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NBA Grind Down: Monday, May 8th

by Bryan Pauquette (bryanpauquette) Last Updated 2017-05-09 11:30:42

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Golden State Warriors at Utah Jazz – Monday 9:00 PM ET

Golden State Warriors Utah Jazz
goldenstatenba Vegas Total 206.5 utahnba Vegas Total 206.5
Vegas Spread -8.0 Vegas Spread 8.0
Team Total 107.3 Team Total 99.3
Pace +/- -5.1 Pace +/- 3.5
Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Kevin Durant Draymond Green Zaza Pachulia Proj. Starter Shelvin Mack Joe Ingles Joe Johnson Gordon Hayward Rudy Gobert
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 1 2 1 1 3 Adj. DvP 3 14 5 21 12
DRPM -1.54 0.04 -1.25 0.13 6.03 DRPM 0.24 -0.91 1.35 5.08 3.61

Golden State Warriors

The Splash Brothers were a combined 7-of-29 (24.1%) from the field and 3-of-15 from three (20.0%) but the Warriors still won by 11 points as Durant converted 15-of-26 attempts on his way to 38 points. This is a scary team and it doesn’t look like the Jazz are going to be able to stop them. However, Utah played better at home, which is a positive sign for fantasy purposes as Golden State’s starters played until the final whistle for the second game in a row – except for Zaza Pachulia, who was replaced by Andre Iguodala. The Jazz even managed to take the lead for the first time in this series, getting up by nine points in the third. With an 8.0-spread for Game 4 and a strong Jazz crowd ready to help their team, there’s a good chance a blowout can be averted. It’s not like the Houston-Spurs series has gone more favorably in this regard as they’ve now had three blowout games.

Unlike a few other teams that are continually messing with their starting five and rotations, the Warriors are set in their approach. We can be confident Durant, Curry, Thompson, and Green will push to the 36-minute mark in a close game while Andre Iguodala will likely find himself in the 25-30 range. Beyond that, they don’t give too much time to other guys. It’s certainly tempting to try and make a case for David West as a sneaky option on a two-game slate as he’s played 15-18 minutes in each game against the Jazz. However, he’ll probably have higher ownership than he should – at least on FanDuel – and the Jazz may give another extended run to the similarly-priced Boris Diaw. For what it’s worth, West has turned in 1.07 FD ppm in this series, but his usage has fallen 8.1% to 11.8% and he’d have to push his per-minute pace a little further to be a great value. JaVale McGee, Shaun Livingston, and Ian Clark all serve a role in the offense, but played 12 or fewer minutes in Game 3. These three and West need some garbage time to be solid fantasy assets.

When it comes to the main guys, Durant continues to look like the top target. Through three games in the second round, he leads the team with a 31.2% usage rate and he’s turning in 1.32 FD ppm. He’s also leading the team in points (26.7) and rebounds (9.7) and he’s double-doubled in two straight, topping 51 FD points in each contest. At $900 less than Kawhi Leonard on FD and $1,400 less on DK, he’s looking like a nice deal. Green is definitely the best power forward on FD, but he saw his scoring pace fall off a bit on Saturday. He made 4-of-8 from the field but went 0-for-3 from three. He had been scorching hot from deep and he was bound to start missing a few. If Durant and Curry both take 20+ shots again, there won’t be much left over for Green; that’s why he averaged 8.6 FGAs per game during the regular season. While we can rely on him to provide a safe floor through his peripherals, he’s not going to be able to score 17+ points every night as he had done in the three games leading up to Saturday. While Durant and Curry will certainly take some opportunities from Klay Thompson, it shouldn’t limit him to nine field goals as it did in Game 3. It was his first outing with fewer than 13 this postseason, but he’s been capped at 13 for four straight. It’s a concerning trend for his fantasy production. Utah has done a good job of shutting him down along the perimeter as they did with J.J. Redick in the opening round. Curry has a much better chance of catching fire than Thompson as he’s more effective at creating opportunities for himself – 47.7% of Curry’s baskets were unassisted this season to Thompson’s 16.5%. He’s second on the team with a 28.1% usage rate against Utah, but he’s only producing 1.05 FD ppm, 0.20 below his average. That’s partially due to a dip in points and he could easily turn that around tonight. As always, his ceiling will be capped with Durant playing alongside him, but he’s the only point guard above $6,000 tonight on FD and one of two above $5,600 on DK, so he’ll provide a relatively high raw projection at the position. Of course, he’s dealing with a stingy, slow-paced Jazz defense and the Warriors have an implied total of 107.3, 8.7 below their average, so targeting value at the point guard is certainly a viable play. Iguodala is getting a solid workload each night, but he’s playing with the big four a ton. As a result, he’s returning just 0.69 FD ppm in this series and he doesn’t have much room to grow his production beyond that.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Stephen Curry $10,200 $8,500 1.25 33.4 1.2 41.6 2.4 31.3% -0.7% 1 -1.54
Klay Thompson $7,300 $5,700 0.91 34.0 1.3 30.9 -7.9 24.6% -6.2% 2 0.04
Kevin Durant $9,900 $9,300 1.36 33.4 -1.8 45.5 -5.5 28.0% -0.2% 1 -1.25
Draymond Green $8,800 $7,800 1.06 32.5 3.7 34.6 6.6 19.3% -1.1% 1 0.13
Zaza Pachulia $4,000 $2,600 0.96 18.1 -5.2 17.4 -4.3 15.7% 1.9% 3 6.03
Andre Iguodala $5,200 $4,500 0.75 26.3 2.7 19.7 1.6 13.2% 4.0% 1 N/A

