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NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, March 29th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-03-30 04:25:44

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Brooklyn Nets at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM

Brooklyn Nets Orlando Magic
brooklynnba Vegas Total 211.5 orlandonba Vegas Total 211.5
Vegas Sprd 6.5 Vegas Sprd -6.5
Team Proj. 102.5 Team Proj. 109.0
Team Pace 97.00 Team Pace 97.90
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Shane Larkin Sergey Karasev Bojan Bogdanovic Thaddeus Young Brook Lopez Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Victor Oladipo Evan Fournier Aaron Gordon Dewayne Dedmon
Opp. Season 17 5 16 21 20 Opp. Season 23 23 22 16 25
Last 3 Weeks 9 5 7 21 30 Last 3 Weeks 2 28 28 13 22

Brooklyn Nets

Record: 21-52 — Road: 7-28 — Last 10: 3-7

The Nets have lost seven of their last ten games and sport a disappointing 7-28 record on the road. They are 6.5-point underdogs tonight, as they head to Orlando to take on the Magic. The Nets have the third lowest team total at only 102.5 points, but they are projected to score 3.8 points above their scoring average.

The Magic have not fared well defensively. Over the last few weeks, they have been one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA. They are now ranked 15th or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The main issue with the Nets is their rotation. With nothing to play for, they are trying to get a look at a number of their young players. In their game last night, they had 11 players that saw at least 12 minutes. We have also heard rumors that Brook Lopez and Thaddeus Young are candidates to be shut down for the season. This doesn’t mean that we can’t play the Nets, but we shouldn’t feel as secure about their minutes.

Elite Plays

Shane Larkin
shane-larkin-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,700 Salary:$3,800
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.77 FP/Min:0.83
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 21.2 23.4 2.2 24.2 3.0
FPPG (FD) 16.3 17.3 1.0 20.2 3.9
TO-Adj. Usage 15.4 14.9 -0.4 16.5 1.1

Since entering the starting lineup three games ago, Larkin has played at least 27 minutes and has scored at least 27 fantasy points in each contest. There is a small chance that he cracks the 30-minute mark, but he is my favorite cheap point guard in this slate. He draws a pretty decent matchup against the Magic, who have been mediocre at best against point guards this season.

Secondary Plays

Brook Lopez
brook-lopez-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,100 Salary:$7,300
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.06 FP/Min:1.13
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.0 35.2 1.2 35.1 1.1
FPPG (FD) 35.9 37.2 1.3 35.0 -0.9
TO-Adj. Usage 22.7 21.9 -0.8 22.0 -0.6

If we knew that Lopez was guaranteed to play 35 minutes, I would be all over him on DraftKings at a price of only $7,300. His minutes have yet to take a hit, but the Nets are playing in the tail end of a back-to-back tonight. The matchup is certainly in his favor, as the Magic are ranked dead last against centers over the last three weeks. The upside is there, but I’m not fully confident that he sees 35 minutes. For that reason, I see him as more of a tournament play tonight.

Thaddeus Young
thaddeus-young-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,400 Salary:$6,700
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.94 FP/Min:0.99
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.1 32.7 -0.4 30.6 -2.5
FPPG (FD) 31.0 31.6 0.6 28.0 -3.0
TO-Adj. Usage 18.0 17.8 -0.2 16.2 -1.8

Trends are converging for Young, but not in the right way. His minutes are way down recently, averaging only 30.6 over his last five games. To make matters worse, he has a poor track record against Orlando this season, scoring less than 30 fantasy points in each of their three meetings. Young has been a daily fantasy stud this season, but he is a secondary play tonight on the road.

Orlando Magic

Record: 30-43 — Home: 19-17 — Last 10: 3-7

The Magic have lost seven of their last ten games and are only 6.5-point favorites tonight against the lowly Nets at home. This is a favorable matchup for fantasy production though, and that is evident in their team total. The Magic are projected to score 109 points, which gives them the fourth highest team total and the highest projected point differential at +8.1.

The Nets have been an exploitable matchup this season, especially when the game is expected to stay close. They are ranked 22nd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Victor Oladipo is expected to play tonight, while Nikola Vucevic and Ersan Ilyasova have already been ruled out.

