NBA Grind Down: Thursday, February 20th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-02-20 21:14:19

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace

Denver at Milwaukee

• Vegas Line – Denver -3.5, 204.5 Over/Under
• Denver Proj. Starters – Foye-Hamilton-Chandler-Faried-Hickson
• Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Wolters-Middleton-Ilyasova-Pachulia

Denver

There are 3 games on the schedule tonight. While that’s not ideal for DFS, it’s much better than the usual 2 games on Thursday nights. Today is the last day of the NBA trade deadline and we have already seen a few trades take place. Luckily, there are only 6 teams to worry about tonight and most of them are likely to stay quiet through the deadline.

The first game of the night features two teams that have really struggled defensively this season. The Nuggets and Bucks are both ranked in the bottom 10 in terms of points allowed per game. This should be a fairly fast paced, high scoring game that will likely fly under the radar considering the other two games on the schedule.

Although their hasn’t been an update on Ty Lawson status today, he is considered questionable at best for tonight’s game and most people in Denver expect him to sit out once again. If that’s the case, look for Randy Foye to slide over and start at PG again and for Evan Fournier to pick up a lot of playing time as well. It sounds like the Nuggets have just traded Jordan Hamilton so that should open up even more minutes for Fournier tonight. As previously mentioned, the Bucks are not a good defensive team. In terms of fantasy points allowed, they are ranked 19th or worse against SG’s, SF’s, PF’s, and Centers.

• Randy Foye – Foye’s price varies across the board tonight so he is more of a site specific play. On FD, his price is all the way up to $6,400 which seems a bit much, however on SS he is listed at $8,000 which is extremely cheap. If Lawson has to sit out tonight, Foye will likely spend some time at both PG and SG. He has nice upside against this Bucks’ defense.

• J.J. Hickson – There is typically a debate between Faried and Hickson, but to me the choice is pretty simple. Faried has awful road splits and usually sees very limited minutes on the road because of it. Hickson on the other hand has been pretty consistent both at home and on the road. The Bucks have really struggled defensively against Centers this season and I like Hickson for a solid performance tonight.

• Wilson Chandler – The Nuggets are actually a pretty decent team to stack tonight on such a short slate. They are pretty cheap across the board, will have a short rotation, and have a very favorable matchup against the Bucks. Chandler is one of those players whose value really gets hurt when he becomes a 3-point shooter. When he is attacking the basket and running the floor, he is a great fantasy option. Hopefully he will get back to that tonight against the Bucks.

Milwaukee

The Bucks continue to confuse us daily fantasy players. In their last game against the Magic, we were expecting big minutes from both Ersan Ilyasova and Zaza Pachulia, but classic Larry Drew had other ideas. They both saw less than 20 minutes of playing time while Caron Butler, who hadn’t played in two weeks, saw 30 minutes of action. It just goes to show you that you can never truly trust any Bucks players to see consistent minutes with the exception of Brandon Knight.

The Bucks are going to be a little short-handed tonight as they just traded away Luke Ridnour and Gary Neal, however neither player was getting much playing time so it shouldn’t have a big impact on tonight’s game. The Bucks have a nice matchup against the Nuggets who are one of the fastest paced teams in the league. I would love John Henson if he gets the start, but I’m not sure that will happen. If Henson comes off the bench, I think he and Zaza are both average options at best.

• Brandon Knight – Knight is the one Bucks player that you can trust in all leagues tonight. He is going to get his playing time regardless. He also has a very favorable matchup against the combination of Foye and Fournier. Knight has scored at least 28 FP’s in 7 straight games and should keep that streak alive tonight.

• Nate Wolters – I was worried about Wolters fantasy value with Mayo and Butler back, but it didn’t impact him at all. Wolters has been on fire over his past 4 games with 32, 25, 37, and 38 fantasy points. He should see big minutes again tonight. On FD, he is still $4,300 which almost seems like a steal.

• Ersan Ilyasova – Ilyasova “should” see more playing time tonight with Sanders still out, but like we all know, you can never really predict what Larry Drew is going to do. I like Ilyasova’s price across the industry though and he has a terrific matchup against the Nuggets who have given up the 3rd most FP’s to opposing PF’s this season.

Miami at Oklahoma City

• Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -3.5, 206 Over/Under
• Miami Proj. Starters – Chalmers-Wade-James-Battier-Bosh
• Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Jackson-Sefolosha-Durant-Ibaka-Perkins

Miami

The Heat travel to OKC to take on a Thunder team that could be getting it’s second best player back tonight. This should be an extremely exciting game to watch as we get to see the two best players in the league battle it out. It would be even better if LeBron and Durant would defend each other, but they usually wait until the second half to do that. This game should be very important to both players as they are both vying for that MVP award at the end of the season. A strong performance one way or the other could start to sway the voters.

The Heat’s matchup against OKC isn’t a great one, but both teams are projected to score over 100 points so there should be plenty of fantasy points to be had in this one. Dwyane “GTD” Wade makes an interesting play tonight and the good news is that this will be the first game to tip-off so we will know about his official status well before leagues lock. I also think Mario Chalmers makes a nice sleeper pick, the PG position is the one position that the Thunder have failed to defend well.

• LeBron James – In their first meeting this season, LeBron put up 33 points, but only managed to post 3 rebounds and 3 assists. That is not a very LeBron-esque type of stat line. I have a hard time seeing him doing that again tonight. I think something in the range of 28 points, 8 rebounds, and 7 assists is more likely tonight. LeBron is coming into this game playing his best basketball of the season and I think he is actually the better play between he and Durant if Westbrook does make his return tonight.

• Chris Bosh – Bosh is never my favorite fantasy play. I always seem to catch him on the wrong nights. That said, he should have a solid matchup against Kendrick Perkins who is too slow to stay with him on the perimeter. In the past, the Thunder have played small ball with the Heat and use Ibaka at Center for the majority of the game. I think Bosh should play well in either of those matchups.

Oklahoma City

Is it just me or does Russell Westbrook seem to heal faster than any other human on the planet? It always seems like he comes back at least a couple weeks early. He is listed as a game-time decision for tonight, but after going through shootaround yesterday, I think he has a better chance of suiting up than not. Having Westbrook back in the lineup really changes things for the Thunder. Westbrook has the ball in his hands a lot more than Jackson does and you will likely see a dip in both Durant’s and Jackson’s numbers.

For the analysis, I am going to assume that Westbrook is going to play and then you can adjust accordingly if they decide to hold him out. The Thunder’s matchup against the Heat isn’t great, but it’s not terrible either. Neither of these teams are very fast-paced, but they are both very efficient offensively. This means that the total for the game will be high, but there will likely be a few less possessions per team than the other two games on the schedule.

• Kevin Durant – Durant leads the league in both usage rate and PIE %, but I expect him to drop in both of those rankings with the return of Westbrook. Obviously, the Thunder are a better team with Westbrook in the lineup, but Durant’s numbers almost have to take a hit because Westbrook needs the ball in his hands in order to be effective. Anyway, back to his matchup tonight. Durant has played well against Bron in the past and I see him as the 2nd overall option on the board tonight, second only to LeBron.

• Serge Ibaka – Ibaka played well in their first meeting this season. He posted 22 points and 8 rebounds. I love his matchup against Shane Battier to start the game, but that matchup likely won’t last long and we will likely see Ibaka on Bosh for most of the night. Either way, Ibaka makes a solid play. He should be the leading rebounder of this game.

Houston at Golden State

• Vegas Line – Golden State -1, 212 Over/Under
• Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Parsons-Jones-Howard
• Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Iguodala-Lee-O’Neal

Houston

The final game of the night features two of the highest scoring teams in the league. The Warriors are averaging 103 PPG and the Rockets are averaging 106 PPG. This game is projected to be the highest scoring game of the night and it’s also expected to be a highly contested game.

If you were to only use the DvP rankings in your analysis, this would not look like a great matchup for the Rockets. In terms of fantasy points allowed, the Warriors are ranked 14th or better against SG’s, SF’s, PF’s, and Centers. That said, this is expected to be a very fast-paced game and DvP rankings go out the window when the game turns into a track meet. Terrence Jones makes a nice value play on both SS and DS tonight, even though he has been struggling, he is under-priced on both sites. Chandler Parsons is also worth a look tonight, he has been rock solid and should play well again tonight.

• James Harden – Harden will likely be hounded by Andre Iguodala tonight. While that’s a tough matchup, Harden is coming into this game playing his best basketball of the season. He is coming off of a huge performance last night against the Lakers and I think he should be able to get it going tonight against the Warriors. Look for the Rockets to push the pace so that the Warriors won’t be able to set up their half-court defense.

• Dwight Howard – Dwight’s fantasy value hinges on one player tonight: Andrew Bogut. If Bogut has to sit out again tonight, Howard becomes one of the top overall fantasy options. Without Bogut, the Warriors are left with O’Neal, Lee, and Speights at Center. Dwight would have a huge mis-match over all three defenders. Check the injury news later in the day and plug in Dwight if Bogut is out.

Golden State

Golden State

The Warriors coasted to an easy victory last night against the Kings and now have a much tougher matchup in front of them tonight. The Rockets have defended the Center position well this season, but have been average or below average at defending the other four positions on the floor. Andrew Bogut availability impacts the fantasy value of David Lee, Jermaine O’Neal, and Draymond Green. Klay Thompson and Andre Iguodala are both decent options at SG and SF, but both have been very inconsistent this season.

• Stephen Curry – Curry seemed to coast through last night’s win against the Kings. Perhaps he was saving his energy for tonight’s matchup against Beverley and the Rockets. While Beverley is a very pesky defender, the Rockets are ranked 24th against PG’s over the last 15 days which doesn’t scare me off of Curry one bit. Curry has rack up fantasy points in so many different ways that I’m not worried about Beverley impacting his fantasy production.

• David Lee – While Lee has played great in Bogut’s absence, I actually think that he would be better off tonight if Bogut was in the lineup. Without Bogut, Lee has to spend some time at Center which means he will have to deal with Dwight on both ends of the floor. That’s a tough matchup for Lee. I still think he is playable, but I like his matchup against Jones a lot more than a potential matchup with Dwight.