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NBA Grind Down: Thursday, May 11th

by Bryan Pauquette (bryanpauquette) Last Updated 2017-05-12 03:12:20

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets – Thursday, 8:00 PM ET

San Antonio Spurs Houston Rockets
sanantonionba Vegas Total 213.0 houstonnba Vegas Total 213.0
Vegas Spread 7.0 Vegas Spread -7.0
Team Total 103.0 Team Total 110.0
Pace +/- 3.8 Pace +/- -2.3
Proj. Starter Patty Mills Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Pau Gasol Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley Eric Gordon James Harden Trevor Ariza Clint Capela
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 25 26 23 27 26 Adj. DvP 8 12 2 2 2
DRPM 1.89 -0.13 -1.81 1.54 1.25 DRPM -1.07 2.10 0.85 1.25 1.43

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs drafted Manu Ginobili when James Harden was ten years old. Nearly 18 years later, the old man blocked the latter at the overtime buzzer in a pivotal Game 5 matchup to seal a victory. With Kawhi Leonard on the bench dealing with ankle and knee issues, Ginobili played the entire extra period and added two rebounds and assist to the block. All in all, the veteran had his best game of the postseason, finishing with 12 points, seven rebounds, and five assists in 32 minutes of action.

With Nene out for the Rockets, Houston went with smaller lineups, placing Ryan Anderson at center for several stints during the game. San Antonio countered by limiting their starting center Pau Gasol to 20 minutes and moving LaMarcus Aldridge to the five at times. Jonathon Simmons came in for Gasol in the first quarter and promptly dropped six points in his first seven minutes. He finished with 12 points in 32 minutes after playing the entire overtime ahead of Gasol. Coach Gregg Popovich decided to bench Dejounte Murray in favor of Patty Mills heading into the game; the former didn’t end up entering the game once. Instead, Mills got a 38-minute run through four quarters and another five in OT. It appears this will be San Antonio’s strategy in Game 6 – Patty Mills should be up there with Leonard (if he plays) and Aldridge in terms of minutes while Simmons could end up in the mid-20s. Ginobili may cross 20 minutes, although he could receive more depending on Leonard’s status. It’s also worth noting that Danny Green picked up 35 minutes prior to OT; he seems locked into a sizable workload as well. Green hasn’t had the best postseason, but he scored seven of San Antonio’s nine points in overtime and finished 4-for-8 from three.

In terms of the value guys – Green, Ginobili, Simmons – Simmons may be the most interesting option on FanDuel. Unlike the previous slates he was on with two elite small forwards, there’s Kawhi and three choices between $5,400-$6,200 (Ariza, Porter, and Crowder) while Simmons is just $2,500. With his expanded role, he may offer enough upside to be worth a roster spot. He’s now scored 11+ points in four of the last five games and he’s topped 23.4 FD points in two straight. He’s also boasting a 28.2% usage rate since Parker went down, which is second on the team. On DraftKings, he’s $3,800, which makes it tougher. Even so, he looks like he’s one of the best options under $4k. Should Leonard end up sitting out Game 6, or is expected to be limited, Ginobili would become a top value. If Leonard is in, he’s still in play as he should pick up some extra minutes with Dejounte Murray out of the rotation entirely. After a shaky start to the playoffs, Ginobili is averaging 0.84 FD ppm with a 20.4% usage rate, right in line with his normal numbers. At that pace, he would need 24 minutes to surpass 20 FD points. As for Green, he ended up having a solid performance on Tuesday, but as mentioned, he was aided by overtime. With Ginobili $1,000 less on FanDuel, it may be worth the risk of going down to him as Green generally carries limited upside; he’s set a per-minute pace of 0.58 FD ppm in this series.

Leonard said he’ll play tonight after suffering an ankle injury in Game 5 but he’s officially considered questionable. In addition to the ankle problem, he was on the sidelines getting treatment on his knee on Tuesday. Even with the knee issue, he was having a huge game prior to his ankle injury, he finished with 22 points and 15 rebounds. However, following the new injury, he was unable to score in the fourth quarter. Unfortunately, he only had one day off to rehab, but as of now, we should expect him to play a full game to close out the series. He’s one of the top targets on the slate, although he’ll certainly carry more risk than normal. The most impressive thing he’s done this series has been his improvement in peripheral stats – his rebounding rate is up 5.1% to 14.9% while his assist rate has increased 8.4% above his season average to 27.3%.