Elite Plays

Elfrid Payton
elfrid-payton-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,700 Salary:$5,800
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.84 FP/Min:0.91
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 29.3 29.2 -0.1 29.2 -0.1
FPPG (FD) 24.8 28.0 3.3 28.0 3.3
TO-Adj. Usage 18.1 18.7 0.6 18.7 0.6

Payton’s recent production has been great, scoring 53, 31, and 37 fantasy points in his last three games. Some of that was thanks to the fact that Victor Oladipo missed a couple of games, but Payton has put up those stat lines in some difficult matchups. Even though Oladipo is expected to play, Nikola Vucevic has already been ruled out. With Vucevic off of the floor this season, Payton has a usage rate of 20, while averaging 0.91 FP/min.

Secondary Plays

Victor Oladipo
victor-oladipo-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,400 Salary:$7,500
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.91 FP/Min:0.98
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.9 38.2 5.3 40.5 7.6
FPPG (FD) 29.9 39.9 10.0 36.6 6.7
TO-Adj. Usage 19.9 21.4 1.5 20.1 0.2

Oladipo has missed the last two games with a wrist injury. While that is a small concern, he is fully expected to play tonight. He comes into this game in excellent form, averaging 36.6 fantasy points in his last five games. Like Elfrid Payton, Oladipo sees a nice boost when Nikola Vucevic is out. With Vucevic off the floor this season, Oladipo has a usage rate of 26, while averaging 0.98 FP/min.

Evan Fournier
evan-fournier-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,500 Salary:$5,000
Position:SF Position:SG
FP/Min:0.71 FP/Min:0.78
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.2 33.2 1.0 32.3 0.1
FPPG (FD) 23.0 23.9 0.9 21.1 -1.9
TO-Adj. Usage 17.0 19.0 2.0 18.4 1.5

Fournier isn’t an exciting play tonight, but he continues to play 30+ minutes per game and he draws a nice matchup tonight against the Nets. On the season, Brooklyn is ranked 23rd against shooting guards and 22nd against small forwards. Fournier has also been in decent form, averaging 23.9 fantasy points over his last ten games. I wouldn’t start my lineup with Fournier, but he is a stop-gap option at SG/SF.

Chicago Bulls at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM

Chicago Bulls Indiana Pacers
chicagonba Vegas Total 201.5 indiananba Vegas Total 201.5
Vegas Sprd 7.5 Vegas Sprd -7.5
Team Proj. 97.0 Team Proj. 104.5
Team Pace 98.60 Team Pace 99.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Derrick Rose Jimmy Butler Mike Dunleavy Taj Gibson Pau Gasol Proj. Starter George Hill Monta Ellis Paul George Myles Turner Ian Mahinmi
Opp. Season 10 10 6 8 11 Opp. Season 28 15 24 26 24
Last 3 Weeks 10 4 17 4 13 Last 3 Weeks 26 18 21 25 12

Chicago Bulls

Record: 36-37 — Road: 12-23 — Last 10: 4-6

The Bulls have lost six of their last ten games, including two losses to the Knicks and another one to the Magic. They are basically another loss or two away from being out of the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Pacers and they are playing in the second half of a back-to-back. The Bulls are only projected to score 97 points, which gives them the lowest team total and the worst projected point differential on the board tonight.

The Pacers have been terrific on the defensive end of the floor this season, ranking seventh or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. E’Twaun Moore and Cameron Bairstow are not expected to play tonight. The Bulls said that they were going to loosen the minute limits for Jimmy Butler and Pau Gasol, and last night they ended up playing 35 and 34 minutes respectively. While Gasol is an interesting play, I will be avoiding Butler in all league formats. He hasn’t looked the same since coming back from injury.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Pau Gasol
pau-gasol-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,600 Salary:$7,200
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.22 FP/Min:1.31
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 31.8 27.2 -4.6 24.0 -7.8
FPPG (FD) 39.0 34.1 -4.8 29.9 -9.1
TO-Adj. Usage 21.3 19.7 -1.7 17.9 -3.4

My hope is that the Bulls will give us a general idea of how many minutes Gasol will play tonight. He was previously on a 25 minute limit and then he played 34 last night against the Hawks. I don’t expect him to play that many minutes tonight, but he is certainly worth a look on DraftKings if you think he will play 30 minutes. Gasol is averaging an elite 1.31 FP/min on DraftKings this season.

