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NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, May 2nd

by Bryan Pauquette (bryanpauquette) Last Updated 2017-05-03 03:23:09

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Washington Wizards at Boston Celtics – 8:00 PM ET

Washington Wizards Boston Celtics
washingtonnba Vegas Total 218.0 bostonnba Vegas Total 218.0
Vegas Spread 5.5 Vegas Spread -5.5
Team Total 106.3 Team Total 111.8
Pace +/- 0.6 Pace +/- 1.0
Proj. Starter John Wall Bradley Beal Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Gerald Green Jae Crowder Al Horford
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 18 11 13 24 21 Adj. DvP 9 16 17 22 20
DRPM -4.21 -1.13 -1.56 1.37 1.59 DRPM -0.83 -0.94 0.03 1.54 1.33

Washington Wizards

It’s a good thing this game is first tonight. Markieff Morris is a game-time decision after exiting Game 1 in the second quarter due to an ankle injury. He’s claimed he’s “definitely playing” but coach Scott Brooks doesn’t seem so sure. His playing status will have a major impact on the slate. If he’s ruled out, Kelly Oubre will join the starting five and several players would receive additional minutes, including Otto Porter, Marcin Gortat, and Bojan Bogdanovic.

Oubre would become a solid value play if he starts. He ended up playing 26 minutes on Sunday – although he would have played a little less had Bojan not picked up three fouls in the second quarter. Morris played 11 prior to his injury, so in a scenario where Morris is out entirely, Oubre could be expected to play 25-32 even with Bojan rotating in. He’s done well this postseason; he’s maintained a 16.2% usage rate and turned in 0.75 FD ppm, an increase of 0.13 above his normal production. He’s a little scoring dependent, but he scored nine or more points in four of the five games and he’s earned at least 19 minutes in the playoffs. Given the dearth of options at his position, particularly on FanDuel, he will undoubtedly come with high ownership if he gets the nod tonight.

During their first-round series with Atlanta, Bogdanovic had seemingly jumped Oubre in the rotation. He was the third guy off the bench on Sunday though and ended up playing just 19 minutes. As mentioned, he got in some foul trouble in the first half and he could push towards 25 minutes in the event Morris is sidelined. He would make for an interesting tournament pivot off Oubre that would likely come with lower ownership (assuming Oubre starts). Bojan has a higher usage rate – 19.5% vs. 16.2% – and he’s returned 0.79 FD ppm in the postseason. Unlike Oubre, he can add peripherals through rebounding, plus, he’s a more consistent scorer; he’s dropped at least ten points in five consecutive games despite playing as little as 18 minutes.

Both Oubre and Bogdanovic would remain tournament options in the event Morris suits up. They could still earn more time on the floor if Morris is limited in some fashion and they’ve been effective with their time over the seven playoff games. Morris himself would be a risky target as he may not receive his normal complement of minutes. He has a big upside relative to his price though as they want to push him towards 40 minutes if he’s able and he’s averaged 0.83 FD ppm in the playoffs on a 23.0% usage rate. Apparently, the sprain is pretty severe, so it seems unlikely he can get on the court for that long though.

Otto Porter led the team with 41 minutes and he turned them into a double-double with 16 points and 11 rebounds. At $4,900, he seems underpriced on FanDuel whether Morris goes or not. He should have a secure workload of 30-32 minutes in every game, and he could push it further if Morris is limited. After a slow start, Porter has produced 0.82 FD ppm over the past four games, which is right in line with his normal return. He’s in a great spot for rebounding as Boston continues to struggle on the glass – Morris’ absence would help in this area – and he was aggressive as a scorer, going 4-for-4 within five feet of the basket. His volume isn’t great, as he hasn’t take more than ten shots this postseason, but he’s now shot 50.0% or better from the field in four consecutive games. Hopefully, he’ll carry some momentum and confidence into Game 2 and become more involved in the offense. One of the factors that prevented him from taking more attempts on Sunday was Marcin Gortat’s reemergence on offense. Following four consecutive games with exactly one field goal, Gortat made seven on his way to 16 points. Of course, he also benefits from Boston’s poor rebounding and he should continue to collect boards whether Morris is in or not. Although we can’t expect him to take 13 shots every game, he will continue to get looks and should do better than he did in the final games of their opening series. He’s a solid target whether Morris plays or not, but he’ll get an extra 6-10 minutes if Morris doesn’t go. He earned 39 in Game 1 and Brooks only played backup Jason Smith for ten. Clearly, the strategy is to go small at the power forward position and run Gortat as long as he can.

There are a few guys that will remain relatively unaffected by Morris’ absence in terms of time on the court: John Wall, Bradley Beal, and Brandon Jennings. Wall and Beal saw increases of 5.1% and 3.2% on their usage rates when Morris was off the floor this season. The former posted another double-double in Game 1, this time with 16 assists and 20 points. While he shouldn’t have an issue racking up assists, he may have trouble scoring. Coach Brad Stevens isn’t letting Isaiah Thomas guard Wall for the most part, instead giving that responsibility to Marcus Smart, who is a much better defender. Smart could even start ahead of Gerald Green tonight, but even if he doesn’t, he’ll get 30-34 minutes. Although his points were down, he still led the team with 20 shots – he’s now taken at least 19 in all but one game in the playoffs – and he was first in usage on Sunday at 35.4%. There’s some added risk with the matchup, which makes Isaiah Thomas and Stephen Curry interesting pivots, especially on DraftKings where they’re much cheaper. Naturally, Beal was second in usage at 30.8%. He scored 27 points, a number he’s hit in four straight contests, but he added just on rebound and one steal. In the first round, he contributed at least two steals in five games and hauled in at least three rebounds in five as well. He’s getting plenty of volume as a scorer and remains the top option at his position on tonight’s slate. Backup guard Brandon Jennings blanked in the scoring department and only contributed one rebound and one assist in 13 minutes. He doesn’t have a secure workload or floor and has a limited upside as he hasn’t exceeded 17 minutes this postseason.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
John Wall $10,400 $10,300 1.24 36.4 1.2 45.3 2.6 34.8% 0.0% 18 -4.21
Bradley Beal $7,900 $7,700 0.94 34.9 4.4 32.9 3.7 26.4% 2.1% 11 -1.13
Otto Porter $4,900 $5,800 0.82 32.6 -2.8 26.7 -5.8 14.8% -2.1% 13 -1.56
Markieff Morris $5,900 $5,400 0.83 31.2 -4.9 26.1 -4.9 19.8% 0.9% 24 1.37
Marcin Gortat $6,000 $5,900 0.85 31.2 2.7 26.4 2.0 14.7% -4.0% 21 1.59
Bojan Bogdanovic $4,000 $3,900 0.75 25.7 -4.8 19.3 -2.1 22.0% -2.2% 13 N/A
Kelly Oubre $3,500 $3,300 0.61 20.3 -4.8 12.4 -0.5 13.9% 3.2% 24 N/A

Elite Plays – John Wall, Bradley Beal, Otto Porter, Kelly Oubre (if Morris out), Marcin Gortat (if Morris Out)

Secondary Plays – Marcin Gortat (Morris in), Markieff Morris, Bojan Bogdanovic

Boston Celtics

Game 1 was big for Boston. Isaiah Thomas lost a tooth, Al Horford was one rebound shy of a triple-double, and Marcus Smart promoted himself to coach again and checked himself out of the game with seven minutes to go.

Thomas found his stroke against a soft Wizards’ defense, going 5-of-11 from deep and shooting 47.8% overall on his way to 33 points and he also contributed nine assists. Washington allows high field goal percentages from all over the floor, most notably, they ranked 21st from within eight feet of the basket (59.1%) and 29th from 24+ feet away (39.0%) after the break. That suits Thomas well as 84.2% of his baskets were from those zones this season. He should continue to score and pick up assists as his teammates should find success as well. Same goes for Al Horford, who led the team with ten on a 42.0% assist rate. He may be the most improved player from the regular season. He’s been integral to Boston’s success as he’s contributed a bunch of boards, points, and assists in every game so far. He’s been shooting above his head at 62.7%, but his peripherals provide him a nice floor. Coach Smart has a similar thing going with a nice floor from peripherals, but he hasn’t been scoring much. He contributed six points in Game 1 and he has scored more than eight since Game 2 of the first round. If he manages to put together a complete game, he would be a huge fantasy asset, but he’ll have to cut into Avery Bradley’s and/or Jae Crowder’s volume to do so. With Bradley and Crowder coming off big games, Smart should come with lower ownership tonight, which makes him an interesting GPP target. Bradley is the safest of the three as he continues to lead the team in minutes and he’s now scored 18+ and grabbed 5+ rebounds in three consecutive games. Crowder has been a little up and down as a scorer, but he’s taken at least 11 shots in five games this postseason. He was ridiculously hot from three in Game 1, converting 6-of-8. He’ll have to keep scoring in bunches to pay off his salary and he doesn’t offer much more the Otto Porter can, especially if Morris is out tonight.

There are a few options outside of Boston’s primary targets. Kelly Olynyk came in early in Game 1 when Boston got behind and he scored 10 points in the first quarter. He didn’t play much in the second half though as Horford was doing well and Boston was committed to staying small. Olynyk has produced 1.01 FD ppm this postseason, but he may not earn enough time to be useful. However, he remains cheap enough on DraftKings to be in play. Before Olynyk checked in, Stevens sent Amir Johnson on the court. He didn’t end up getting back out there after the first quarter outside of 52 seconds of garbage time, but he’s someone to keep an eye on as he may see an increased workload in this series. Johnson came in for Gerald Green, who started, struggled to make an impact, and finished with zero points and a turnover in 7.4 minutes of action. He may lose his starting job to Smart tonight. If he doesn’t, he’ll remain a super risky option that has a very insecure workload. He was outplayed by Terry Rozier, who collected eight rebounds and scored four points. Rozier has now played 15+ minutes in three straight games and he seems to be on Stevens’ good side. He hasn’t flashed too much upside this postseason as he’s only averaged 4.5 FGAs per game, but his per-minute production has stayed in line with the regular season. In fact, it’s up 0.02 to 0.76 FD ppm. He’s a potential value play tonight on FanDuel at $2,300, but his $2,800 salary on DraftKings may be pushing it a bit too far. Rozier has posted 13.6 or more FanDuel points in four of the past five games.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Isaiah Thomas $9,300 $8,900 1.19 33.8 2.8 40.4 -4.0 34.9% -2.3% 9 -0.83
Avery Bradley $6,400 $6,400 0.84 33.4 3.7 28.1 -2.9 21.5% -3.1% 16 -0.94
Gerald Green $2,100 $3,500 0.78 11.4 3.9 8.9 1.3 21.6% -2.3% 17 0.03
Jae Crowder $6,200 $6,000 0.79 32.4 2.5 25.7 -2.2 16.9% -0.4% 22 1.54
Al Horford $8,300 $7,800 1.00 32.3 2.8 32.2 6.8 21.6% -2.4% 20 1.33
Marcus Smart $6,000 $5,500 0.80 30.4 0.5 24.2 1.6 20.7% -4.0% 16 N/A
Kelly Olynyk $5,000 $4,200 0.90 20.5 -1.2 18.5 1.6 19.5% 0.6% 20 N/A

Elite Plays – Isaiah Thomas, Al Horford, Avery Bradley

Secondary Plays – Marcus Smart, Jae Crowder, Kelly Olynyk, Terry Rozier

Utah Jazz at Golden State Warriors – 10:30 PM ET

Utah Jazz Golden State Warriors
utahnba Vegas Total 206.5 goldenstatenba Vegas Total 206.5
Vegas Spread 13.5 Vegas Spread -13.5
Team Total 96.5 Team Total 110.0
Pace +/- 3.5 Pace +/- -5.1
Proj. Starter George Hill Joe Ingles Gordon Hayward Boris Diaw Rudy Gobert Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Kevin Durant Draymond Green Zaza Pachulia
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 3 14 5 21 12 Adj. DvP 1 2 1 1 3
DRPM 0.24 -0.91 1.35 5.08 3.61 DRPM 0.60 0.04 0.13 -1.03 6.03

Utah Jazz

The Jazz are in for a tough series. Golden State destroyed Portland even though Kevin Durant played 20 minutes total over the final three games. The Warriors posted a defensive rating of 96.3 against a team that had the fifth-highest offensive rating (110.7) in the second half of the season. Jusuf Nurkic’s absence definitely helped in that regard, but it wasn’t flukey – Golden State had the best defensive rating after the break (100.0). They also held opponents to the lowest field goal percentage overall (43.2%) and third-lowest from three (32.0%). In terms of peripherals they were mediocre: 13th in rebounding rate (50.2%), 15th in opponent assists (23.0), and seventh in opponent blocks (3.7), but they did give up the fifth-most steals per game (8.7). Fortunately, the Warriors ran at the fourth-fastest pace this season (102.24), so Utah should get more possessions than normal.

Gordon Hayward has stepped up over his last four full games. He’s averaging 31.0 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 3.8 assists. As their primary scorer, he’s launch 20+ times in three of those four and he should continue to fulfill that role. He only faced Golden State one time this year and it was a disaster, he scored just six points on ten shots. We can expect him to have more scoring opportunities tonight and we can take comfort in the fact that he’ll push for 40 minutes of playing time.

Following Hayward, the Jazz will likely push George Hill towards the 36-minute mark while Joe Ingles and Joe Johnson will likely be in the low 30s. Hill has been a little up and down this postseason, but he’s taken at least 11 shots in every game. Overall, his production is down 0.17 DK ppm to 0.79 and his usage has slipped 2.0% to 23.0%. That’s likely a result of Joe Johnson increasing his usage by 4.4% to 23.8% and his fantasy production by 0.12 DK ppm to 0.86. After averaging 13 shots per game during the regular season, he’s launched 13 or more attempts in all but one game in the playoffs. His peripherals are a little inconsistent, but he averaged 4.1 rebounds and 3.7 assists per game. Ingles’ usage is down 3.0% to 11.7% and he went scoreless in two games in the first round. He’s not going to offer a ton of upside in this matchup as he’ll be low on the scoring totem pole. He does offer more consistent peripheral stats than Johnson though.

Unlike Ingles, Rodney Hood is primarily a scorer. He also has the second-highest usage rate on the team this postseason at 24.1%. He only shot 37.3% from the field though, which was a big reason why his per-minute production decreased by 0.14 DK ppm to 0.66. His minutes also fluctuated quite a bit and it’s hard to say how many he’ll receive tonight. He’ll likely have a floor of 20 though. He could come with low ownership, which makes him an interesting high-risk/high-reward tournament option, but he could struggle in this matchup; he went 0-for-5 the only time he played the Warriors this season.

While his teammates struggle against the Warriors this year, Rudy Gobert did well. He posted a double-double in all three meetings and he hauled in 17+ rebounds in each. He fouled out in 13 minutes in Game 7, but on the bright side, his ankle appeared to be fine. Given his quiet postseason and salary, particularly on FanDuel where he’s $1,300 more than Horford, Gobert could be a relatively sneaky option on tonight’s slate. The Warriors may have some solid interior defense as they ranked second in opponent field goal percentage within eight feet after the break (54.3%), but that hasn’t bothered Gobert; the center made 76.9% of his attempts from the area in their three matchups and it’s where he did all his scoring.

Assuming Gobert stays out of foul trouble, Derrick Favors would see his minutes go back down. They haven’t played a single second together in the playoffs as Favors is simply serving as his backup, while Joe Johnson takes most of the power forward minutes. Although Favors had a really nice Game 7, he doesn’t appear to be a strong target tonight.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
George Hill $6,000 $5,600 0.89 31.5 5.9 28.0 -3.2 24.7% -3.5% 3 0.24
Joe Ingles $4,900 $4,500 0.68 24.1 9.3 16.3 5.6 15.4% -3.0% 14 -0.91
Gordon Hayward $8,500 $8,200 1.00 34.5 -0.3 34.3 -0.8 27.6% -0.5% 5 1.35
Boris Diaw $3,000 $2,900 0.57 17.6 1.8 10.1 1.4 17.6% -0.7% 21 5.08
Rudy Gobert $9,600 $7,300 1.05 33.9 -13.9 35.8 -12.3 16.2% 1.5% 12 3.61
Joe Johnson $5,700 $5,100 0.68 23.6 8.3 16.1 12.1 18.7% 4.4% 21 N/A
Derrick Favors $5,800 $4,700 0.87 23.7 4.3 20.7 -0.5 19.8% -5.4% 21 N/A

Elite Plays – Gordon Hayward, Rudy Gobert, Joe Johnson (FD)

Secondary Plays – Joe Johnson (DK), George Hill, Joe Ingles, Rodney Hood, Derrick Favors (FD)

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors rolled the Trail Blazers without Durant. They ended with an offensive rating of 114.6 as they made a playoff-high 48.4% of their shots and converted 40.3% of their attempts from deep. Utah and Portland were ninth and tenth in defensive rating in the second half of the year, but they Jazz play at a much slower pace. As a result, the Warriors have an implied total 5.9 points below their average (110.0) and it’s second on the slate behind Boston (111.8).

Durant’s return is a big deal for fantasy as he not only becomes one of the top targets himself, but he damages the value of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. It’s been discussed plenty, Curry’s usage drops 3.2% when he shares the court with Durant and his per-36 fantasy pace falls 3.81 DK points to 45.76. He’s still a nice option on DK as he offers a savings of $1,100 from John Wall, but on FanDuel he’s priced at $9,900, $500 cheaper than Wall and $600 more than Thomas. It may make sense to go to one of the other two elite options on FD, but Curry could come with lower ownership than both guys because of that. Similarly, Thompson is a better deal on DK where he’s $6,200. When Durant is on the floor he averages 32.25 DK points per 36 minutes. His ceiling will be capped with Curry and Durant both hogging up shots though. We all know how much all three of these guys love shooting treys. Fortunately, Utah ranked 18th after the break in opponent three-point percentage (36.1%) whereas Portland was 10th (34.4%). Perhaps their weakest area is the mid-range zone as they ranked 20th in opponent field goal percentage there (40.7%). This helps Durant and Thompson more than Curry. Both guys shot 44.8% or better from mid-range and 22.3% of Durant’s and 25.9% of Thompson’s field goals came from there.

Since Draymond Green doesn’t rely on scoring as much, his output doesn’t really change. He was a defensive monster in the first round, piling up 17 blocks over four games to go along with his 9.5 rebounds and 7.5 points. He did increase his scoring as well, averaging 13.8 points a game; that could return towards his normal rate with Durant in the lineup. It’ll be interesting to see if he can keep up in the other areas, Utah allowed the third-fewest blocks this season (3.8 per game), eighth-fewest steals (7.3), the least assists (17.8), and they were the third-best rebounding team (51.8%). Of course, that spells trouble for Curry’s and Durant’s peripheral stats too. Durant led the team in rebounds (8.6) and Curry in assists (6.6).

There aren’t many players of interest outside of those four. Andre Iguodala has had a couple decent performances, but his per-minute production has dropped 0.04 DK ppm to 0.78 this postseason while his usage rate has remained low (12.1%). He averaged 30.0 minutes per game in the opening series, but he’ll likely lose a few minutes with Durant back in the lineup. Matt Barnes is also expected to play. Although he won’t be a big factor, he could potentially steal a few minutes from Iguodala as well. JaVale McGee has been a per-minute beast, producing 1.70 DK ppm over his 48.6 minutes, but he’ll likely play between 10-15 minutes at best. David West averaged 14.5 minutes per game and he had a solid output on par with the regular season – 19.3% usage rate and 1.09 DK ppm. He may not get enough time to be a strong target, but he could be worth a look as a tournament option on FanDuel with the weak selection available.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Stephen Curry $9,900 $9,200 1.25 33.4 0.3 41.6 6.4 31.3% 4.3% 1 0.60
Klay Thompson $7,300 $6,200 0.91 34.0 0.3 30.9 -7.2 24.6% -0.1% 2 0.04
Kevin Durant $9,900 $9,000 1.36 33.4 -5.3 45.5 -12.1 28.0% 0.6% 1 0.13
Draymond Green $8,800 $7,900 1.06 32.5 2.7 34.6 11.8 19.3% -1.3% 1 -1.03
Zaza Pachulia $4,000 $2,600 0.96 18.1 -3.5 17.4 -3.1 15.7% 4.5% 3 6.03
Andre Iguodala $5,200 $4,800 0.75 26.3 3.7 19.7 2.1 13.2% -0.1% 1 N/A
Javale McGee $4,000 $3,400 1.24 9.6 2.5 11.9 8.6 21.7% 0.4% 3 N/A

Elite Plays – Kevin Durant, Draymond Green, Stephen Curry

Secondary Plays – Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala

About the Author

bryanpauquette
Bryan Pauquette (bryanpauquette)

Bryan Pauquette’s peak in life came in 2002 when he struck out live on the YES network in the New York State Little League championship. Unfortunately, his team lost to a squad that cheated their way to the U.S. Semi-Finals, so he feels forever robbed of a chance to go down swinging on ESPN. As it turns out, he’s much better at fantasy sports than actual ones and he’s been an avid cash game and small-field tournament player since 2015. He joined RotoGrinders in Summer Sixteen as part of their alerts and projections team. Outside of RG, Bryan is a television writer and producer based in the City of Angels (he does not root for any of their teams, but he’s thinking about the Chargers because he’s giving up on the Jets).