Elite Plays – Kevin Durant, Draymond Green, Stephen Curry

Secondary Plays – Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala, David West

Utah Jazz

Coach Quin Snyder wanted to slow everything down in Game 3 so he reinserted Boris Diaw in the starting lineup in place of Joe Johnson. Although they ultimately lost, they accomplished that goal, bringing the pace to 94.54 from the 97.78 average over the first two meetings. Diaw also helped improve their defensive rating to 109.5 from 113.3 in the first two. In the end, he finished with 26 minutes to Johnson’s 24. It would make sense for Snyder to employ a similar strategy tonight as it was their best game of the series and the only one in which they held a lead at some point.

Diaw is not the most exciting option, but he’s in play on this two-game slate. He scored ten points in Game 3 for the third time this postseason and collected a personal playoff-high five rebounds. His scoring seems a little suspect as his 12 FGAs doubles his previous postseason high and he only attempted two in 20 minutes of Game 1. Overall, he’s averaging 0.69 FD points in this series, but that’s an improvement of 0.10 over his normal production. With Diaw taking time from Johnson, the latter doesn’t look like a strong option. His usage is down in this series from the first round (21.8%) and he’s struggled to 0.56 FD ppm on 33.3% shooting. While he should pick that up, he may not receive enough time on the floor to provide a nice return on his salary.

Even with the strategy change, Rodney Hood received 32 minutes, but his woeful shooting continued – he went 1-for-8 from the field. It seems like he’ll keep getting a nice workload off the bench if George Hill is out again, but he’s a dangerous target with the way he’s playing. Shelvin Mack is looking the superior option in that scenario. The backup point guard earned 37 minutes and returned another excellent value on his ridiculously low salary on FanDuel. He remains $2,500 on the site today, so he will undoubtedly be chalky if he gets another start. The guy just loves playing the Warriors, he’s now averaging 0.76 FD ppm across 179.1 minutes against them with a 24.3% usage rate, improvements of 0.09 and 3.7%, respectively. Those are great numbers for a guy who’s $2,500. He’s tougher to fit in on DK at $4,500, but he’s scored 24.5 or more DK points in both starts.

Taking full advantage of the Warriors’ small lineups, Gobert grabbed 15 rebounds and scored 21 points. He’s shooting 74.1% from the field in this series and has a 20.1% rebounding rate. Over at DraftKings, he’s $7,900, which is a reasonable price, but he may be too much on FanDuel ($9,600) with Clint Capela and Pau Gasol thousands cheaper – especially considering Capela is due for a workload increase with Nene out for the remainder of the playoffs. As Gobert snatches tons of boards, Hayward’s production in the area has declined dramatically. His rebounding rate is down to 5.3% from 12.7% in the opening series. Fortunately, he’s still scoring quite a bite; he dropped 29 in Game 3 and he’s averaging 33.3 points over his last three full games at home. Hayward leads the team with a 29.3% usage rate, he’s producing 0.95 FD ppm and he’s hit 40 minutes in two straight. He’ll surely push it as far as he can tonight in an elimination game.

