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NBA Grind Down: Saturday, March 5th - Page Two

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2016-03-05 21:59:38

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Sacramento at San Antonio – 08:30 PM

Sacramento San Antonio
sacramentonba Vegas Total 208 sanantonionba Vegas Total 208
Vegas Sprd 13.0 Vegas Sprd -13.0
Team Proj. 97.5 Team Proj. 110.5
Team Pace 102.29 Team Pace 96.36
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Rajon Rondo Ben McLemore Rudy Gay Quincy Acy DeMarcus Cousins Proj Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Tim Duncan
Opp. Season 5 1 1 4 4 Opp. Season 25 29 23 29 19
Opp. Last 7 2 12 14 3 3 Opp. Last 7 26 5 23 19 4

Sacramento

Record: 25-35 — Road: 11-19 — Last 10: 4-6

Sacramento got Rudy Gay back from injury last game and beat Dallas in Dallas, but they are in the worst spot of the night tonight. The Spurs are undefeated at home and have a lockdown defense so this one is definitely on blowout alert, and the Kings have a team total almost 10 PPG under their season average.

The Spurs have been the elite defense in the NBA all season long and it’s reflected in the numbers above. They by far allow the fewest fantasy points per game, and I pretty much avoid them across the board. DeMarcus Cousins always brings that elite upside, but center is the position that is really loaded tonight, and his price is prohibitive. He’s fared alright against the Spurs averaging 21.5 PPG, 11 RPG, and 2.5 APG. Those are solid numbers but not the huge numbers we are used to seeing. Rajon Rondo did put up 48 FD points last game against the Spurs, but that game was in Sacramento, and he struggled in the previous meeting.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

San Antonio

Record: 52-9 — Home: 29-0 — Last 10: 9-1

The Spurs have been untouchable at home this season and check in with the highest team total on the night so they look to be in a great spot. The one concern is that 13 point spread and the Spurs propensity to spread around minutes and production.

A matchup with the Kings has been fantasy gold this season as they rank near the bottom of the league in all the above categories except for rebounding. I was set to target Danny Green as a cheap SG option in this spot, but it sounds like Manu Ginobili could return tonight. I wouldn’t expect Manu to play big minutes, but his return should knock Green back down to the 26.2 MPG he averages on the season as opposed to the 31 MPG he’s been averaging recently.

Elite Plays

Kawhi Leonard

Outside of a slump earlier this year, Kawhi has been the one Spur that we can target with confidence. This is a great spot in terms of matchup against the awful Kings defense and his price is very affordable,especially on DK. Against the Kings this season, he’s averaged a solid 36 FD PPG in two meetings but in only 29.8 MPG. If he gets the 35 MPG he’s been seeing recently then he should be in line to exceed value, especially at his DK price point. The blowout concern is my one worry here but he’s shown he can at least provide solid production in only 30 minutes against the Kings.

FD — $8,400— SF
DK — $7,900– SF
Min/Game —Season: 32.7 | Last Five Games: 35.4
FP/Game — Season: 36.6

Secondary Plays

LaMarcus Aldridge

Aldridge has started to come on a bit and has pieced together three consecutive quality performances. He’s been more aggressive offensively recently as he’s averaging 16 FGA over his last five compared to 13.8 on the season. The Kings are awful across the board defensively and his price on DK really jumps out. The concern is once again the blowout as well as his propensity to disappear at times in the Spurs offense this year.

FD — $7,400— SF
DK — $6,800– SF
Min/Game —Season: 30.1 | Last Five Games: 33.6
FP/Game — Season: 30.9

Tony Parker

His minutes are trending back downwards over the past three games so he’s not someone I feel great about, but the matchup is definitely there tonight. He doesn’t carry a ton of upside due to his minutes, but he’s cheap and he’s averaged just over 23 FD PPG against the Kings this season, which is almost the 5x value we want on FD.

FD — $5,000— PG
DK — $5,000– PG
Min/Game —Season: 27.1 | Last Five Games: 29.2
FP/Game — Season: 23.2

Houston at Chicago – 08:30 PM

Houston Chicago
houstonnba Vegas Total 216 chicagonba Vegas Total 216
Vegas Sprd -1.0 Vegas Sprd 1.0
Team Proj. 108.5 Team Proj. 107.5
Team Pace 99.96 Team Pace 98.92
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Donatas Motiejunas Dwight Howard Proj Starter Derrick Rose Jimmy Butler Mike Dunleavy Taj Gibson Pau Gasol
Opp. Season 28 15 22 24 27 Opp. Season 14 21 30 30 15
Opp. Last 7 16 20 3 30 27 Opp. Last 7 7 18 29 24 6

Houston

Record: 30-31 — Road: 13-17 — Last 10: 4-6

This game checks in with the highest total on the slate and is expected to be very competitive. Both teams have been very disappointing this year but are desperate for wins so the minutes for the starters should be very secure here.

