NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, February 4th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-02-04 22:10:47

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace

Indiana at Atlanta

• Vegas Line – Indiana -3, 198 Over/Under
• Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Stephenson-George-West-Hibbert
• Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Ayon

Indiana

The Pacers seemed to toy around with the Magic last night. They came out and got up big early, then let the Magic back in the game, and then finally put the gas on in the second half and ended up with a 19 point win. Tonight they travel to Atlanta to take on the Hawks in the second half of a back to back.

The Hawks play at an above average pace and own a defense that has struggled all season long. With all of the injuries to the Hawks, their DvP rankings have not been consistent, but in general, they have struggled to defend all five positions on the floor. Roy Hibbert seemingly has a good matchup, however, the Hawks are ranked 2nd against opposing Centers with Ayon in the starting lineup. That could be an anomaly, but it’s enough to persuade me away from taking Hibbert tonight.

• David West – West has been extremely solid, over his last 8 games, he is averaging well over 25 FP’s per game. Tonight he has a nice matchup against Millsap and the Hawks who are ranked 17th against the PF position. West is affordable on all sites across the board and is a nice cash game play that you can rely on tonight.

• Paul George – George has been outshined by Stephenson and their salaries are moving in opposite directions. In fact, Stephenson is actually more expensive than George on DS tonight. I don’t know if anyone could have predicted that at the beginning of the season. But back to the matchup, the Hawks have given up the 5th most FP’s to SF’s this season and I like taking George in close games because the Pacers rely on him as their go to guy at the end of games.

• Lance Stephenson – In Stephenson’s last 10 games, he has topped the 40 fantasy point mark 5 times and has only scored less than 25 fantasy points once. He is playing the best basketball of his career and he may be the most confident player on the floor. I don’t know if I will pay his salary on DS, but I love him on the other major sites, especially FD and DK.

Atlanta

The Hawks run into the buzz saw that is the Pacers’ defense tonight. The Pacers own the league’s best defense and they are on track to be one of the best defenses in a very long time. The Pacers are ranked 7th or better at defending every position on the floor this season. That makes it very tough to trust any of the Hawks players tonight. That said, this game is expected to stay close and the Hawks are projected to score over 95 points so the points will have to come from somewhere.

• Paul Millsap – It’s tough to recommend taking a big man against the Pacers, but I’m actually going to recommend both big men from the Hawks on this short slate of games. Millsap is one of those players that doesn’t get hurt in a physical matchup. He has a great outside shot, he can take it off the dribble, and he is great at drawing fouls. He has topped 35 FP’s in 7 straight games and I think he gets close to that number again tonight.

• Gustavo Ayon – With Ayon, it’s all about his minutes. He is going to get rebounds and an easy bucket here or there when he is in the game. When he sees a decent amount of minutes, he has been a very productive fantasy player. The matchup against the very large front-court of the Pacers should mean big minutes for Ayon. He’s topped 20 FP’s in 3 of his last 5 games and I think he reaches that mark again tonight.

L.A.Lakers at Minnesota

• Vegas Line – Minnesota -10, 216 Over/Under
• L.A.Lakers Proj. Starters – Marshall-Meeks-Young-Kelly-Hill
• Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Brewer-Love-Turiaf

L.A.Lakers

The Lakers story this season has been injuries. It seems like everytime the Lakers get a player back, they lose another guy to a different injury. Tonight the Lakers may be getting three of their guards back. Steve Nash, Jordan Farmar, and Steve Blake are all on pace to play in tonight’s game. While this is good news for the Lakers, it really muddies up the minutes for guys like Kendall Marshall, Jodie Meeks, and Nick Young. I don’t expect the three guys coming back from injury to play major minutes, but they are certainly going to cut into the minutes of the others.

But the injury gods giveth and then they taketh. Pau Gasol did not travel with the team for their 3-game road trip so look for Chris Kaman to see a nice fantasy boost. While he hasn’t played a ton this season, he has really played well in his couple of spot starts. If you can get him anywhere near minimum salary, I think he is a risk that could really pay off. Ryan Kelly is another name that stands out tonight, he is really cheap and has topped 20 FP’s in 7 of his last 9 games.

Minnesota

The Wolves face the ever-struggling Lakers’ defense tonight. The Lakers are ranked 25th or worse against every position on the floor this season. Wesley Johnson is a pretty solid defender, but the rest of the team often forgets to play defense. With Pau Gasol out of the lineup, the Lakers aren’t going to have anyone to protect the rim.

There are 4 viable fantasy options on the Wolves tonight. On a night with only 4 games, it may not be a bad idea to take 3-4 T-Wolves players tonight. Not only do they have the best matchup on the board, but doing so would cover your bases and give you a solid base to build your team around.

• Kevin Love – You can make a case for Love no matter who he is facing. Tonight’s matchup makes it easy. The Lakers have given up more FP’s than any team to opposing PF’s this season and I have a hard time seeing Ryan Kelly and Chris Kaman stopping Love on either end of the floor. This is not a night to fade Love.

• Ricky Rubio – Rubio is more of a wild card, but the matchup and the upside are there for him tonight. He will likely see a mix of defenders as the Lakers will try to give all of their guys that are returning from injury a few minutes. The funny part is that all of the 4 potential PG’s of the Lakers have terrible defense.

• Kevin Martin – With Pekovic out, I was expecting Martin to play a bigger role in the offense and really establish himself as the #2 scorer. That hasn’t been the case thus far, but he’s had a couple of off nights shooting the ball. He should be able to get it going tonight against this awful Lakers’ defense.

• Ronny Turiaf – If you are looking to save money at the Center position, look no further than Turiaf. He is extremely cheap tonight (FD = $4.1k, DK = $4.1k, DS = $7.2k) and has been very consistent as the starter. He is a great energy player that will get his rebounds and a few dunks.

Chicago at Phoenix

• Vegas Line – Phoenix -8, Over/Under 191
• Chicago Proj. Starters – Augustin-Butler-Dunleavy-Boozer-Noah
• Phoenix Proj. Starters – Dragic-Green-Tucker-Frye-Plumlee

Chicago

The Bulls are coming off of a terrible performance last night against the Kings. There were two important things that we need to note from last night’s game. First off, it appears that Thibs likes D.J. Augustin coming off the bench, even after he showed continued success as a starter. This doesn’t hurt Augustin’s value a ton, but it likely means 5-10 less minutes per game. The second thing is Joakim Noah rant that got him ejected last night. He could be facing a suspension, so make sure to check the player updates throughout the day.

If Noah plays, I think he is in a great spot against the Suns. Noah is one of those players that plays better when he is fired up and he will surely be fired up after last night. If Noah gets suspended, both Taj Gibson and Carlos Boozer would see a major fantasy boost. Taking them both makes a lot of sense if Noah is out. I still think D.J. Augustin is in play tonight, but I do like him more as a starter.

Phoenix

The Suns are 8 point favorites tonight against the Bulls. This game has the lowest total of the night by far and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this game hit the under. The Bulls are ranked 11th or better at defending every position this season. The Suns are all in less than favorable matchups which is never a great thing for fantasy value.

• Goran Dragic – Dragic is the one Suns’ player that I think has some value tonight. He has played well in tough matchups this season and he will have a nice height advantage over Augustin when he is in there. Dragic is the motor of this offense and should be able to put together another productive fantasy game.

Charlotte at Golden State

• Vegas Line – Golden State -10, 200 Over/Under
• Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-McRoberts-Jefferson
• Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Iguodala-Lee-Bogut

Charlotte

The Bobcats are hoping to get Kemba Walker back for tonight’s game, but he is currently listed as a game-time decision so we likely won’t know his status until after the first game tips off. This not only takes him out of play on sites that lock lineups, but it also hurts the value of Ramon Sessions. Sessions is still in play on late-swap sites though.

The Warriors have been very good defensively this season, at least compared to year’s past. They have struggled against PG’s and PF’s though. We’ve already covered the PG position, so let’s cover the PF position. Josh McRoberts has a decent matchup, but he has such limited upside that it’s hard to warrant taking him tonight. Your best bet here is either Al Jefferson or Gerald Henderson, but both have tough matchups against Bogut and Thompson.

Golden State

The Warriors are 10 point favorites tonight in a game that does have the potential to turn into a blowout. I’m not going to factor that in tonight though as there are only 4 games and Mark Jackson hasn’t been shy about playing his starters in the 4th quarter even when the game is out of hand.

The Bobcats have defended PF’s really well this season. They are ranked 5th against PF’s over the entire season and 2nd against them over the last 15 days. That does hurt David Lee fantasy value tonight. He’s also dealing with a shoulder injury that kept him out of the Warrior’s last game.

• Andrew Bogut – Bogut has a great matchup against Jefferson and he is their best defender. He will be asked to play major minutes defending Jefferson and he’s one of my favorite plays at Center tonight. Bogut is never a very popular play, but he’s certainly in play tonight.

• Stephen Curry – Curry will be matched up against Sessions and possibly Walker tonight. I like his matchup in either scenario. Curry is a very boom or bust type of player, but I like the matchup and think he makes a great play if you are looking for a stars and scrubs type of lineup.

• Klay Thompson – Klay is cheap, he’s playing at home, and he has a decent matchup. You can’t ask for much more. With so little SG options tonight, take Klay at home.