Aldridge was also a beast on the glass on Tuesday, hauling in 14 boards. It was only his first game with double-digit rebounds in this series, but with Gasol playing limited minutes and the Rockets going small, he should have an advantageous spot. Although he wasn’t efficient as a scorer, dropping 18 on 21 shots, it’s great to see him take 21 attempts. In the three games without Parker, he’s averaged 18.0 FGAs per game, which bolsters his fantasy value as he averaged 14.6 during the regular season. He’ll look even better if Leonard ends up missing the game. Across 314.5 minutes with Leonard off the court this season, Aldridge’s usage increased 6.1% to 32.3% and his per-minute production jumped 0.24 FD ppm to 1.18. He’ll continue playing a ton of minutes either way, as will Patty Mills. The latter dropped 20 points on Tuesday and he’s now averaging 0.73 FD ppm in the three games without Parker. His price remains reasonable and he’s looking like a better value now that Murray seems to be out of the rotation.

Over at center, Gasol is looking risky. He may continue to see limited minutes due to both teams going small. He’s maintained a nice pace of 1.04 FD ppm though, so he could continue to be effective if given the time. Backup David Lee only played 11 minutes in Game 5. While he was able to turn them into 11.6 FD points, that’s not enough to be a great value and he might continue in a similar role for the same reasons as Gasol.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Patty Mills $4,600 $5,300 0.79 21.9 0.2 17.2 -1.1 21.8% 1.1% 25 1.89
Danny Green $3,800 $4,300 0.62 26.6 0.8 16.5 -1.5 13.8% 0.4% 26 -0.13
Kawhi Leonard $10,600 $10,700 1.22 33.4 4.6 40.6 7.6 30.9% -4.3% 23 -1.81
LaMarcus Aldridge $7,000 $6,900 0.96 32.4 2.3 31.1 -2.3 24.0% -2.6% 27 1.54
Pau Gasol $5,800 $5,900 1.06 25.4 -1.7 26.9 -6.7 21.5% -4.0% 26 1.25
Manu Ginobili $2,800 $3,300 0.84 18.7 -2.6 15.7 -2.4 22.0% -1.2% 26 N/A
Jonathon Simmons $2,500 $3,800 0.67 17.9 -3.4 11.9 -2.2 18.9% 4.9% 23 N/A

Elite Plays – Kawhi Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge

Secondary Plays – Patty Mills, Jonathon Simmons, Danny Green, Pau Gasol

Houston Rockets

The Rockets went with a seven-man rotation in Game 5 and figure to use the same strategy tonight. Ryan Anderson came off the bench and picked up 36 minutes (33 in regulation), two more than starter Clint Capela. Although they were on the court together for several periods of time, Anderson had a few runs at center. Most notably, in the third quarter, he scored seven points and grabbed three rebounds while Capela was on the bench for the Rockets and Pau Gasol was on the sidelines for the Spurs. He ended up scoring 19 points in total and pulled down seven boards. Even though he’s going to be the sixth-man, he should earn a sizable, secure workload. The concern remains his inconsistent scoring and he’s only averaged 0.65 FD ppm in this series. Even so, he’s a viable tournament pick.

Capela received 30 minutes in regulation (34 with OT), which is a nice bump above the 23-25 he had been playing when Nene was healthy. He had three blocks and ended up one point shy of a double-double (nine points, 11 rebounds). He’s had some huge games in this series, including a pair of double-doubles. Considering he’s getting extra minutes and he’s averaging 1.2 FD ppm in the second round, he’s looking like a very intriguing target, especially with Gasol and Marcin Gortat seeing reduced workloads.

Houston’s tight rotation paired with overtime allowed four guys to surpass 40 minutes: Eric Gordon (44), James Harden (43), Patrick Beverley (42), and Trevor Ariza (40). It’s not surprising to see Harden and Ariza reach those numbers as they’ve been playing the most minutes on the team this postseason. Gordon was forced into the starting lineup in this game and it seems like we can expect him to push towards 36 minutes in regulation tonight. He struggled to get things going on offense as he only scored 11 points, but he did take 13 shots overall and six threes. He’s struggled all season when on the floor with this first unit, so it’s a positive sign to see him get so many opportunities to score. He also pulled down six rebounds and added three assists. The final fantasy result may not have been great, but he still looks like a solid target at his price. Beverley was much more effective, scoring 20 points on ten shots as he was hot from three, going 5-of-7. He’s getting a lot of minutes in this series as Lou Williams has seen his workload decline. That’s great, but he doesn’t offer much more than Patty Mills, so it makes sense to take the savings with Mills on FanDuel if interested in paying down at the position. Williams was cold, going 3-for-10 overall and 0-for-5 from three. He’s been struggling this series, he’s now 3-for-16 from deep in the second. He’ll still get time on the floor and he could potentially push towards 30 minutes if he’s shooting well. His ownership will remain low, but he can score in bunches, so he remains an interesting high-risk, high-reward tournament option. In a situation where he’s shooting well, he could potentially steal a few minutes from Beverley or Gordon.

Ariza only scored nine on 3-of-10 shooting, bringing his series average to 13.4 points. He added eight rebounds, matching a personal high for this postseason. With the way Otto Porter and Jae Crowder have been playing, they seem like stronger targets. That said, Ariza could come with lower ownership than them in tournaments. Plus, he’s averaging 11.3 FGAs and 7.7 3PAs over the past three contests, so he brings plenty of upside to the table if he can get those shots to drop.

As expected, Harden is leading the team with a 34.1% usage rate in the playoffs. He posted his first triple-double on Tuesday after exploding in the first half for 23 points, eight rebounds, and five assists. He slowed down after the break, tallying ten points, two rebounds, and five assists. Although it will be difficult for him to repeat that type of performance against the Spurs, there’s little question he’s going to enter full takeover mode in an elimination game at home. His price on DraftKings is favorable at $10,900, especially considering he’s just $100 more than Wall and $200 more than Leonard, who’s dealing with an injury. He’s proven his ability to generate assists against San Antonio as he’s averaging 10 per game and he may benefit on the glass from the smaller lineups as he did in Game 5. His points are down a bit (27.4 vs 29.1) and that can be attributed to him taking 3.7 fewer FTAs than average (7.2 vs. 10.9). He’s still managed to score 33+ in two games in the second round though and he launched 15 threes in Game 5. Expect his volume to be sky high tonight.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Patrick Beverley $5,500 $5,100 0.82 30.7 -2.5 25.2 -1.7 16.3% 5.3% 8 -1.07
Eric Gordon $5,200 $5,300 0.77 31.0 0.3 23.8 -0.6 22.0% -4.5% 12 2.10
James Harden $12,400 $10,900 1.48 36.4 0.0 53.9 -9.2 38.6% -0.8% 2 0.85
Trevor Ariza $5,900 $5,600 0.72 34.7 2.9 25.1 -2.4 14.4% -1.5% 2 1.25
Clint Capela $6,500 $6,100 1.08 23.9 0.4 25.9 3.8 19.1% -3.6% 2 1.43
Ryan Anderson $4,200 $5,200 0.71 29.4 -0.8 20.9 -4.8 17.2% -4.5% 2 N/A
Lou Williams $4,600 $4,700 1.03 24.6 -1.3 25.4 -8.7 28.9% -5.6% 12 N/A

Elite Plays – James Harden, Clint Capela

Secondary Plays – Trevor Ariza, Eric Gordon, Patrick Beverley, Ryan Anderson, Lou Williams

Boston Celtics at Washington Wizards – Friday, 8:00 PM ET

Boston Celtics Washington Wizards
bostonnba Vegas Total washingtonnba Vegas Total
Vegas Spread Vegas Spread
Team Total Team Total
Pace +/- 1.0 Pace +/- 0.6
Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Al Horford Proj. Starter John Wall Bradley Beal Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 9 16 17 22 20 Adj. DvP 18 11 13 24 21
DRPM -0.83 -0.94 0.03 1.54 1.33 DRPM -4.21 -1.13 1.37 3.79 1.59

Boston Celtics

People often praise Boston for their depth and it showed on Wednesday. After jumping out to a 12-point lead in the first quarter, Boston started the second with bench players Jaylen Brown, Kelly Olynyk, Marcus Smart, Terry Rozier, and starter Jae Crowder. Not only did they hold the lead, but they went on a 15-5 run in the first five minutes. The same bench guys started the fourth with Isaiah Thomas in place of Crowder and went on an 11-0 run within the first three minutes. Due to the blowout, Jaylen Brown accumulated 26 minutes on the court, which tied with Smart for the most off the bench. They were followed by Rozier (21) and Olynyk (16). Brown didn’t score a single point, but through peripherals finished with 10.75 DK points. Brown hasn’t played too much this postseason (99.1 minutes), but he may have earned a bigger workload through his solid play. The issue is what he brought to the game yesterday didn’t show up on the box score. Plus, in a competitive game, he wouldn’t have received so much time on the floor. He can be considered a GPP dart throw if anticipating another lopsided game, as he played the entire fourth quarter, but he doesn’t offer much upside and he’s only averaging 0.68 DK ppm in the playoffs.

