NBA Grind Down: Saturday, December 28th Page Two
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Dallas at Chicago
- Vegas Line – Dallas -2, 193 Over/Under
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Calderon-Ellis-Marion-Nowitzki-Dalembert
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Hinrich-Butler-Dunleavy-Boozer-Noah
Dallas
The Mavs are in a tough spot. They usually play at a fast pace, but the Bulls play at a very slow pace and Vegas is expecting the Bulls to establish their pace of play in this one. I think Dirk Nowtizki and Monta Ellis are both over-priced for their matchup. I think DeJuan Blair is in play if Brandan Wright is ruled out, but for the most part, it is safe to avoid the Mavs altogether tonight.
Chicago
- Jimmy Butler – Butler will get a nice bump if Deng is out again tonight, but even if Deng plays, Butler makes a nice value play. He is coming off of a big game on Christmas and he has a big size advantage over Monta Eliis.
- Joakim Noah – The Mavs have a revolving door at the Center position and if Wright can’t play tonight, they will be extremely under-sized down low. The Mavs have struggled against Centers all season and that should continue tonight with the hustling Noah.
New Orleans at Houston
- Vegas Line – Houston -8.5, 210 Over/Under
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Holiday-Gordon-Aminu-Anderson-Davis
- Houston Proj. Starters – Lin-Harden-Parsons-Jones-Howard
New Orleans
- Anthony Davis – Even though this game has the potential for a blowout, I think the Hornets keep this one close and the starters play their usual minutes. Davis is hovering around that 35 FP range, but should finally top 40 tonight against the Rockets who own one of the worst defenses in the league. As long as he can stay out of foul trouble, he is a top 3 fantasy option tonight.
- Jrue Holiday – I seem to be the only expert that likes Holiday lately, but I love the matchup and I love the way that he has been playing. With Gordon banged up, he gets an even bigger boost. I like Tyreke in this matchup as well, but these two are priced similarly on a few sites and for me, Holiday is the easy choice of the two.
Houston
- Jeremy Lin – Lin has scored over 20 FP’s in each of his last 3 starts and will continue to see major minutes with Beverley out. Even though Holiday is a solid defender, the Pelicans and Rockets both love to push the pace and Lin should have plenty of opportunities to make plays in transition.
- Terrence Jones – It feels a big strange recommending two Rockets not named Harden or Howard, but here we are. Jones has a terrific matchup tonight and is coming off of two strong games in a row. His price is steal cheap on most sites and he continues to make a strong value play.
Denver at Memphis
- Vegas Line – Memphis -3, 191.5 Over/Under
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Foye-Chandler-Faried-Hickson
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Allen-Prince-Randolph-Koufos
Denver
- Timofey Mozgov – Faried sat out last night’s game and while there haven’t been any updates on his status today, I don’t think 24 hours is going to change much. If Faried sits out again tonight, that means another start for Mozgov. He has really played well in his last 3 games and should continue that tonight.
- Wilson Chandler – Chandler had a surprising game last night. He played great in a tough matchup. He has another tough matchup tonight, but he is cheap and has been playing some great basketball. He should be able to top 25 FP’s here.
Memphis
- Zach Randolph – Randolph has been on fire over the past couple of weeks and has a dream matchup against the Nuggets who are ranked 29th against PF’s this season. Randolph should continue his double-double streak.
- Mike Conley – Even though this game has a low total, the Grizzlies should see a few extra possessions tonight against the uptempo Nuggets. Conley makes a great play against Lawson.
Minnesota at Milwaukee
- Vegas Line – Minnesota -7.5, 203 Over/Under
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Brewer-Love-Pekovic
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Antetokounmpo-Butler-Henson-Sanders
Minnesota
- Kevin Love – When a team faces the Bucks, you should be targeting the bigs. The Bucks are ranked 17th against PF’s and 30th against Centers. They have struggled to defend the paint all season long. Love should be considered the top overall fantasy option if you can find a way to fit him in your lineup.
- Nikola Pekovic – Pek has a fantastic matchup against Henson and crew. The Bucks are very tall and have a lot of length, but they don’t have anyone that can body up with Pek. He should be able to use his body to create space and he should be a beast on the glass.
Milwaukee
- Brandon Knight – The Bucks are starting to get healthy and I really don’t trust the minutes for anyone except for Knight. Even though he had an off game last night, he should bounce back nicely tonight against Rubio and the Wolves who are ranked 22nd against PG’s on the season. Today may be a perfect day to take him because a lot of people will avoid him after his subpar performance last night.
Philadelphia at Phoenix
- Vegas Line – Phoenix -10.5, 214 Over/Under
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Turner-Thompson-Young-Hawes
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Bledsoe-Dragic-Tucker-Frye-Plumlee
Philadelphia
- Spencer Hawes – This game has the feeling of a potential fantasy gold mine, but it also has the risk of a blowout. Hawes has a terrific matchup against Plumlee and if the Sixers can manage to keep this one close, he is one of the better choices at Center tonight. MCW is also worth a look here, but his price might be a little high considering the Vegas line.
Phoenix
- Eric Bledsoe – In case you weren’t aware, the Sixers are bad on defense. In fact, they are incredibly bad. They are ranked in the bottom 7 against every single position on the court. After a night of bad shooting and foul trouble, I expect Bledsoe to bounce back in a big way here.
- Goran Dragic – PG’s against the Sixers have been my favorite play everytime I see them on the schedule. They just can’t defend PG’s well and they play at such a fast paced that the PG racks up all kinds of stats. Expect 30+ FP’s here.