NBA Grind Down: Monday, November 6th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Boston Celtics at Atlanta Hawks – 7:30 PM ET
| Boston Celtics | Atlanta Hawks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 204.0 |  | Vegas Total | 204.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -8.5 | Vegas Spread | 8.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 106.3 | Implied Team Total | 97.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 1.7 | Pace Projection +/- | -3.4 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Kyrie Irving | Jaylen Brown | Jayson Tatum | Al Horford | Aron Baynes | Projected Starters | Dennis Schroder | Kent Bazemore | Taurean Prince | Luke Babbitt | Dewayne Dedmon | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 16 | 16 | 17 | 28 | 24 | DvP | 1 | 1 | 28 | 1 | 9 | |
| DRPM | -2.53 | -1.09 | 2.66 | 1.27 | 4.86 | DRPM | -2.16 | -0.10 | N/A | 1.59 | 2.81 | |
Boston Celtics
Notable Injuries
Marcus Morris (Out)
It’s a relatively quiet night in the association with only three games on the schedule. It actually makes for a decent slate though, as there aren’t many standout plays, which should help keep ownership spread out. Many buried the Celtics after losing Gordon Hayward for the season, but they’ve reeled off eight straight wins and have the best record in the league. They are looking for number nine tonight against the Hawks, who finally snapped their seven game losing streak. The Celtics are listed as 8.5-point favorites with an implied total of 106.3 points, which gives them the second best projected point differential (+2.2) of the slate.
The Celtics haven’t exactly been an offensive juggernaut this season. They are only ranked 23rd in points per game. Luckily, they get to face a Hawks’ defense that is ranked in the bottom ten in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. Kyrie Irving hasn’t taken the NBA by storm this season, but he’s still averaging 39 fantasy points with a true usage rate of 28%. If we know anything about the Hawks, it’s that they struggle to defend point guards. Dennis Schroder finished last season with a DRPM of -2.53 and his defensive win share stat from this season is very low. Irving is expensive, but he’s an intriguing pivot off of Stephen Curry.
Marcus Morris is expected to miss tonight’s game, as the Celtics aren’t ready to play him in back-to-back sets yet. His absence doesn’t provide a big bump to any single player, but Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Marcus Smart, and Terry Rozier should all play a few extra minutes. If we are price shopping across the industry, Brown is cheapest on FanDuel, Tatum and Smart on DraftKings, and Rozier is cheap on both. There are a lot of wing players in the BKN/PHO game that are viable tonight, so these four Celtics are all secondary plays at their respective positions.
Al Horford doesn’t really seem like the type that would be more motivated for a game against his former team, but the narrative is there if you want to use it. The Hawks have struggled against bigs this season, ranking 28th against power forwards and 24th against centers. Aron Baynes could draw another start at center with Morris out. In five starts this season, he is averaging 18 fantasy points in 20 minutes per game. If you are in a bind and need some value at center, you can certainly do worse than Baynes.
Boston Celtics Offense
Points Per Game: 102.9 (23 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.3 (4 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: 3.3 (2 of 6)
Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.6 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.2 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -6.4 (28 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.9 (9 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Minutes | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyrie Irving | $9,500 | $8,800 | $17,400 | 39.4 | 33.1 | 1.19 | 28.4% | 53.6% | 16 | -2.53 |
| Jaylen Brown | $5,700 | $6,000 | $11,400 | 27.3 | 31.6 | 0.86 | 19.0% | 56.3% | 16 | -1.09 |
| Jayson Tatum | $5,800 | $5,600 | $11,500 | 26.8 | 31.5 | 0.85 | 15.1% | 63.5% | 17 | 2.66 |
| Al Horford | $7,500 | $7,200 | $12,900 | 33.5 | 31.8 | 1.05 | 17.6% | 66.0% | 28 | 1.27 |
| Aron Baynes | $3,900 | $3,500 | $6,900 | 17.0 | 19.5 | 0.87 | 13.2% | 54.9% | 24 | 4.86 |
| Marcus Smart | $5,900 | $5,100 | $11,300 | 28.3 | 29.1 | 0.97 | 20.6% | 41.5% | N/A | N/A |
| Terry Rozier | $3,700 | $3,900 | $7,700 | 22.6 | 24.1 | 0.94 | 19.9% | 46.1% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kyrie Irving (GPP), Al Horford
Secondary Plays – Kyrie Irving (Cash), Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Aron Baynes, Marcus Smart, Terry Rozier
Atlanta Hawks
Notable Injuries
Ersan Ilyasova (Out)
Mike Muscala (Out)
Malcolm Delaney (Probable)
The Hawks picked up a win yesterday, but few noticed as they were playing a day game in the midst of an NFL Sunday. They are not a team that is bound for the playoffs, but they’ll look to carry some of that momentum into tonight’s game against the Celtics. Strictly from a matchup standpoint, this is the worst matchup of the slate. The Celtics play at the fifth slowest pace and are ranked first in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. Atlanta has an implied total of only 97.8 points, which is the lowest on the board and five points below their season average.
Kyrie Irving has never been known for his play on the defensive side of the ball, but we shouldn’t be so quick to dismiss him as a defender. We don’t have DRPM numbers from this season yet, but Irving has the second highest defensive win share and one of the best defensive ratings of any point guard. As a whole, the Celtics are ranked first in fantasy points allowed to point guards. Dennis Schroder price is still low enough on DraftKings that you can play him in tournaments, but Irving isn’t the cupcake matchup that he was a year ago.
The Celtics have some excellent perimeter defenders in Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, and Jayson Tatum. This hurts the appeal of Kent Bazemore, who relies on scoring for a large portion of his fantasy production. Taurean Prince is more of a stat-stuffer, so I’m usually not as concerned about his individual matchup. He’s the preferred target of the two Hawks’ wing players. With Ersan Ilyasova and Mike Muscala out, Luke Babbitt played 42 minutes yesterday. I have a hard time seeing that happen again. Everyone will chase the minutes with Babbitt, but I’ll take my chances with John Collins off the bench. He has an elite 1.25 FP/min this season and could play 23-25 minutes in this one.
Atlanta Hawks Offense
Points Per Game: 102.7 (24 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 97.8 (6 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -5.0 (6 of 6)
Matchup vs. Boston Celtics
Points Allowed Per Game: 93.2 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 95.6 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 5.5 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.8 (26 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Minutes | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Schroder | $7,800 | $7,100 | $14,500 | 36.1 | 31.9 | 1.13 | 30.2% | 56.6% | 1 | -2.16 |
| Kent Bazemore | $5,600 | $5,500 | $12,300 | 28.8 | 29.6 | 0.97 | 21.0% | 49.3% | 1 | -0.10 |
| Taurean Prince | $5,900 | $5,600 | $12,300 | 26.4 | 31.4 | 0.84 | 18.2% | 53.3% | 28 | N/A |
| Luke Babbitt | $3,800 | $3,400 | $6,400 | 10.6 | 17.6 | 0.60 | 13.1% | 63.7% | 1 | 1.59 |
| Dewayne Dedmon | $4,800 | $4,000 | $7,800 | 21.0 | 23.8 | 0.88 | 13.4% | 57.9% | 9 | 2.81 |
| John Collins | $5,800 | $5,000 | $9,700 | 25.8 | 20.7 | 1.25 | 20.3% | 53.4% | N/A | N/A |
| Marco Belinelli | $4,300 | $3,900 | $8,100 | 18.6 | 25.7 | 0.72 | 18.0% | 53.9% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – John Collins (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Dennis Schroder (DK), Taurean Prince, John Collins (Cash)
Brooklyn Nets at Phoenix Suns – 9:00 PM ET