Brown’s presence in the rotation throws some things off for other guys. Most notably, Marcus Smart wasn’t the first one off the bench and he only picked up 16 minutes through the first three quarters, adding ten in the fourth frame after most of the starters had checked out for the night. He ended up with a very nice outing, doing most of his damage through peripherals (11 rebounds, and six assists) – he continues to have a solid floor despite scoring just nine points for the fourth-straight game. If Brown and Rozier remain this involved in the rotation, Smart’s workload won’t be as secure as it has been recently. It didn’t help him that Amir Johnson stuck around for 18 minutes, tying his personal high for the postseason. Johnson finished with eight points, and five rebounds. It doesn’t seem like he’ll be crossing the 20-minute mark, but he could continue to pick up big stints at the beginning of the first and third quarters. He still isn’t a particularly appealing option, but on FanDuel there are very few options at power forwards. With Johnson picking up a larger workload, Olynyk didn’t play too much. He continued to be a solid per-minute man, scoring 18.5 DK points in 16 minutes, but his upside is capped with his current role.

Rozier earned nine of his minutes after most of the starters were done for the night. With a nine-man rotation, there isn’t a ton of minutes to go to the four bench guys unless they’re getting a bunch of action in garbage time. He’ll certainly be involved in the offense, he checked in for a ten-minute stint overlapping the first and the second, but it won’t be enough for him to be a great fantasy asset. There are enough point guard options to not have to worry about him.

As mentioned, Boston’s primary guys were limited; only Isaiah Thomas played in the fourth quarter. Avery Bradley and Al Horford were the stars of the group. Bradley was son fire from the beginning and ended up with 29 points on 19 shots. Fortunately, the hip pointers he suffered in Games 2 and 4 don’t seem to be much of a concern. That means we can expect him to play a ton of minutes and if he continues his aggressive style of play, he’ll be a clear step ahead of Smart and Crowder. Horford continues to impress across the board; he was 8-for-9 from the floor (18 points total), hauled in six rebounds, contributed seven assists, and stuffed three shots. He’s been fantastic this postseason and he’ll continue to be a top target.

With Bradley and Horford scoring so much, there was little need for Thomas to enter takeover mode, although he picked up nine assists along the way. He finished with 13 FGAs and 18 points. That marks the third straight game he’s been held under 20 points. However, if we can get a close game, there’s little doubt he’ll turn up the scoring in a game that could seal a trip to the Eastern Conference finals.

Crowder matched Thomas with 18 points, although ten of them came in the second quarter when he was afforded a six-minute stint with bench guys in the second. He’s now averaging 0.83 DK ppm and he’s produced at least 29.25 DK points in four-straight games. In a close game he’ll pick up plenty of time on the floor – he had just 26 in Game 5.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Isaiah Thomas $9,000 $9,200 1.19 33.8 0.9 40.4 -0.6 34.9% -2.6% 9 -0.83
Avery Bradley $6,000 $5,600 0.84 33.4 1.1 28.1 1.0 21.5% -0.9% 16 -0.94
Jae Crowder $6,200 $6,100 0.79 32.4 0.5 25.7 2.7 16.9% 0.0% 17 0.03
Amir Johnson $2,500 $2,600 0.82 20.1 -12.4 16.5 -12.4 14.3% -1.4% 22 1.54
Al Horford $8,100 $7,100 1.00 32.3 1.0 32.2 4.1 21.6% -3.5% 20 1.33
Marcus Smart $5,300 $5,300 0.80 30.4 0.4 24.2 -2.0 20.7% -2.5% 16 N/A
Kelly Olynyk $4,700 $4,000 0.90 20.5 -2.5 18.5 -4.5 19.5% 1.2% 20 N/A
Terry Rozier $2,500 $3,700 0.74 17.1 0.9 12.7 3.6 18.2% -2.9% 9 N/A

Elite Plays – Isaiah Thomas, Al Horford

Secondary Plays – Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder, Marcus Smart, Amir Johnson