Joe Ingles received 29 minutes and he could be in line for a similar run tonight. He’s generally reliable for some peripheral stats but he’s used more for his defense than offense, so he’s an inconsistent scorer. He’s not particularly appealing and he doesn’t seem to have much upside in fantasy, but he’s cheap enough to warrant tournament consideration.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Shelvin Mack $2,500 $4,800 0.68 21.9 1.1 15.0 2.2 21.2% 1.2% 3 0.24
Joe Ingles $4,900 $4,200 0.68 24.1 4.2 16.3 -0.2 15.4% -3.1% 14 -0.91
Joe Johnson $5,700 $4,700 0.68 23.6 4.6 16.1 0.7 18.7% 1.6% 5 1.35
Gordon Hayward $8,500 $8,000 1.00 34.5 5.7 34.3 5.1 27.6% 0.5% 21 5.08
Rudy Gobert $9,600 $7,900 1.05 33.9 -3.2 35.8 -3.4 16.2% 0.7% 12 3.61
Rodney Hood $4,000 $4,000 0.73 27.0 -0.2 19.7 -6.5 22.6% -2.9% 14 N/A

Elite Plays – Gordon Hayward, Rudy Gobert, Shelvin Mack (FD)

Secondary Plays – Shelvin Mack (DK), Boris Diaw, Joe Johnson, Joe Ingles, Rodney Hood

Houston Rockets at San Antonio Spurs – Tuesday 8:00 PM ET

Houston Rockets San Antonio Spurs
houstonnba Vegas Total 215.0 sanantonionba Vegas Total 215.0
Vegas Spread 6.0 Vegas Spread -6.0
Team Total 104.5 Team Total 110.5
Pace +/- -2.3 Pace +/- 3.8
Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Ryan Anderson Clint Capela Proj. Starter Dejounte Murray Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Pau Gasol
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 8 12 2 2 2 Adj. DvP 25 26 23 27 26
DRPM -0.74 2.10 0.85 1.25 1.43 DRPM 1.89 -1.81 1.54 -0.16 1.25

Houston Rockets

Since this game is in San Antonio, the Rockets have an implied total of 104.5, which is 10.8 points below their average. However, Houston is a high-variance team that has a wide range of outcomes, so that number doesn’t necessarily carry too much weight. For example, in this series with similar implied totals, they’ve either scored 125 or more or 96 or less – there hasn’t been a middle ground.

The big news out of Houston is Nene’s groin injury is going to keep him sidelined for the remainder of the playoffs. This should provide extra minutes for Clint Capela, who was in a timeshare with Nene. Capela only earned 25 minutes in Game 4, but 16 of those came in the second half and he was pulled with 2.5 minutes remaining in the game. Capela was limited in the first half after picking up his third foul early in the second quarter. Eric Gordon started the second half ahead of Ryan Anderson and Anderson said he expects to come off the bench from the beginning tomorrow. That’s because he’ll serve as Capela’s backup as a stretch five. Based on Capela’s run in the second half in the last game and how they used Anderson, we could see Capela earn 30+ minutes tomorrow. Considering the guy is averaging 1.32 DK ppm in this series, he’s going to be a great option at his salary. Anderson ended up with 32 minutes in Game 4, but he could play less than that off the bench. Even with his improved shooting in this series, he’s turning in 0.68 DK ppm; he’s a streaky shooter and an inconsistent, often disappointing fantasy option.

Of course, the move should provide a bigger workload for Eric Gordon, who scored 22 points on Sunday. He should continue playing more than 30 minutes a game and he’s producing 0.87 DK ppm in this series with a 19.4% usage rate. The downside is he may see a reduced role when playing with the first unit. He’s been very poor with their projected lineup of Beverley, Harden, Ariza, and Capela this season; his usage dipped 7.2% to 15.8% and his per-minute pace tumbled to 0.52 from 0.78. It’s a not a huge sample size (124.1 minutes), but it seems to reflect how he fits in with this group. Lou Williams will still come off the bench, but he finally got back up to 32 minutes last time out. He ended up taking 15 shots but only scored 13 points. Like several others on this team, his fantasy value largely depends on his scoring, but he’s more reliable than others if he gets the time on the court. He’ll continue to have suppressed ownership, especially with Gordon starting, which makes him an interesting tournament pivot. With Nene out, the Rockets will be running smaller lineups, bolstering his workload.