| Brooklyn Nets | Phoenix Suns | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 234.0 |  | Vegas Total | 234.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 1.5 | Vegas Spread | -1.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 116.3 | Implied Team Total | 117.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 5.6 | Pace Projection +/- | 8.1 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | D’Angelo Russell | Caris LeVert | DeMarre Carroll | Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | Timofey Mozgov | Projected Starters | Mike James | Devin Booker | T.J. Warren | Marquese Chriss | Tyson Chandler | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 30 | 30 | 14 | 25 | 5 | DvP | 28 | 28 | 25 | 30 | 25 | |
| DRPM | N/A | -2.66 | -2.50 | -1.80 | 2.31 | DRPM | -2.42 | -0.76 | 1.09 | 1.36 | 0.90 | |
Brooklyn Nets
Notable Injuries
Quincy Acy (Probable)
Trevor Booker (Questionable)
These two teams played in Brooklyn last week and combined to score 236 points. It shouldn’t be a big surprise to see the total for tonight’s game set at 234 points, which is the highest over/under that I remember seeing this season. These are the two best matchups for fantasy production. The two teams are ranked first and second in pace of play and they are the bottom two defenses in terms of points allowed per game. The best part is that the spread is set at 1.5 points, so the game should stay close throughout. The Nets have an implied total of 116.3 points, which is the third highest of the slate and two points above their season average.
For the first time all season, D’Angelo Russell played more than 30 minutes in his last game. This isn’t necessarily a trend that I expect to continue, but it’s nice to know that there’s a possibility he can play big minutes every once in a while. He draws an elite matchup tonight against the Suns, who are ranked dead last in fantasy points allowed to point guards. In 28 minutes against Phoenix the other night, Russell put up 45 fantasy points. He is an elite tournament play in tonight’s three game slate.
We often think of Caris LeVert as a tournament play, but if anything, it’s the opposite. He has scored at least 19 fantasy points in seven of his nine games, but has only scored 30 fantasy points two times. This is the matchup for him to hit his ceiling though, and a price tag of $4,700 is very playable on DraftKings. I love how hesitant people are to play DeMarre Carroll, despite the fact that he’s scored at least 32 fantasy points in six of his last seven games. I will continue to fire him up in all formats at low ownership. Allen Crabbe is more of a boom or bust tournament play.
The issue with the Nets’ frontcourt hasn’t been the production, it’s been the inconsistent playing time. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is averaging over a fantasy points per minute and draws an exploitable matchup against the Suns, who are ranked 25th against power forwards. He had 38 fantasy points against Phoenix last week and has played at least 30 minutes in back-to-back games. The one starter that I will have no exposure to is Timofey Mozgov. The Suns are very good against centers thanks to the stout interior defense of Tyson Chandler and Alex Len.
Brooklyn Nets Offense
Points Per Game: 114.3 (2 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 116.3 (3 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: 2.0 (3 of 6)
Matchup vs. Phoenix Suns
Points Allowed Per Game: 116.5 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.6 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 0.0 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 106.8 (2 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Minutes | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D’Angelo Russell | $8,000 | $8,200 | $16,000 | 34.6 | 27.6 | 1.25 | 32.1% | 52.9% | 30 | N/A |
| Caris LeVert | $5,300 | $4,700 | $9,100 | 22.8 | 28.1 | 0.81 | 18.5% | 42.8% | 30 | -2.66 |
| DeMarre Carroll | $6,200 | $5,400 | $11,800 | 30.6 | 28.8 | 1.06 | 17.7% | 56.0% | 14 | -2.50 |
| Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | $6,700 | $5,900 | $11,400 | 28.8 | 27.4 | 1.05 | 18.8% | 62.2% | 25 | -1.80 |
| Timofey Mozgov | $3,100 | $3,300 | $6,300 | 11.7 | 15.8 | 0.74 | 10.2% | 57.6% | 5 | 2.31 |
| Allen Crabbe | $4,600 | $4,100 | $7,800 | 18.9 | 25.6 | 0.74 | 16.0% | 56.9% | N/A | N/A |
| Trevor Booker | $4,100 | $4,500 | $8,700 | 22.0 | 22.2 | 0.99 | 19.2% | 52.0% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – D’Angelo Russell (GPP), DeMarre Carroll (GPP), Caris LeVert (DK), Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
Secondary Plays – D’Angelo Russell (Cash), DeMarre Carroll (Cash), Caris LeVert (FD), Allen Crabbe (GPP)
Phoenix Suns
Notable Injuries
None
The Suns have actually played well since taking Eric Bledsoe out of the rotation and since they fired their coach. They have some young talent in their lineup, but this is not a team that can compete in the difficult Western Conference. They draw an excellent matchup tonight against the Nets in what should be an absolute shootout. This will look closer to the All-Star game than it will to a Spurs/Grizzlies game. The Suns have an implied total of 117.8 points, which is the second highest on the board and 11.7 points above their season average.
Mike James!
Who?
Mike James!
Anytime someone named Mike with a last name that starts with a J or someone with a first name that starts with an M and the last name of Jones, I have no choice but to sing the Mike Jones song in my head. It’s more of a curse than a blessing, but I’ve learned to live with it. In seven starts this season, James is averaging 23 fantasy points in 26 minutes per game. His production has been very predictable and I’ve been able to take advantage of it. In an uptempo game against the Nets in what should be a shootout, I’m going right back to the well. Hopefully the higher price point will lower his ownership a little. If you are worried about ownership and want to play Tyler Ulis as leverage in tournaments, I certainly don’t mind the approach.
Devin Booker is priced up for this matchup, but we should be willing to pay a premium when teams are facing the Nets. Booker has an elite usage rate and he should see 35 minutes against the worst defense in the NBA. T.J. Warren was awfully quiet in the first three quarters against the Nets last week, but had 14 points and seven rebounds in the fourth quarter alone. He then carried that momentum over into the next game where he put up 62 fantasy points. I’m always willing to chase upside, especially in smaller slates.
The Suns’ frontcourt has been frustrating, but they seem to be phasing out Marquese Chriss. Dragan Bender is averaging 24 minutes in his last five games and draws an elite matchup against the Nets. Bender is one of my favorite value plays in the slate. Tyson Chandler has already played in the second half of back-to-backs two times this season, so I’m not too worried about the Suns limiting his minutes. If anything, his playing time has been trending upward. If you need value at center, I prefer Chandler over both Aron Baynes and Alex Len.
Phoenix Suns Offense
Points Per Game: 106.1 (14 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 117.8 (2 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: 11.7 (1 of 6)
Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets
Points Allowed Per Game: 119.3 (30 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.6 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.8 (27 of 30)
Pace of Play: 109.3 (1 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Minutes | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike James | $5,800 | $5,300 | $11,500 | 23.6 | 23.6 | 1.00 | 23.6% | 48.4% | 28 | -2.42 |
| Devin Booker | $8,200 | $8,400 | $16,900 | 34.1 | 32.3 | 1.06 | 26.0% | 57.4% | 28 | -0.76 |
| T.J. Warren | $6,200 | $5,700 | $12,400 | 27.9 | 26.7 | 1.04 | 23.4% | 53.5% | 25 | 1.09 |
| Marquese Chriss | $4,300 | $4,200 | $10,000 | 18.3 | 20.0 | 0.92 | 13.7% | 51.5% | 30 | 1.36 |
| Tyson Chandler | $4,900 | $4,100 | $7,900 | 21.6 | 25.6 | 0.84 | 9.9% | 62.4% | 25 | 0.90 |
| Dragan Bender | $3,800 | $3,400 | $7,100 | 14.9 | 21.8 | 0.68 | 10.1% | 49.0% | N/A | N/A |
| Alex Len | $4,500 | $4,600 | $9,000 | 21.8 | 21.8 | 1.00 | 14.0% | 62.2% | N/A | N/A |
| Tyler Ulis | $4,300 | $3,800 | $7,100 | 15.7 | 19.9 | 0.79 | 20.0% | 42.5% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Mike James, Devin Booker, T.J. Warren, Dragan Bender, Tyson Chandler (Cash)
Secondary Plays – Tyson Chandler (GPP)
Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors – 10:30 PM ET
| Miami Heat | Golden State Warriors | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 226.0 |  | Vegas Total | 226.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 15.0 | Vegas Spread | -15.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 105.5 | Implied Team Total | 120.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 2.6 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.1 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Goran Dragic | Dion Waiters | Josh Richardson | Okaro White | Hassan Whiteside | Projected Starters | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Kevin Durant | Draymond Green | Zaza Pachulia | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 11 | 11 | 23 | 26 | 27 | DvP | 10 | 10 | 10 | 21 | 22 | |
| DRPM | 0.24 | -0.91 | 1.35 | 5.08 | 3.61 | DRPM | -1.61 | -0.06 | -0.16 | -0.02 | 2.52 | |
Miami Heat
Notable Injuries
Dion Waiters (Questionable)
This is one of those games that is going to make or break the slate. If it stays close, you are going to need exposure to it since there are only three games on the schedule. If it turns into a blowout, there will be a lot of fantasy duds. I always hate trying to predict when the Warriors are going to play up to their potential and blow teams out, but this certainly feels like a spot where they should. The Heat are listed as 15-point underdogs on the road and they are playing in the second half of a back-to-back. The Warriors haven’t been great defensively this season, but that doesn’t matter much if the starters for Miami don’t play the entire fourth quarter.
When we have potential blowout situations, I am more likely to use players from the team that is favored. That way, even if the game gets out of hand, our players will have at least contributed to the blowout. Being on the wrong side of a blowout is tough to make up. For that reason, I see all of the Heat players strictly as tournament plays tonight, even in a three game slate. Stephen Curry is a better defender than people give him credit for. In their last two meetings, Curry has held Goran Dragic to 32 and 28 fantasy points. Dragic is cheap, but I’ll try to find the cap space to go up to D’Angelo Russell.
Dion Waiters is questionable for tonight’s game, which could open up some minutes and usage in this offense. Unfortunately, this game tips off three hours after lineups lock, so there’s a good chance we won’t know his status. You can’t afford a zero in NBA DFS, so I’m off of Waiters completely unless he is upgraded throughout the day. I do have some interest in Josh Richardson and Justise Winslow in tournaments, as they stand to benefit the most if Waiters is eventually ruled out. The one player that is blowout proof that should see big minutes regardless of game flow is Tyler Johnson. He’s an interesting punt, especially on FanDuel at $3,900.
The Warriors have really struggled to contain opposing frontcourts this season, ranking 26th against power forwards and 27th against centers. I almost prefer James Johnson coming off the bench, since his minutes aren’t impacted anyway. The problem is that we have to pay a premium for him in a potential blowout. In two games against the Warriors last season, Hassan Whiteside scored 60 and 35 fantasy points. If I’m stacking this game, I’m starting with Whiteside and building from there. But, I’ll say it again — I’m only using the Heat in tournaments tonight.
Miami Heat Offense
Points Per Game: 103.6 (22 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.5 (5 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: 1.9 (4 of 6)
Matchup vs. Golden State Warriors
Points Allowed Per Game: 111.3 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.7 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.1 (9 of 30)
Pace of Play: 103.8 (6 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Minutes | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goran Dragic | $7,000 | $6,800 | $12,200 | 32.5 | 34.4 | 0.94 | 23.4% | 57.8% | 11 | 0.24 |
| Dion Waiters | $6,100 | $5,800 | $11,500 | 26.5 | 32.5 | 0.81 | 21.9% | 52.0% | 11 | -0.91 |
| Josh Richardson | $4,800 | $4,800 | $9,200 | 22.5 | 33.4 | 0.67 | 15.0% | 49.7% | 23 | 1.35 |
| Okaro White | $3,000 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 7.5 | 14.2 | 0.53 | 9.7% | 65.3% | 26 | 5.08 |
| Hassan Whiteside | $8,700 | $7,000 | $14,300 | 42.9 | 29.6 | 1.45 | 20.4% | 63.5% | 27 | 3.61 |
| Tyler Johnson | $3,900 | $4,400 | $8,600 | 20.4 | 27.1 | 0.75 | 18.3% | 50.7% | N/A | N/A |
| James Johnson | $6,400 | $6,300 | $12,400 | 29.8 | 28.3 | 1.05 | 19.7% | 60.4% | N/A | N/A |
| Justise Winslow | $3,600 | $3,900 | $7,400 | 16.2 | 22.5 | 0.72 | 13.0% | 49.9% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Hassan Whiteside (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Hassan Whiteside (Cash), Goran Dragic, Josh Richardson (GPP), Justise Winslow (GPP), Tyler Johnson, James Johnson
Golden State Warriors
Notable Injuries
Shaun Livingston (Probable)
The Warriors have the ability to run away with this game, which is always scary when trying to predict fantasy production. They are playing at home, they are much more talented than the Heat, and their opponent is playing in the second half of a back-to-back. The spread is set at 15 points, which is plenty high enough to factor in a potential blowout. With that said, Golden State does have the highest implied total of the slate at 120.5 points.
The Warriors are involved in a lot of blowouts, but their big four are all averaging over 30 minutes per game. Steve Kerr doesn’t mind letting his superstars play some minutes in the fourth quarter, even when they are up 20. It’s worth noting that the Warriors don’t play again until Wednesday. Stephen Curry leads the team in true usage (28%) and he is second in fantasy points per game (45). He arguably draws the best individual matchup of the five starters. Curry is the top projected point guard of the slate if you are looking to pay up at the position.
Klay Thompson always seems to be under-owned in tournaments, despite playing on the best offense in basketball and averaging a fantasy point per minute. I don’t love him in cash games, but he’s certainly viable in tournaments. Kevin Durant has been quiet by his standards, averaging only 46 fantasy points per game this season. I don’t have him as a core play in this slate, which is a bit scary. Andre Iguodala is a decent value off the bench, but I’d rather take a shot on a cheap player from the Nets/Suns game.
Draymond Green feels too expensive on FanDuel. At $8,600, we basically need him to score 43 fantasy points just to reach 5x. It’s not that he can’t get there, but his season high is 44 fantasy points. If you want some exposure to Green, I’d play him on DraftKings ($7,400) or FantasyDraft ($15,400). In his two meetings against Hassan Whiteside last season, Zaza Pachulia averaged 25 minutes and 23 fantasy points. He’s a sneaky value play tonight at close to min-salary.
Golden State Warriors Offense
Points Per Game: 120.7 (1 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 120.5 (1 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -0.2 (5 of 6)
Matchup vs. Miami Heat
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.7 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.3 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.0 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.1 (18 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Minutes | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | $10,000 | $9,600 | $19,800 | 45.3 | 32.6 | 1.39 | 27.6% | 69.0% | 10 | -1.61 |
| Klay Thompson | $7,200 | $6,900 | $14,500 | 32.2 | 33.4 | 0.96 | 20.7% | 64.2% | 10 | -0.06 |
| Kevin Durant | $10,500 | $10,100 | $20,500 | 46.6 | 35.5 | 1.31 | 23.8% | 66.8% | 10 | -0.16 |
| Draymond Green | $8,600 | $7,400 | $15,400 | 32.6 | 30.1 | 1.08 | 14.9% | 61.7% | 21 | -0.02 |
| Zaza Pachulia | $3,500 | $3,200 | $6,200 | 12.6 | 14.4 | 0.87 | 12.0% | 55.6% | 22 | 2.52 |
| Andre Iguodala | $4,300 | $3,800 | $7,100 | 17.3 | 25.5 | 0.68 | 10.7% | 44.3% | N/A | N/A |