NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, May 9th

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ


Houston Rockets at San Antonio Spurs – Tuesday, 8:00 PM ET

Houston Rockets San Antonio Spurs
houstonnba Vegas Total 215.0 sanantonionba Vegas Total 215.0
Vegas Spread 6.0 Vegas Spread -6.0
Team Total 104.5 Team Total 110.5
Pace +/- -2.3 Pace +/- 3.8
Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Ryan Anderson Clint Capela Proj. Starter Dejounte Murray Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Pau Gasol
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 8 12 2 2 2 Adj. DvP 25 26 23 27 26
DRPM -0.74 2.10 0.85 1.25 1.43 DRPM 1.89 -1.81 1.54 -0.16 1.25

Houston Rockets

Since this game is in San Antonio, the Rockets have an implied total of 104.5, which is 10.8 points below their average. However, Houston is a high-variance team that has a wide range of outcomes, so that number doesn’t necessarily carry too much weight. For example, in this series with similar implied totals, they’ve either scored 125 or more or 96 or less – there hasn’t been a middle ground.

The big news out of Houston is Nene’s groin injury is going to keep him sidelined for the remainder of the playoffs. This should provide extra minutes for Clint Capela, who was in a timeshare with Nene. Capela only earned 25 minutes in Game 4, but 16 of those came in the second half and he was pulled with 2.5 minutes remaining in the game. Capela was limited in the first half after picking up his third foul early in the second quarter. Eric Gordon started the second half ahead of Ryan Anderson and Anderson is going to come off the bench from the beginning tonight. That’s because he’ll serve as Capela’s backup as a stretch five. Based on Capela’s run in the second half in the last game and how they used Anderson, we could see Capela earn 30+ minutes. Considering the guy is averaging 1.32 DK ppm in this series, he’s going to be a great option at his salary. Anderson ended up with 32 minutes in Game 4, but he could play less than that off the bench. Even with his improved shooting in this series, he’s turning in 0.68 DK ppm; he’s a streaky shooter and an inconsistent, often disappointing fantasy option.

Of course, the move should provide a bigger workload for Eric Gordon, who scored 22 points on Sunday. He should continue playing more than 30 minutes a game and he’s producing 0.87 DK ppm in this series with a 19.4% usage rate. The downside is he may see a reduced role when playing with the first unit. He’s been very poor with their lineup of Beverley, Harden, Ariza, and Capela this season; his usage dipped 7.2% to 15.8% and his per-minute pace tumbled to 0.52 from 0.78. It’s a not a huge sample size (124.1 minutes), but it seems to reflect how he fits in with this group. Lou Williams will still come off the bench, but he finally got back up to 32 minutes last time out. He ended up taking 15 shots but only scored 13 points. Like several others on this team, his fantasy value largely depends on his scoring, but he’s more reliable than others if he gets the time on the court. He’ll continue to have suppressed ownership, especially with Gordon starting, which makes him an interesting tournament pivot. With Nene out, the Rockets will be running smaller lineups, bolstering his workload.

Speaking of guys who can be unreliable, Trevor Ariza is having himself a nice series. He was lit from the field last time out, going 7-for-9 on his way to 16 points. It was the second game in a row he turned in 16+ points, 5+ rebounds, and five assists. Although it doesn’t feel totally comfortable, he right in the conversation with Jae Crowder and Otto Porter, but those two have been much more consistent. It helps that he’s responded well when playing with this starting five. Including the playoffs, he’s played 124.1 minutes alongside Beverley/Harden/Gordon/Capela and he experienced a usage bump of 2.7% and an increase of 0.05 DK ppm, bringing his numbers to 17.4% and 0.76, respectively.

James Harden couldn’t get to the foul line very much in Game 4 as he only took six free throw attempts. Outside of one game, the Spurs have been very disciplined when it comes to defending him, which has taken away a major part of his offensive game. Harden continued to be quiet on the glass and he’s now averaging 3.8 rebounds per game. The dip in production there is expected in this spot. He was able to post 12 assists, which is the third time he’s hit double-digits in the stat in this series. It seems like he can continue to be efficient in the area, but it will naturally vary with the Rockets’ shooting efficiency. His overall ceiling is reduced in this matchup due to points and rebounds. Similarly, Patrick Beverley’s rebounds are down to 5.0 from 6.2 against the Thunder. He is capable of providing assists and steals as well, so he generally has a decent floor, but he needs to score points to provide a big return. He’s currently making 33.3% of his shots in this series as he struggles against San Antonio’s interior defense – he’s 5-of-15 from within eight feet of the hoop. It’ll be tough for him to do much more on the offensive end, especially if Ariza continues to score as he has been.

Lastly, Sam Dekker entered the rotation after Nene went down, picking up ten minutes, five of which came after it turned into a blowout. He turned in 8.0 FD points in that time, with 6.8 of those produced at the end of the game.He’s now averaging 0.85 FD ppm across the 21.4 minutes he’s played this postseason – on the season as a whole, he’s averaged 0.73 FD ppm. Although he may not receive enough time on the floor to be useful, his low salary of $1,600 makes him a potential (very) high-risk GPP play on FD. It’s possible he doesn’t do much of anything unless he gets some garbage time though.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Patrick Beverley $5,400 $5,100 0.82 30.7 -2.5 25.2 -1.7 16.3% 5.3% 8 -0.74
James Harden $12,000 $11,000 1.48 36.4 0.0 53.9 -9.2 38.6% -0.8% 12 2.10
Trevor Ariza $5,700 $5,200 0.72 34.7 2.9 25.1 -2.4 14.4% -1.5% 2 0.85
Ryan Anderson $4,200 $5,000 0.71 29.4 -0.8 20.9 -4.8 17.2% -4.5% 2 1.25
Clint Capela $6,400 $5,500 1.08 23.9 0.4 25.9 3.8 19.1% -3.6% 2 1.43
Eric Gordon $5,000 $4,800 0.77 31.0 0.3 23.8 -0.6 22.0% -4.5% 12 N/A
Lou Williams $4,600 $4,900 1.03 24.6 -1.3 25.4 -8.7 28.9% -5.6% 12 N/A

Elite Plays – James Harden, Clint Capela

Secondary Plays – Patrick Beverley, Trevor Ariza, Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson, Louis Williams


San Antonio Spurs

Due to another blowout, no one played more than 30 minutes on San Antonio. Kawhi Leonard still managed to contribute across the board while he was out there. Naturally, he’s led the team in usage when he’s on the floor in this series (26.9%) and he’s producing a team-high 1.37 DK ppm, an increase of 0.09 over his regular season average. His usage is down overall from 33.3% during the season though and in the two full games without Parker, his rate hasn’t increased. In fact, he’s conceded the team lead to LaMarcus Aldridge (28.0%). Although he was limited to 25 minutes in Game 4, Aldridge scored 16 points in that time. Overall, he’s turning in 1.07 DK ppm over the last two outings, 0.07 above his average. His price has come back up, but he’s still a fine target as he’ll receive a ton of minutes in a close game. Same with Leonard. Even though his numbers were down in Games 3 and 4 (1.10 DK ppm), they aren’t terrible and he should bounce back at home.

Pau Gasol is perhaps the most improved player from the last series; his usage is up 2.0% and his fantasy production has spiked by 0.45 DK ppm to 1.16. He returned 29.25 DK points in just 19 minutes in Game 4. While he could potentially benefit from Anderson playing a stretch five if he’s on the floor, he might not get the opportunity to exploit the mismatch as coach Gregg Popovich may counter with a small lineup of his own. Gasol’s minutes may reflect Capela’s as they did following Nene’s injury (outside of the fourth quarter). That approach could help David Lee, who picked up 17 minutes last game, the most he’s received since Game 1. He’s been very poor so far in this series, turning in 0.55 DK ppm, but he’s capable of turning that around in this favorable matchup, especially against smaller lineups. Even when playing alongside Aldridge and Leonard this season, he produced 0.82 DK ppm on average. He could be a sneaky GPP option on this slate, although he’s very risky and may lack the desirable ceiling.

Patty Mills was second on the team with 28 minutes. Despite coming off the bench, he’ll continue to play more the Dejounte Murray. His price has increased across the industry – he’s $5,300 on DraftKings – and that makes him a tough choice. However, he’s averaging 0.79 DK ppm with a 20.5% usage rate and he should push for 30+ minutes in a close game, so he should have a nice floor. It was also promising to see him take 14 field goals in Game 3, even though that volume was cut in half in the follow-up. It’s hard to imagine him having more opportunities than he did in the third meeting now that he’s receiving so many minutes with first-unit players. All in all, he might not be a great target on DK based on his salary and similarly priced options at other positions. On FanDuel, it may make sense to go up to the big guys, Isaiah Thomas and John Wall and save elsewhere.

San Antonio has been using Jonathon Simmons regularly off the bench, he earned 14 minutes in the first half on Sunday. The rest came after the starters were pulled and he scored 11 of his 17 points in that stretch. In a competitive game, he could still potentially play 18+ minutes, so he’s a potential GPP dart throw on FanDuel at $2,800. However, there are three solid mid-range options and Kawhi Leonard available, so he may not be worth the risk. Ginobili continues to receive around 16 minutes per game and he probably doesn’t offer enough upside to return a great value in that window, he’s averaging 0.72 DK ppm since Parker’s injury and he’s been held scoreless on five occasions this postseason.

Danny Green had shown a bit of life in Games 2 and 3 but disappeared again on Sunday, taking just four shots in 26 minutes. He’s not a great target as he has a limited role with not much upside. Even so, he’s in play for tournaments since there are only two games on the slate.

Dejounte Murray only returned 12.0 DK points despite playing 20 minutes. Eight of those came in garbage time, so it appears safe to assume his workload will be too small in a close game to be worth a roster spot. Likewise, Kyle Anderson played the entire fourth quarter and piled up all of his fantasy points during that stretch. He’s a GPP option for those willing to gamble on another blowout, but he doesn’t appear to be anything more than that.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Dejounte Murray $2,200 $3,100 0.76 8.5 -1.0 6.5 -2.4 24.9% 0.6% 25 1.89
Danny Green $3,800 $4,300 0.62 26.6 0.8 16.5 -1.5 13.8% 0.4% 26 -1.81
Kawhi Leonard $11,000 $10,700 1.22 33.4 4.6 40.6 7.6 30.9% -4.3% 23 1.54
LaMarcus Aldridge $7,000 $6,900 0.96 32.4 2.3 31.1 -2.3 24.0% -2.6% 27 -0.16
Pau Gasol $6,000 $5,900 1.06 25.4 -1.7 26.9 -6.7 21.5% -4.0% 26 1.25
Patty Mills $4,800 $5,300 0.79 21.9 0.2 17.2 -1.1 21.8% 1.1% 25 N/A
Manu Ginobili $3,000 $3,800 0.84 18.7 -2.6 15.7 -2.4 22.0% -1.2% 26 N/A
David Lee $3,100 $3,300 0.92 18.7 2.9 17.2 -3.5 17.3% -6.3% 27 N/A

Elite Plays – Kawhi Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge, Pau Gasol

Secondary Plays – Patty Mills, David Lee, Jonathon Simmons, Danny Green


Washington Wizards at Boston Celtics – Wednesday, 8:00 PM ET

Washington Wizards Boston Celtics
washingtonnba Vegas Total 215.0 bostonnba Vegas Total 215.0
Vegas Spread 4.5 Vegas Spread -4.5
Team Total 105.3 Team Total 109.8
Pace +/- 0.6 Pace +/- 1.0
Proj. Starter John Wall Bradley Beal Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Al Horford
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 18 11 13 24 21 Adj. DvP 9 16 17 22 20
DRPM -4.21 -1.13 1.37 3.79 1.59 DRPM -0.83 -0.94 0.03 1.54 1.33

