NBA Grind Down: Monday, November 25th - Page 2
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Denver at Dallas
- Vegas Line – Dallas -5.5, 212 Over/Under
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Foye-Chandler-Faried-Hickson
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Calderon-Ellis-Marion-Nowitzki-Blair
Denver
The Nuggets and Mavericks played the other night and the game lived up to the hype. It was a very close, very high scoring game and I expect a similar game tonight. Both of these teams like to push the ball and both of them are in the top 8 in scoring this season.
The Mavericks defend PG’s and PF’s well, but really struggle against the rest of the positions. Kenneth Faried did have a big game against the Mavs the other night, but he has not been able to take that production on the road. I think Faried comes back down to earth in this one.
- J.J. Hickson – I know that Hickson was very quiet in this matchup the other night, but I expect him to bounce back nicely in this one. Hickson just got off to a slow start and then found himself on the bench for the majority of the second half. The Mavs struggle against Centers and I’m trusting the numbers here.
Dallas
The Mavericks have a great matchup against the Nuggets who are giving up 103 points per game. The Nuggets rank in the 15 against every single position and rank in the bottom 5 against both PF’s and Centers. While I don’t think Samuel Dalmebert has much value in a fast paced game, I think both Dirk Nowitzki and DeJuan Blair make nice plays against the bad interior defense of the Mavs.
- Monta Ellis – Ellis has been on fire of late and is averaging close to 40 FP’s per game at home this season. He had a great game against the Nuggets the other night and don’t be surprised to see him top those numbers in this one. While Calderon is technically the PG, Ellis has the ball in his hands more than anyone else on the team.
New Orleans at San Antonio
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -10, 199.5 Over/Under
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Holiday-Gordon-Aminu-Davis-Smith
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter
New Orleans
The Hornets have a tough matchup against the Spurs tonight. They are 10 point underdogs and are facing a Spurs defense that ranks in the top 9 against every single position on the floor. It doesn’t matter which way you try to go with this one, that player is going to have a below average matchup. Unless the site you play on has someone extremely under-priced, this one is an easy fade.
San Antonio
The Spurs are just cruising along with one loss and no one seems to be noticing. They are averaging close to a 10-point differential per game this season and are doing it without their starters playing big minutes. Pop has these guys playing great and you have to think that it will continue tonight against the Pelicans. Anytime the Spurs are a double-digit favorite, that immediately tells me to stay away from all Spurs. Pop has been known to either sit or pull his starters in games that they are expected to win big.
Chicago at Utah
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Rose-Dunleavy-Deng-Boozer-Noah
- Utah Proj. Starters – Burke-Hayward-Jefferson-Favors-Kanter
Chicago
The Bulls bad luck continues. After an injury plagued season last year, the injury bug is back at it again. Derrick Rose is out for the season after tearing the meniscus in his good knee. Jimmy Butler is also out for an extended period of time. With Coach Thib already having a very tight rotation, that means that we can expect 30+ minutes from all 5 starters every single night. I think all 5 of their starters are in play tonight against the Jazz. Vegas expects this game to be close which would be quite surprising to see if you are a Jazz fan (Yes that includes me).
The Jazz have only defended Centers well this season but may be without Enes Kanter tonight so you can throw out that ranking. All of the Bulls are in play, you just have to decide which ones have the most value.
- Kirk Hinrich – Hinrich is now the starting PG on a team that is very good at moving the ball and creating shots for each other. I could see Hinrich getting double digit assists in this one. Hinrich is also a decent scorer and rebounder.
- Mike Dunleavy – Dunleavy is the cheapest option of the starting five tonight and I think he makes a great value play. He will likely push for 35+ minutes and has a favorable matchup against the Jazz.
- Carlos Boozer – Boozer is pretty cheap across the board. He will also likely see big minutes, but unlike his teammates, he gets the added motivation of facing his old team. Boozer was a staple in Utah for many years and he will want to play well in front of their crowd.
Utah
The Jazz continue to get dominated night in and night out. When they are playing on the road, you can immediately cross that game off of your list for fantasy options because they not only lose, but they lose big. They were down by more than 30 in the 3rd quarter last night against the Thunder and they even sat Westbrook in that game. I’ll end my rant about the Jazz there. The good news for the Jazz is that they are playing at home where they have had some semblance of competitiveness.
Enes Kanter left last night’s game with a sprained ankle so don’t be surprised if he sits out tonight. If he does, bump up both Derrick Favors and Marvin Williams.
New York at Portland
- Vegas Line – Portland -7.5, 194.5 Over/Under
- New York Proj. Starters – Prigioni-Shumpert-Anthony-Martin-Bargnani
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez
New York
The Knicks take on the red hot Blazers. For whatever reason, Vegas hasn’t been very high on the Blazers even during this hot stretch, but they do have them as 8 point favorites tonight. The Knicks will be without Tyson Chandler and Raymond Felton again tonight so continue to play Andrea Bargnani as a nice value play at the Center position. Beno Udrih and Pablo Prigioni are both below average options though, neither has played well enough to consider taking.
I’m tempted to take Carmelo Anthony in this one, but the numbers suggest otherwise. The Blazers rank 2nd against SF’s this season and Nicolas Batum is such a good defendeer that I’m going to fade Carmelo. The only play here that I’m really considering is Bargnani, the Blazers have struggled against Centers.
Portland
The Blazers have now won 10 straight games and will look to make it 11 tonight against the Knicks at home. They have a favorable matchup against the Knicks who have really struggled defensively since Tyson Chandler went down. The Knicks still have good DvP rankings against big men, but really struggle against PG’s and wing players. News just broke that Mo Williams will be suspended for tonight’s game so look for Lillard and Matthews to both pick up some extra minutes.
- Damian Lillard – Lillard has been very consistent this season and may be a bit more aggressive offensively if the Knicks can shut Aldridge down. Lillard is hovering at just over 30 FP’s per game which is pretty good considering his mid-range price tag. I think he can push for 40 FP’s tonight in this matchup.