NBA Grind Down: Thursday, March 27th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-03-27 19:54:47

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace

Portland at Atlanta

• Vegas Line – Portland -4.5, 207 Over/Under
• Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez
• Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Carroll-Scott-Millsap-Antic

Portland

There are 4 games on the schedule tonight which is actually a lot for a Thursday night. The Blazers are expected to have LaMarcus Aldridge back in the lineup tonight against the Hawks after he had missed the previous 7 games due to a back injury. There hasn’t been any word on whether or not he will be on any kind of minutes restriction, but the safest route is to avoid Aldridge altogether tonight. Aldridge’s presence does however, mean a dip in production for both Nicolas Batum and Robin Lopez. They are still both in play tonight, but it’s something to keep in mind when putting your lineups together.

The Hawks are a fast paced team (97 possessions per game) and are giving up the 11th most points per game this season. If you look at their DvP rankings, they are ranked between 19th and 23rd against all five positions on the floor this season in terms of fantasy points allowed. Damian Lillard has been very inconsistent of late, but maybe having Aldridge back in the lineup will help take some of the load off of him. He makes a solid tournament play against Teague and the Hawks.

Atlanta

The Hawks have a nice matchup tonight against the Blazers who have lost 3 straight games. The Hawks are trying to hold off the Knicks for the 8th and final spot in the Eastern Conference Playoffs. Kyle Korver missed their last game with back spasms and there has not been an update on his status for tonight’s game. If he is forced to sit out again, Mike Scott would likely draw the start and would make for a nice punt play at PF as he is close to minimum salary across the board.

The Blazers are giving up the 7th most points per game this season, but they will have Aldridge back which helps their defense immensely. Paul Millsap makes a decent play at PF, but I’m not sold on his matchup against Aldridge. Aldridge is a very lengthy defender that can stay with bigs on the perimeter.

• Jeff Teague – Teague essentially got the night off last night against the Wolves as he had one of his poorest performances of the season. He should be able to bounce back nicely tonight against the Blazers who have surrendered the 3rd most FP’s to PG’s this season. Teague tends to be a streaky player and before last night’s game, his game logs had been stellar over the past two weeks.

• DeMarre Carroll – As crazy as it may sound, Carroll is locked and loaded as one of the top cash game plays tonight. Carroll has posted at least 22 FP’s in 9 of his last 10 games and has topped 25 FP’s in 6 of those games. Carroll would see a boost if Korver is out as well. Not only would he likely see an uptick in production, but he would start at SG which would mean that Matthews would be defending him instead of Batum.

Philadelphia at Houston

• Vegas Line – Houston -20, 215 Over/Under
• Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Anderson-Thompson-Young-Sims
• Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Parsons-Jones-Howard

Philadelphia

A 20 point line used to be a rare occurrence in the NBA, but these days we see one every time the Sixers are on the road. This game is an obvious blowout situation, the question is whether or not the starters from both teams will see enough playing time in order to reach their value. As far as the matchup goes, the Rockets like to push the pace and are ranked below average defensively against SG’s, SF’s, and PF’s this season.

Tony Wroten will miss another game tonight as he is dealing with an ankle injury. This gives a nice boost to Michael Carter-Williams, James Anderson, and Hollis Thompson. MCW has been a bright spot for the Sixers, but he will be hounded by Patrick Beverley all night and he has been very turnover prone this season averaging almost 4 per game. Thaddeus Young makes a nice tournament play as the Rockets are ranked 27th against PF’s this season. Thad has shown that he has a high ceiling, but his low floor is what scares me away for cash games. If, for any reason, Dwight Howard is a late scratch, Henry Sims aka Sim City would make a nice punt play at Center.

• James Anderson – Anderson is cheap across the industry and is coming off of one of his best games of the season. He had a solid all-around game against the Spurs in which he posted 31 FP’s. Anderson should see a boost in minutes and production with Wroten out and I don’t think a blowout hurts his fantasy value very much, if at all.

Houston

The Rockets will be the biggest debate for many Grinder tonight. The Rockets are still fighting for playoff positioning, but are 20 point favorites tonight and with a big game against the Clippers coming up on Saturday, tonight would be the perfect night to either rest or limit the starters. I’m not saying that’s what Coach McHale will do, but that’s certainly in play as the Rockets gear up for the playoffs.

We all know how bad this Sixers’ defense is. In fact, the Sixers are not only the worst defense this season, but they are the worst defense in a long time. The Sixers are giving up 110 points per game this season and are ranked in the bottom 3 against all five positions on the floor. That said, do you really trust any of the Rockets’ starters to reach value in only 3 quarters of play?

Even with a short slate, I’m not sure that I will be paying up for either Dwight Howard or James Harden. There is just too much risk involved at the price you have to pay for either of them. I do think some of the cheaper options are in play though. This feels like the perfect game for Patrick Beverley. The Sixers are very turnover prone and he is averaging 1.5 steals per game this season. I also like Chandler Parsons and Terrence Jones in this one.

