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NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, April 27th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-04-28 02:49:58

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Charlotte Hornets at Miami Heat – 6:00 PM

Charlotte Hornets Miami Heat
charlottenba Vegas Total 193.5 miaminba Vegas Total 193.5
Vegas Sprd 6.0 Vegas Sprd -6.0
Team Proj. 93.8 Team Proj. 99.8
Team Pace 97.80 Team Pace 95.70
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Courtney Lee Marvin Williams Frank Kaminsky Al Jefferson Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Joe Johnson Luol Deng Hassan Whiteside
Opp. Season 1 4 12 3 8 Opp. Season 10 14 18 23 16
Last 3 Weeks 3 15 1 2 26 Last 3 Weeks 5 18 11 23 19

Charlotte Hornets

Record: 48-34 — Road: 18-23 — Last 10: 7-3

The Hornets won both of their home games to tie the series up at two games a piece. They now head back to Miami for an all important Game 5. The winner of this game will have a chance to win the series on the their home floor. The Hornets are listed as 6-point underdogs tonight with an implied team total of 93.8 points. Nicolas Batum is EXPECTED to play tonight, which means Frank Kaminsky will head back to the bench. Jeremy Lin will also return to more of a reserve role. As long as Batum is active, Kaminsky and Lin can be avoided.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Kemba Walker
kemba-walker-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,200 Salary:$8,300
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.01 FP/Min:1.08
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.6 33.0 -2.6 30.4 -5.2
FPPG (FD) 36.0 33.8 -2.1 33.0 -3.0
TO-Adj. Usage 23.1 23.1 0.0 22.7 -0.4

Walker was one of my favorite plays when the series was in Charlotte, but he has two things working against him tonight. His usage rate is going to go down with Nicolas Batum back in the lineup. And, he is playing on the road. The Heat are still one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. While I like the upside that Walker provides, I see him as more of a tournament play tonight.

Al Jefferson
al-jefferson-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,700 Salary:$4,900
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.04 FP/Min:1.08
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 23.3 22.5 -0.8 23.6 0.3
FPPG (FD) 24.1 28.2 4.0 30.8 6.6
TO-Adj. Usage 21.1 22.9 1.8 24.4 3.3

Jefferson had his best game of the series in Game 2. He has played pretty well in all four games and I would consider him a borderline elite play if it weren’t for the other options at his position. DeAndre Jordan should be a monster tonight with Blake Griffin out and Mason Plumlee has been producing at a much higher level than Jefferson in the last two games.

Miami Heat

Record: 48-34 — Home: 28-13 — Last 10: 6-4

The Heat failed to pick up a win in Charlotte and now head back home with the series tied. Even though each team has won two games, these have all been won by large margins of victory. Hopefully tonight’s game will stay close so that the starters can actually play the entire game. The Heat are listed as 6-point favorites tonight with a team projection of 99.8 points. They have the third highest team total and the highest projected point differential.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Hassan Whiteside
hassan-whiteside-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,300 Salary:$8,100
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.23 FP/Min:1.31
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 29.1 30.3 1.2 29.2 0.1
FPPG (FD) 35.8 38.7 3.0 37.0 1.3
TO-Adj. Usage 16.1 18.5 2.4 18.9 2.8

Whiteside averaged 40 fantasy points per game before struggling in Game 4. He looked out of sorts right from the start. Look for him to bounce back tonight in Game 5 at home. He has the same problem as Al Jefferson though, in that there are better plays at center tonight. His ownership should be down with DeAndre Jordan and Mason Plumlee in such great spots, making Whiteside a nice GPP target.

Dwyane Wade
dwyane-wade-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,700 Salary:$7,500
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:1.04 FP/Min:1.09
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.5 31.0 0.5 30.6 0.1
FPPG (FD) 31.6 31.5 -0.1 27.0 -4.6
TO-Adj. Usage 26.8 25.1 -1.7 24.6 -2.2

Wade has alternated good and bad games in this series. While Game 5 would technically be the turn for the bad Wade to show up, I expect a big game from him tonight. He knows the importance of keeping homecourt advantage and he is playing at home. His shot has been off all series, but he has made up for it with his peripheral statistics. He is a borderline elite play tonight.

Luol Deng
luol-deng-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,600 Salary:$6,500
Position:PF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.75 FP/Min:0.81
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.4 34.9 2.5 35.3 2.9
FPPG (FD) 24.2 28.0 3.8 24.4 0.2
TO-Adj. Usage 15.0 15.5 0.5 13.8 -1.2

Deng continues to play well in this series. Through the first four games, he is averaging over 30 fantasy points in 35 minutes of action. With the Hornets keying in on Dwyane Wade defensively, Deng is getting plenty of open looks on the perimeter. His price is a bit too high for my liking in cash games, but he is certainly worth a look in tournaments.

Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Clippers – 8:00 PM

Portland Trail Blazers Los Angeles Clippers
portlandnba Vegas Total 195.5 laclippersnba Vegas Total 195.5
Vegas Sprd -3.0 Vegas Sprd 3.0
Team Proj. 99.3 Team Proj. 96.3
Team Pace 98.30 Team Pace 98.00
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Al-Farouq Aminu Maurice Harkless Mason Plumlee Proj. Starter Austin Rivers J.J. Redick Jeff Green Luc Richard Mbah a Moute DeAndre Jordan
Opp. Season 5 3 8 13 12 Opp. Season 24 18 4 22 27
Last 3 Weeks 7 1 7 26 2 Last 3 Weeks 22 6 10 24 30

Portland Trail Blazers

Record: 44-38 — Road: 16-25 — Last 10: 7-3

The Blazers are right back in this series. Not only did they win both of the games in Portland, but Chris Paul and Blake Griffin were both injured in Game 4 and both are out for the remainder of the playoffs. The injuries are certainly reflected in this line, as the Blazers are actually 3-point favorites in Los Angeles. They are projected to score 99.3 points, which is the fourth highest team total on the board.

Elite Plays

Damian Lillard
damian-lillard-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,000 Salary:$8,200
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.10 FP/Min:1.19
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.7 33.5 -2.2 33.9 -1.8
FPPG (FD) 39.4 32.4 -7.0 37.9 -1.5
TO-Adj. Usage 27.6 26.3 -1.3 28.6 1.1

Lillard sees the biggest boost of any player on the Blazers. With Chris Paul out, he will now match up against the likes of Jamal Crawford, Austin Rivers, and Pablo Prigioni. Not only does he see a matchup boost, but a big mental boost as well. The Blazers have a great chance to take control of this series tonight and I’m hitching my wagon to Mr. Lillard in both cash games and GPPs.

Mason Plumlee
mason-plumlee-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,100 Salary:$6,200
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:0.96 FP/Min:1.04
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 25.4 25.1 -0.3 26.4 1.0
FPPG (FD) 24.3 27.4 3.1 30.6 6.2
TO-Adj. Usage 14.2 15.2 1.0 14.0 -0.2

Plumlee has seen a major minutes boost here in the postseason and he has really taken advantage of it. In his last three games, he has scored 45, 44, and 36 fantasy points. The hard decision that many of us will have to make tonight is whether to target Plumlee or whether to take the opposing center in DeAndre Jordan. Both are very strong plays.

Secondary Plays

Al-Farouq Aminu
al-farouq-aminu-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,000 Salary:$5,600
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.75 FP/Min:0.85
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.5 28.7 0.2 29.2 0.7
FPPG (FD) 21.5 26.6 5.1 23.9 2.4
TO-Adj. Usage 14.3 15.5 1.2 14.2 -0.1

Aminu is coming off of a career-high in points. He scored 30 actual points and finished Game 4 with 51.5 fantasy points. He has played well in this series, but he is still Aminu. I’m tempted to fade him tonight. Not only will his ownership be inflated, but his price has come up on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Los Angeles Clippers

Record: 53-29 — Home: 29-12 — Last 10: 8-2

The Clippers have to feel dejected heading into Game 5. Their championship hopes are all but dashed now that Chris Paul and Blake Griffin are out. The fate of their season now hangs in the hands of the coach’s son. The Clippers are now underdogs in this series. They absolutely need a win tonight at home if they are going to make it to the second round. The good news is that the injuries open up a ton of options on the Clippers.

Elite Plays

DeAndre Jordan
deandre-jordan-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,000 Salary:$8,000
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.06 FP/Min:1.13
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.7 29.9 -3.8 29.0 -4.7
FPPG (FD) 35.7 31.5 -4.2 29.7 -6.0
TO-Adj. Usage 12.5 13.6 1.1 13.9 1.4

With Chris Paul and Blake Griffin out, it is now the Austin Rivers and DeAndre Jordan show. Jordan does get a lot of his buckets on lobs from Paul, but I expect his increased role to more than make up for that. He should see a boost in usage, minutes, and rebounding rate with Griffin off the floor.

Jamal Crawford
jamal-crawford-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,800 Salary:$5,100
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.75 FP/Min:0.80
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 26.9 29.3 2.4 37.6 10.7
FPPG (FD) 20.2 27.1 6.9 35.6 15.4
TO-Adj. Usage 21.1 21.5 0.4 22.6 1.5

In the seven games that Chris Paul has missed this season, Crawford has averaged 34.4 fantasy points per game. He should see a major boost in both minutes and usage and he may be my favorite play dollar for dollar tonight. Even if he doesn’t start, he is going to see around 35 minutes tonight against the Blazers.

Austin Rivers
austin-rivers-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,000 Salary:$3,300
Position:PG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.65 FP/Min:0.69
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 21.8 23.7 1.9 23.3 1.5
FPPG (FD) 14.1 21.4 7.2 16.8 2.7
TO-Adj. Usage 16.4 20.2 3.8 19.0 2.6

Secondary Plays

J.J. Redick
j.j.-redick-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,200 Salary:$4,300
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.75 FP/Min:0.80
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.0 23.3 -4.7 22.0 -6.0
FPPG (FD) 21.1 19.3 -1.8 18.7 -2.3
TO-Adj. Usage 19.1 19.3 0.2 20.1 1.0

Rivers is the best value play at point guard tonight. With Chris Paul out, he is going to run the offense (at least while Crawford is on the bench) and he will also see a major boost in minutes. He is a low-risk, medium reward play tonight that everyone is going to be on in cash games. It’s close, but I slightly prefer him over Shaun Livingston.

Jeff Green
jeff-green-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,800 Salary:$3,400
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.73 FP/Min:0.76
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.2 25.6 -2.6 24.0 -4.2
FPPG (FD) 20.5 19.4 -1.1 20.5 0.0
TO-Adj. Usage 17.2 20.3 3.1 22.4 5.3

Green may become the third option offensively for the Clippers now that Blake Griffin and Chris Paul are out. He hasn’t played particularly well in this series, but he should see a nice boost in both minutes and usage rate. If you need a cheap small forward, he offers great value for the price.

Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors – 8:30 PM

Houston Rockets Golden State Warriors
houstonnba Vegas Total 212.0 goldenstatenba Vegas Total 212.0
Vegas Sprd 9.5 Vegas Sprd -9.5
Team Proj. 101.3 Team Proj. 110.8
Team Pace 100.10 Team Pace 101.60
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Donatas Motiejunas Dwight Howard Proj. Starter Shaun Livingston Klay Thompson Harrison Barnes Draymond Green Andrew Bogut
Opp. Season 20 9 15 17 19 Opp. Season 13 23 29 29 18
Last 3 Weeks 10 10 25 28 6 Last 3 Weeks 14 23 27 6 17

Houston Rockets

Record: 41-41 — Road: 18-23 — Last 10: 6-4

The Rockets are one loss away from being booted from the playoffs. They are listed as 9.5-point underdogs on the road in Game 5. The good news for Houston is that Stephen Curry has already been ruled out for the remainder of the series. It’s going to take a near perfect game for the Rockets to pull off the upset, but there is certainly a chance if James Harden can get hot. The usual suspects are in play here.

Elite Plays

James Harden
james-harden-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,500 Salary:$11,100
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:1.25 FP/Min:1.36
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 38.1 40.5 2.4 38.1 0.0
FPPG (FD) 47.7 50.0 2.3 47.8 0.2
TO-Adj. Usage 27.4 27.7 0.2 29.3 1.9

I see two scenarios for the Rockets tonight. James Harden will come out very aggressive and get the Rockets going early, or they will get down early and mail it in. That sort of makes Harden more of a boom or bust play tonight, but we have to spend up somewhere, right? Harden is at least coming off of two strong outings, scoring 58 and 51 fantasy points in his last two games.

Secondary Plays

Dwight Howard
dwight-howard-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,900 Salary:$6,800
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.02 FP/Min:1.10
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.1 28.2 -3.9 29.7 -2.4
FPPG (FD) 32.9 27.0 -5.9 31.3 -1.6
TO-Adj. Usage 14.5 12.2 -2.4 13.3 -1.2

Howard will be an afterthought tonight. As I mentioned above, everyone is going to gravitate toward DeAndre Jordan or Mason Plumlee. That should lead to a very low ownership for Howard, even though he has quietly played well in this series. He is a strong GPP play tonight.

Golden State Warriors

Record: 73-9 — Home: 39-2 — Last 10: 8-2

The Warriors were able to pick up a win in Game 4, but it didn’t come without a price. Stephen Curry injured his knee and is expected to be out for at least the next couple of weeks. They did catch a break though, as Chris Paul and Blake Griffin are out for the rest of the season, so they will either face a short-handed Clippers team or the Blazers in the second round. The Warriors have the highest team total on the board tonight at 110.8 points.

Elite Plays

Draymond Green
draymond-green-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,800 Salary:$9,700
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.13 FP/Min:1.23
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.7 35.8 1.1 34.2 -0.5
FPPG (FD) 39.1 41.0 1.9 34.1 -5.0
TO-Adj. Usage 16.0 15.5 -0.5 14.8 -1.2

It’s not quite to the level of “play Russell Westbrook when Kevin Durant is out,” but I always play Green with Stephen Curry is out. He becomes more of a facilitator offensively and he tends to look for his own shot a bit more. I expect him to be 1000% owned tonight, but there is a reason for that.

Klay Thompson
klay-thompson-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,600 Salary:$7,900
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.93 FP/Min:1.02
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.3 35.5 2.2 34.8 1.5
FPPG (FD) 30.9 29.2 -1.7 28.8 -2.2
TO-Adj. Usage 22.3 20.3 -2.0 18.9 -3.4

Thompson sees a major usage boost without Stephen Curry in the lineup. He could easily put up 25-30 shots tonight in a game that the Warriors desperately want to win. They do not want to have to go back to Houston for Game 6. Thompson is an elite play in all league formats tonight at home.

Shaun Livingston
shaun-livingston-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,400 Salary:$4,700
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.74 FP/Min:0.81
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 19.5 21.1 1.6 20.1 0.6
FPPG (FD) 14.3 16.8 2.4 17.2 2.9
TO-Adj. Usage 12.7 12.7 0.0 13.0 0.3

Given the nature of the salaries, it’s going to be tough to fit both Austin Rivers and Livingston in the same lineup (at least on FanDuel). Point guard is one of the only positions where we can actually pay up for players. I’m slightly leaning toward Rivers just because the Clippers don’t have as many complementary pieces as the Warriors do.

Andre Iguodala
andre-iguodala-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,300 Salary:$4,600
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.70 FP/Min:0.76
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 26.6 24.7 -1.9 24.7 -1.9
FPPG (FD) 18.5 12.9 -5.6 12.9 -5.6
TO-Adj. Usage 10.7 8.2 -2.6 8.2 -2.6

Iguodala has been terrific in the games that Stephen Curry has missed this series. He should see 30+ minutes tonight in a game that the Warriors need to win. He is my favorite value play at small forward tonight.

Secondary Plays

NONE

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious