NBA Grind Down: Monday, November 25th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace
Boston at Charlotte
- Vegas Line – Charlotte -4, 185 Over/Under
- Boston Proj. Starters – Crawford-Bradley-Green-Sullinger-Olynyk
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-McRoberts-Biyombo
Boston
This game features two of the lowest scoring teams in the league. The Celtics come into this game averaging 92 points per game. The Bobcats are slightly worse than that as they are only averaging 89 points per game. Vegas is clearly on the same page as they have the total set at 185 points. While that’s not very promising from a fantasy perspective, both of these teams have been under-performing which means their players are all under-priced.
The Bobcats struggle to defend SF’s and Centers and those are two of the best three options on the Celtics. I think Jordan Crawford has some value as a cheap PG option, but he is a site specific play as his salary is all over the map across the board.
- Jared Sullinger – Sullinger has played well ever since being inserted into the starting lineup. His minutes have always been a concern, but he has topped 30 minutes in each of his last 3 games. Now that Olynyk is out for a few weeks, there really isn’t anyone challenging him for minutes. He is a low risk, medium reward play tonight against the Bobcats.
- Jeff Green – Green has been one of the biggest fantasy disappointments this season. His numbers are basically the same as they were last year when the big 3 was in Boston. Many expected a breakout season, but he seems content on being a role player. That said, his price tag is dirt cheap across the board and he has a favorable matchup against the Bobcats who rank 25th against SF’s.
Charlotte
The Bobcats are at the bottom of the league in both pace of play and points scored per game. They have really struggled offensively, but they have been pretty competitive at home. This should be a close game that comes down to the wire so at least you won’t have to worry about them getting blown out. I still think Al Jefferson is a game or two away from fantasy consideration. He needs to prove that he is healthy enough to play a full complement of minutes.
The Celtics are great at defending PG’s and SF’s so I would temper my expectations on both Kemba Walker and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Bradley and Green are both excellent defenders.
- Gerald Henderson – Henderson usually flies under the radar as a legitimate fantasy option because he plays on the Bobcats and is their third option offensively. But he’s averaging close to 30 FP’s in his last 4 games and has a great one on one matchup against Jordan Crawford who is not a very good defender.
Minnesota at Indiana
- Vegas Line – Indiana -7, 193 Over/Under
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Brewer-Love-Pekovic
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Stephenson-George-West-Hibbert
Minnesota
The Wolves and Pacers are two very good teams that win in opposite ways. The Wolves excel in the open court and win by outscoring opponents in high scoring games while the Pacers excel on the defensive end of the floor and win in the half court. The Pacers are very good against every position except for SF and Corey Brewer is very up and down, making him a tough cash game play. I think there is still value in Kevin Love as he has proven that he is matchup-proof.
While the Wolves are typically a team to target in DFS, their total number of possessions are going to shrink down in this one and they will have trouble maintaining their typical pace.
Indiana
The Pacers on the other hand will likely see a few more possessions that usual. The Pacers only average 94 possessions per game, yet they have a few different fantasy options on their team. Vegas has this as a close game that is an average game as far as scoring is concerned.
Looking at the Wolves’ DvP rankings, you will see a lot of blue and green rankings. The Wolves do not play great defense and there are quite a few Pacers with favorable matchups tonight. I still believe that the Wolves best defenders are their big men, so I’m avoiding West and Hibbert, but the other three starters are all in play.
- Paul George – George is one of my favorite players tonight. He excels when he gets in the open floor and the Wolves often fail to get back on defense. George can do a little bit of everything on the floor and his price has come down to a very affordable level. Huge upside in this matchup tonight.
- George Hill – Hill has picked up his game over the last couple of weeks. He’s averaging over 20 FP’s per game during that stretch and gets a nice matchup against Rubio tonight. He has a size and length advantage over Rubio and this is a good spot for him to top 25 FP’s.
Milwaukee at Detroit
- Vegas Line – Detroit -7.5, 191 Over/Under
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Ridnour-Mayo-Butler-Ilyasova-Pachulia
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Stuckey-Smith-Monroe-Drummond
Milwaukee
The Bucks are coming off of a huge loss and coach Larry Drew promised that there would be shake-ups to the starting lineup. While nothing is confirmed yet, you have to think that he will try to get John Henson and possibly Brandon Knight into the starting lineup. It’s hard to break down this game since we don’t know who will receive the majority of minutes, but if Henson gets the start, I like him as a mid range option that has great upside. Knight on the other hand is a different story, because if he struggles, coach Drew would quickly pull the trigger on him and put in Ridnour or Wolters.
Detroit
The Pistons continue to underwhelm us, but they have a 4-game home stretch in which they could easily win all 4 and gain some momentum. Their matchup tonight is a favorable one as the Bucks have struggled to defend all positions except for PG. However, even with the Bucks good DvP against PG’s, that ranking may not mean anything if Brandon Knight gets the start. I think Brandon Jennings makes a nice GPP play against his former team.
- Andre Drummond – Drummond is starting to play with much better consistency. If you take out his last game, he had 7 straight games with at least 35 FP’s. He has an excellent matchup tonight against this under-sized and under-manned frontcourt of the Bucks.
Phoenix at Miami
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Dragic-Bledsoe-Tucker-Frye-Plumlee
- Miami Proj. Starters – Chalmers-Wade-James-Battier-Bosh
Phoenix
The Suns find themselves in an extremely tough position tonight. They are facing the two-time defending Champs on their home floor and the Suns are playing in a back to back situation. Vegas has the Suns as 12 point underdogs, but don’t be surprised if they get down by more than that by halftime. The Suns will likely be without Eric Bledsoe again tonight, so Gerald Green continues to make a decent value play, but other than that, I’m just not seeing any fantasy value here. The Heat rank in the top 11 against every single position this season.
Miami
The Heat can sometimes play down to the level of their opponents, but I just don’t see that happening tonight. The Heat have won by 16 or more in four of their last six games and may make it five out of seven tonight. The prices for Lebron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh are all depressed right now, but I’m just not seeing any value for them tonight as they could all end up sitting the bench in the 4th quarter. I’ll take my chances and fade this game completely.
Houston at Memphis
- Vegas Line – Houston -1.5, 195 Over/Under
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Parsons-Jones-Howard
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Allen-Prince-Randolph-Gasol
Houston
The Rockets are at the top of the league in both pace of play (100) and points per game (109). They love to push the ball and take quick shots. They are going to be without James Harden tonight so look for Jeremy Lin to get another start and for both he and Patrick Beverley to share the PG duties.
The matchup against the Grizzlies would usually be an awful one, but the Grizzlies are going to be without Marc Gasol which is really going to hurt their defense. The injuries to Gasol and Harden open up a few different fantasy options for the Rockets in this one.
- Dwight Howard – Howard seems to play better when Harden is off the floor. He becomes the #1 weapon offensively and the Rockets don’t mind the offense running through him. I love his matchup tonight against the combination of Kosta Koufos, Zach Randolph, and Ed Davis. He has a big advantage over every single one of those defenders and he is by far my favorite Center tonight. If you can afford him, get him in your lineup.
- Patrick Beverley – I also like Lin and Parsons, but Allen and Prince are both excellent defenders so I am giving the edge to Beverley. He should pick up the slack offensively with Harden out and he will play plenty of minutes defending Mike Conley. His price is low across the board and he should play well here.
Memphis
It’s going to be interesting to see how the Grizzlies play without Marc Gasol. He was their anchor on defense and their run-stopper on offense. The injury gives a bump in value to Kosta Koufos and Ed Davis, but I’m not sure how those minutes are going to be dispersed. The Rockets often play small ball with Dwight at Center so don’t be surprised to see the Grizzlies match them by putting Zach Randolph at Center and playing small ball as well.
The matchup against the Rockets doesn’t get much better. While I expect a role player or two to step up in this one, my favorite two options are Mike Conley and Zach Randolph.
- Mike Conley – Conley has been a very consistent fantasy option this season that scores over 30 FP’s per game. With Gasol out, Conley may have to pick it up on offense and get a little bit more aggressive. He has an excellent matchup and great upside tonight.
- Zach Randolph – Z-Bo is really going to have to step it up with Gasol out. Z-Bo has turned back the clock and has really played well lately, but will have to take it to another level if the Grizzlies are going to keep winning.