NBA Grind Down: Sunday, May 14th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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San Antonio Spurs at Golden State Warriors – 3:30 PM ET
San Antonio Spurs | Golden State Warriors | |||||||||||
![]() | Vegas Total | 211.0 | ![]() | Vegas Total | 211.0 | |||||||
Vegas Spread | 10.0 | Vegas Spread | -10.0 | |||||||||
Team Total | 100.5 | Team Total | 110.5 | |||||||||
Pace +/- | 3.5 | Pace +/- | -2.3 | |||||||||
Proj. Starter | Patty Mills | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | LaMarcus Aldridge | Pau Gasol | Proj. Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Kevin Durant | Draymond Green | Zaza Pachulia | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Adj. DvP | 3 | 14 | 5 | 21 | 12 | Adj. DvP | 8 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
DRPM | 0.24 | -0.91 | 1.35 | 5.08 | 3.61 | DRPM | -1.07 | 2.10 | 0.85 | 1.25 | 1.43 |
San Antonio Spurs
- Notable Injuries: Tony Parker (quad, out), Kawhi Leonard (ankle, playing)
- San Antonio Spurs Offense
Points Per Game: 105.3 (14 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 100.5 (4 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -4.8 (2 of 6)
Pace of Play: 96.4 (27 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: 3.5 (1 of 6)
- Golden State Warriors Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.3 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.1 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.9 (10 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 200.3 (10 of 30)
We always hear about Golden State’s offense but their defense has been stellar all season. They were second in defensive rating on the year (101.1) and they were the best team after the break (100.0). In the postseason, the Warriors have taken it to another level, posting a 96.9 rating over their first eight games. Out of the nine five-man lineups they’ve used for at least ten minutes, six of them have a defensive rating of 98.9 or lower. Their starting lineup has turned in a 90.8. After holding opponents to a league-best 43.5% field goal percentage during the regular season, they limited Utah and Portland to a combined 40.7% through the first two rounds. Due to superb defending, they held those opponents to 17.4 assists per game. That could be problematic for a Spurs team that’s struggled to generate assists in the playoffs; their assist percentage has dropped from 60.6% (ninth in the league) to 51.5% (13th among the 16 playoff teams). On the positive side, they were much better in the second round in the category, increasing their assist rate to 58.0% against the Rockets from an abysmal 43.9% against the Grizzlies. However, that number was still below their normal production and they’re supposed to do that against Houston, a team that gave up the fourth-most assists this season.
An area San Antonio may be able to win is on the glass, but it won’t be easy. The Spurs have the second-best rebounding rate of the playoffs (54.0%), just one spot ahead of the Warriors (52.0%). The thing is, San Antonio won their battles against the teams that ranked 16th (Grizzlies, 49.6%) and 17th (Rockets, 49.5%) in the second half of the season whereas the Warriors bested teams ranked third (Utah, 52.5%) and seventh (Portland, 51.3%). Although to be fair, Portland was without Jusuf Nurkic.
Overall, it’s going to be a much tougher matchup, specifically from a fantasy perspective, than Houston. From a win/loss point of view, Vegas clearly favors the Warriors, as they’ve given them a 10.0-point edge at home in Game 1. San Antonio has an implied total of 100.5, 4.8 below their average, although they’ll have another pace-up spot.
Kawhi Leonard will play after missing Game 6 against Houston due to an ankle injury. He’ll obviously carry some added risk because of that. Although his scoring was down in the second round, he delivered excellent peripheral stats. Those improved numbers are in danger here, which makes Kevin Durant an appealing option, particularly on FanDuel, where he’s $1,500 cheaper. However, Leonard’s ownership should be lower than it has been, especially with solid mid-range guys like Jae Crowder and Otto Porter available, and he’s one of the best players in the game; therefore, he’s a very interesting tournament option. In two meetings with Golden State this season, Leonard took 20 and 21 FGAs; in the first game (which literally took place on the first day of the season), he scored 35, but in the follow-up in March, he struggled to 19 points. He averaged 6.0 rebounds and 4.0 assists across the two contests. Similarly, LaMarcus Aldridge dropped 26 points on 20 shots to open up the year and scored 17 in the rematch. Notably, his rebounds fell from 14 to 7.
After Tony Parker went down against the Rockets, Aldridge stepped up. He took 20 or more shots in three of their last four games. Without Leonard on Thursday, he was dominant, scoring 34 points on 61.5% shooting and added 12 rebounds to make it his second consecutive double-double. This matchup will be different of course, but he should benefit from smaller lineups as he should get some run without their best rebounder, Pau Gasol, who led the Spurs with an 18.6% rebounding rate against Houston. As we saw after Nene was injured, Pop gave plenty of time to Aldridge at the five and limited Gasol in Game 5. He was unable to do as much of that in Game 6 without Leonard. With the star back for Sunday’s matchup, we could see plenty of small lineups with both Leonard and Jonathon Simmons, who replaced Gasol off the bench on four occasions on Tuesday.
Simmons will undoubtedly be popular now that’s turned in 15+ FD points in five straight games, 23+ in three straight, and has carved out a sizable workload for himself. His salary has increased though, he’s now $4,200 on FD and $4,600 on DK. That isn’t prohibitive as he could play into the mid-20s and he averaged 0.82 FD ppm with a 26.8% usage rate in the second round, but paying up for Porter or Crowder certainly makes sense given their roles and Simmons’ opponent.
The smaller lineups should allow Manu Ginobili to earn more time on the floor as well. He hasn’t had the best playoff run, but he’s shown flashes of upside, keeping him in tournament consideration. Danny Green appears to have a secure workload now that he’s playing better – he scored 10 or more points in four games against Houston – but he’s probably best for tournaments. In the game mentioned above when Leonard and Aldridge struggled, Green went for 4-for-6 from three on his way to 16 points, although he had just five the other time he went up against them. Patty Mills has averaged 17.0 points and 5.5 assists in his two starts this postseason. He should log plenty of minutes and is definitely in play, but there are three elite guards on the slate, which makes paying up at the position very tempting. As mentioned, fellow starter Gasol could potentially lose a few minutes if the Spurs go small. Al Horford is the clear top option at center on FD and there are three solid targets available on DK. With Marcin Gortat losing minutes himself, Gasol remains in consideration at FD but his ownership may be higher than it should. As with the rest of the squad, he’s in for a tough battle against an elite defense.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Game | L5 +/- | True Usage | L5 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Patty Mills | $5,200 | $5,400 | 0.79 | 21.9 | 0.2 | 17.2 | -1.1 | 21.8% | 1.1% | 3 | 0.24 |
Danny Green | $4,000 | $4,400 | 0.62 | 26.6 | 0.8 | 16.5 | -1.5 | 13.8% | 0.4% | 14 | -0.91 |
Kawhi Leonard | $11,400 | $10,300 | 1.22 | 33.4 | 4.6 | 40.6 | 7.6 | 30.9% | -4.3% | 5 | 1.35 |
LaMarcus Aldridge | $7,800 | $7,000 | 0.96 | 32.4 | 2.3 | 31.1 | -2.3 | 24.0% | -2.6% | 21 | 5.08 |
Pau Gasol | $6,100 | $5,700 | 1.06 | 25.4 | -1.7 | 26.9 | -6.7 | 21.5% | -4.0% | 12 | 3.61 |
Manu Ginobili | $3,000 | $3,400 | 0.84 | 18.7 | -2.6 | 15.7 | -2.4 | 22.0% | -1.2% | 14 | N/A |
Jonathon Simmons | $4,200 | $4,600 | 0.67 | 17.9 | -3.4 | 11.9 | -2.2 | 18.9% | 4.9% | 5 | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kawhi Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge (FD)
Secondary Plays – LaMarcus Aldridge (DK), Patty Mills, Jonathon Simmons, Pau Gasol, Manu Ginobili, Danny Green
Golden State Warriors
- Notable Injuries: None
- Golden State Warriors Offense
Points Per Game: 115.9 (1 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 110.5 (1 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -5.4 (3 of 6)
Pace of Play: 102.2 (4 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: -2.3 (4 of 6)
- San Antonio Spurs Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.1 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.9 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.4 (6 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 188.8 (2 of 30)
While the Warriors have improved their defense in the postseason, the Spurs have been worse. After finishing at the top of the NBA with a 100.9 defensive rating, they’ve slipped to 106.1 in the playoffs. They have, however, limited opponents to a 43.6% field goal percentage and as mentioned above, hauled in 54.0% of available rebounds through 12 games. That brings up another item to consider, the Spurs have played 12 games to the Warriors eight. Plus, San Antonio will visit Golden State on two days rest whereas the Warriors are going to head into the contest after five full days off.
Like San Antonio, Golden State’s assist rate has dropped in the playoffs. Even so, their 66.2% would have been good for best in the NBA during the regular season. The Spurs ranked sixth in opponent assists during the season (21.4), but Utah ranked first (17.8) and the Warriors piled up 27.5 per game on the Jazz in the second round. The Jazz were a slightly better rebounding team than the Spurs (51.8% vs 51.6%) but Golden State still out-rebounded them, pulling down 52.6% of all boards. Although the matchup will undoubtedly be a challenge, they seem to be in a better spot than the Spurs. As a comparison to the Warriors nine most-used lineups referenced above, of the Spurs top nine, five of them have a defensive rating of 113 or higher and all but one are greater than 104.7. Of course, several of those included Tony Parker, so that can be a little misleading, but let’s put it this way: their current starting lineup has posted a 123.7 defensive rating in 42 minutes together. At the same time, Golden State’s starting five has posted a 125.6 offensive rating and their “death lineup” is right up there at 122.1.
Although Golden State has a “big four,” three of them stand out as strong fantasy options – Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, and Draymond Green. Durant tied with Curry for a team-high 24.5 points per game against Utah and with Green for a team-high 8.8 rebounds per, although he had a slightly higher rebounding rate (13.9% to 13.3%). He also led the team in usage with a 29.8% rate and per-minute production with a pace of 1.27 FD ppm, which is a decline of 0.10 from his normal return. Durant took the most FGAs, 17.5, while Curry was second with 15.3 per game. The point guard’s usage declined 3.2% below his regular season numbers to 27.8% and he produced 0.13 fewer FD ppm – 1.12 total. At this point, we know that his usage and production drop when he plays with Durant. With John Wall and Isaiah Thomas both in more favorable matchups they may be better options, especially on FanDuel where Wall is just $400 more expensive and Thomas provides a savings of $1,200. On DK, Curry is $2,100 cheaper than Wall and just $200 more than Thomas – he seems like a stronger choice on that site. That means going against the grain on both sites in tournaments – getting exposure to Curry on FD and fading on DK – could be beneficial in terms of ownership percentages. Green is cheaper than Curry and is the clear top power forward on FD. He’s a beast when it comes to peripherals and he closed out the second round with a 17-point triple-double. Although his assists and rebounds were down as compared to the first round, his assist and rebounding rates were right in line with his regular season production – 13.3% and 27.8%, respectively. San Antonio is tough in those areas but Utah is arguably tougher, so there’s no reason to think Green can’t keep this up. However, in terms of scoring, he shot 47.6% from three and took the second-most treys on the team against the Jazz (21). While that’s great to see and he ended up scoring 16.0 points per game, it doesn’t seem sustainable. Still, for those that buy into hot streaks, Green is certainly on fire right now.
Klay Thompson is a boom-or-bust guy that may not be afforded enough opportunities to boom. Even in Game 4 when he set a personal series-high of 16 FGAs and turned them into 21 points, he finished with 23.9 FD points. He’s grabbed two or fewer rebounds in six of eight games this postseason and two or fewer assists in all but one contest. We can be confident in his playing time though, as he should push towards 36 minutes in close games along with the other three mentioned.
The Warriors offer a few bench guys worth consideration, but only Andre Iguodala averaged more than 16 minutes against the Jazz (26.7). He ended up turning in 0.67 FD ppm with a 17.8% usage rate. His usage was up 6.0% but his per-minute pace was 0.09 below average. That could partially be attributed to poor shooting; he was 41.9% from the field overall and 23.1% from deep whereas during the season, he posted 52.8% and 26.2%, respectively. David West could hover around 15-18 minutes normally and he produced 1.01 FD ppm, but he’s going to have to maintain or beat that pace to be of value in fantasy and he may not be worth the risk as he’ll carry limited upside without favorable game flow. Even so, he’s arguably a better option than starter Amir Johnson, who’s in a similar price range Shaun Livingston’s minutes could fluctuate along with his results; he posted 14.6+ FD points in two games in the second round and 5.4 or fewer in the other two. With those three elite point guards available and a nice mid-range guy in Patty Mills, he may not offer enough of a ceiling to be worth a roster spot.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Game | L5 +/- | True Usage | L5 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Stephen Curry | $10,200 | $8,800 | 1.25 | 33.4 | 1.2 | 41.6 | 2.4 | 31.3% | -0.7% | 8 | -1.07 |
Klay Thompson | $7,300 | $5,900 | 0.91 | 34.0 | 1.3 | 30.9 | -7.9 | 24.6% | -6.2% | 12 | 2.10 |
Kevin Durant | $9,900 | $9,900 | 1.36 | 33.4 | -1.8 | 45.5 | -5.5 | 28.0% | -0.2% | 2 | 0.85 |
Draymond Green | $8,800 | $7,900 | 1.06 | 32.5 | 3.7 | 34.6 | 6.6 | 19.3% | -1.1% | 2 | 1.25 |
Zaza Pachulia | $4,000 | $2,700 | 0.96 | 18.1 | -5.2 | 17.4 | -4.3 | 15.7% | 1.9% | 2 | 1.43 |
Andre Iguodala | $5,200 | $4,500 | 0.75 | 26.3 | 2.7 | 19.7 | 1.6 | 13.2% | 4.0% | 2 | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kevin Durant, Draymond Green, Stephen Curry
Secondary Plays – Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala
Washington Wizards at Boston Celtics – 8:00 PM ET
Washington Wizards | Boston Celtics | |||||||||||
![]() | Vegas Total | 210.5 | ![]() | Vegas Total | 210.5 | |||||||
Vegas Spread | 4.5 | Vegas Spread | -4.5 | |||||||||
Team Total | 103.0 | Team Total | 107.5 | |||||||||
Pace +/- | 0.6 | Pace +/- | 1.0 | |||||||||
Proj. Starter | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Otto Porter | Markieff Morris | Marcin Gortat | Proj. Starter | Isaiah Thomas | Avery Bradley | Jae Crowder | Amir Johnson | Al Horford | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Adj. DvP | 18 | 11 | 13 | 24 | 21 | Adj. DvP | 9 | 16 | 17 | 22 | 20 | |
DRPM | -4.21 | -1.13 | 1.37 | 3.79 | 1.59 | DRPM | -0.83 | -0.94 | 0.03 | 1.54 | 1.33 |
Washington Wizards
- Notable Injuries: None
- Washington Wizards Offense
Points Per Game: 109.2 (5 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 103.0 (3 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -6.2 (4 of 6)
Pace of Play: 99.7 (11 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: 0.6 (3 of 6)
- Boston Celtics Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.4 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.5 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.5 (27 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 204.4 (15 of 30)
John Wall was not amused by Boston’s all-black funeral attire so he decided to hit a game-winning three with seconds to go. He finished with 26 points on 25 shots as he continues to struggle a bit from the field; over the past four games, his field goal percentage has been 36.8% or lower. Notably, he’s only converted 41.0% of his attempts within eight feet of the hoop – where 48.8% of his field goals came from over the last four outings. Wall made 56.00% during the regular season while Boston ranked 15th in opponent field goal percentage from the area (56.5). We could see him turn that around tomorrow. Optimus Dime also contributed eight assists, although his 34.4% assist rate is low for him – he posted a 46.9% rate during the year. Bradley Beal added five assists. After opening the series with a 24.3% usage rate, he’s pushed it to 29.8% over the past two. Although he continued to misfire from three, going 1-of-8, he shot 57.7% from the field overall on his way to 33 points. He ended up taking 26 FGAs; it was the first time he launched more than 19 times in this series despite taking 20+ in the first round. Wall and Beal have combined for 45.5% of Washington’s total field goals tomorrow and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them push that share higher in Game 7. Overall, they look like the two best plays at their respective positions, at least in terms of raw points.
Coach Scott Brooks gave us an idea of what he intends to do with the four forwards tomorrow. Markieff Morris (39) and Otto Porter (36) led the way in minutes while Bojan Bogdanovic (17), who played with flu, earned a bigger workload than Kelly Oubre (7). Once again, Bojan entered the game ahead of Oubre. The latter picked up two fouls fairly quickly, limiting him in the first half, but surprisingly didn’t play at all in the second half. Although Brooks has been inconsistent with the group, it appears that he’ll focus on getting his starters a ton of minutes in an elimination game. Bojan and Oubre aren’t much more the high-risk dart throws that may not come with the upside to be worth the risk. For what it’s worth, Bogdonavic should be fully recovered from the illness and it seems like he’ll receive a bigger workload than Oubre.
Porter went scoreless in Game 6 after dropping 13 or more in the first five meetings. He remained effective on the glass, collecting five rebounds though. Boston has been the worst rebounding team in the playoffs, posting a very poor 46.0% rebounding rate. Porter should continue to produce there, but we may have to temper expectations with his scoring. While he shouldn’t blank again, he only managed to take five field goals as Wall and Beal both shot 25 or more. If the two primary scorers takeover again, which makes sense in this scenario, Porter could become the odd man out. Generally speaking, Morris is above him on the scoring totem pole as well. The power forward has scored 16 points in three of the four games he picked up at least 27 minutes against Boston and he’s double-doubled in the two games he played for more than 28 minutes. As with Porter, he’s in a great spot for rebounding and considering he’s scored at least 16 points in every game he’s received at least 30 minutes this postseason, he should put up points as well.
At center, we have Marcin Gortat and Ian Mahinmi in a time share. The latter picked up 15 minutes across two stints. He could potentially move towards his normal 18 minutes tomorrow and he’s still very cheap on FD and DK. He doesn’t come with a ton of upside, but he averaged 15.0 FD points in 17.9 minutes per game this season. Gortat finished with 25.2, although he would’ve pushed past 30 had he not gotten into foul trouble early in the second quarter. If Mahinmi picks up more time, Gortat will lose some, reducing his value further. It seems better to pay up at the position than roll with Gortat. Although on FD, he remains in play as there are fewer options available and Pau Gasol, who’s in a tougher matchup, may lose some minutes himself.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Game | L5 +/- | True Usage | L5 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John Wall | $10,600 | $10,900 | 1.24 | 36.4 | 4.2 | 45.3 | 8.0 | 34.8% | 1.4% | 18 | -4.21 |
Bradley Beal | $7,900 | $7,200 | 0.94 | 34.9 | 2.8 | 32.9 | 0.7 | 26.4% | -1.1% | 11 | -1.13 |
Otto Porter | $5,400 | $6,300 | 0.82 | 32.6 | 2.5 | 26.7 | 5.0 | 14.8% | -1.1% | 13 | 1.37 |
Markieff Morris | $5,500 | $5,900 | 0.83 | 31.2 | -7.8 | 26.1 | -3.7 | 19.8% | 1.1% | 24 | 3.79 |
Marcin Gortat | $5,300 | $5,500 | 0.85 | 31.2 | 2.7 | 26.4 | 2.9 | 14.7% | -0.1% | 21 | 1.59 |
Kelly Oubre | $3,000 | $3,500 | 0.61 | 20.3 | -1.7 | 12.4 | 1.1 | 13.9% | 0.4% | 13 | N/A |
Bojan Bogdanovic | $4,000 | $4,000 | 0.75 | 25.7 | -4.5 | 19.3 | -0.6 | 22.0% | -5.8% | 13 | N/A |
Ian Mahinmi | $2,300 | $2,800 | 0.84 | 17.9 | -8.3 | 15.0 | -5.3 | 13.7% | -3.7% | 21 | N/A |
Elite Plays – John Wall, Bradley Beal, Markieff Morris
Secondary Plays – Otto Porter, Marcin Gortat, Ian Mahinmi, Bojan Bogdanovic
Boston Celtics
- Notable Injuries: None
- Boston Celtics Offense
Points Per Game: 108.0 (7 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 107.5 (2 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -0.5 (1 of 6)
Pace of Play: 99.3 (12 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: 1.0 (2 of 6)
- Washington Wizards Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.4 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.9 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.1 (16 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 203.0 (14 of 30)
Isaiah Thomas got his shot counter back up on Friday. After taking 14 or fewer attempts in the previous three outings, he launched 24 in Game 6 on his way to 27 points. Unfortunately, he struggled to 33.3% shooting from the field, but he hit five treys for the fourth time in six second-round games. Thomas should have the ball in his hands plenty in the final game of the series; it would be surprising if he didn’t take 20 or more FGAs. His assist rate (31.1%) has been just shy of his normal production (32.6%) and he’s collected three or more rebounds in three games against Washington. Sure, he’s pretty scoring dependent, but if there’s a situation to bet on Thomas scoring a ton, wouldn’t it be in Game 7 against a rival at home? Seems like a nice spot to target, especially on DraftKings where his priced has dipped below Stephen Curry’s to $8,600. He’s still $9,000 on FanDuel, which provides a savings of $1,200 off Curry and $1,600 off Wall.
Boston uses their bench more than the Wizards and that won’t change here, but if Game 6 is any indication, coach Brad Stevens is going to push Thomas, Al Horford, Avery Bradley, and Jae Crowder as much as he can. They all received at least 37 minutes while Bradley unsurprisingly led the squad with 42. Following a stellar opening round, Horford’s numbers have regressed towards his average – 11.8% rebounding rate, 25.9% assist rate – as have his raw per-game averages – 6.7 rebounds, 5.2 assists. However, he’s only put in 33.9 minutes a night due to poor game flow for most of the series. In terms of raw numbers, he should see his assists and rebounds rise in a competitive game as he should end up with 36-40 minutes on the floor. He’s already scoring an extra 3.0 points per game (17.0) as he’s been hot, making 68.9% of his field goals. Everything seems to be falling for him, including a seemingly accidental bank shot that gave Boston a late lead in Game 6. Fortunately, if he stumbles on the scoring end, he’s capable of providing a solid floor through peripherals. Crowder has been able to do the same. His assist rate is up 6.0% to 16.1% and his rebounding rate as increased 2.2% over his average to 12.3%. He’s currently leading the team with 6.8 rebounds per game against the Wizards. In terms of scoring, Crowder is fourth with 14.3 points per game, but he’s taken at least nine shots. When compared to Otto Porter, he looks like a better target as he’s been more consistent – he’s topped 26 FD points in every game in the second round and exceeded 30 in four – and will likely pick up a couple more minutes than his counterpart. As for Bradley, he seems to pick up the tempo when closing out a series. Against Chicago, he averaged 23.5 points in the final two meetings and he’s averaged 28.0 over the last two games against Washington. Bradley took 18 and 19 attempts in Games 5 and 6 and he’s been more aggressive; 37.8% of his attempts have been within five feet of the hoop whereas he took 29.4% of his shots from that area during the regular season. He’s completing 64.3% of those attempts and it enabled him to get to the charity stripe four times last time out – he averaged 1.7 FTAs during the season. While Bradley has set a high scoring pace over the past two contests, which will be tough to sustain, he will likely push past 40 minutes again and he appears established as Boston’s second scorer, averaging a full 5.0 FGAs more than Crowder (15.0 to 11.0), who’s taken the third-most attempts.
The fifth starter, Amir Johnson, will likely get two stints – one in the first quarter and another in the third – which will likely total 15-18 minutes. He averaged 0.82 FD ppm during the regular season with a 14.1% usage rate. In this series, he’s lost 4.1% off his usage and 0.13 from his per-minute fantasy pace. He’s far from a strong target, but he’s managed to scored seven or more in two of his past three starts and he’s averaged 3.3 rebounds during that stretch.
Marcus Smart and Kelly Olynyk will likely lead the bench in minutes. Smart hasn’t been getting 30+ minutes though, he hasn’t exceeded 28 since Game 2. He had a down game last time out, scoring just 1 point on three shots. He had scored nine points in four straight, but there may either Bradley, Thomas, or both were shooting less than normal in those games. If the two starters come out firing like last game, there won’t be many opportunities to fall to Smart considering Horford and Crowder are also ahead of him in the pecking order. On the positive side, Smart delivered five rebounds and four assists as he continues to provide peripheral stats. Olynyk is consistently around 20 minutes and it isn’t enough time for him to provide a huge return, he’s not much more than a GPP dart throw. Fellow bench guys, Terry Rozier and Jaylen Brown barely seem to be worthwhile high-risk options as they may not earn a ton of minutes in Game 7. They each picked up 11 in Game 6. In previous contests, they’ve been aided by game flow, so rostering them is essentially a bet on a blowout game. However, starters generally stay in longer than normal in lopsided elimination games.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Game | L5 +/- | True Usage | L5 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Isaiah Thomas | $9,000 | $8,600 | 1.19 | 33.8 | 0.9 | 40.4 | -0.6 | 34.9% | -2.6% | 9 | -0.83 |
Avery Bradley | $6,000 | $5,800 | 0.84 | 33.4 | 1.1 | 28.1 | 1.0 | 21.5% | -0.9% | 16 | -0.94 |
Jae Crowder | $6,200 | $6,100 | 0.79 | 32.4 | 0.5 | 25.7 | 2.7 | 16.9% | 0.0% | 17 | 0.03 |
Amir Johnson | $2,500 | $2,800 | 0.82 | 20.1 | -12.4 | 16.5 | -12.4 | 14.3% | -1.4% | 22 | 1.54 |
Al Horford | $8,100 | $7,100 | 1.00 | 32.3 | 1.0 | 32.2 | 4.1 | 21.6% | -3.5% | 20 | 1.33 |
Marcus Smart | $5,300 | $5,000 | 0.80 | 30.4 | 0.4 | 24.2 | -2.0 | 20.7% | -2.5% | 16 | N/A |
Kelly Olynyk | $4,700 | $3,900 | 0.90 | 20.5 | -2.5 | 18.5 | -4.5 | 19.5% | 1.2% | 20 | N/A |
Terry Rozier | $2,500 | $3,100 | 0.74 | 17.1 | 0.9 | 12.7 | 3.6 | 18.2% | -2.9% | 9 | N/A |