Washington Wizards

Unfortunately, Game 5 turned into another lopsided affair, which essentially barred the starters from the fourth quarter. As one might guess from the game flow, Washington shot poorly from the field – 38.5% from the field and 24.1% from three. Beal led the team with 19 FGAs in 35 minutes, but only scored 16 points. The positive takeaway was the shot attempts matched his series-high. As a result, Wall took his fewest attempts (17), although he still dropped 21 points. Most notably, he only contributed four assists after he accumulated 12+ in three of the four previous meetings. That number dipped in part due to poor shooting from his teammates and also because Beal took on some more ball-handling duties leading to a 21.4% assist rate. We should expect a bounce back game from both guys at home tomorrow. Washington has played much better in D.C. in this series and they’re facing elimination. That means Wall should be a usage monster and when he’s not scoring himself, he should be looking for Beal a ton.

As expected, Otto Porter, Markieff Morris, Kelly Oubre, and Bojan Bogdanovic created their own four-man rotation. Somewhat surprisingly, Bojan entered for Morris ahead of Oubre, who didn’t check in until the second quarter. In a close game, it doesn’t appear either backup will receive enough time on the floor to be useful, even though Scott Brooks will keep them involved in the rotation. At the same time, they’ll still cut into the starters’ mintutes. Porter played 25 and Morris received 28, but both of them were held out of the fourth quarter entirely, so we should expect them to enter the low-30s normally. Despite the limitations, they both surpassed 21 DK points and Porter was the best shooter on the team with a 54.5% field goal percentage. His usage remains up from the first round (17.7%) and he’s averaging 11.0 FGAs per game in this series. He remains a nice target at his salary. Morris remains third on the team with a 23.9% usage rate and he’s turning in a solid 1.05 DK ppm against Boston. If we can get a close game, he should be a strong fantasy asset on this slate.

Finally, Ian Mahinmi and Marcin Gortat are in a timeshare. Mahinmi picked up 14 minutes on Wednesday and he could potentially have his minutes restriction removed in Game 6. Either way Gortat, will likely remain in the 20s in terms of minutes, reducing his fantasy value. The starting center managed to pull down 11 boards in 25 minutes last game, but only added seven points. It will be hard for him to produce a ton of fantasy points in this situation. If we get word that Mahinmi will play without limitations, he would be an interesting GPP play on FanDuel at $2,300. Although the opportunity cost of missing out on big games from Horford and Capela may be too great, he averaged 15.0 FD points this season in 17.9 minutes per game.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
John Wall $10,600 $10,800 1.24 36.4 4.2 45.3 8.0 34.8% 1.4% 18 -4.21
Bradley Beal $7,900 $7,200 0.94 34.9 2.8 32.9 0.7 26.4% -1.1% 11 -1.13
Otto Porter $5,400 $6,600 0.82 32.6 2.5 26.7 5.0 14.8% -1.1% 13 1.37
Markieff Morris $5,500 $5,800 0.83 31.2 -7.8 26.1 -3.7 19.8% 1.1% 24 3.79
Marcin Gortat $5,300 $6,000 0.85 31.2 2.7 26.4 2.9 14.7% -0.1% 21 1.59
Kelly Oubre $3,000 $3,900 0.61 20.3 -1.7 12.4 1.1 13.9% 0.4% 13 N/A
Bojan Bogdanovic $4,000 $4,200 0.75 25.7 -4.5 19.3 -0.6 22.0% -5.8% 13 N/A
Ian Mahinmi $2,300 $2,900 0.84 17.9 -8.3 15.0 -5.3 13.7% -3.7% 21 N/A

Elite Plays – John Wall, Bradley Beal, Markieff Morris

Secondary Plays – Otto Porter, Marcin Gortat, Ian Mahinmi

About the Author

bryanpauquette
Bryan Pauquette (bryanpauquette)

Bryan Pauquette’s peak in life came in 2002 when he struck out live on the YES network in the New York State Little League championship. Unfortunately, his team lost to a squad that cheated their way to the U.S. Semi-Finals, so he feels forever robbed of a chance to go down swinging on ESPN. As it turns out, he’s much better at fantasy sports than actual ones and he’s been an avid cash game and small-field tournament player since 2015. He joined RotoGrinders in Summer Sixteen as part of their alerts and projections team. Outside of RG, Bryan is a television writer and producer based in the City of Angels (he does not root for any of their teams, but he’s thinking about the Chargers because he’s giving up on the Jets).