team with a great matchup rhymes with Trizzlies. The Nuggets have given up the 3rd most points per game this season and are one of the fastest paced teams in the league. The Nuggets are ranked 18th or worse against all five positions this season. Marc Gasol makes a great play at Center, although he has somewhat of a low ceiling and I like Drummond better in his price range.

• Mike Conley – Conley is averaging 18 points, 6 assists, 3 rebounds, and 3 steals against the Nuggets this season which roughly equates to around 36 FP’s per game. That’s not bad for his price point. Conley has been playing some great basketball lately and the Grizzlies are still fighting for seeding so you can expect him to see a full complement of defense against this bad defense.

• Zach Randolph – You can rarely go wrong when targeting bigs against the Nuggets. The Nuggets have given up the 3rd most FP’s to opposing PG’s this season and just can’t defend the paint. Z-Bo is averaging 22 points, 10 rebounds, and 4 assists against the Nuggets this season and should replicate those numbers tonight.

Denver

The Nuggets are a fast paced team, but they play the slowest paced team in the league that also happens to own one of the best defenses. This is not a favorable matchup by any means and I will be avoiding all Nuggets players tonight in both cash games and GPP’s. The Grizzlies are ranked in the top 10 against every position this season in terms of fantasy points allowed.

New York at Utah

• Vegas Line – New York -3.5, 193.5 Over/Under
• New York Proj. Starters – Felton-Smith-Anthony-Stoudemire-Chandler
• Utah Proj. Starters – Burke-Hayward-Jefferson-Favors-Kanter

New York

The final game of the night is between the Knicks and the Jazz. The Knicks are still hoping to get into the playoffs, but they can’t afford to lose any more games. Amar’e Stoudemire had previously sat out the back end of back to backs, but the Knicks need him in there and I would be surprised to see him sit out tonight, especially since we haven’t heard anything about him today. Amar’e is coming off of a great game last night and should be targeted as a value play on all sites. Carmelo Anthony is in play here as well, but I would much rather have Kevin Love or Joakim Noah at his price point.

Utah

The Jazz don’t have much to play for at this point and they are facing a Knicks team that has everything to play for. The line is only at 3.5 points, but I wouldn’t be one bit surprised if the Knicks ended up winning by double-digits. Gordon Hayward makes a nice GPP play tonight, but I still don’t trust him in cash games. Derrick Favors could be great, but just hasn’t developed into the player that most people were hoping for. He has a tough matchup against the Knicks who are ranked 1st against PF’s this season.

• Enes Kanter – Even though Kanter has a tough matchup against Chandler, he has played well in tough matchups this season including two strong games against the Memphis Grizzlies. Kanter is one of those high energy players that is going to get his rebounds regardless of who his opponent is. Now that he is seeing 35+ minutes consistently, he is a great fantasy option.