Derrick Rose
derrick-rose-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,800 Salary:$5,800
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.86 FP/Min:0.91
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.0 32.2 0.2 32.7 0.7
FPPG (FD) 27.5 28.0 0.5 28.3 0.8
TO-Adj. Usage 23.5 23.6 0.2 22.8 -0.7

Rose is another Bulls’ player that I will not be looking toward for cash games, but that could be worth a look for tournaments on DraftKings. Despite averaging 28 fantasy points over his last ten games, Rose is still priced under $6,000 on DraftKings. The biggest issue with Rose is his matchup. George Hill is a competent defender and the Pacers are ranked tenth against point guards this season.

Indiana Pacers

Record: 39-34 — Home: 23-13 — Last 10: 6-4

The Pacers have won six of their last ten games and are now 39-34 overall. They are currently in seventh place in the Eastern Conference, but they only have a half-game lead over the Pistons. Indiana is listed as a 7.5-point favorite tonight against the Bulls. They are projected to score 104.5 points, which seems a bit low given the way Chicago has played defense recently.

The Bulls are ranked right around the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season. Somehow that equates to them allowing the fifth most fantasy points per game. The Pacers’ offense is in a good spot as a whole, but their low team total makes me less bullish on them tonight for DFS purposes.

Elite Plays

Ian Mahinmi
ian-mahinmi-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,100 Salary:$4,900
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:0.88 FP/Min:0.93
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 25.5 29.3 3.8 31.3 5.8
FPPG (FD) 22.5 23.6 1.1 24.6 2.1
TO-Adj. Usage 12.6 13.8 1.3 14.4 1.8

Center is ugly tonight. There isn’t a single option that I feel confident in, which is what has to happen for Mahinmi to be listed as an elite play. His minutes are trending upward, averaging 31.3 over his last five games. His production is also heading in the right direction. He draws a terrific matchup tonight against the Bulls, who are ranked 24th against centers. He seems like a safe play at his price point, but keep in mind that he is still Ian Mahinmi.

Secondary Plays

Paul George
paul-george-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,700 Salary:$8,500
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.11 FP/Min:1.21
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.3 34.3 -1.0 33.6 -1.7
FPPG (FD) 39.3 37.9 -1.4 39.0 -0.3
TO-Adj. Usage 25.2 25.6 0.4 26.6 1.4

George is a nice pivot off of Kevin Durant for tournaments. For cash game purposes, it makes sense to find the extra salary cap to get up to Durant. George comes into tonight’s game in solid form, averaging 39 fantasy points over his last five games. He will likely draw the defense of Jimmy Butler, but George has played well in this matchup this season, scoring 38, 41, and 34 fantasy points in their three meetings.

Monta Ellis
monta-ellis-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,800 Salary:$6,300
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.80 FP/Min:0.86
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.4 34.9 0.5 34.7 0.3
FPPG (FD) 27.6 29.8 2.3 27.9 0.3
TO-Adj. Usage 18.0 16.4 -1.6 15.6 -2.4

If we assume that Jimmy Butler will be on Paul George, that means that Mike Dunleavy and Doug McDermott are going to be on Monta Ellis. I like his chances in both of those matchups. On the season, I have been under-weight on Ellis compared to the field, but tonight is a good time to target him in tournaments. His ownership should be low with James Harden and J.R. Smith in such great spots at shooting guard.

George Hill
george-hill-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,200 Salary:$4,700
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.69 FP/Min:0.74
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.7 32.3 -2.4 31.5 -3.2
FPPG (FD) 23.8 22.9 -0.9 24.3 0.5
TO-Adj. Usage 13.9 12.9 -1.1 12.2 -1.7

Point guards against the Bulls has been easy money this season. I really wanted to play Jeff Teague last night (as I mentioned in the Grind Down), but it was tough to do with all of the great point guard plays. Hill doesn’t have a high usage rate for a point guard, but he should see minutes in the mid-30s tonight against a Bulls’ defense that is ranked 28th against point guards this season.

