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NBA Grind Down: Saturday, November 14th

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-11-15 04:04:21

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Detroit at L.A. Clippers – 03:30 PM

Detroit L.A. Clippers
detroitnba Vegas Total 201 laclippersnba Vegas Total 201
Vegas Sprd 3.5 Vegas Sprd -3.5
Team Proj. 98.8 Team Proj. 102.3
Team Pace 98.07 Team Pace 101.48
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Ersan Ilyasova Andre Drummond Proj Starter Chris Paul Jamal Crawford Lance Stephenson Blake Griffin DeAndre Jordan
Opp. Season 10 28 15 15 20 Opp. Season 12 13 6 22 1
Opp. Last 7 5 30 5 26 16 Opp. Last 7 28 14 11 28 4

Detroit

The Pistons head on the road to face a Clippers team that can really score the ball, but play at a solid pace and don’t play great defense. The Pistons appear to be healthy heading into this game, and outside of Ersan Ilyasova, all of their starters typically play big minutes, so they are solid targets.

Chris Paul is dealing with a balky hamstring and may not even play in this matchup, which is a big matchup upgrade for Jackson. Jackson hasn’t played great the past two games, but he’s shown the ability to post big fantasy lines and has the fifth highest usage rate among guards. Austin Rivers is a big step down from Paul defensively, and Paul is unlikely to be 100% so Jackson makes for a fine option in the all day slate. The headliner for the Pistons is clearly Andre Drummond, who is practically averaging 20 points and 20 rebounds a game to start the season. The Clippers struggled defensively against centers last season, and that has been the case this year as well. He’s the top center on the day and will be a very popular play for those playing the all-day slate.

Outside of Drummond and Jackson, Marcus Morris and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are fine secondary options due to their minute security. Caldwell-Pope plays a ton of minutes but can be a volatile option due to the fact that he contributes in very few categories outside of scoring. As a result, if his shot isn’t falling, he’ll put up a disappointing fantasy line. Marcus Morris has been surprisingly effective this season for the Pistons, but his price is on the rise, and the Clippers have defended the SF position fairly well. Ersan Ilyasova is the one Detroit starter who doesn’t play heavy minutes as Stanley Johnson plays solid minutes off the bench and Marcus Morris can slide to the PF. Johnson has hit 5x salary in each of his past two games, is returning home to California. If you’re in dire need of a SF punt, you could give him a look, but I don’t think it’s a necessary route to take today as he’s very volatile.

Elite Plays

Andre Drummond

FD: $9,700 — DK: $9,500
Min/Game: 37.1 — Usage Rate: 23.80%

Reggie Jackson

FD: $8,000 — DK: $7,400
Min/Game: 32.4 — Usage Rate: 32.00%

Secondary Plays

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

FD: $5,100 — DK: $5,100
Min/Game: 38.2 — Usage Rate: 17.20%

Marcus Morris

FD: $6,100 — DK: $6,300
Min/Game: 38.3 — Usage Rate: 20.30%

L.A. Clippers

The Clippers are a three-point favorite with a solid team total of 102 points. The issue to watch here is that they are likely to be without their starting backcourt. Chris Paul is listed as doubtful, and JJ Redick is listed as out. Austin Rivers and Pablo Prigioni drew the start last game, which was a surprise in regards to Prigioni, so you’ll need to double check as to the starting lineup.

With Chris Paul out, this entire offense should flow through Blake Griffin. He should destroy Ersan Ilyasova to start the game, and will have a solid size advantage over any other PF the Pistons throw at him. He was on his way to a big game on Thursday, but received two technical fouls and was ejected in the second quarter. I wouldn’t expect that to occur again, and although the Pistons have been solid defensively this year, they’ve struggled against PFs and Griffin’s usage should be very high.

Deandre Jordan had a rough offseason and has struggled to start the year. He’s only averaging around 30 MPG, but with Drummond on the other side, he could see a minutes boost here in attempt to somewhat contain Drummond. Detroit has been great against centers though so he’s a GPP only play.

While most figured that Austin Rivers and Jamal Crawford would draw the start with Paul and Reddick out, it was actually Rivers and Pablo Prigioni, and it’s unclear if that is the route the Clippers will take today. Prigioni isn’t a viable fantasy alternative even if he starts, and Crawford did attempt 14 FGA in 29 minutes off the bench. He finally shot the ball well and would be my preferred punt option. Austin Rivers should play 30 minutes so maybe his minutes can lead to him paying off his cheap tag, but overall, he’s just not a great NBA player. The Clippers have a lot of depth on the wing so Paul Pierce, Wesley Johnson, and Lance Stephenson have been very unsteady options on the season and are very risky.

Elite Plays

Blake Griffin

FD: $9,700 — DK: $9,300
Min/Game: 33.1 — Usage Rate: 30.60%

Secondary Plays

Deandre Jordan

FD: $7,600 — DK: $7,500
Min/Game: 30.6 — Usage Rate: 13.50%

Jamal Crawford

FD: $4,400 — DK: $3,800
Min/Game: 22.1 — Usage Rate: 22.50%

Austin Rivers

FD: $3,800 — DK: $3,200
Min/Game: 23.2 — Usage Rate: 18.80%

Late games coming soon!

About the Author

a25smith
Andy Smith (a25smith)