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NBA Grind Down: Saturday, May 20th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-05-21 03:25:59

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs – 9:00 PM ET

Golden State Warriors San Antonio Spurs
Article Image Vegas Total 212.0 Article Image Vegas Total 212.0
Vegas Spread -6.0 Vegas Spread 6.0
Team Total 109.0 Team Total 103.0
Pace +/- -2.3 Pace +/- 3.5
Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Kevin Durant Draymond Green Zaza Pachulia Proj. Starter Patty Mills Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Pau Gasol
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 8 12 2 2 2 Adj. DvP 3 14 5 21 12
DRPM -1.07 2.10 0.85 1.25 1.43 DRPM 0.24 -0.91 1.35 5.08 3.61

Golden State Warriors

Game 2 of this series couldn’t have played out any better for yours truly. I recommended fading LaMarcus Aldridge (which was big in tournaments) and I said to load up on players from the Cavaliers/Celtics game. Hopefully everyone took the advice and is sitting pretty in their leagues heading into Wednesday night’s game. The Spurs will catch somewhat of a break here, as Game 3 of this series won’t be played until Saturday, which will give Kawhi Leonard some extra time to heal up from his ankle injury. Leonard is currently considered questionable and we likely won’t get an update until Saturday. The Warriors are listed as 6.5-point favorites with an implied point total of 109.3 points, which is the second highest in the slate.

Stephen Curry has been unstoppable in the first two games of this series, scoring 56 and 52 fantasy points. The Spurs don’t have an answer for him defensively. Even if Kawhi Leonard is able to return for Game 3, he is going to be tasked with defending Kevin Durant, which will leave Patty Mills and Dejounte Murray on Curry. While his price is expensive on FanDuel, the Celtics/Cavaliers game could easily turn into a blowout, which gives him the edge over Isaiah Thomas and Kyrie Irving. Dating back to the regular season, Klay Thompson has only scored 30+ fantasy points in two of his last 12 games. We typically see him score 30 actual points in two games during that long of a stretch. At this point, he is a tough sell in DFS and I will continue to avoid him in all formats.

Kevin Durant was a bit unlucky in Game 2 against the Spurs. He obviously had a much better matchup with Kawhi Leonard out, but Curry caught fire and the Warriors didn’t really need a lot from Durant in the second half. While I like Durant to bounce back in Game 3, LeBron James is the preferred play at small forward. When it comes to the Warriors, there are four players that can potentially take over a game at any time, while we know LeBron is going to get his in every single playoff game. This makes the Durant fade a little easier, especially now that his price has crept up over $10,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. If you can find a way to play both LeBron and Durant, go for it, but this pesky thing called the salary cap will likely get in the way.

Draymond Green has done nothing but produce in the postseason. He has scored at least 39 fantasy points in six of his last eight games. He tweaked his back and left Game 2 a little early, but is fully expected to play in Game 3 on Saturday. Power forward is likely going to end up deciding this slate, as we have three options that are all great plays and that are all at similar price points. The three are very comparable plays, but if I had to rank them with price factored in, I would go Love, Aldridge, Green on FanDuel and then Love, Green, Aldridge on DraftKings.

There are two injuries we need to keep an eye on heading into Saturday – Andre Iguodala and Zaza Pachulia are both listed as questionable. If Iguodala is unable to suit up, Shaun Livingston and Patrick McCaw would both see a boost in minutes off the bench and would both become viable punts at their respective positions. If Pachulia is ruled out, we could see even more small ball from the Warriors. In Game 2, they started Matt Barnes at the four in the second half and moved Green to the five. It could also open up minutes in the mid to high teens for David West.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Stephen Curry $10,000 $9,100 1.25 33.4 1.1 41.6 3.8 31.3% -0.2% 8 -1.07
Klay Thompson $7,100 $6,000 0.91 34.0 0.3 30.9 -8.3 24.6% -4.2% 12 2.10
Kevin Durant $10,000 $10,100 1.36 33.4 -1.1 45.5 -6.0 28.0% -0.3% 2 0.85
Draymond Green $8,600 $7,900 1.06 32.5 2.3 34.6 7.6 19.3% -0.7% 2 1.25
Zaza Pachulia $4,000 $3,000 0.96 18.1 -2.7 17.4 -2.6 15.7% 2.0% 2 1.43
Andre Iguodala $4,700 $4,600 0.75 26.3 0.0 19.7 -1.7 13.2% 1.9% 2 N/A
Matt Barnes $1,500 $2,200 0.74 24.0 -16.8 17.8 -14.4 15.8% 0.8% 2 N/A
Shaun Livingston $1,500 $2,500 0.62 17.7 -0.6 11.0 -0.9 14.4% -2.0% 8 N/A

