NBA Grind Down: Sunday, March 23rd
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace
Atlanta at Toronto
- Vegas Line – Toronto -6.5, 204 Over/Under
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Antic
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-Derozan-Ross-Johnson-Valanciunas
Atlanta
Sunday Funday! We have 7 games on the schedule today including two early ones. This game tips off at 1:00 ET so those of you on the West Coast may not be awake by the time this one tips off. The Hawks are 6.5 point underdogs tonight against the Raptors in what will be a pace-down game for the Hawks. The Raptors like to slow the tempo down and impose their defense on opponents.
The Raptors are holding opponents to 97.8 points per game this season which is the 8th fewest in the NBA. These two teams played on Tuesday and Paul Millsap posted a triple-double. Jeff Teague also had great success in that game with 34 points and 5 assists. I don’t think we can expect a repeat performance from either though. That game was played at an extremely fast pace and ended up going into overtime.
- DeMarre Carroll – Carroll has very quietly been a great fantasy option over the last two weeks. Carroll can do everything on the floor well and you are guaranteed 36+ minutes from him in every start. He’s topped 23 FP’s in 5 of his last 6 games and has been a threat from beyond the arc. If you want to target someone from the Hawks, Carroll is a safe play.
Toronto
The Raptors have a very nice matchup today against the uptempo Hawks. The Hawks average 97 possessions per game and are giving up an average of 102.4 points per game. Both of which bode well for the Hawks’ fantasy value. If you look at the DvP rankings of the Hawks, they are ranked between 19th and 23rd against all five positions on the floor. Basically, they don’t defend any position well.
Patrick Patterson will miss another game which means Amir Johnson and Jonas Valanciunas will continue to see extended minutes. Of the two, I like Valanciunas a bit more just due to the fact that Amir isn’t Center eligible on most sites and there are quite a few PF options today. Terrence Ross injured his hip, but practiced yesterday and is expected to be fine for today’s game.
- Kyle Lowry – Other than Joakim Noah, Lowry is as much of a threat to post a triple-double as anyone in the league. He is one of the best rebounding guards in the league and he cracks double-digit points and assists without even breaking a sweat. Lowry posted 20 points, 9 rebounds, and 7 assists in their last meeting. Lowry has also scored at least 19 actual points in 8 straight games.
- DeMar DeRozan – DeRozan owns the Hawks. Well technically he doesn’t own them, but he sure plays well against them. In 3 games against them this season, DeRozan is averaging 30 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 assists. He could very well reach value on points alone. He has topped 37 FP’s in each of his last 4 games and should keep his hot streak going tonight.
Phoenix at Minnesota
- Vegas Line – Minnesota -3, 218 Over/Under
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Dragic-Bledsoe-Tucker-Frye-Plumlee
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Brewer-Love-Dieng
Phoenix
If you are playing in early leagues today, target this game heavily. This game features the highest total on the schedule today. Both of these teams like to push the tempo and both teams are below average defensively. The Wolves are giving up 103.1 points per game which is the 7th most in the NBA. They are also ranked 26th against PG’s, SG’s, and SF’s in fantasy points allowed. Eric Bledsoe makes a nice tournament play today, but he has yet to reach the 40 FP mark since coming back from injury.
- Goran Dragic – The Dragon has seen a big cut in his production ever since Bledsoe returned from his injury. The minutes are still there, but his numbers are down across the board. I think we will see Dragic settle into around 30 FP’s per game going forward. His price has come down across the industry and this is a nice spot to buy low on him. He has a terrific matchup against Rubio and the Wolves who have surrendered the 5th most FP’s to PG’s this season.
- Markieff Morris – It would be nice to see Morris play a consistent 30 minutes per night, but that’s just not the case. It seems like he either plays between 25-28 minutes or between 32-35 minutes. I think he will see closer to the latter in this one and Channing Frye will have his hands full with K-Love. Frye will either get into foul trouble or be ineffective on the defensive end. Morris has topped 29 FP’s in 4 of his last 6 games.
Minnesota
The Wolves will likely be without Nikola Pekovic again today as he is listed as doubtful. The Wolves have not missed Pek at all though as rookie Gorgui Dieng has become a fantasy superstar overnight. In his 3 starts with Pek out, Dieng has 38, 29, and 56 fantasy points. His price on DS may be a little too pricey, but he makes a great play on the other major DFS sites.
The Suns are giving up 102.7 points per game this season and have struggled to defend PG’s and PF’s. Ricky Rubio makes a nice tournament play, but his fantasy production is wildly inconsistent and you want to target players that have a high floor for cash games. Kevin Martin makes a decent play at SG, the Suns have dropped in the DvP rankings since Bledsoe took over as the starting SG.
- Kevin Love – In two meetings against the Suns, Love is averaging 24 points, 12 rebounds, and 5 assists. Those numbers are very close to his season averages. While I LOVE the matchup for him, his rebound totals have been down with Dieng in the lineup. It’s hard to tell if that will continue going forward or if it is just a glitch in the matrix. Love is the top overall fantasy option tonight.
Washington at Denver
- Vegas Line – Denver -1.5, 215.5 Over/Under
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Ariza-Booker-Gortat
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Foye-Chandler-Faried-Mozgov
Washington
Denver is the last stop on the Wizards 4-game road trip. The Wizards are coming off of a big offensive outing against the Lakers and get to face a Nuggets defense that is almost as bad. The Nuggets are giving up the 3rd most points per game and are ranked 16th or worse against all five positions on the floor. There are a few viable fantasy options in this matchup. Bradley Beal continues to post solid game logs, but he just doesn’t seem to have that high ceiling that most of us keep waiting for. Marcin Gortat has a great matchup down low against the Denver bigs. Drew Gooden is also in play off the bench. He has averaged well over a FP per minute and could see anywhere from 20-30 minutes tonight.
- John Wall – Wall has topped 49 FP’s in 3 of his last 4 games and has a great shot of reaching that mark again tonight against the Nuggets. The Nuggets really struggle to defend in transition and that’s where Wall is at his best. He should have no problem attacking the rim and creating easy shots for his teammates.
- Trevor Ariza – In his last 6 games, Ariza’s FP production has ranged from 9 to 42. That’s not typically the type of consistency that I like to see from players that I target for cash games, but a depressed price and a terrific matchup have me drinking the Kool-Aid. Ariza plays well in uptempo games and should be able to force some turnovers and get out in transition against this Nuggets team.
Denver
The Wizards have a defense that is basically in the middle of the pack. They are giving up just over 100 points per game and have been stout at defending SG’s, PF’s, and Centers this season. That said, the Nuggets are expected to score 108 points tonight and I will definitely have some exposure to their two best fantasy players. Randy Foye makes a decent tournament play and Wilson Chandler price is depressed making him an interesting play at SF.
- Ty Lawson – Lawson is averaging close to 37 FP’s per game at home this season and has a nice matchup tonight against the Wizards who have been average against PG’s this season. Lawson will look to push the pace and should be able to post a double-double in this one. If he can add a couple of steals to his stat line, he will have a great fantasy outing.
- Kenneth Faried – Faried has been on fire this month, but has played less than 31 minutes in 3 of his last 5 games. Hopefully that is not a trend that will continue going forward. Faried has great home splits as he seems to have another level of energy when playing in front of his home crowd. I don’t mind the matchup and think he is in for a nice bounce back game after a quiet outing in Dallas.
Milwaukee at Sacramento
- Vegas Line – Sacramento -8, 205 Over/Under
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Wolters-Middleton-Ilyasova-Pachulia
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – Thomas-McLemore-Gay-Evans-Cousins
Milwaukee
The Bucks are 8 point underdogs tonight against the Kings, but this is a nice matchup in terms of potential fantasy production. The Kings are giving up 103.5 points per game this season and are ranked 15th or worse against all five positions on the floor. Khris Middleton makes a nice punt play at SF, he is averaging over 20 FP’s per game over the last 15 days. Ersan Ilyasova makes a nice GPP play, he has a high ceiling for a player in his price range.
- Brandon Knight – The Kings have been surprisingly stingy against PG’s recently, but that doesn’t concern me for Knight’s matchup. IT2 is not a great defender and Knight has a very nice size advantage over him. Knight is one of the better rebounding guards in the league and should have a solid all-around game tonight.
Sacramento
The Kings have a terrific matchup tonight against the Bucks. It’s going to be very hard to fade DeMarcus Cousins against this weak interior defense that also happens to be one of the worst rebounding teams in the league. The Bucks have defended PG’s well this season, but are ranked 21st or worse against the other 4 positions on the floor. Of the two PG’s in this game, I prefer Knight over IT2 as he is cheaper and has the better matchup.
- DeMarcus Cousins – Cousins was a late scratch last Sunday which cost a lot of people. It may be hard to forget about that if you were one of those people, but you have to be able to move past it. Cousins has no reason not to suit up today and he has the matchup of the millennium. No one on the Bucks can defend him and he could easily have a 25 point and 20 rebound performance.
- Rudy Gay – Rudy is a terrific play tonight. He has a nice ceiling and his price is very affordable across the industry. The Bucks are ranked 25th against SF’s this season and Gay has nice upside for his price. I’m going out on a limb and predicting a 35+ FP outing from him tonight.
Brooklyn at Dallas
- Vegas Line – Dallas -4, 206 Over/Under
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Livingston-Johnson-Pierce-Plumlee
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Calderon-Ellis-Marion-Nowitzki-Dalembert
Brooklyn
The Nets have a decent matchup against the Mavericks, but neither of these teams have been great to target in DFS. They are both well rounded teams that get production from a number of different players. The Nets have had solid contributions from all five starters as well as Andray Blatche and Marcus Thornton off the bench. Mason Plumlee has really stepped up his play with Garnett out, he makes a nice punt option at Center tonight. Shaun Livingston also makes a nice punt option, he has been very consistent over the last few weeks.
Dallas
This is not a great matchup for the Mavericks. Even though the total is set at 206 points, the Nets like to slow the pace of the game down and own a top 10 defense this season. Dirk Nowitzki is under-priced across the industry, but he his ceiling just hasn’t been that high and he hasn’t had a very high floor recently either. Shawn Marion makes a decent punt play at SF, but I really don’t see any fantasy options that stand out in this game.