NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, March 11th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-03-11 18:59:16

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace

Boston at Indiana

Vegas Line – Indiana -11, 194 Over/Under
Boston Proj. Starters – Rondo-Bayless-Green-Sullinger-Bass
Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Stephenson-George-West-Hibbert

Boston

Welcome to another edition of the daily NBA Grind Down. As always, thanks for reading. The first game of the night features the Celtics and the Pacers. The Celtics are catching the Pacers at the right time as the Pacers are on a 4-game slide and have given up an average of 106 points per game during that stretch. While that’s promising, Vegas think that their slide ends tonight and so do I. This Pacers’ defense is still the #1 ranked defense in the NBA and a little home cooking should get things turned around.

Based on the Vegas line, the Celtics are only projected to score 96 points tonight and they are double-digit underdogs which never bodes well for fantasy value. The Pacers are still ranked 8th or better against all five positions on the floor in terms of fantasy points allowed. The Pacers are also the 2nd best rebounding team in the NBA. Rajon Rondo ($8,100 on FD) would be the one player that I wouldn’t mind as a GPP play, but avoid all Celtics players in your cash game lineups.

Indiana

The Pacers will look to end their 4 game skid tonight against the Celtics. While I do think they pick up a win, it’s not a terrible favorable matchup fantasy wise. The Celtics play at an average pace (96 possessions per game) and are ranked in the top 10 in points allowed per game (99.2). The Pacers will be without C.J. Watson again tonight so look for George Hill to see some extended minutes and for Evan Turner and Lance Stephenson to spend some time running the point.

The Celtics have defended the PG position well this season, but if you watch the Celtics games, Rondo is a very lazy defender. He goes under all screens and often leaves his man open so that he can crash the glass. I don’t mind George Hill as a punt play tonight at PG. The other PG on the Pacers is also in play. Paul George has a nice matchup against the Celtics who are giving up the 5th most FP’s to SF’s over the last 15 days.

Lance Stephenson – I always like to target Stephenson when he is matched up against smaller guards because Stephenson is a great rebounder and he also has a nice post game. He should be able to get into the paint and finish around the rim. Stephenson has had a high floor recently, but he hasn’t had a breakout game in a while. Tonight could change that, Stephenson has a nice matchup against Bayless and he’ll likely spend some time at PG which boosts his value as well.

Roy Hibbert – I really like Hibbert for a bounce back game tonight. The Pacers played 5 games in 8 nights and you could clearly tell that Hibbert was fatigued. Hibbert had a day off yesterday and doesn’t have another game for 3 days. I also like the fact that this game will be played at home where Hibbert is averaging almost 6 more FP’s per game than he does on the road.

Sacramento at Detroit

Vegas Line – Detroit -3.5, 211 Over/Under
Sacramento Proj. Starters – Thomas-McLemore-Gay-Thompson-Cousins
Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Singler-Smith-Monroe-Drummond

Sacramento

The Kings and Pistons is a terrific game to target tonight. These are two teams that are outside of the playoff picture that are loaded with talent, but just don’t seem to play well together. The Pistons are giving up 103.8 points per game this season which is the 4th most in the NBA. While their defense has struggled, the Pistons have been a solid rebounding team. They are ranked 8th in the league in total rebounding percentage (51.5%).

Looking at the DvP rankings of the Pistons, there are favorable matchups all around. The Pistons are ranked 19th or worse against all five positions on the floor in terms of fantasy points allowed. Jason Thompson and Ben McLemore both make decent tournament plays, but it’s hard to trust either of them in cash games even with a very solid matchup.

DeMarcus Cousins – It’s very rare that I recommend taking all three of the Kings’ stud players, but they all have terrific matchups tonight. The Pistons have given up the 5th most FP’s to opposing Centers this season and Cousins has one of the highest usage rates in the NBA (30.5%). If he can stay out of foul trouble against Drummond, he will have a great shot of reaching 50 FP’s tonight.

Rudy Gay – Gay has scored under 30 FP’s in 3 of his last 4 games which has caused his price to drop across the board. Gay is under $8k on both FD and DK and under $15k on DS tonight. This is a great chance to buy low on a star player that has a terrific matchup. The Pistons have given up the 4th most FP’s to opposing SF’s this season.

Isaiah Thomas – IT2’s price is also depressed across the industry ($7.2k on DK is close to a must play). He makes a terrific play tonight against Jennings and the Pistons. While I’m not sure I will be rostering these 3 Kings’ players all in the same lineup, I will have a heavy dose of exposure to them in my cash games across the industry tonight.

Detroit

The Pistons have an equally juicy matchup tonight. The Kings are also giving up 103.8 points per game. The Kings are also very similar to the Pistons in that they are a top 10 team in total rebounding percentage (51.6%). These teams are basically mirror images of each other and both teams should have solid nights offensively. The Kings have defended the Center position well this season, but are ranked 22nd or worse against the other 4 positions on the floor this season.

Andre Drummond has a tough matchup against Cousins and he has been prone to foul trouble this season. For those reasons, he is better served as a GPP play. Greg Monroe makes a nice play as well, but he is always an under-owned player across the industry because there always seem to be better options at his price points. Kyle Singler makes a solid punt play, he’s one of the only players in that 6-8% of the cap range that plays 35 minutes per game.

Josh Smith – J-Smoove is one of those players that I always seem to be on the wrong side of. However, I have a hard time seeing Smith having a bad outing tonight. The Kings are ranked 23rd against the SF position and Smith is at his best when he faces fast-paced teams that are turnover prone.

Brandon Jennings – Jennings is a very frustrating fantasy player because he has spurts of great play and spurts of horrific play. He also can spend long periods of time on the bench. That said, I really like him tonight against IT2 and the Kings. Jennings has only topped 30 FP’s once in his last 6 games, but should easily reach that mark tonight.

San Antonio at Chicago

Vegas Line – San Antonio -4.5, 190.5 Over/Under
San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter
Chicago Proj. Starters – Hinrich-Butler-Dunleavy-Boozer-Noah

San Antonio

This game features two of the worst teams to target fantasy players against. Thanks to the recent struggles of the Pacers, the Bulls are now tied with the Pacers in points allowed per game at only 92.2 per game which leads the league. The Bulls are an extremely slow paced team (92 possessions per game) and are ranked 8th or better against all five positions on the floor in terms of fantasy points allowed. At this point in the season, we know what works in daily fantasy basketball and targeting players against the Bulls does not work.

Chicago

The Bulls have the more favorable matchup of the two teams, but it’s still a tough one. The Spurs play at an average pace (97 possessions per game), but own a top 6 defense as they are holding their opponents to only 98.1 points per game. I’m not going to say to avoid all Bulls’ players tonight, but I think you have to pick your spots. I like Joakim Noah price on DK ($8.5k) and I think D.J. Augustin is under-priced on a few sites across the industry as well. Augustin is finally back to playing 30+ minutes per game and the Spurs are ranked 28th against the PG position this season.

Portland at Memphis

Vegas Line – Memphis -3.5, 198.5 Over/Under
Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez
Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Prince-Randolph-Gasol

Portland

This game features two opposing styles of play. We’ve talked about this on numerous occasions this season, but when a fast pace team plays against a slow paced team, the average number of possessions is typically somewhere in the middle. That means a few less possessions for the fast paced team compared to their season average and a few extra possessions for the slower paced teams. This means that the matchup favors the Grizzlies and does not bode well for the fantasy value of the Blazers.

The Grizzlies are holding their opponents to 94.1 points per game this season which is the 3rd fewest in the NBA. While the Blazers will likely top that mark, the Grizzlies should be able to hold the Blazers well below their season average of 107.7 points. The Grizzlies are ranked 12th or better against all positions on the floor and I will be avoiding all Blazers players tonight.

Memphis

The Grizzlies actually have a very nice matchup tonight. I typically don’t play too many Grizzlies players because of their pace of play and their large number of contributors offensively, but I like the matchup tonight. The Blazers are giving up 102.8 points per game this season and have consistently struggled to defend two positions. They are ranked 28th and 17th against PG’s and Centers.

Mike Conley – Conley is never very popular play, but he’s a very solid cash game play tonight. His price is depressed across the industry and he is facing a defense that has surrendered the 3rd most FP’s to PG’s this season. Conley has quietly topped 30 FP’s in 4 of his last 5 games and should be able to reach that mark again tonight.

Marc Gasol – The two things that a lot of people like to target in cash games are consistency and a high floor. Gasol has done those two things as well as anyone. Gasol has topped 28 FP’s in each of his last 8 games. If you are looking for a safe play at Center that you can count on, Gasol is your guy.

Milwaukee at Minnesota

Vegas Line – Minnesota -14.5, 214 Over/Under
Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Wolters-Middleton-Ilyasova-Pachulia
Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Brewer-Love-Pekovic

Milwaukee

These games are always tough to analyze. The total of this game is set at 214 points which makes this game very attractive, but then we have that pesky 14.5 point spread that we have to worry about. We’ve documented the fantasy impact of potential blowouts and basically over the long run, the big underdogs and the star players have a hard time reaching value. While anything can happen in the NBA, all we can do is make our best judgment on the information available to us.

The matchup is a solid one for the Bucks, but I’m not sure if I will be targeting any of them in my cash games. Instead, treat them as nice upside plays against an uptempo Wolves team. Ersan Ilyasova has really played well over the last two weeks, Khris Middleton has scored at least 23 FP’s in 6 of his last 7 games, and the surprising Jeff Adrien could see some extra playing time in a blowout.

Minnesota

The Wolves have a great matchup tonight, but once again the question is whether or not their starters will see enough playing time in order to hit value. Before we get into my thoughts, let’s take a look at the matchup. The Bucks are giving up 102.4 points per game, they are ranked 25th in total rebounding percentage (48.2%), and they are ranked 18th or worse against SG’s, SF’s, PF’s, and Centers in terms of fantasy points allowed.

In my opinion, I think most of the Wolves starters should be able to hit value in only 3 quarters of play. That means that they are all still in play and that you would get the added bonus if the Bucks happen to keep this game close. Kevin Love may be the one exception, but we have seen him hit value in 3 quarters before and he has a terrific matchup against a weak interior defense that also struggled to rebound the ball. Kevin Martin makes a nice play as well and offers a nice upside play at the SG position which can be a tough one to fill on FD.

Nikola Pekovic – Pek’s price is adjusted to his current minutes restriction which is right around 30 minutes. We don’t have to worry about a blowout with Pek tonight, because he will likely be close to 30 minutes by the end of the 3rd quarter if this game gets out of hand. Pek has topped 24 FP’s in every game since coming back from injury and he should dominate the weak interior defense of the Bucks.