The Bulls have really fallen off defensively this year and the Rockets draw quality DVP matchups across the board. The Bulls will get Jimmy Butler back from injury tonight, which is concerning for me with James Harden. I think Trevor Ariza is an ok option and really love his minute security, but he doesn’t quite make the cut as SF has some really nice options tonight.

Elite Plays

James Harden

I don’t love that Jimmy Butler is returning but the Bulls have been a poor defensive team as a whole the entire season. Also, his minutes have been absurd recently as he’s averaging a ridiculous 42 minutes per game recently. Given those minutes and usage, he’s basically matchup proof (except for San Antonio). As mentioned I’m a little leery of Butler’s return as I watched these two teams meet up last year and Butler really locked into Harden. He held Harden to only 23.5 PPG, 2.5 rebounds and 4 assists in 37 MPG in the two meetings between these teams last year, so there is rationale if you want to play the fade. However, this Bulls team is drastically inferior to last year’s in terms of defense and given Harden’s minutes I still think he’s an elite option, but maybe an interesting GPP fade.

FD — $10,900— SG
DK — $10,500– SG
Min/Game —Season: 37.7 | Last Five Games: 42.2
FP/Game — Season: 46.9

Dwight Howard

Howard has finally picked up his game and his minutes are also up as the Rockets are trying to lock in a playoff spot. The Bulls interior defense is every sort of awful right now, and you can add Howard to the list of centers that are in terrific spots tonight.

FD — $8,000— C
DK — $7,900– C
Min/Game —Season: 32.6 | Last Five Games: 36.0
FP/Game — Season: 34.1

Secondary Plays

Patrick Beverley

Beverley is from Chicago so he’ll have the hometown narrative street exposure going for him. He doesn’t bring a ton of upside as he’s not the prototypical PG and the offense runs through Harden. However, he’s cheap, his minutes are secure, and he’s been very dependable over the past five or six games.

FD — $4,900— PG
DK — $4,700– PG
Min/Game —Season: 27.2 | Last Five Games: 31.8
FP/Game — Season: 19.3

Chicago

Record: 30-30 — Home: 19-11 — Last 10: 3-7

The Bulls are in danger of missing the playoffs but are getting reinforcement tonight as Jimmy Butler will return from injury. Prior to his injury, the Bulls were really struggling but they’re in a nice spot to have offensive success against an awful Houston defense.

Jimmy Butler and Taj Gibson are expected to return tonight, and Derrick Rose is listed as probable (although you never know with him). I really was hoping Butler would wait another game to return as this is a great spot for the Bulls. However, his return throws a big wrench into situation as Gasol and Rose both take a usage hit, and their price points are elevated. The return of Taj Gibson also puts a damper on Bobby Portis.

Elite Plays

Jimmy Butler (GPP)

We’re not getting a price break on Butler, but it appears that he won’t be on any sort of minutes restriction tonight. I typically like to wait a few games before jumping on board with a player returning from injury but this matchup is elite for Butler. He’ll likely see much more of Trevor Ariza than James Harden, which isn’t great, but Ariza has not been the same defender this year, and the Rockets’ team defense is awful.

FD — $8,700— SG
DK — $8,300– SG
Min/Game —Season: 37.9 | Last Five Games:
FP/Game — Season: 37.7

Pau Gasol (secondary FD)

The return of Butler puts a hit on his usage so it’s tough to pay his price point on FD, with all of the other elite center options that are cheaper. However, his price is still manageable on DK so he’s still a fine option there. Dwight Howard is one of the Rockets’ few quality defenders but the Rockets are a poor rebounding team and have been a team to target all season long.

FD — $8,900— C
DK — $8,100– C
Min/Game —Season: 32.0 | Last Five Games: 31.8
FP/Game — Season: 38.6

Secondary Plays

The return of Pau really puts a hit on Derrick Rose, E’twaun Moore, Mike Dunleavy, and Doug McDermott. Given Rose’s price bump, it’s tough to pull the trigger on him with Butler back in the lineup. Likewise, Bobby Portis take a hit with Taj back and his price on a site like DK has gotten too high. He’s still a tournament option, but most of these Bulls value guys now become much riskier than they have been.

Atlanta at L.A. Clippers – 10:30 PM

Atlanta L.A. Clippers
atlantanba Vegas Total 201 laclippersnba Vegas Total 201
Vegas Sprd 5.0 Vegas Sprd -5.0
Team Proj. 98.3 Team Proj. 103.3
Team Pace 99.1 Team Pace 98.38
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Jeff Teague Kyle Korver Kent Bazemore Paul Millsap Al Horford Proj Starter Chris Paul J.J. Redick Paul Pierce Jeff Green DeAndre Jordan
Opp. Season 4 8 10 8 22 Opp. Season 6 19 13 17 25
Opp. Last 7 24 2 27 14 20 Opp. Last 7 1 16 1 23 16

Atlanta

Record: 34-28 — Road: 15-16 — Last 10: 4-6

The Hawks are coming off an easy win against the Lakers night, but have been struggling otherwise, and will face a Clippers team that is rolling.

The Clippers have really improved defensively over the course of the season and have become particularly effective against PG, SG and SF. They’ve faded a bit over the past week against PG and SF, but I can’t trust the PG rotation in Atlanta. Kent Bazemore is a little intriguing as he’s playing better recently so I don’t mind him but SF has some attractive options tonight. The weakness of the Clippers has been on the interior, which also happens to line up with the Hawks’ best two fantasy performers in Horford and Millsap

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Al Horford

This is a pretty solid individual matchup for Horford as the Clippers are 22nd in DVP against centers, and I like that his minutes are on the rise. I have no issue rolling with him here, but center is stacked tonight so he falls just behind a few other centers on my own list tonight.

FD — $7,800— C
DK — $7,400– C
Min/Game —Season: 32.1 | Last Five Games: 34.4
FP/Game — Season: 32.3

Paul Millsap (elite GPP)

Millsap started the season on fire and was a great target daily. However, his production has been really volatile over the past month or so, which is evidenced by his recent game log. He’s showing a 25 point fantasy floor (4 times under 30 fantasy points in his last 10) but a 50 point ceiling. Based on that he’s a secondary cash game option for me tonight, but still carries great upside for tournaments.

FD — $7,900— PF
DK — $8,000– PF
Min/Game —Season: 32.5 | Last Five Games: 32.6
FP/Game — Season: 36.9

L.A. Clippers

Record: 40-20 — Home: 21-10 — Last 10: 7-3

The Clips are coming off of a big comeback win over the Thunder on Thursday night, and have continued to play well without Blake Griffin.

I would expect a very competitive game tonight, but both teams rank in the top 10 in terms of PPG allowed and defensive efficiency so we have to pick and choose our spots. The one area that jumps off the page is the Hawks lack of rebounding and that has been the one area to attack them all season long. In terms of injury, Mbah A Moute is expected to miss this game so Jeff Green should draw the start and Wesley Johnson should see some extra run off the bench. I prefer the Detroit SF, who are a little more expensive, as well as Bojan Bogdanovich, but both at least see increased minutes.

Elite Plays

DeAndre Jordan

It’s stacked at center tonight, but Jordan is one of my favorite options. He rebounded from a couple of poor performances with a big game against a quality Thunder interior. He’s a beast on the glass so his strengths line up perfectly with the Hawks weaknesses. He may not have the upside of a Towns, but he looks very safe for 40 fantasy points here and had 13 points and 19 rebounds in the first meeting between these teams.

FD — $8,100— C
DK — $7,400– C
Min/Game —Season: 34.0 | Last Five Games: 34.0
FP/Game — Season: 35.1

Chris Paul

Atlanta has been very good against PG this season so I don’t love the upside for CP3 in this matchup at his elevated price point. However, I think he makes for a solid cash game option as PG isn’t very strong tonight and the offense is running through him. You can basically lock him in for 40 to 45 fantasy points regardless of matchup, which is a great floor for cash games, but not necessarily what I want in a tournament.

FD — $10,200— PG
DK — $9,500– PG
Min/Game —Season: 33.3 | Last Five Games: 34.8
FP/Game — Season: 41.1

Secondary Plays

J.J. Redick & Jamal Crawford

Outside of center, the Hawks have struggled most with SGs. Redick and Crawford have both seen increased usage with Blake out, and have consistently lived in the 20 to 25 fantasy point range recently. If you’re in need of SG in that low $5,000 range than along with a guy like LaVine, both Crawford and Redick are rock solid options.

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a25smith
Andy Smith (a25smith)