NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, March 29th - Page Two
Washington Wizards at Golden State Warriors – 10:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Golden State -13, 227 Over/Under
- Washington Wizards Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Porter-Morris-Gortat
- Golden State Warriors Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Bogut
| Washington Wizards | Golden State Warriors | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 227.0 |  | Vegas Total | 227.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 13.0 | Vegas Sprd | -13.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 107.0 | Team Proj. | 120.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 100.30 | Team Pace | 101.90 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | John Wall | Brad Beal | Otto Porter | Markieff Morris | Marcin Gortat | Proj. Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Andrew Bogut | |
| Opp. Season | 26 | 11 | 13 | 17 | 22 | Opp. Season | 15 | 18 | 24 | 7 | 8 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 17 | 13 | 6 | 23 | 25 | Last 3 Weeks | 21 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 4 | |
Washington Wizards
Record: 36-37 — Road: 17-18 — Last 10: 6-4
- Washington Wizards Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 103.5 (10 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 107.0 (5 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 3.5 (6 of 12)
The Wizards have won six of their last ten games, but are still two and a half games behind the Pistons for the last playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. They can’t afford to lose any more games, which is tough, because they have to take on the Warriors tonight. The Wizards are 13-point underdogs in this matchup, but they are projected to score 107 points.
- Golden State Warriors Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.3 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.9 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 2.4 (9 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 201.4 (16 of 30)
The Warriors have been an exploitable matchup at times this season, but only when the game stays within striking distance. While the 13-point spread does worry me a little, the Wizards are in must-win mode right now. They have tightened their rotation and I expect them to go down swinging. This may not be a popular take, but I feel like the minutes for the starters on the Wizards are more secure than the minutes for the starters on the Warriors. Bradley Beal and Otto Porter are both fine GPP options tonight.
- Injury Watch:
Markieff Morris (Probable)
Alan Anderson (Questionable)
Elite Plays
| Marcin Gortat | |||||
 | FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$6,600 | Salary:$6,600 | ||||
| Position:C | Position:C | ||||
| FP/Min:0.98 | FP/Min:1.05 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 30.4 | 27.6 | -2.8 | 34.5 | 4.1 |
| FPPG (FD) | 29.9 | 26.0 | -3.8 | 32.7 | 2.9 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 15.4 | 14.9 | -0.5 | 14.1 | -1.4 |
As mentioned above, the Wizards have tightened their rotation down the stretch. Gortat has seen a major boost in minutes and it has led to a nice boost in fantasy production as well. Over his last five games, he is averaging 32.7 fantasy points in just under 35 minutes per contest. For me, it comes down to two options at center tonight – Gortat and Ian Mahinmi.
Secondary Plays
| John Wall | |||||
 | FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$9,700 | Salary:$9,900 | ||||
| Position:PG | Position:PG | ||||
| FP/Min:1.17 | FP/Min:1.29 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 36.1 | 37.2 | 1.1 | 38.8 | 2.7 |
| FPPG (FD) | 42.4 | 44.3 | 1.9 | 43.7 | 1.4 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 24.9 | 24.6 | -0.3 | 24.4 | -0.5 |
Wall has been on a tear recently, averaging 44.3 fantasy points over his last ten games. With the Wizards in a must-win situation, Wall should see all of the minutes that he can handle against the Warriors, who are ranked 26th against point guards this season. While I have a hard time using him in cash games, Wall is an excellent GPP play tonight.
Golden State Warriors
Record: 66-7 — Home: 35-0 — Last 10: 9-1
- Golden State Warriors Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 115.5 (1 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 120.0 (1 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 4.5 (3 of 12)
The Warriors have won nine of their last ten games and are on pace to break a couple of records. They are a perfect 35-0 at home and they will try to keep that streak alive tonight against the Wizards. The Warriors are 13-point favorites tonight. They are projected to score 120 points, which gives them the highest team total and the third highest projected point differential on the board.
- Washington Wizards Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.4 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.7 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.9 (25 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 199.7 (14 of 30)
The Wizards have been playing better defense recently, but Vegas isn’t worried about that one bit. The Warriors are projected to score 120 points, which is one of the highest team totals that we have seen this season. The way the salaries shake out tonight, the Warriors will likely go under-owned in both cash games and tournaments. I will likely be looking elsewhere in cash games, but the Warriors are elite GPP options.
- Injury Watch:
Andre Iguodala (Questionable)
Brandon Rush (Questionable)
Festus Ezeli (Out)
Elite Plays
Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and Klay Thompson are all excellent GPP plays, but none stand out as must starts in cash games.
Secondary Plays
| Klay Thompson | |||||
 | FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salary:$7,400 | Salary:$7,100 | ||||
| Position:SG | Position:SG | ||||
| FP/Min:0.94 | FP/Min:1.03 | ||||
| Statistics | Season Average | Last 10 Games | Last 10 +/- | Last 5 Games | Last 5 +/- |
| Minutes | 33.1 | 33.3 | 0.2 | 35.6 | 2.5 |
| FPPG (FD) | 31.3 | 35.9 | 4.7 | 36.7 | 5.5 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 22.6 | 24.3 | 1.7 | 24.8 | 2.2 |
Thompson has been on fire in his last three games, scoring 32, 32, and 40 actual points. He doesn’t offer a whole lot in terms of peripheral statistics, but he doesn’t need to when he is getting 20+ shot attempts a game. He is the one Warriors’ player that I am considering in cash games. The Wizards have really struggled to defend wing players this season.