Speaking of guys who can be unreliable, Trevor Ariza is having himself a nice series. He was lit from the field last time out, going 7-for-9 on his way to 16 points. It was the second game in a row he turned in 16+ points, 5+ rebounds, and five assists. Although it doesn’t feel totally comfortable, he looks like the superior mid-range option at small forward when compared to the other options. It helps that he’s responded well when playing with the expected starting five. Including the playoffs, he’s played 124.1 minutes alongside Beverley/Harden/Gordon/Capela and he experienced a usage bump of 2.7% and an increase of 0.05 DK ppm, bringing his numbers to 17.4% and 0.76, respectively.

James Harden couldn’t get to the foul line very much in Game 4 as he only took six free throw attempts. Outside of one game, the Spurs have been very disciplined when it comes to defending him, which has taken away a major part of his offensive game. Harden continued to be quiet on the glass and he’s now averaging 3.8 rebounds per game. The dip in production there is expected in this spot. He was able to post 12 assists, which is the third time he’s hit double-digits in the stat in this series. It seems like he can continue to be efficient in the area, but it will naturally vary with the Rockets’ shooting efficiency. His overall ceiling is reduced in this matchup due to points and rebounds. Similarly, Patrick Beverley’s rebounds are down to 5.0 from 6.2 against the Thunder. He is capable of providing assists and steals as well, so he generally has a decent floor, but he needs to score points to provide a big return. He’s currently making 33.3% of his shots in this series as he struggles against San Antonio’s interior defense – he’s 5-of-15 from within eight feet of the hoop. It’ll be tough for him to do much more on the offensive end, especially if Ariza continues to score as he has been.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Patrick Beverley $5,400 $5,100 0.82 30.7 -2.5 25.2 -1.7 16.3% 5.3% 8 -0.74
James Harden $12,500 $11,000 1.48 36.4 0.0 53.9 -9.2 38.6% -0.8% 12 2.10
Trevor Ariza $5,500 $5,200 0.72 34.7 2.9 25.1 -2.4 14.4% -1.5% 2 0.85
Ryan Anderson $4,300 $5,000 0.71 29.4 -0.8 20.9 -4.8 17.2% -4.5% 2 1.25
Clint Capela $6,500 $5,500 1.08 23.9 0.4 25.9 3.8 19.1% -3.6% 2 1.43
Eric Gordon $4,900 $4,800 0.77 31.0 0.3 23.8 -0.6 22.0% -4.5% 12 N/A
Lou Williams $4,600 $4,900 1.03 24.6 -1.3 25.4 -8.7 28.9% -5.6% 12 N/A
Nene Hilario $4,700 $3,900 0.97 17.9 2.3 17.3 2.4 19.3% 1.7% 2 N/A

Elite Plays – James Harden, Clint Capela

Secondary Plays – Patrick Beverley, Trevor Ariza, Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson, Louis Williams

San Antonio Spurs

Due to another blowout, no one played more than 30 minutes on San Antonio. Kawhi Leonard still managed to contribute across the board while he was out there. Naturally, he’s led the team in usage when he’s on the floor in this series (26.9%) and he’s producing a team-high 1.37 DK ppm, an increase of 0.09 over his regular season average. His usage is down overall from 33.3% during the season though and in the two full games without Parker, his rate hasn’t increased. In fact, he’s conceded the team lead to LaMarcus Aldridge (28.0%). Although he was limited to 25 minutes in Game 4, Aldridge scored 16 points in that time. Overall, he’s turning in 1.07 DK ppm over the last two outings, 0.07 above his average. His price has come back up, but he’s still a fine target as he’ll receive a ton of minutes in a close game. Same with Leonard. Even though his numbers were down in Games 3 and 4 (1.10 DK ppm), they aren’t terrible and he should bounce back at home.

Pau Gasol is perhaps the most improved player from the last series; his usage is up 2.0% and his fantasy production has spiked by 0.45 DK ppm to 1.16. He returned 29.25 DK points in just 19 minutes in Game 4. While he could potentially benefit from Anderson playing a stretch five if he’s on the floor, he might not get the opportunity to exploit the mismatch as coach Gregg Popovich may counter with a small lineup of his own. Gasol’s minutes may reflect Capela’s as they did following Nene’s injury (outside of the fourth quarter). That approach could help David Lee, who picked up 17 minutes last game, the most he’s received since Game 1. He’s been very poor so far in this series, turning in 0.55 DK ppm, but he’s capable of turning that around in this favorable matchup, especially against smaller lineups. Even when playing alongside Aldridge and Leonard this season, he produced 0.82 DK ppm on average. He could be a sneaky GPP option on this slate, although he’s very risky and may lack the desirable ceiling.

Patty Mills was second on the team with 28 minutes. Despite coming off the bench, he’ll continue to play more the Dejounte Murray. His price has increased across the industry – he’s $5,300 on DraftKings – and that makes him a tough choice. However, he’s averaging 0.79 DK ppm with a 20.5% usage rate and he should push for 30+ minutes in a close game, so he should have a nice floor. It was also promising to see him take 14 field goals in Game 3, even though that volume was cut in half in the follow-up. It’s hard to imagine him having more opportunities than he did in the third meeting now that he’s receiving so many minutes with first-unit players. All in all, he might not be a great target on DK based on his salary and similarly priced options. He seems to make more sense on FanDuel where two point guards are required and Curry’s salary is over $10,000 while he’s under $5,000. A Mills/Mack value combo will probably be a popular option though.

San Antonio has been using Jonathon Simmons regularly off the bench, he earned 14 minutes in the first half on Sunday. The rest came after the starters were pulled and he scored 11 of his 17 points in that stretch. In a competitive game, he could still potentially play 18+ minutes, so he’s a potential GPP dart throw on FanDuel at $2,400. However, the opportunity cost of missing out on Kawhi and Durant may not be worth the risk. Ginobili continues to receive around 16 minutes per game and he probably doesn’t offer enough upside to return a great value in that window, he’s averaging 0.72 DK ppm since Parker’s injury and he’s been held scoreless on five occasions this postseason.

Danny Green had shown a bit of life in Games 2 and 3 but disappeared again on Sunday, taking just four shots in 26 minutes. He’s not a great target as he has a limited role with not much upside. Even so, he’s in play for tournaments since there are only two games on the slate.

Dejounte Murray only returned 12.0 DK points despite playing 20 minutes. Eight of those came in garbage time, so it appears safe to assume his workload will be too small in a close game to be worth a roster spot. Likewise, Kyle Anderson played the entire fourth quarter and piled up all of his fantasy points during that stretch. He’s a GPP option for those willing to gamble on another blowout, but he doesn’t appear to be anything more than that.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Dejounte Murray $2,200 $3,100 0.76 8.5 -1.0 6.5 -2.4 24.9% 0.6% 25 1.89
Danny Green $3,900 $4,300 0.62 26.6 0.8 16.5 -1.5 13.8% 0.4% 26 -1.81
Kawhi Leonard $10,800 $10,700 1.22 33.4 4.6 40.6 7.6 30.9% -4.3% 23 1.54
LaMarcus Aldridge $7,000 $6,900 0.96 32.4 2.3 31.1 -2.3 24.0% -2.6% 27 -0.16
Pau Gasol $5,000 $5,900 1.06 25.4 -1.7 26.9 -6.7 21.5% -4.0% 26 1.25
Patty Mills $4,800 $5,300 0.79 21.9 0.2 17.2 -1.1 21.8% 1.1% 25 N/A
Manu Ginobili $3,000 $3,800 0.84 18.7 -2.6 15.7 -2.4 22.0% -1.2% 26 N/A
David Lee $3,200 $3,300 0.92 18.7 2.9 17.2 -3.5 17.3% -6.3% 27 N/A

Elite Plays – Kawhi Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge, Pau Gasol

Secondary Plays – Patty Mills, David Lee, Jonathon Simmons, Danny Green

About the Author

bryanpauquette
Bryan Pauquette (bryanpauquette)

Bryan Pauquette’s peak in life came in 2002 when he struck out live on the YES network in the New York State Little League championship. Unfortunately, his team lost to a squad that cheated their way to the U.S. Semi-Finals, so he feels forever robbed of a chance to go down swinging on ESPN. As it turns out, he’s much better at fantasy sports than actual ones and he’s been an avid cash game and small-field tournament player since 2015. He joined RotoGrinders in Summer Sixteen as part of their alerts and projections team. Outside of RG, Bryan is a television writer and producer based in the City of Angels (he does not root for any of their teams, but he’s thinking about the Chargers because he’s giving up on the Jets).