Charlotte Hornets at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM

Charlotte Hornets Philadelphia 76ers
charlottenba Vegas Total 208.0 philadelphianba Vegas Total 208.0
Vegas Sprd -11.5 Vegas Sprd 11.5
Team Proj. 109.8 Team Proj. 98.3
Team Pace 97.80 Team Pace 100.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Courtney Lee Nicolas Batum Marvin Williams Cody Zeller Proj. Starter Ishmael Smith Isaiah Canaan Hollis Thompson Jerami Grant Carl Landry
Opp. Season 27 20 29 28 30 Opp. Season 11 12 19 23 15
Last 3 Weeks 29 24 25 22 20 Last 3 Weeks 15 15 5 15 19

Charlotte Hornets

Record: 42-31 — Road: 15-20 — Last 10: 7-3

The Hornets have been playing their best basketball of the season. They have won seven of their last ten games and have a real shot at hosting a first round playoff series. They should be able to pick up a win tonight against the Sixers. The Hornets are listed as 11.5-point favorites with an implied team total of 109.8 points. They have the second highest projected point differential at +6.6.

The Sixers have been one of the best matchups in all of daily fantasy basketball this season. They are ranked 25th or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The Hornets still have a lot to play for and their offense sees a massive boost overall in this matchup. The only question tonight is whether or not the Sixers can keep this game within striking distance. As crazy as it sounds, I see the Hornets as strictly GPP plays tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Kemba Walker
kemba-walker-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,800 Salary:$8,200
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.00 FP/Min:1.07
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.9 34.9 -1.0 32.6 -3.3
FPPG (FD) 36.0 31.1 -4.9 26.9 -9.1
TO-Adj. Usage 23.1 21.6 -1.5 21.8 -1.3

I often mention Walker’s glaring home/road splits. Even though this game is being played in Philadelphia, it actually helps his fantasy appeal, as the game has a better chance of staying relatively close. Walker has really played well in this matchup this season, scoring 39 and 46 fantasy points in their last two meetings. Walker is an excellent tournament play tonight, but Kyrie Irving is a better play overall and he’s a bit cheaper as well.

Nicolas Batum
nicolas-batum-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,800 Salary:$7,400
Position:SF Position:SG
FP/Min:0.88 FP/Min:0.97
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.6 36.2 0.6 34.9 -0.7
FPPG (FD) 31.5 37.7 6.2 35.9 4.4
TO-Adj. Usage 17.8 20.5 2.7 20.2 2.5

Batum has taken on a huge role in the Hornets’ offense over their last ten games. During that stretch, he is averaging 37.7 fantasy points with a usage rate over 20. He should have another solid outing tonight against the Sixers, who don’t defend small forwards particularly well. However, if you are paying up for a SG on DraftKings or a SF on FanDuel, I’d rather go with James Harden or Kevin Durant.

Jeremy Lin
jeremy-lin-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,200 Salary:$4,200
Position:SG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.79 FP/Min:0.85
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 25.9 24.3 -1.6 26.8 0.9
FPPG (FD) 20.5 19.4 -1.0 25.1 4.6
TO-Adj. Usage 18.4 18.0 -0.4 19.8 1.4

Lin has been on a nice little run over his last five games. Has played at least 23 minutes in every game during that stretch, averaging 25.1 fantasy points during that stretch. His price has come up across the industry, but the matchup against the Sixers more than makes up for it. I still prefer Shane Larkin in cash games, but Lin is a strong GPP play tonight.

Philadelphia 76ers

Record: 9-65 — Home: 6-30 — Last 10: 1-9

The Sixers have lost nine of their last ten games and basically mailed their season in a couple of months ago. They are double-digit underdogs tonight at home against the surging Hornets. This is not a great matchup for fantasy production. The Sixers are only projected to score 98.3 points, which gives them the second lowest team total and the fourth lowest projected point differential on the board tonight.

The Hornets have played some good defense this season. They are ranked inside the top ten in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. While I don’t love the spot for the Sixers as a whole, there are a few injuries that could open some value plays up. Nerlens Noel, Jerami Grant, and Richaun Holmes are all listed as questionable.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Ishmael Smith
ish-smith-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,800 Salary:$5,900
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.97 FP/Min:1.04
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.3 32.6 4.3 33.1 4.8
FPPG (FD) 27.6 30.9 3.3 33.5 6.0
TO-Adj. Usage 21.8 20.5 -1.3 19.5 -2.3

Given the fact that there are so many strong point guard plays, I will only be looking to roster Smith in tournaments. He comes into tonight’s game in great form though, averaging 33.5 fantasy points in just over 33 minutes in his last five outings. The Hornets haven’t been particularly effective against opposing point guards and Smith is playing at home, which never hurts.

