NBA Grind Down: Saturday, January 11th Page Two
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Milwaukee at Oklahoma City
- Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -13.5, 196.5 Over/Under
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Ridnour-Antetokounmpo-Ilyasova-Sanders
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Jackson-Sefolosha-Durant-Ibaka-Perkins
Milwaukee
This is one of those games that you just want to avoid altogether. The Bucks have not played well on the road this season and are 13.5 point favorites which seems a bit generous. I know that it is tough to predict a blowout in the NBA, but I don’t love any of the matchups for the Bucks anyway. This is an easy avoid.
Oklahoma City
This game has the potential for a blowout, but the Bucks do struggle at defending the paint so if you think this game is going to stay close, Serge Ibaka could be in for a nice game. He should dominate on both ends of the floor and I like the matchup against Ilyasova. Kevin Durant is a bit overpriced with the potential blowout and Reggie Jackson has a tough matchup against Knight who is a solid defender.
New Orleans at Dallas
- Vegas Line – Dallas -8, 199 Over/Under
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Holiday-Evans-Aminu-Davis-Smith
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Calderon-Ellis-Marion-Nowitzki-Dalembert
New Orleans
These two teams played last night and the Pelicans suffered a loss and another injury. Tyreke Evans hurt his ankle in the second quarter and didn’t return. While there hasn’t been anything announced yet, I would be surprised if he played tonight. With both Jrue and Tyreke out, look for Brian Roberts, Eric Gordon, Al-Farouq Aminu, and Austin Rivers to pick up the slack. Anthony Davis makes a nice play, he topped 45 FP’s last night and should play well again here.
- Brian Roberts – Roberts ended up with decent numbers last night, but he should have had a much better game. He got into foul trouble early which really limited his minutes. Roberts may have to play 30+ minutes tonight and he’s my top value play on the board.
Dallas
The Mavs beat the Pelicans last night pretty easily and now get to face them at home. The line for this game is set at 8, but the Mavs could pull away from a very short-handed Pelicans team. That said, Monta Ellis really played well last night and makes a solid play again tonight. Gordon is not a great defender and Ellis has really played well at home this season. If Shawn Marion is out again, look for Jae Crowder to get another start, he played well last night and saw a surprising 40 minutes.
Orlando at Denver
- Vegas Line – Denver -12, 203 Over/Under
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Nelson-Oladipo-Afflalo-Harris-Davis
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Foye-Chandler-Faried-Hickson
Orlando
The Magic continue their road trip and stop in Denver tonight to take on the Nuggets. The Magic are playing in a back to back situation and will be without Nikola Vucevic once again tonight. Vegas has the Magic as 12 point underdogs so there is definitely some blowout potential. That said, I like two Magic players a lot tonight.
- Victor Oladipo – The injury to Vucevic has allowed Oladipo to start in back to back games. While he hasn’t put up huge fantasy numbers, he is seeing big minutes. I think the matchup against the Nuggets really favors his style of play and his minutes shouldn’t be affected much even if it turns into a blowout.
- Tobias Harris – The Nuggets have been one of the worst teams at defending PF’s this season and with Vucevic out, Harris has been starting at PF instead of SF. He has a nice matchup, a cheap price tag, and great upside.
Denver
The Nuggets are 12 point favorites here which is a little high for my tastes. Keep an eye on the status of Wilson Chandler, he didn’t play Thursday and if he can’t play tonight, that gives a small boost to both Randy Foye and Kenneth Faried. I will probably be avoiding the high price tag of Ty Lawson, but Faried, Hickson, and Foye all make decent mid-range options.
Boston at Portland
- Vegas Line – Portland -12, 206.5 Over/Under
- Boston Proj. Starters – Crawford-Bradley-Green-Humphries-Bass
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez
Boston
It always seems like these high lines come in bunches. That’s 3 games tonight with a spread of at least 12 points. The Celtics continue to surprise people though. They played the Warriors very tough last night and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them keep tonight’s game competitive. Kris Humphries makes a great value play on most sites. He’s won over the starting Center position and he has really played well. The rest of the Celtics carry some value in GPP’s, but are a bit too risky for cash games.
Portland
The Blazers have really played well at home this season. I would like to just avoid them completely with the high line, but one matchup is really standing out. The Celtics have been awful at defending PF’s this season and LaMarcus Aldridge should have a field day against this defense. The question is whether or not he is worth his price tag. We saw Blake Griffin post huge numbers in only 3 quarters of play last night and I think that could be the case with Aldridge tonight.