Elite Plays – Stephen Curry, Draymond Green (DK), Shaun Livingston (if Iguodala is out)

Secondary Plays – Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry (FD), Draymond Green (FD), Klay Thompson, David West, Matt Barnes

San Antonio Spurs

If you like to play DFS in the playoffs, you should be rooting for a miraculous recovery by Kawhi Leonard. If he is unable to play in Game 3 and potentially in Game 4, this series could end up being a sweep. Once either series ends, it will be the last of NBA DFS until October. Spurs fans are also hoping for a quick recovery by Leonard, but Vegas doesn’t seem to be optimistic. The Spurs are listed as 6.5-point underdogs at home. To put that into perspective, the Spurs were only 8-point underdogs in Game 1 on the road against the Warriors. Leonard is currently listed as questionable, but based on the line, Vegas seems to think that he is closer to doubtful.

As for the fantasy options on the Spurs, it’s hard to recommend players without knowing the status of Kawhi Leonard, so I will do my best to cover both scenarios. Let’s assume that Leonard is active and not expected to be limited. If that’s the case, he immediately becomes an intriguing tournament option. He has been terrific in the postseason and we saw him get off to a great start in Game 1. He ended up scoring 41 fantasy points, despite missing most of the second half. If Leonard is active, he is far too risky to use in cash games, especially if Zaza Pachulia is lurking in the shadows waiting to pounce on ankles. Leonard being active would obviously hurt the fantasy appeal of Jonathon Simmons, who is having a breakout campaign here in the postseason. Simmons would still be a nice tournament option if Leonard plays, as there is a chance he could be limited or aggravate the ankle injury. Simmons has also earned himself extra time on the floor, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him play 25-30 minutes even with Leonard active.

If Leonard is ruled out (which we will know by lineup lock), Simmons would become a must play in all formats. His price has come up on DraftKings, but it actually went down on FanDuel. Kyle Anderson could also see 15-20 minutes off the bench if Leonard is out and he has been the king of garbage time in the playoffs. Danny Green and Manu Ginobili burned a lot of people in Game 2, but their minutes were limited because of the blowout. I don’t mind going right back to the well on both of them, especially now that the series has shifted to San Antonio.

Surprisingly enough, I don’t see Leonard’s availability having a huge fantasy impact on LaMarcus Aldridge. If he plays, that will take some of the pressure off of Aldridge and it will also take away Golden State’s ability to constantly throw double teams his way. If Leonard sits, Aldridge will have a higher usage rate but slightly less efficient offensively. Either way, Aldridge is in a good bounce-back spot at home in what amounts to a must-win game for San Antonio. His price is more than reasonable and he is in a much better spot than he was in Game 2. This isn’t the series to employ old man Pau Gasol. In the first two games combined, he has played 32 minutes and has scored 29 fantasy points. We need that on a per-game basis at his price point.

Last, but not least, we have Patty Mills, who has looked lost on both ends of the floor in this series. Anyone that was burned by him in Games 1 or 2 is going to quickly jump ship. People are going to pay up at point guard or go all the way down to Shaun Livingston. This is the time to buy low on Mills, especially in tournaments. If this game stays close, he could play upward of 40 minutes and he should obviously benefit from playing at home.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Patty Mills $5,200 $5,500 0.79 21.9 3.7 17.2 0.0 21.8% -2.0% 3 0.24
Danny Green $4,200 $4,400 0.62 26.6 1.4 16.5 -0.3 13.8% -0.7% 14 -0.91
Kawhi Leonard $11,000 $9,400 1.22 33.4 2.4 40.6 5.6 30.9% -2.3% 5 1.35
LaMarcus Aldridge $8,000 $7,600 0.96 32.4 2.4 31.1 -1.4 24.0% -0.6% 21 5.08
Pau Gasol $6,100 $5,000 1.06 25.4 -1.9 26.9 -6.6 21.5% -4.3% 12 3.61
Manu Ginobili $3,000 $3,900 0.84 18.7 -1.1 15.7 -2.5 22.0% -2.7% 14 N/A
Kyle Anderson $2,500 $3,100 0.74 14.2 -4.0 10.5 -1.8 13.0% 4.4% 5 N/A
Jonathon Simmons $4,300 $5,200 0.67 17.9 0.5 11.9 1.8 18.9% 3.4% 5 N/A

Elite Plays (if Leonard is out) – Jonathon Simmons, LaMarcus Aldridge, Manu Ginobili, Danny Green, Patty Mills (GPP)

Secondary Plays (if Leonard is out) – Patty Mills (Cash), Kyle Anderson

Elite Plays (if Leonard is active) – LaMarcus Aldridge, Danny Green, Patty Mills (GPP)

Secondary Plays (if Leonard is active) – Kawhi Leonard (GPP), Patty Mills (Cash), Jonathon Simmons, Manu Ginobili

Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers – 8:30 PM ET

Boston Celtics Cleveland Cavaliers
Article Image Vegas Total 218.0 Article Image Vegas Total 218.0
Vegas Spread 13.0 Vegas Spread -13.0
Team Total 102.5 Team Total 115.5
Pace +/- -0.3 Pace +/- 0.6
Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Al Horford Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Tristan Thompson
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 23 29 26 9 17 Adj. DvP 18 11 13 24 21
DRPM -2.16 -0.77 1.57 1.93 0.95 DRPM -4.21 -1.13 1.37 3.79 1.59

Boston Celtics

I couldn’t have been more wrong about Game 2 in this series. The Celtics were only listed as five point underdogs and they were playing at home in what was essentially a must win. I’m not sure if the Cavaliers are this good or if the Celtics have just had two of their worst games of the season. Either way, a sweep is very possible at this point, with both of the next two games being played in Cleveland. The Celtics are huge underdogs heading into Game 3 and rightly so. They have not shown an ability to compete with Cleveland.

Isaiah Thomas has apparently been dealing with a hip injury since Game 6 of the second round against the Wizards. It would have been nice of the Celtics to let us know, but at this point, it doesn’t help to divulge that information to the Spurs. Thomas aggravated the injury in Game 2 and only ended up playing 18 minutes. Many are speculating that it had more to do with the blowout than anything else, but it sounds like he is going to get some tests done on Saturday. I expect him to play, but if he’s out, Terry Rozier and Marcus Smart both become close to must plays. If Thomas is active, he is a risky play in all formats given the injury and th potential blowout.

Avery Bradley and Jae Crowder have both had some success in this series, but they aren’t going to see a full complement of minutes if the Celtics are down by 30 points again. I would lock both into my lineups if I knew the game would stay close, but that’s far from a guarantee at this point. Dollar for dollar, I prefer Jaylen Brown, who is only $2,100 on FanDuel and $3,000 on DraftKings. Sure, he has benefited from blowouts in Games 1 and 2, but he should see 20 minutes even if this game stays close. You also have the added equity if the game turns into a blowout. Gerald Green was inserted into the starting lineup in Game 2, but he only finished with five fantasy points in 14 minutes. I wouldn’t be surprised if Brad Stevens decides to shake things up in the starting lineup again.

Al Horford has really struggled to get going offensively in this series. Tristan Thompson is an excellent defender, but Horford should be putting up better numbers than this. In fact, you could say that about a few different players from Boston. Horford’s price is all the way down to $6,800 on DraftKings, but he has the same problem as the rest of the Celtics’ starters – if the game turns into a blowout, his minutes are going to be limited.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Isaiah Thomas $9,200 $8,400 1.19 33.8 2.0 40.4 -2.6 34.9% -2.7% 23 -2.16
Avery Bradley $6,500 $5,900 0.84 33.4 2.0 28.1 -2.2 21.5% -1.8% 29 -0.77
Jae Crowder $6,300 $6,100 0.79 32.4 0.7 25.7 0.9 16.9% 0.2% 26 1.57
Amir Johnson $2,500 $2,400 0.82 20.1 -9.1 16.5 -9.5 14.3% 1.3% 9 1.93
Al Horford $8,000 $6,800 1.00 32.3 1.9 32.2 3.6 21.6% -3.3% 17 0.95
Marcus Smart $5,100 $5,100 0.80 30.4 -0.8 24.2 0.0 20.7% -3.2% 29 N/A
Kelly Olynyk $4,800 $4,400 0.90 20.5 -0.9 18.5 0.1 19.5% 0.7% 17 N/A
Jaylen Brown $2,100 $3,000 0.67 17.2 -6.4 11.5 -4.5 17.4% -0.3% 26 N/A

Elite Plays – Jaylen Brown, Terry Rozier (if Thomas is out)

Secondary Plays – Isaiah Thomas (GPP), Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder, Al Horford (DK)

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers had some trouble with the Pacers in the first round, but have been an unstoppable force since. They have won the first two games of this series by a combined 57 points and they were both in Boston. They now return home for a chance to sweep the series and head to yet another championship for LeBron James. The Cavaliers are huge favorite here and they have the highest implied total in the slate.

We can make a case for four different Cavaliers’ players in this spot. I generally don’t like to wrap so much of the salary cap on one team, but this offense has been on a tear. If LeBron James, Kevin Love, Kyrie Irving, and Tristan Thompson see a full complement of minutes, they would all have a good chance of reaching value. Cleveland has been able to get whatever they have wanted so far in this series and it doesn’t seem like that is going to change in Game 3 at home.

LeBron James is on his own stratosphere right now. It’s LeBron way up top and then it is everyone else. He looks unstoppable right now and I will continue treating him close to a must play in all formats. When you are basically guaranteed to score 55 fantasy points every game, you take those points and build the rest of the roster around him. Love has also been tremendous in this series and should continue to dominate the glass. Irving is more of a GPP, but again, I like pairing LeBron with Irving in tournaments to get some differentiation in your lineups. Thompson had a huge Game 1 and then basically forgot to show up in Game 2. I wouldn’t mind fading Thompson if we had viable alternatives, but both centers in the Warriors/Spurs series are off my radar and Al Horford is strictly a DraftKings play.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyrie Irving $8,800 $8,500 1.09 35.1 -0.8 38.2 -0.5 32.0% 2.7% 18 -4.21
J.R. Smith $3,300 $3,300 0.56 29.0 -3.1 16.2 -5.2 14.4% -3.6% 11 -1.13
LeBron James $12,500 $12,600 1.30 37.8 4.6 49.3 9.4 32.9% 1.1% 13 1.37
Kevin Love $7,500 $7,500 1.14 31.4 -0.1 35.8 -9.2 25.2% -5.8% 24 3.79
Tristan Thompson $5,100 $5,400 0.77 30.0 2.7 23.0 0.8 11.0% -0.4% 21 1.59
Kyle Korver $3,500 $3,200 0.63 26.2 -6.7 16.5 -3.0 15.1% -1.5% 11 N/A
Channing Frye $3,500 $3,100 0.83 18.9 -4.6 15.8 -1.7 18.1% -1.6% 24 N/A
Deron Williams $2,500 $2,900 0.82 25.9 -9.9 21.2 -9.0 24.7% -3.4% 18 N/A

Elite Plays – LeBron James, Kevin Love, Tristan Thompson, Kyrie Irving (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Kyrie Irving (Cash), J.R. Smith (FD)

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious