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NBA Grind Down: Thursday, May 4th

by Bryan Pauquette (bryanpauquette) Last Updated 2017-05-05 04:42:07

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Boston Celtics at Washington Wizards – 8:00 PM ET

Boston Celtics Washington Wizards
bostonnba Vegas Total 218.5 washingtonnba Vegas Total 218.5
Vegas Spread 5.5 Vegas Spread -5.5
Team Total 106.5 Team Total 112.0
Pace +/- 1.0 Pace +/- 0.6
Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Gerald Green Jae Crowder Al Horford Proj. Starter John Wall Bradley Beal Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 9 16 17 22 20 Adj. DvP 18 11 13 24 21
DRPM -0.83 -0.94 0.03 1.54 1.33 DRPM -4.21 -1.13 -1.56 1.37 1.59

Boston Celtics

What an awesome series. Not only have they produced two great games, but these two teams don’t like each other at all. Basketball just doesn’t get much better than witnessing Isaiah Thomas take Markieff Morris to school.

Thomas was completely locked in; he shot 54.5% from the field on his way to 53 total points. Of course, he had the home crowd behind him the whole way. Now he’ll head to D.C. for Boston’s first road test of the second round. Thomas had noticeable splits this season when he was away from The Garden; he averaged 1.8 fewer points per game (28.0) as his overall shooting percentage declined 3.3% (44.5%) and his three-point percentage dropped 2.5% (36.6%). That said, 28.0 ppg is still outstanding and that was in 33.8 minutes per game. He played 38 minutes in the non-overtime game and 40 prior to OT in Game 2. Washington has a soft defense and they allow high field goal percentages all over the floor. Plus, Thomas is simply on another level right now. Paying up for both point guard spots on FanDuel has been a successful strategy for most of the playoffs, with Curry $400 more expensive than Thomas tonight and playing with Durant, IT seems like a nice option. An argument could be made for Curry on DK, where he’s $600 cheaper. In terms of GPP ownership, IT will probably be higher-owned on FD and Curry on DK, so an advantage could be had on DK by rolling with Thomas.

Boston chose to put Amir Johnson back in the starting lineup on Tuesday, but it’s not clear why. He was pulled 4.5 minutes into the game and never returned. He might be removed from the lineup and rotation once again tonight. Maybe Marcus Smart will start? That’s pure speculation, but coach Brad Stevens doesn’t seem very high on Gerald Green in this series. Smart normally enters in the first frame and plays 30-34 minutes. He’s been playing well defensively in addition to providing some solid peripheral stats. If he could start scoring, he’d be a great asset. However, he hasn’t been very aggressive on offense. Instead of being active and driving to the hoop, he seems content with letting others run the offense while he waits for an open three. In the postseason, he’s averaged 4.1 3PAs per game, right in line with his regular season rate (4.2), but he’s averaging 2.0 fewer FGAs overall (7.5 vs. 9.5). On top of that, prior to Game 2, he averaged 0.8 free throws a night as opposed to 3.2 during the season. He managed to get there for six attempts in Game 2, which is a positive sign, but he still only attempted seven field goals. With Avery Bradley so close in price on FanDuel ($400 difference), he’s definitely the safer option; over the past four games, his usage rate is 10.8% higher at 24.7%, he earns more time on the floor, and he’s produced 0.90 FD ppm whereas Smart turned in 0.79. However, in tournaments, Smart is an interesting pivot as he’ll most likely come with lower ownership. On DK, Smart offers an $800 savings, but may still come with lower ownership in GPPs.

With Bradley in and out of the locker room a few times with a hip issue, Boston’s rotations were a little different than we can expect tonight. Most notably, Jaylen Brown played essentially all 12 of his minutes while Bradley was off the court. He earned six and seven minutes in the two games prior, so he should still be in the rotation, it just probably won’t be for as much time. Even at his cheap price, he doesn’t seem like a great target. Terry Rozier earned 25.2 minutes, but he played plenty with Bradley. While he may have picked up a little extra time due to Bradley’s injury, he probably earned a workload in that ballpark moving forward. Not only did he have a box score plus-minus of plus 25, but he contributed 12 points, six rebounds, four assists, and a steal. On the series, he has an assist rate of 16.4% and a rebounding rate of 21.9%. While he can maintain the assists (15.2% during the regular season), the rebounding is unsustainable (10.0% during season). Game 2 was the first time he’s taken more than six field goals this postseason and he’ll have to keep that scoring pace to deliver another big return on his salary. Again, paying up at point guard has been a pretty solid strategy so far, but getting some exposure on Rozier in tournaments isn’t a bad idea.

After Rozier, Kelly Olynyk was second on the team with a plus-minus of plus 11. He once again came out firing as soon as he touched the floor, scoring five points, grabbing two boards, and adding an assist in the first quarter. Despite his solid play, he only received 21.1 minutes. He’s a potential value play as he’s produced 0.86 FD ppm, but his limited minutes prevents him from being a strong option.

Al Horford and Jae Crowder had solid performances in 41+ minutes of action each. Horford had somewhat of a “down game” but still scored 36.9 FD points. He had a double-double with 12 boards, but his assists dropped to three – he’s been averaging 6.5. He continues to shoot a bit over his head as he made 6-of-9 and he was bailed out by overtime as he scored four of his points and tallied two rebounds with the extra time. Still, he offers a better points-per-dollar projection than Rudy Gobert on FanDuel. Gobert is $400 cheaper on DK, which is tempting considering his upside, and Draymond Green is just $300 more on DK and seems worth paying up for. Crowder picked up 5.9 FD points in overtime; that essentially saved his fantasy day as it allowed him to outscore the cheaper Otto Porter. With Porter closer in price now, Crowder becomes a stronger option. Although he had a slow start to the postseason, he’s delivered 0.83 FD ppm over the past four games on a 17.6% usage rate.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Isaiah Thomas $9,600 $9,600 1.19 33.8 2.8 40.4 -4.0 34.9% -2.3% 9 -0.83
Avery Bradley $6,300 $6,400 0.84 33.4 3.7 28.1 -2.9 21.5% -3.1% 16 -0.94
Gerald Green $2,100 $3,000 0.78 11.4 3.9 8.9 1.3 21.6% -2.3% 17 0.03
Jae Crowder $6,300 $6,000 0.79 32.4 2.5 25.7 -2.2 16.9% -0.4% 22 1.54
Al Horford $8,300 $7,800 1.00 32.3 2.8 32.2 6.8 21.6% -2.4% 20 1.33
Marcus Smart $5,900 $5,600 0.80 30.4 0.5 24.2 1.6 20.7% -4.0% 16 N/A
Kelly Olynyk $4,800 $4,100 0.90 20.5 -1.2 18.5 1.6 19.5% 0.6% 20 N/A
Terry Rozier $2,600 $3,500 0.74 17.1 -0.8 12.7 -1.4 18.2% -3.0% 9 N/A

Elite Plays – Isaiah Thomas, Al Horford, Avery Bradley

Secondary Plays – Jae Crowder, Marcus Smart, Terry Rozier, Kelly Olynyk

Washington Wizards

Bradley Beal stunk up the joint in Game 2. He went 4-for-15 from the field, 1-of-9 from three and had some really bad turnovers (six total). This postseason, he’s converted 27.5% of his attempts from deep. That’s going to turn around at some point (if they keep playing) as he made 40.4% of his treys during the regular season. In a must-win game in D.C., this could be a great spot for Beal to get things going – he completed 44.2% of his threes at home this season while hitting 36.7% on the road.

Of course, his partner John Wall was excellent. He scored 40 points on 32 shots while adding 13 assists, three steals, and three blocks. Through eight postseason games, he’s posted an elite assist rate of 51.0%. He’ll keep racking them up in this series, the question is whether he can continue to score. If Beal were to make shots he would take more than 15 FGAs as he did last game, potentially cutting into Wall’s volume. However, Wall has been in complete takeover mode over the past three games; his usage is up to 37.7% and he’s produced 1.37 FD ppm, increases of 4.8% and 0.10 FD ppm. Although Marcus Smart will guard him defensively, Wall should continue to take plenty of shots whether or not Beal gets hot, and he’ll likely find success.

Despite an ankle injury, Markieff Morris started and was effective in his 27 minutes. He was in foul trouble yet again and ultimately fouled out of the game. He ended up second on the team with 16 points. If he can manage to avoid these fouls, he would be a great fantasy option, he’s taken at least 11 FGAs in all five playoff games he managed to stay on the court for more than 20 minutes. He also grabbed six or more rebounds in four of them and had multiple blocks in three. Should he get into the same problem, Kelly Oubre stands to benefit the most. He’s surpassed Bojan Bogdanovic in the rotation as Oubre earned 28 minutes to Bojan’s eight. He came in for Morris on two separate occasions following fouls and he also spells Otto Porter. He’s averaging 0.73 FD ppm over the past three games, which is an improvement of 0.09 above his regular season rate. He’s definitely risky as some of his minutes depend on Morris’ status, but he could push towards 20 normally.

In addition to Oubre, Otto Porter, Marcin Gortat, and Jason Smith earned some extra time when Morris was sidelined. Both Porter and Gortat have been playing solid basketball, each turning in 0.90 FD ppm over the last three outings. Porter’s price has jumped and without OT and Morris’ foul troubles, he would’ve played fewer minutes. Even so, his price is far from prohibitive and he’s still a bit cheaper than Crowder, who offers a similar production rate. It’s good to see Porter’s usage back up to 15.1% over the past few contests as it had dipped to 12.4% during the first round. Gortat is in a similar boat with his minutes, but he played 41 prior to fouling out in the first minute of overtime. He could push towards 36 under normal circumstances. He’s posted consecutive double-doubles and he’s been looking great. On FanDuel, he’s $2,100 cheaper than Horford and $3,200 cheaper than Gobert, which gives him a better points-per-dollar projection. On DK, he’s just $900 cheaper than Gobert and doesn’t offer the same type of upside. Smith is not a strong value option as his minutes depend on Morris’ fouls, but he managed to score 10 points in his 16 minutes on Tuesday.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
John Wall $10,800 $10,600 1.24 36.4 1.2 45.3 2.6 34.8% 0.0% 18 -4.21
Bradley Beal $7,600 $7,500 0.94 34.9 4.4 32.9 3.7 26.4% 2.1% 11 -1.13
Otto Porter $5,600 $5,800 0.82 32.6 -2.8 26.7 -5.8 14.8% -2.1% 13 -1.56
Markieff Morris $6,100 $5,400 0.83 31.2 -4.9 26.1 -4.9 19.8% 0.9% 24 1.37
Marcin Gortat $6,200 $6,500 0.85 31.2 2.7 26.4 2.0 14.7% -4.0% 21 1.59
Kelly Oubre $3,100 $3,600 0.61 20.3 -4.8 12.4 -0.5 13.9% 3.2% 13 N/A
Bojan Bogdanovic $4,000 $3,400 0.75 25.7 -4.8 19.3 -2.1 22.0% -2.2% 13 N/A

Elite Plays – John Wall, Bradley Beal, Marcin Gortat (FD), Markieff Morris (FD)

Secondary Plays – Markieff Morris (DK), Marcin Gortat (DK), Otto Porter, Kelly Oubre

Utah Jazz at Golden State Warriors – 10:30 PM ET

Utah Jazz Golden State Warriors
utahnba Vegas Total 204.5 goldenstatenba Vegas Total 204.5
Vegas Spread 12.5 Vegas Spread -12.5
Team Total 96.0 Team Total 108.5
Pace +/- 3.5 Pace +/- -5.1
Proj. Starter George Hill Joe Ingles Gordon Hayward Joe Johnson Rudy Gobert Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Kevin Durant Draymond Green Zaza Pachulia
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 3 14 5 21 12 Adj. DvP 1 2 1 1 3
DRPM 0.24 -0.91 1.35 5.08 3.61 DRPM 0.60 0.04 0.13 -1.25 6.03

Utah Jazz

Game 1 didn’t go as planned for the Jazz. All the starters were pulled by the five-minute mark in the fourth quarter. Golden State is favored by 12.5 points again tonight, so there is a chance of another blowout. It doesn’t help that George Hill has been ruled out due to a toe injury.

Utah hasn’t announced a replacement as of this writing, but it could be Shelvin Mack. When Hill was off the court and Mack and Joe Johnson were on during the season, Gordon Hayward experienced a huge bump of 0.18 DK ppm, bringing his total to 1.24. His usage increased by 3.4% to 32.8%. Hayward struggled mightily from the field, going 4-for-15 overall and 2-for-9 from three in 35 minutes. He was also robbed of five minutes due to game flow. That’s a big concern again and it should drive his ownership down a bit. The Jazz will lean on him as their primary scorer, so if it’s close it will likely be due to his performance. He’s an interesting tournament option. Mack earned 21 minutes in Game 1 and turned them into 22.25 DK points. During the season, he averaged 0.75 DK ppm on a 20.6% usage rate when Hill was off the floor. He was even better against Golden State, turning in 0.78 DK ppm on a 26.8% usage rate across 90.4 minutes. Coach Quin Snyder had him operate as Hill’s primarily backup in Game 1 due to that success. Assuming he’s starting, he’ll be a chalky option, but for good reason, as he’s incredibly cheap across the industry.

Utah inserted Joe Johnson into the starting lineup ahead of Boris Diaw in the first game of the series and he scored 18.0 FD points in 22 minutes and he was 3-of-6 from three. He still has a 24.4% usage rate and a pace of 0.93 DK ppm this postseason and he’ll be a solid target whether he starts or not. He’s more appealing on DraftKings than FanDuel as he’s under $5k and offers a $900 savings off Porter. Johnson’s presence in the starting five may have a slightly negative impact on Gobert. The center lost 0.03 DK ppm when Johnson was on the floor this season while he gained 0.05 when Diaw was on. Despite that, Gobert got off to a solid start in Game 1, he had five points, three boards, an assist and a block within the first eight minutes of the game. He scored the remained of his fantasy points in a stretch from the beginning of the second through most of the third, but didn’t do anything after that with the game out of hand. All in all, he finished with 32.5 DK points. With Hill out, he may take a further hit to his production. When he played alongside Johnson and Mack while Hill was off this season, his pace dropped 0.08 DK ppm to 0.98 in a 309.3-minute sample. His price is still cheap enough on DraftKings to warrant a look, especially considering he grabbed 17+ rebounds in all three meetings with the Warriors this season, but his price tag on FanDuel may make him too high to be a solid contrarian option in this situation. It may be better to see how he responds tonight and wait for their first home game when they will have a better chance of keeping it close.

Rodney Hood started dropping some shots finally, he was 6-for-12 from the field, but he went 0-for-4 on triples. He finished with 12 points and five rebounds. With Hill out, he could be in line for some extra time on the court tonight, but he’s going to have to do better as a scorer to have value. Not surprisingly, he takes more shots when Hill is off and Mack on, and his usage increased 4.0% to 28.8% in that scenario.

Joe Ingles should see plenty of minutes, but he’s averaged 0.65 DK ppm this postseason on a 12.6% usage rate. That’s not terribly exciting. However, when Mack and Johnson were on and Hill off and Mack on, he returned an extra 0.18 DK ppm, raising his pace to 0.88.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
George Hill $5,800 $5,700 0.89 31.5 5.9 28.0 -3.2 24.7% -3.5% 3 0.24
Joe Ingles $4,700 $4,700 0.68 24.1 9.3 16.3 5.6 15.4% -3.0% 14 -0.91
Gordon Hayward $8,400 $7,700 1.00 34.5 -0.3 34.3 -0.8 27.6% -0.5% 5 1.35
Joe Johnson $5,600 $4,900 0.68 23.6 8.3 16.1 12.1 18.7% 4.4% 21 5.08
Rudy Gobert $9,400 $7,400 1.05 33.9 -13.9 35.8 -12.3 16.2% 1.5% 12 3.61
Boris Diaw $3,200 $3,000 0.57 17.6 1.8 10.1 1.4 17.6% -0.7% 21 N/A
Derrick Favors $5,300 $4,500 0.87 23.7 4.3 20.7 -0.5 19.8% -5.4% 21 N/A

Elite Plays – Gordon Hayward, Shelvin Mack (if starting, based on pts/$)

Secondary Plays – Rudy Gobert, Rodney Hood, Joe Johnson, Joe Ingles

Golden State Warriors

All of Golden State’s starters played limited minutes as well. Stephen Curry tweaked his ankle in the third quarter and ended up missing the entire fourth outside of a few seconds when he tried to run it off. Both he and the team are adamant that he’s fine and the injury isn’t anything to worry about. We should expect him to get a full workload if it stays close. Curry led the team is usage with a 30.3% rate and points with 22. Kevin Durant still took the most field goals though, attempting 17 across his 31 minutes. When KD was on the floor, Curry’s usage dropped to 26.3%, as expected. Generally speaking, his ceiling is capped when Durant is on the floor, which makes his price on FanDuel seem a little high.

Durant didn’t have a big game, but he contributed five assists and grabbed five rebounds in his time. It seems like this one could become another blowout, but if it’s close he should push towards 36 minutes. He faced the Jazz for 93.4 minutes during the regular season and he saw a decrease in his production due to the slow pace and strong defense. His per-36 pace dropped 7.83 DK points to 44.71. He remains the top guy at his position, but he may have a tough time reaching his normal production levels in this spot.

Similarly, Draymond Green has seen his per-36 pace dip 3.39 DK points to 40.92, but he remains the top option at his power forward on FD and center on DK. Green was once again a peripheral monster in Game 1, accumulating eight rebounds, six assists, two steals, and two blocks. He even added 17 points, nailing two from beyond the arc. Klay Thompson topped him with three triples to lead the Warriors, who struggled as a team to 24.1% from deep. Thompson took 13 shots overall and finished with 22.0 DK points. That’s the second consecutive game he’s taken 13 FGAs after he launched 17 and 21 times in the two games Durant missed. Like Curry, he takes a hit to his usage and production when Durant is on the floor. Like the other guys, he didn’t do great against the Jazz this season, setting a per-36 pace of 27.87 DK points. He’s a potential contrarian GPP option, but he’ll need to get a ton of shots and stay hot to pay off.

Although Iguodala produced 0.60 DK ppm against the Jazz this season, a 0.20 drop, he managed to post 19.25 DK points in 24 minutes in Game 1. He struggled from the field, going 2-for-8, but he was able to contribute some peripheral stats. With Durant healthy, he won’t have a ton of upside, but he could play around 24-26 minutes.

Several guys got extended runs off the bench given the game flow and couple of them will be worth tournament consideration again tonight. Most notably, David West and Shaun Livingston earned 18 and 20 minutes, respectively. Both guys are in the rotation regardless of game flow, but they stand to benefit in blowouts. West has been a per-minute monster this postseason, turning in 1.17 DK ppm on a 16.9% usage rate. He dropped seven dimes on some really pretty passing in Game 1 on his way to 25.5 DK points. Livingston scored nine and pulled down five boards. He’s not as exciting as his usage rate is just 8.8% in the playoffs and he produced 0.70 DK ppm. Ian Clark has the same per-minute production, but he’s commanded a 17.6% usage rate. He earned 18 minutes due to game flow and Curry’s injury, but he’s another guy that would be a tournament option if banking on a blowout.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Stephen Curry $10,000 $9,000 1.25 33.4 0.3 41.6 6.4 31.3% 4.3% 1 0.60
Klay Thompson $7,200 $5,900 0.91 34.0 0.3 30.9 -7.2 24.6% -0.1% 2 0.04
Kevin Durant $9,600 $8,900 1.36 33.4 -5.3 45.5 -12.1 28.0% 0.6% 1 0.13
Draymond Green $8,800 $8,100 1.06 32.5 2.7 34.6 11.8 19.3% -1.3% 1 -1.25
Zaza Pachulia $3,700 $2,600 0.96 18.1 -3.5 17.4 -3.1 15.7% 4.5% 3 6.03
Andre Iguodala $5,100 $4,300 0.75 26.3 3.7 19.7 2.1 13.2% -0.1% 1 N/A

Elite Plays – Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, Draymond Green

Secondary Plays – Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala, David West, Shaun Livingston, Ian Clark

About the Author

bryanpauquette
Bryan Pauquette (bryanpauquette)

Bryan Pauquette’s peak in life came in 2002 when he struck out live on the YES network in the New York State Little League championship. Unfortunately, his team lost to a squad that cheated their way to the U.S. Semi-Finals, so he feels forever robbed of a chance to go down swinging on ESPN. As it turns out, he’s much better at fantasy sports than actual ones and he’s been an avid cash game and small-field tournament player since 2015. He joined RotoGrinders in Summer Sixteen as part of their alerts and projections team. Outside of RG, Bryan is a television writer and producer based in the City of Angels (he does not root for any of their teams, but he’s thinking about the Chargers because he’s giving up on the Jets).