Washington Wizards

The Wizards will get Kelly Oubre back tomorrow from a one-game suspension; assuming he plays nice with Kelly Olynyk, Washington’s rotations may be a bit tricky. Oubre played 26+ minutes in the first two games of the series – he was aided by Markieff Morris’ injury in the first one and overtime in the second – while Bojan Bogdanovic earned 19 and eight. Coach Scott Brooks made a point to get Bogdanovic more time following the second meeting and he followed through providing him 29 and 22 minutes in Games 3 and 4. Of course, Oubre was unavailable for nearly seven quarters in that stretch. At the same time, Otto Porter, who’s been excellent in this series, has seen his workload decline a little bit each game from 41 in the first to 34 in the fourth. Now we have a situation where Porter has been an essential part of the Wizards’ success, Oubre appears to be ahead of Bogdanovic in the rotation, but Brooks wants to keep getting Bojan on the court. All three guys will essentially form four-man rotation with Morris as Oubre and Bogdanovic can replace either starter. It appears that Bogdanovic will likely be the fourth option among this group unless he comes in hot. He wasn’t all that active in Game 4 until the game was out of hand, even though he was supposed to be a major piece. Game flow could potentially help him; given his ability to score, he could come in if the Wizards get down and need to generate some offense quickly. If Porter and Morris play like they did last game, it could limit Oubre to the 18-22 minute range while allowing Porter to receive 30-34 and Morris to push towards 36.

Oubre has shown an ability to score as he dropped 12 in the first two second-round games, however, he’s very dependent on his teammate’s getting him the ball; 90.1% of his field goals this postseason have been assisted. In other words, he’s not handling the ball a whole lot, which means he’s not helping create opportunities for teammates – he has four total assists through nine playoff games – and he hasn’t been able to make his own opportunities. Porter is a little similar, 71.7% of his shots have been assisted in the playoffs, but he’s averaging 2.3 assists per game (8.3% assist rate), and he’s been excellent on the glass. Porter, taking full advantage of Boston’s poor rebounding, has grabbed at least eight boards in each of the four games. Overall, he’s producing 0.95 FD ppm with a 17.2% usage rate. He’s made 61.4% of his attempts from the field, mainly due to his habit of getting inside for high percentage shots – he’s now 15-of-17 from within eight feet of the hoop.

Due to foul trouble and an injury, Markieff Morris has had a wildly inconsistent postseason. Despite Brooks’ desire to get Morris heavy minutes, Game 4 marked the third outing the power forward crossed the 30-minute mark. He ended up double-doubling with 16 points and ten rebounds. As with Porter, his rebounding rate has increased in the series – it’s up 4.2% to 15.9%. He has a favorable matchup and even with Oubre and Bojan getting time, he should receive a solid workload. He’s clearly the second-best power forward on FanDuel with Ryan Anderson a distant third option. On DK he has more competition, but it’s worth keeping in mind he has the second-highest usage rate on this team in the second round (24.6%) and he’s turning in 1.14 DK ppm.

One other rotational change to note is at the center position. With Ian Mahinmi returning, Gortat’s minutes have dropped, as expected. The backup center has been limited in each game, but he picked up 13 last game and he may push towards 15+ tomorrow. When Mahinmi was earning his normal 18 minutes a night during the regular season, Gortat’s workload dropped into the mid-20s. Gortat doesn’t make much sense on DK where Pau Gasol and Clint Capela are cheaper while LaMarcus Aldridge and Al Horford are just a bit more. The savings he provides from those guys on FanDuel may not be worth it, but it’s potentially low enough to keep him in tournament consideration as he’s averaging 0.94 FD ppm in this seriesAt the same time, Mahinmi is $2,300 on FD, which makes him a potential GPP play. He may not get enough time to return a good value, but he averaged 14.96 FD points in 17.9 minutes per game this season.

Of course, the main guy to target on this team is John Wall. He’s pushed his usage up to 37.1% in this series, 4.4% above his average, and he’s producing an extra 0.12 FD ppm, bringing his pace to 1.38. He’s separated himself from Bradley Beal as the clear number one offensive option thus far as he’s averaging 24.0 FGAs and 27.8 points per game while Beal is taking 15.5 shots and averaging 20.3 points. Beal’s usage is down 4.0% to 24.3% and he’s turning in 0.75 FD ppm, a decrease of 0.19. While Beal is a guy who can catch fire at any point, if Wall keeps operating in takeover mode, he’s going to have a capped ceiling. If we look at last game, Beal was hot, going 11-for-16 (68.8%) while Wall was cold, making just 32.0% of his attempts. Still Beal finished with 29 and Wall was only two points behind with 27. Beal has to start taking more shots to have a major return on his salary, but he remains a step ahead of Avery Bradley and the other shooting guards. In addition to some major scoring, Wall has turned in 12 or more assists in three of the four games against Boston. He has an assist rater of 49.1% and he shows little signs of slowing down.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
John Wall $10,600 $10,800 1.24 36.4 4.2 45.3 8.0 34.8% 1.4% 18 -4.21
Bradley Beal $7,900 $7,200 0.94 34.9 2.8 32.9 0.7 26.4% -1.1% 11 -1.13
Otto Porter $5,400 $6,400 0.82 32.6 2.5 26.7 5.0 14.8% -1.1% 13 1.37
Markieff Morris $5,500 $5,800 0.83 31.2 -7.8 26.1 -3.7 19.8% 1.1% 24 3.79
Marcin Gortat $5,300 $6,300 0.85 31.2 2.7 26.4 2.9 14.7% -0.1% 21 1.59
Kelly Oubre $3,000 $3,900 0.61 20.3 -1.7 12.4 1.1 13.9% 0.4% 13 N/A
Bojan Bogdanovic $4,000 $4,200 0.75 25.7 -4.5 19.3 -0.6 22.0% -5.8% 13 N/A
Ian Mahinmi $2,300 $2,800 0.84 17.9 -8.3 15.0 -5.3 13.7% -3.7% 21 N/A

Elite Plays – John Wall, Bradley Beal, Markieff Morris, Otto Porter

Secondary Plays – Marcin Gortat, Kelly Oubre, Bojan Bogdanovic, Ian Mahinmi


Boston Celtics

That was an ugly road trip for Boston, they got blown out twice and lost the momentum they gained from the first two meetings. Isaiah Thomas was shooting well in Game 4, he was 5-for-6 from three, but it wasn’t enough to overcome a 26-0 run by the Wizards in the third. Overall, he’s shooting 50% from the field on Washington and 48.4% from three. He should continue to be efficient as Washington has allowed a high field goal percentages from all over the floor. Game 5 feels like a great bounce back opportunity in a must-win game at home. Thomas averaged 28.0 FGAs per game in the first two outings and we should expect him to get a high volume of shots once again. Game flow can become a concern as nearly every game has been a blowout so far, but the spread is just 4.5-points; hopefully, we’ll get another classic like Game 2.

Al Horford was quiet in D.C.; his peripherals dropped to 3.5 rebounds and 4.0 assists, and he only scored 11 points in 32 minutes on Sunday. However, his assist rate still remains high at 25.9% in this series and his rebounding rate is still on par with his average production (12.7%). Boston has been bullied on the glass, but he’s still the team leader (7.0 rpg). As with Thomas, this seems like a nice bounce back spot, and we have to appreciate a center who can contribute across the board as Horford has been doing for most of the postseason.

Unlike those two, Avery Bradley seems to have more risk involved. He got another hip pointer in Game 4 and he only scored five points after scoring seven in the third meeting. Although he claims he’s fine, it’s something to consider as it’s clearly inhibited his performance the past two games. Jae Crowder had trouble scoring as well, going 2-for-9 from the field, but remained consistent on the glass, hauling in seven boards for the third consecutive game. He also added four assists and four steals. He’s now exceed 26 FD points in four of the past five games and 30 in three of the past four. Porter has been better, but as mentioned, he could lose potentially lose a few minutes with Oubre back.

Marcus Smart scored nine for the third straight game. Although he hasn’t been very active on the offensive end this postseason, he’s turned it up a bit over the past three games. He’s taken at least seven field goal attempts overall, exactly four three points, and he’s gotten to the line five or more times in each one. Since he can contribute plenty of peripherals, he’s been able to scored 20+ FD points in all but one game this postseason and he’s topped 25 four times. With his price dropping to $5,300, he’s an interesting tournament option. If he puts together a complete game, he could provide a solid return. Bradley’s injury could work in his favor in that regard, and he seems to have a pretty secure workload in competitive games.

Amir Johnson started but only played 12.4 minutes, he’s not really a viable fantasy option. Gerald Green came off the bench, but didn’t get in until the Wizards went on the 26-0 tear in the third. He could simply be out of the rotation in a close game. The two bench guys to look at outside of Smart are Kelly Olynyk and Terry Rozier. Olynyk is very active for Boston, but he’s inconsistent. He scored 14 points on Sunday after averaging 4.5 in the two games prior. With the centers available on FD, there isn’t much of a reason to think about him. On DK, he makes a little more sense as he’s under $4k and roster construction is more flexible. Even so, he probably won’t receive enough time to be a huge fantasy asset at his price. Rozier has the trust of his coach and he’ll earn some minutes regardless of game flow. However, in Game 4, he picked up 12 of his 22.5 minutes in the fourth when the game was pretty much out of hand, and he scored 18.5 of his 23.9 FD points in the final frame. He’s capable of producing a nice stat line if given the time, so he’s in play as a high-risk GPP option, but he may need some garbage time.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Isaiah Thomas $9,000 $9,000 1.19 33.8 0.9 40.4 -0.6 34.9% -2.6% 9 -0.83
Avery Bradley $6,000 $5,600 0.84 33.4 1.1 28.1 1.0 21.5% -0.9% 16 -0.94
Jae Crowder $6,200 $6,000 0.79 32.4 0.5 25.7 2.7 16.9% 0.0% 17 0.03
Amir Johnson $2,500 $2,600 0.82 20.1 -12.4 16.5 -12.4 14.3% -1.4% 22 1.54
Al Horford $8,100 $7,100 1.00 32.3 1.0 32.2 4.1 21.6% -3.5% 20 1.33
Marcus Smart $5,300 $5,400 0.80 30.4 0.4 24.2 -2.0 20.7% -2.5% 16 N/A
Kelly Olynyk $4,700 $3,900 0.90 20.5 -2.5 18.5 -4.5 19.5% 1.2% 20 N/A
Terry Rozier $2,500 $3,600 0.74 17.1 0.9 12.7 3.6 18.2% -2.9% 9 N/A

Elite Plays – Isaiah Thomas, Al Horford

Secondary Plays – Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder, Marcus Smart, Kelly Olynyk, Terry Rozier

About the Author

bryanpauquette
Bryan Pauquette (bryanpauquette)

Bryan Pauquette’s peak in life came in 2002 when he struck out live on the YES network in the New York State Little League championship. Unfortunately, his team lost to a squad that cheated their way to the U.S. Semi-Finals, so he feels forever robbed of a chance to go down swinging on ESPN. As it turns out, he’s much better at fantasy sports than actual ones and he’s been an avid cash game and small-field tournament player since 2015. He joined RotoGrinders in Summer Sixteen as part of their alerts and projections team. Outside of RG, Bryan is a television writer and producer based in the City of Angels (he does not root for any of their teams, but he’s thinking about the Chargers because he’s giving up on the Jets).