NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, February 11th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
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The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
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New York at Orlando – 7:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Orlando -5, 190 Over/Under
- New York Proj. Starters – Calderon-Galloway-Thomas-Smith-Amundson
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Payton-Oladipo-Gordon-Frye-Vucevic
| New York | Orlando | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 190 |  | Vegas Total | 190 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.0 | Vegas Sprd | -5.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 92.5 | Team Proj. | 97.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 92.76 | Team Pace | 96.04 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jose Calderon | Langston Galloway | Lance Thomas | Jason Smith | Louis Amundson | Proj Starter | Elfrid Payton | Victor Oladipo | Aaron Gordon | Channing Frye | Nikola Vucevic | |
| Opp. Season | 29 | 8 | 29 | 24 | 28 | Opp. Season | 24 | 24 | 1 | 6 | 22 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 12 | 10 | 19 | 24 | 20 | Opp. Last 7 | 14 | 1 | 10 | 26 | 30 | |
New York
The Knicks currently own the worst record in the NBA. It may only get worse, as it sounds like Carmelo Anthony may shut it down for the rest of the season. He is not expected to play tonight, as the Knicks travel to Orlando to take on the Magic. The Knicks are 5-point underdogs tonight in a game that features a low total of 190 points. Anthony’s absence does open up a couple of value plays, but with eleven other games on the schedule, it may not hurt to avoid this team altogether.
Opponent Breakdown (Orlando)
Record: 16-39
Points Allowed Per Game: 102 (Rank: 24)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 25
Rebounding Differential Rank: 27
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Jason Smith (FD: $4900, DK: $4900 / MPG: 21 / Usage Rate: 19.5)
Smith continues to play well as a starter, averaging 9 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 assists per game. He should see a small uptick in usage tonight with Carmelo Anthony out and he draws a favorable matchup against a Magic team that has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to power forwards this season.
Lance Thomas (FD: $3500, DK: $3200 / MPG: 22 / Usage Rate: 17.6)
With Carmelo Anthony out, Thomas should slide into the starting lineup tonight against the Magic. He has played well off the bench this season and could push for 30+ minutes tonight against a poor defense. Thomas is close to minimum salary across the industry and offers some much needed salary cap relief if you are trying to target the likes of James Harden and Chris Paul.
Orlando
The Magic have lost nine of their last ten games, but should be able to pick up a win at home against the lowly Knicks. They will have to do it without Tobias Harris, as he has already been ruled out with a knee injury. Victor Oladipo, Nikola Vucevic, and Aaron Gordon should all see a small boost in Harris’ absence.
Opponent Breakdown (New York)
Record: 10-42
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.5 (Rank: 19)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 28
Rebounding Differential Rank: 28
h3. Elite Plays
Elite Plays
Nikola Vucevic (FD: $8400, DK: $8300 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 25.5)
Vucevic is coming off of two rough outings against the Bulls and Wizards, but we can give him a pass, as Joakim Noah and Marcin Gortat are two of the best low-post defenders in the NBA. He should bounce back tonight against the Knicks, whose frontcourt is less than intimidating. Vucevic’s price has come down on across the industry and he should see a sizable uptick in usage with Tobias Harris out.
Victor Oladipo (FD: $6900, DK: $6700 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 24.6)
Oladipo was already a strong play tonight and with Tobias Harris out, it only boosts his fantasy appeal. He draws an extremely favorable matchup against a Knicks’ team that has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to shooting guards this season. Oladipo has a high usage rate (24.6) in this offense and he has the rare ability to fill up all areas of the stat sheet. He has both a high floor and a high ceiling, making him a strong play in all league formats.
Secondary Plays
None
Atlanta at Boston – 7:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Atlanta -7.5, 202 Over/Under
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Horford
- Boston Proj. Starters – Smart-Bradley-Turner-Sullinger-Bass
| Atlanta | Boston | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 202 |  | Vegas Total | 202 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -7.5 | Vegas Sprd | 7.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 104.8 | Team Proj. | 97.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.11 | Team Pace | 98.55 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | DeMarre Carroll | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | Proj Starter | Marcus Smart | Avery Bradley | Evan Turner | Jared Sullinger | Brandon Bass | |
| Opp. Season | 20 | 6 | 13 | 27 | 21 | Opp. Season | 19 | 12 | 16 | 16 | 6 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 26 | 13 | 2 | 17 | Opp. Last 7 | 27 | 19 | 17 | 23 | 15 | |
Atlanta
The Hawks will look to continue their impressive play on the road, as they head to Boston to take on the Celtics. The Hawks are 7.5-point favorites with their team total set at 105 points. This is a favorable matchup for the Hawks, as the Celtics play at a very quick pace. They have also allowed the sixth-most points per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Boston)
Record: 19-31
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.6 (Rank: 25)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Rebounding Differential Rank: 18
h3. Elite Plays
Elite Plays
Paul Millsap (FD: $7900, DK: $7800 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 23.3)
Millsap flirted with a triple-double on Monday night with 19 points, 9 rebounds, and 7 assists. He has now scored at least 36 fantasy points in six of his last ten games. His price is under $8,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings, which means he needs less than 40 points to reach value. He is more than capable of reaching that mark tonight against a Celtics’ team that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards this season.
Secondary Plays
Al Horford (FD: $8300, DK: $7900 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 22.5)
Horford continues to make my list of suggested plays because he continues to produce at an incredibly high level. He has scored at least 37 fantasy points in eight of his last ten games. He also draws a favorable matchup against the Celtics, who are ranked 21st against centers and 18th in rebounding differential this season.
Boston
The Celtics have won five of their last ten games and find themselves two games out of the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference. They have a tall task ahead of them tonight though, as the Hawks are one of the best teams in the NBA. This is not a great matchup for fantasy purposes, as the Hawks have held their opponents to the fifth-fewest points per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Atlanta)
Record: 43-10
Points Allowed Per Game: 97 (Rank: 5)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 9
Rebounding Differential Rank: 26
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Jared Sullinger (FD: $6700, DK: $6700 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 23.5)
The Hawks have been stout defensively this season, but they have struggled to contain opposing power forwards recently. Sullinger is reasonably priced across the industry and he is coming off of a terrific four-game stretch, where he has averaged 37.6 fantasy points per contest.
Marcus Smart (FD: $4800, DK: $4700 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 14.3)
Smart is flying under the radar tonight, but I like his chances to reach value. Over his last five games, he has averaged 24.7 fantasy points in 36 minutes per outing. He also draws a favorable matchup against Jeff Teague and the Hawks, who have allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to point guards this season.
San Antonio at Detroit – 7:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -5.5, 195.5 Over/Under
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Bonner
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Augustin-Caldwell-Pope-Singler-Monroe-Drummond
| San Antonio | Detroit | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 195.5 |  | Vegas Total | 195.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -5.5 | Vegas Sprd | 5.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.5 | Team Proj. | 95.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.46 | Team Pace | 95.80 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | Tim Duncan | Matt Bonner | Proj Starter | D.J. Augustin | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Kyle Singler | Greg Monroe | Andre Drummond | |
| Opp. Season | 5 | 14 | 24 | 28 | 27 | Opp. Season | 7 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 19 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 27 | Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 8 | 21 | 21 | 16 | |
San Antonio
The Spurs are always a tough team to predict, but the All-Star Break coming up, there is no reason for Coach Popovich to limit his veteran’s minutes. We can tentatively expect the starters to all see their usual complement of minutes tonight. The Spurs draw a mediocre matchup against the Pistons, who are ranked 17th in both defensive efficiency and points allowed per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Detroit)
Record: 21-32
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.7 (Rank: 17)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 17
Rebounding Differential Rank: 9
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Kawhi Leonard (FD: $7700, DK: $7500 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 22.6)
Leonard is a borderline elite play tonight against the Pistons. His price is down across the industry and he draws a favorable matchup against a Pistons’ team that does not defend the small forward position well. He’s the most reliable Spurs’ player and is the only one that I would recommend as a cash game play tonight.
Tony Parker (FD: $5400, DK: $4900 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 24.9)
Parker is coming off of a strong outing against the Pacers, scoring 19 points and dishing out 6 assists. His price is still depressed across the industry, making him an intriguing tournament play tonight against the Pistons. There are better options for cash games, but he has good upside for a player at his price point.
Detroit
The Pistons have lost six of their last ten games and draw a tough matchup against the Spurs tonight. On the season, the Spurs are ranked third in both defensive efficiency and points allowed per game. They are also ranked in the top ten in rebounding differential. This is not a matchup that I want very much exposure to, especially considering the large slate of games.
Opponent Breakdown (San Antonio)
Record: 33-19
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.9 (Rank: 3)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 3
Rebounding Differential Rank: 10
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Greg Monroe (FD: $8000, DK: $8300 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 23.8)
Monroe is coming off of another strong outing, scoring 23 points and grabbing 12 rebounds against the Hornets. That’s the type of upside that he brings to the table every time he steps onto the floor. He actually draws a decent matchup against the Spurs, who are ranked 23rd against power forwards this season.
Washington at Toronto – 7:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Toronto -5, 199.5 Over/Under
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Temple-Pierce-Hilario-Gortat
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-DeRozan-Johnson-Johnson-Valanciunas
| Washington | Toronto | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 199.5 |  | Vegas Total | 199.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.0 | Vegas Sprd | -5.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.3 | Team Proj. | 102.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.74 | Team Pace | 95.69 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | John Wall | Garrett Temple | Paul Pierce | Nene Hilario | Marcin Gortat | Proj Starter | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | James Johnson | Amir Johnson | Jonas Valanciunas | |
| Opp. Season | 18 | 10 | 18 | 8 | 11 | Opp. Season | 8 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 3 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 17 | 24 | 6 | 28 | 3 | Opp. Last 7 | 19 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 13 | |
Washington
The Wizards have lost six of their last ten games and head to Toronto to take on a very talented Raptors’ team. The Wizards will be without Bradley Beal tonight, as he has already been ruled out with a toe injury. His absence should give a small fantasy boost to John Wall, Garrett Temple, and Rasual Butler. Overall, this is an exploitable matchup. The Raptors play at a quick tempo and have allowed the ninth-most points per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Toronto)
Record: 35-17
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.9 (Rank: 22)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 19
Rebounding Differential Rank: 16
Elite Plays
John Wall (FD: $9100, DK: $9000 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 24.9)
Wall sprained his ankle the other night, but appears to be on track to play tonight against the Wizards. He has played well through his nagging injuries, scoring at least 37 fantasy points in seven of his last ten games. Wall has great upside in this matchup and deserves strong consideration at his price point.
Secondary Plays
Marcin Gortat (FD: $5500, DK: $5100 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 18.1)
Gortat seems to have broken out of his slump. He is coming off of a strong game against the Magic in which he had 14 points, 14 rebounds, and 3 assists. He should see 30+ minutes tonight against a Raptors’ team that has one of the biggest frontcourts in the NBA. Gortat would also see a small boost if Kris Humphries (questionable) is ruled out.
Toronto
The Raptors have won eight of their last ten games and currently sit in the second seed in the Eastern Conference. They are listed as 5-point favorites tonight against the Wizards, but this is not as good of a matchup as the high total may suggest. The Wizards are ranked in the top ten in defensive efficiency, points allowed per game, and rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Washington)
Record: 33-20
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.4 (Rank: 8)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 5
Rebounding Differential Rank: 4
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
DeMar DeRozan (FD: $6900, DK: $7000 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 27.9)
DeRozan is one of those players that always seems to play well in tough matchups. He has a very high usage rate in the Raptors’ offense and he sees a small boost with Bradley Beal out. DeRozan has scored at least 33 fantasy points in six of his last nine games and has a good chance to reach that mark again tonight.
James Johnson (FD: $4000, DK: $3600 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 16.4)
Johnson drew the start at small forward the other night and he played well with 24 fantasy points in 30 minutes of playing time. His minutes aren’t guaranteed, given the depth of the Raptors’ bench, but he makes for an appealing value play if he is in the starting lineup again tonight.
Indiana at New Orleans – 8:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – New Orleans -3, 189.5 Over/Under
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Stuckey-Miles-West-Hibbert
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Evans-Gordon-Cunningham-Ajinca-Asik
| Indiana | New Orleans | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 189.5 |  | Vegas Total | 189.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.0 | Vegas Sprd | -3.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 93.3 | Team Proj. | 96.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.47 | Team Pace | 94.12 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | George Hill | Rodney Stuckey | C.J. Miles | David West | Roy Hibbert | Proj Starter | Tyreke Evans | Eric Gordon | Dante Cunningham | Alexis Ajinca | Omer Asik | |
| Opp. Season | 22 | 15 | 17 | 10 | 7 | Opp. Season | 14 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 12 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 25 | 22 | 29 | 24 | 7 | Opp. Last 7 | 18 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 24 | |
Indiana
The Pacers just can’t seem to turn the corner this season. They are 5-5 in their last ten games and are still two and a half games out of the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference. They head to New Orleans to take on the Pelicans, who may be short-handed tonight. The Pacers are listed as 3-point underdogs in a game that features a low total of 189.5 points.
Opponent Breakdown (New Orleans)
Record: 27-25
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.6 (Rank: 15)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 24
Rebounding Differential Rank: 5
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
David West (FD: $6800, DK: $6500 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 22.3)
With eleven other games on tonight’s schedule, West is the only Pacers’ player that is on my radar. He is a reliable option that can be used in cash games, especially if Anthony Davis is ruled out. West has scored at least 27 fantasy points in each of his last eight games, averaging 33 fantasy points per game in that span.
New Orleans
The big question with the Pelicans tonight is the availability of Anthony Davis. The Pelicans have no reason to rush him back with the All-Star Break, so I’d be surprised to see him in the lineup tonight unless he was 100% healthy. Ryan Anderson has already been ruled out, which means we could see another healthy dose of Omer Asik and Alexis Ajinca down low. The Pelicans do have a tough matchup against the Pacers, but Davis’ absence would really open the door for a few players.
Opponent Breakdown (Indiana)
Record: 20-33
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.3 (Rank: 7)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 11
Rebounding Differential Rank: 5
Elite Plays
Tyreke Evans (FD: $8400, DK: $8200 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 25.8)
Evans had a monster first half against the Jazz the other night. While he didn’t do a whole lot in the second half, he still finished the game with 18 points, 7 rebounds, and 10 assists. If Anthony Davis is ruled out tonight, he could be in line for another big outing against the Pacers, who are ranked 14th against point guards this season.
Eric Gordon (FD: $6300, DK: $5900 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 18.8)
Gordon also had a big game against the Jazz with 31 points, 3 rebounds, and 3 assists. He should see a sizable boost in usage if Anthony Davis is ruled out. His price is more than reasonable across the industry and he draws a favorable matchup against the Pacers, who have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to shooting guards this season.
Secondary Plays
Omer Asik (FD: $4800, DK: $4300 and Alexis Ajinca (FD: $4200, DK: $3800) would both become viable options tonight if Anthony Davis is ruled out.