NBA Grind Down: Saturday, May 26th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors – 9:00 PM ET
| Houston Rockets | Golden State Warriors | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 212.5 |  | Vegas Total | 212.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 12.0 | Vegas Spread | -12.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 100.3 | Implied Team Total | 112.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 2.2 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.1 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | James Harden | Eric Gordon | Trevor Ariza | P.J. Tucker | Clint Capela | Projected Starters | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Kevin Durant | Draymond Green | Kevon Looney | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 13 | 21 | 6 | 28 | 5 | DvP | 6 | 14 | 9 | 3 | 14 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 17 | 11 | 24 | 3 | 5 | DRPM Rat. | 16 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 4 | |
Houston Rockets
The Rockets have proven to have the ability to hang with the Warriors. The good news is that the Rockets are up 3-2 in the series and are one game away from the NBA finals. The bad news is that Chris Paul will miss game six. This is a big deal because obviously it means the Warriors likely win this game at home. It’s pretty good news for DFS though because I think this opens the slate a little bit and makes things a bit interesting.
When Chris Paul has been out this year James Harden has been a great play, but he has not been the plug and play like Eric Gordon has been. Harden is expensive and should be expected to shoulder the load tonight. I do worry that this is a game where the Rockets give up after three quarters and we don’t get any run from Harden in the fourth quarter. If that’s the case, I don’t want to spend all my money on an option like Harden. I would rather look to Eric Gordon who sees a big boost in usage, shot attempts and production with Paul off the floor. So, I think my fade of Harden will instantly be contrarian, but I understand the risk behind it. I do think that Harden can have a big game he is a star, but I prefer Gordon over Harden and would rather pay for Curry.
I do expect the Rockets role players to try their best to contribute to their best ability and try and make up for Paul’s production. I like how Ariza is cheaper than Tucker and think he will be my cheap forward option that I look to on both FanDuel and DraftKings. If Eric Gordon slides into the role or replacing Christ Paul’s production, then we must look to see who will replace Gordon’s. That would be Gerald Green and I think he is one of my favorite value plays on the slate. They will need him to put up shots off the bench and rely on some production from him and if they do get blown out, I expect him to get a lot of run in the fourth quarter. At only $6500 and $3600 I think Green is an elite tournament play on this slate. The last guy I want to really discuss is Clint Capela. I think Capela’s a solid secondary play but love his price on DraftKings at only $9900. He is just too cheap over there and seems like a great option at this price.
Remember this is a one game slate and I am focusing mainly on winning tournaments. I think the Rockets are going to lose badly so I am looking to find the value with Chris Paul out.
Notable Injuries Chris Paul (out)
Houston Rockets Offense
Points Per Game: 112.4 (2 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.3 (2 of 2)
Projected Point Differential: -12.2 (2 of 2)
Matchup vs. Golden State Warriors
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.5 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.2 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.2 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.8 (5 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Game | Series +/- | Minutes | Series +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Harden | $16,500 | $14,700 | 53.2 | -8.8 | 35.4 | 1.4 | 1.50 | 33.8% | 10 | 13 | 17 |
| Eric Gordon | $10,000 | $11,200 | 25.4 | 0.8 | 31.2 | 2.6 | 0.81 | 21.8% | 18 | 21 | 11 |
| Trevor Ariza | $8,500 | $6,200 | 23.7 | -3.9 | 33.9 | 1.6 | 0.70 | 13.4% | 3 | 6 | 24 |
| P.J. Tucker | $9,000 | $7,900 | 17.2 | 6.5 | 27.8 | 10.2 | 0.62 | 9.3% | 5 | 28 | 3 |
| Clint Capela | $12,500 | $9,900 | 34.9 | -7.6 | 27.5 | -0.9 | 1.27 | 16.6% | 16 | 5 | 5 |
| Luc Mbah a Moute | $6,000 | $1,700 | 16.2 | -12.8 | 25.6 | -12.4 | 0.63 | 10.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Gerald Green | $6,500 | $3,600 | 19.0 | -9.6 | 22.7 | -6.8 | 0.84 | 19.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Eric Gordon and Gerald Green
Secondary Plays – Clint Capela and Trevor Ariza
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors officially have their backs against the wall, down 3-2 in the series and have a must win game at home tonight. I expect this game to be a full blow out with Chris Paul injured and I am going to build my lineups according to that theory tonight. If that’s the case I’m expecting the Warriors to score a lot of points, so I am going to do my best to load up on them tonight.
Kevin Durant is one of my favorite options to spend on tonight. The Rockets can do what they can to try and stop him, but I fully expect a big game out of him tonight. Ariza and Tucker can do what they can, but I think Durant could have a massive night. I also like Steph Curry a lot here because Chris Paul is out. Curry has had solid fantasy production with over 40 fantasy points in every game but one this series. Now the Rockets lose their best defender at the point guard position which could allow Curry to just go crazy this game. Curry is typically a better shooter at home as well and this is a spot where we could see him flash some massive upside. Curry and Durant are two of my favorite options to play on the Warriors tonight.
Draymond Green is a fine play tonight, but I just prefer other options to him. I also think Green is a better play in the grind it out type of games and this doesn’t feel like one of those to me. I just think the Warriors dominate this one and if that’s the case they won’t need him to be grinding defensively all game long and he can take more of a backseat tonight. Sure, early on they will bring a lot of intense defense but like I said I think this game is a blow out and you won’t need 48 minutes of Draymond Green racking up defensive stats. Klay Thompson is never a fun roster, but I don’t hate him on this slate. He shoots better at home, he has a cheap price tag and he should get a ton of run in the fourth quarter with the blow out unit. Again, I am trying to predict how this game will go and if the Warriors blow the Rockets out we will get a lot of Klay in the fourth quarter with the second unit. Sure, he defers a ton, but those points can add up at the end and help us out. If you want one value play on the Warriors I would look to Kevon Looney. He has been the best value play on the Warriors and I don’t think he is an elite value by any means but if you are looking for one, Looney is your guy.
Notable Injuries Andre Iguodala (questionable)
Golden State Warriors Offense
Points Per Game: 113.5 (1 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 112.3 (1 of 2)
Projected Point Differential: -1.3 (1 of 2)
Matchup vs. Houston Rockets
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.9 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.8 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.1 (8 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.7 (14 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Game | Series +/- | Minutes | Series +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | $14,500 | $13,300 | 44.1 | -1.4 | 32.0 | 4.7 | 1.38 | 28.1% | 5 | 6 | 16 |
| Klay Thompson | $10,500 | $8,700 | 30.4 | -5.6 | 34.3 | 4.9 | 0.89 | 20.7% | 8 | 14 | 12 |
| Kevin Durant | $15,500 | $13,500 | 47.2 | -6.4 | 34.2 | 4.6 | 1.38 | 26.9% | 19 | 9 | 10 |
| Draymond Green | $13,500 | $12,100 | 36.0 | 2.3 | 32.7 | 7.0 | 1.10 | 16.7% | 4 | 3 | 8 |
| Kevon Looney | $7,000 | $3,800 | 12.3 | 1.9 | 13.8 | 6.1 | 0.89 | 11.0% | 9 | 14 | 4 |
| Shaun Livingston | $6,500 | $2,900 | 12.3 | -1.5 | 15.9 | 0.4 | 0.77 | 15.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Nick Young | $6,000 | $1,500 | 11.3 | -5.3 | 17.4 | -4.7 | 0.65 | 15.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Jordan Bell | $6,500 | $2,100 | 15.5 | -5.7 | 14.2 | -2.3 | 1.09 | 12.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry
Secondary Plays – Klay Thompson and Kevon Looney