L.A.Lakers at Milwaukee

• Vegas Line – Milwaukee -1.5, 216.5 Over/Under
• L.A.Lakers Proj. Starters – Marshall-Meeks-Johnson-Hill-Kaman
• Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Sessions-Middleton-Ilyasova-Pachulia

L.A.Lakers

While the Sixers/Rockets game has a higher total, this is by far the better game to target tonight. Neither of these teams like to play defense and this is expected to be a close game throughout. The Lakers will be without Pau Gasol tonight as he didn’t make the road trip. This would typically result in a start for Chris Kaman, but he had to catch a late plane to Milwaukee as he was dealing with a personal issue. There is no official word as to whether or not Kaman will play, so make sure to get an update on his status before putting him in any of your lineups.

The Bucks are one of the worst rebounding teams in the league (Lakers are even worse) and are ranked 20th or worse against SG’s, SF’s, PF’s, and Centers. The one position that they have defended well is the PG position and you probably don’t want to target any of the Lakers’ PG’s tonight anyway. I expect the starters to see more run than they did last game. The bench came in and took over against the Knicks and this bench just hasn’t been the same on the road as they have been at home.

• Jordan Hill – In typical D’Antoni fashion, he only gave Hill 14 minutes after two breakout performances in the previous two games. That’s always concerning, but you have to love the matchup for Hill tonight and the fact that the Lakers will be without Pau and possibly without Kaman only helps his value even more. Hill’s price is still cheap across the industry and he should be dominant on the glass tonight.

• Jodie Meeks – I’m not too interested in any of the wing players off the bench for the Lakers, but I do like Meeks at SG. He has quietly been posting 25+ FP’s per night and often flies under the radar in the DFS world. He has a nice matchup against Sessions tonight and he makes a safe play at SG in a game that should provide a ton of open looks from the 3-point line.

Milwaukee

It sounds like the Bucks are going to hold Ersan Ilyasova out for the remainder of the season which means the Jeff Adrien vs. John Henson debate rages on! Typically in these situations, I like to favor the starter, but to be honest, I like them both tonight against the Lakers who are the league’s worst rebounding team. There aren’t many teams that are worse at rebounding than the Bucks, but the Lakers are one of them and we have to take advantage of that.

The Lakers are giving up the 2nd most points per game this season and are ranked 29th or 30th against all five positions on the floor. Ramon Sessions makes a nice play tonight as he should draw another start at SG. Sessions is coming off of a career game and makes for a nice value play on most sites. Khris Middleton and the Alphabet are both in play as well, both are seeing 30+ minutes per game which is never a bad thing against this Lakers’ defense.

• Brandon Knight – Knight is a stat sheet stuffer (say that 10 times fast). He has a great matchup tonight and should be owned in ALL leagues. Outside of Chris Paul, Knight is my #2 ranked PG and that’s not even factoring in price. He should have a field day against this defense.

• Jeff Adrien – As long as Adrien is starting again tonight, he gets the nod over John Henson. Adrien is a terrific rebounder and like I mentioned earlier, the Lakers are not a good rebounding team. Adrien has scored at least 17 FP’s in 8 straight games and you have to think that his floor is even higher now that he is in the starting lineup.

L.A.Clippers at Dallas

• Vegas Line – L.A.Clippers -1.5, 212 Over/Under
• L.A.Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Collison-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan
• Dallas Proj. Starters – Calderon-Ellis-Marion-Nowitzki-Dalembert

L.A.Clippers

The final game of the night features the Clippers and the Mavericks. The total is set at 212 points and the Clippers are only favored by 1.5 points so this game should be close and high scoring. The Mavericks have not been great defensively this season as they are ranked between 12th and 21st against all five positions on the floor. Darren Collison continues to be under-utilized by most DFS players even though he is still starting and has topped 20 FP’s in 3 straight games.

Jamal Crawford looks like he is back to his old self after hanging 31 actual points on the Pelicans last night. I don’t mind the matchup for Chris Paul tonight, but he’s had subpar performances in back to back games and I’m not sure I want to pay that price for him. DeAndre Jordan should play well here, especially if Samuel Dalembert has to sit. The Mavericks are going to have a hard enough time keeping Jordan off the glass even if Big Dal is playing.

• Blake Griffin – In two games against the Mavs this season, Griffin is averaging 21 points, 12 rebounds, and 6 assists. I think he can post similar numbers tonight as the Mavs have not defended PF’s well this season. Griffin is just too physical for Dirk to defend down low.

Dallas

The Mavericks have a decent matchup against the Clippers, but their individual production has been very sporadic of late. One game Dirk Nowitzki will go off, then Monta Ellis will take a turn, then the bench will show up big. They are an extremely difficult team to predict night in and night out. Looking at the DvP rankings of the Clippers, the 3 positions that you want to target here are SG, PF, and Center.

Samuel Dalembert is listed as a game-time decision tonight. If he is forced to sit, Brandan Wright could be a nice punt play at Center. He can put up FP’s in a hurry and is close to minimum salary across the industry. Monta Ellis is in play again tonight, but he will be matched up against Collison and I don’t love that matchup even though the DvP rankings suggest otherwise.

• Dirk Nowitzki – It feels like I’ve been touting Dirk for a bounce back game for a few weeks now and he finally had one against the Thunder the other night. Dirk had 32 points, 10 rebounds, and 6 assists in that game. Dirk has been very solid at home this season and is averaging 25 points and 6 rebounds against the Clippers this season.