Robert Covington
robert-covington-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,100 Salary:$6,000
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.85 FP/Min:0.95
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 27.6 26.3 -1.3 29.3 1.7
FPPG (FD) 23.4 27.6 4.2 30.7 7.3
TO-Adj. Usage 16.4 20.3 4.0 21.1 4.7

Covington has come off the bench since returning from injury, but his minutes are trending upward and he has scored at least 30 fantasy points in each of his last three games. There is a chance that he could return to the starting lineup tonight and if that’s the case, we can project him for around 35 minutes compared to the 30-32 off the bench.

Carl Landry
carl-landry-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,700 Salary:$4,500
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.03 FP/Min:1.05
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 14.8 21.0 6.2 22.4 7.6
FPPG (FD) 15.2 21.9 6.6 25.8 10.6
TO-Adj. Usage 20.8 20.5 -0.3 22.6 1.8

This pick hinges on the availability of Nerlens Noel and Jerami Grant. If one (or both) is out tonight, Landry would likely draw another start. He doesn’t have a ton of minute upside, but he is averaging 1.03 FP/min this season. If he starts, he should see around 25 minutes of action, which is more than enough time for him to reach value at this price.

Hollis Thompson
hollis-thompson-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,500 Salary:$4,300
Position:SF Position:SG
FP/Min:0.59 FP/Min:0.64
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.0 32.8 4.8 33.0 5.0
FPPG (FD) 16.5 23.2 6.7 23.9 7.4
TO-Adj. Usage 13.3 15.2 1.9 15.1 1.9

Thompson is a player that is not afraid to take shots. He has been more of a boom or bust play off the bench, but he has shown some consistency as a starter. Over his last ten games, he is averaging 23.2 fantasy points in 32.8 minutes per contest. Thompson is a fine play tonight, but I certainly wouldn’t treat him as a must start.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Detroit Pistons – 7:30 PM

Oklahoma City Thunder Detroit Pistons
oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 215.5 detroitnba Vegas Total 215.5
Vegas Sprd -3.0 Vegas Sprd 3.0
Team Proj. 109.3 Team Proj. 106.3
Team Pace 99.40 Team Pace 97.60
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Andre Roberson Kevin Durant Serge Ibaka Steven Adams Proj. Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Tobias Harris Marcus Morris Andre Drummond
Opp. Season 12 7 5 12 10 Opp. Season 18 21 9 9 4
Last 3 Weeks 23 2 22 24 27 Last 3 Weeks 6 10 16 11 3

Oklahoma City Thunder

Record: 52-22 — Road: 22-13 — Last 10: 8-2

The Thunder have won eight of their last ten games and are all but locked into the three seed in the Western Conference. They are not expected to rest any of their starters yet though, so we can target them with confidence tonight. The Thunder are listed as 3-point favorites tonight against the Pistons. They have a team total of 109.3 points, which is the third highest team total on the board.

The Pistons are typically not a team that we like to target players against. They are ranked 14th or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. However, when it comes to the Thunder, we are more concerned with the spread than we are with the matchup. Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant have shown time and time again that they are matchup proof.

Elite Plays

Russell Westbrook
russell-westbrook-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,600 Salary:$10,300
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.42 FP/Min:1.56
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.5 33.4 -1.1 33.4 -1.1
FPPG (FD) 49.0 47.8 -1.3 48.4 -0.6
TO-Adj. Usage 28.4 27.3 -1.1 28.1 -0.3

Last night was a perfect example of why the spread is more important than the matchup for the Thunder. When the game stays close, Westbrook and Kevin Durant play more minutes. The two finished with 63 and 61 fantasy points respectively last night against the Raptors. Westbrook is the premier play at point guard again tonight. While I don’t consider him a must with all of the other options at the position, he certainly has the highest floor and ceiling of any point guard tonight.

Kevin Durant
kevin-durant-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,300 Salary:$10,000
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.29 FP/Min:1.40
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.9 33.7 -2.2 34.0 -1.9
FPPG (FD) 46.2 45.0 -1.2 46.6 0.5
TO-Adj. Usage 25.9 27.0 1.1 24.9 -1.0

Durant also played well in last night’s win over the Raptors. If I had to choose between Durant and Russell Westbrook tonight, I’d give the edge to Durant thanks to the positional difference. There are very few options at small forward, yet a ton of great point guard plays. Durant should see minutes in the mid to high-30s and he should be the most popular small forward in play tonight.

Secondary Plays

NONE

Detroit Pistons

Record: 39-35 — Home: 24-13 — Last 10: 6-4

The Pistons have won six of their last ten games and control their own destiny in the Eastern Conference. Barring a late season collapse, they should be the seventh or eighth seed. Tonight they host the Thunder in what will be a pace-up game for Detroit. The Pistons are projected to score 106.3 points, which gives them the fourth highest projected point differential at +3.8.

The Thunder have been a slightly below-average matchup for fantasy production this season. They are ranked 14th or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The reason to like the Pistons tonight is twofold. First, they still have something to play for, which can’t be said about a lot of teams. And second, they have a high team total compared to their scoring average on the season.

Elite Plays

Reggie Jackson
reggie-jackson-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,000 Salary:$5,800
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.00 FP/Min:1.09
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.6 28.9 -1.7 28.8 -1.8
FPPG (FD) 30.7 27.0 -3.7 23.6 -7.2
TO-Adj. Usage 25.5 24.5 -1.0 22.9 -2.6

The Thunder have a very stout defensive frontcourt. They are ranked ninth against power forwards and fourth against centers. The way to attack Oklahoma City in DFS is by targeting backcourt players against them. Jackson hasn’t been in the best of form recently, but he should see 30+ minutes in a favorable matchup. He also has the revenge factor brewing against his former team. In his one meeting against the Thunder in his career, Jackson put up 31 fantasy points.

Secondary Plays

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
kentavious-caldwell-pope-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,600 Salary:$5,300
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.66 FP/Min:0.70
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 36.7 36.8 0.1 36.5 -0.2
FPPG (FD) 24.1 28.1 4.0 25.2 1.1
TO-Adj. Usage 16.2 19.3 3.1 17.6 1.5

With J.R. Smith being in such a good spot, KCP becomes more of a tournament play tonight. He is a nice pivot off of Smith though, as he should see 35+ minutes in a pace-up game for Detroit. KCP also comes into this game in good form, averaging 28.1 fantasy points over his last ten games.

Houston Rockets at Cleveland Cavaliers – 8:00 PM

Houston Rockets Cleveland Cavaliers
houstonnba Vegas Total 211.5 clevelandnba Vegas Total 211.5
Vegas Sprd 2.0 Vegas Sprd -2.0
Team Proj. 104.8 Team Proj. 106.8
Team Pace 100.00 Team Pace 95.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Donatas Motiejunas Dwight Howard Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith Richard Jefferson Kevin Love Timofey Mozgov
Opp. Season 16 8 3 1 1 Opp. Season 13 24 30 29 19
Last 3 Weeks 11 26 8 3 7 Last 3 Weeks 12 22 29 18 28

Houston Rockets

Record: 36-38 — Road: 16-22 — Last 10: 4-6

The Rockets have lost six of their last ten games, but are somehow still tied with the Mavericks for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. Tonight’s game against the Cavaliers will be treated as a must win and Houston catches a break, as Cleveland decided to rest LeBron James. The Rockets are listed as 2-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 211.5 points.

The Cavaliers have been one of the best defensive teams in the NBA this season, ranking third or better in points allowed per game, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The difficult matchup is offset by the fact that LeBron James is out and by the fact that the Rockets are one of the few teams that absolutely need a win tonight. Dwight Howard price is awfully enticing tonight, but he has a usage rate under ten over his last ten games. The Cavaliers are also ranked first against centers this season.

Elite Plays

James Harden
james-harden-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$11,000 Salary:$10,400
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:1.25 FP/Min:1.37
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 37.9 38.2 0.3 40.9 3.0
FPPG (FD) 47.4 49.1 1.7 55.9 8.4
TO-Adj. Usage 27.5 26.0 -1.5 26.0 -1.5

I see Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love as close to must plays tonight. If we target both of them, we will likely only have enough salary for one player above $10,000. It’s a difficult decision to make, but Harden may be my favorite superstar in this slate. The Rockets have more to play for than the Thunder or Warriors. Harden’s track record against Cleveland has produced mixed results, scoring 65, 38, 55, and 24 fantasy points in their last four meetings. He does see a small boost with LeBron James out though, and he should play 40+ minutes once again.

Secondary Plays

Michael Beasley
michael-beasley-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,900 Salary:$4,600
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.16 FP/Min:1.20
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 19.1 21.6 2.5 22.9 3.8
FPPG (FD) 22.2 24.5 2.4 23.0 0.9
TO-Adj. Usage 25.3 25.0 -0.3 24.2 -1.1

Outside of James Harden, there isn’t a ton to love tonight on the Rockets. Patrick Beverley is a decent punt, but I’d rather save a few dollars and go down to Shane Larkin. Beasley is a decent GPP play in a game where Houston may need his scoring off the bench. He is too inconsistent to use in cash games, but he has flashed 35 fantasy point type of upside this season.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Record: 52-21 — Home: 30-6 — Last 10: 7-3

The Cavaliers have won seven of their last ten games and currently hold a three-game lead over the Raptors for the top seed in the Eastern Conference. That three game lead has afforded them the ability to rest some players. LeBron James will get the night off tonight and consequently, the Cavaliers are only listed as 2-point favorites.

The Rockets are always one of the top matchups to target in daily fantasy basketball. On the season, they are ranked 22nd or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The Cavaliers are projected to score 106.8 points, which is very high considering the fact that LeBron James isn’t playing. The rest of the Cavaliers’ lineup sees a major fantasy boost with James out.

Elite Plays

Kyrie Irving
kyrie-irving-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,000 Salary:$6,900
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.97 FP/Min:1.03
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 31.1 34.0 2.9 31.5 0.4
FPPG (FD) 30.0 29.5 -0.5 24.6 -5.5
TO-Adj. Usage 25.5 24.2 -1.3 20.2 -5.2

Irving let a lot of people down a couple of weeks ago when Kevin Love was out. We should just chalk that up to a bad game though, as he played limited minutes and was even benched at one point in the first half. Irving has an elite, and I mean ELITE usage rate when LeBron James is not on the floor. This season, his usage jumps to 41 without James on the court. Irving is the first player that I am locking into my cash game lineups tonight.

Kevin Love
kevin-love-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,900 Salary:$6,800
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.02 FP/Min:1.11
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 31.8 28.8 -3.0 28.8 -3.0
FPPG (FD) 32.4 30.4 -2.0 32.3 -0.1
TO-Adj. Usage 19.8 21.8 2.0 22.6 2.8

Love may not see quite the same usage boost as Kyrie Irving, but his usage still spikes when LeBron James is off the floor. Love should be a focal point of the Cavaliers’ offense tonight and he is always a threat to post a double-double. The fact that he is facing the Rockets is only icing on the cake. Houston is ranked 29th against power forwards and 23rd in rebounding differential this season.

J.R. Smith
j.r.-smith-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,300 Salary:$4,400
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.66 FP/Min:0.72
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.6 29.7 -0.9 29.4 -1.2
FPPG (FD) 20.2 19.0 -1.2 18.8 -1.4
TO-Adj. Usage 16.2 15.2 -1.0 13.8 -2.4

This is one of the few nights this season where I am planning on using three Cavaliers in cash games. Smith also sees a nice usage boost without LeBron James in the lineup. His usage jumps to 23 without James on the floor. Smith is cheap and he fills a need at shooting guard, which is arguably the thinnest position on the board tonight.

Secondary Plays

Iman Shumpert
iman-shumpert-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,500 Salary:$3,200
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.60 FP/Min:0.65
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 24.0 22.2 -1.8 19.5 -4.5
FPPG (FD) 14.4 12.9 -1.5 12.3 -2.1
TO-Adj. Usage 11.0 8.4 -2.6 9.6 -1.4

Shumpert is expected to play and start tonight against the Rockets. While he averages a pedestrian 0.60 FP/min this season, he should see close to 30 minutes in a terrific matchup against the Rockets. He is a viable punt play in all league formats tonight.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious