NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, February 11th - Page Two
Miami at Cleveland – 8:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Cleveland -12, 194 Over/Under
- Miami Proj. Starters – Napier-Chalmers-Deng-Bosh-Whiteside
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Smith-James-Love-Mozgov
| Miami | Cleveland | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 194 |  | Vegas Total | 194 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 12.0 | Vegas Sprd | -12.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 91.00 | Team Proj. | 103.00 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 91.81 | Team Pace | 94.65 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Shabazz Napier | Mario Chalmers | Luol Deng | Chris Bosh | Hassan Whiteside | Proj Starter | Kyrie Irving | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Timofey Mozgov | |
| Opp. Season | 11 | 22 | 27 | 17 | 13 | Opp. Season | 15 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 8 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 28 | 16 | 4 | 30 | 4 | Opp. Last 7 | 24 | 21 | 28 | 5 | 12 | |
Miami
The Heat head to Cleveland to take on their former teammate LeBron James. Dwyane Wade has already been ruled out of tonight’s game, which means we could see another Cavaliers’ blowout. The Heat are 12-point underdogs tonight in a game that features a low total of 194 points. This is not a favorable matchup by any means, but the Heat do have the added motivation to play well against their former teammate.
Opponent Breakdown (Cleveland)
Record: 32-21
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.2 (Rank: 13)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 22
Rebounding Differential Rank: 8
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Chris Bosh (FD: $7900, DK: $7500 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 28.9)
Bosh is coming off of a strong performance against the Timberwolves, scoring 32 points and dishing out 6 assists. He should see a boost in usage with Dwyane Wade out and the revenge factor is present tonight. Bosh is a borderline elite play, but I’m concerned that the Heat get down big, which could mean only three quarters of action for Bosh.
Hassan Whiteside (FD: $7700, DK: $7600 / MPG: 19 / Usage Rate: 21.2)
Whiteside got into foul trouble against the Grizzlies, but he still managed to score 21 fantasy points in only 19 minutes of action. He should see minutes in the low 30’s tonight against the Cavaliers. He is a tempting play in cash games, but is better served as a GPP play tonight in a potential blowout.
Cleveland
The Cavaliers are on a roll right now, but this game is all about LeBron James vs. his former team. In their first meeting this season, the Heat got the best of LeBron. I’m expecting a much different result this time around. Overall, this is a very tough matchup. The Heat are the slowest paced team in the NBA and have allowed the second-fewest points per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Miami)
Record: 22-29
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.3 (Rank: 2)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 18
Rebounding Differential Rank: 23
Elite Plays
LeBron James (FD: $10800, DK: $10300 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 32.3)
James is playing his best basketball of the season. He is also facing his former team. Need I say more? James has all the motivation in the world to play well tonight, as he will be facing a team that he led to back-to-back championships. As mentioned above, the blowout potential is there, but so is the potential for James to post a triple-double.
Secondary Plays
None
Sacramento at Milwaukee – 8:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Milwaukee -9.5, 195.5 Over/Under
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – Sessions-McLemore-Gay-Thompson-Cousins
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Middleton-Antetokounmpo-Dudley-Henson
| Sacramento | Milwaukee | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 195.5 |  | Vegas Total | 195.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 9.5 | Vegas Sprd | -9.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 93 | Team Proj. | 102.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.35 | Team Pace | 96.31 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ramon Sessions | Ben McLemore | Rudy Gay | Jason Thompson | DeMarcus Cousins | Proj Starter | Brandon Knight | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Jared Dudley | John Henson | |
| Opp. Season | 1 | 11 | 26 | 9 | 18 | Opp. Season | 26 | 30 | 8 | 19 | 26 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 1 | 20 | 24 | 20 | 21 | Opp. Last 7 | 21 | 28 | 16 | 15 | 29 | |
Sacramento
The Kings are in absolute free-fall mode after getting blown out by the Bulls last night. They have lost eight of their last ten games and have to face a defensive-minded Bucks’ team tonight. The Bucks are ranked second in defensive efficiency and sixth in points allowed per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Milwaukee)
Record: 29-23
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.1 (Rank: 6)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 2
Rebounding Differential Rank: 22
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
DeMarcus Cousins (FD: $10800, DK: $10500 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 33.8)
If I had any confidence in the Kings’ ability to keep this game close, Cousins would be an elite play tonight. Unfortunately, they do not inspire any confidence at all right now, which leaves Cousins as a better tournament play than a cash game play. He still has as much upside as any player on the board though, so don’t completely fade Boogie tonight if you are playing in tournaments.
Ramon Sessions (FD: $3800, DK: $4200 / MPG: 17 / Usage Rate: 19.6)
Sessions put up a dud last night against the Bulls, but should draw another start at point guard tonight with Darren Collison out. Sessions is still very cheap across the industry and he has scored at least 21 fantasy points in two of his last three games. At his price point, he’s a serviceable value play against the Bucks.
Milwaukee
The Bucks have won eight of their last ten games. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the visiting Kings, whose defense has absent for the last few weeks. The Kings are now ranked 25th in defensive efficiency this season, giving up an average of 104.1 points per game to their opponents.
Opponent Breakdown (Sacramento)
Record: 18-33
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.1 (Rank: 26)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 25
Rebounding Differential Rank: 1
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Giannis Antetokounmpo (FD: $6800, DK: $7000 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 19.5)
The Greek Alphabet has been on a tear, scoring at least 35 fantasy points in each of his last five games. There are two concerns that hold him back from being an elite play tonight though. His price is up across the industry, especially on both FanDuel and DraftKings. There is also a chance that this game turns into a blowout, as the Kings have been awful over the last three weeks of play. Giannis will be a popular play tonight, but it may not be a bad time to fade him with all of the other options available.
Brandon Knight (FD: $7700, DK: $7400 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 26.2)
Knight has played extremely well recently, scoring at least 37 fantasy points in four of his last six games. He draws a favorable matchup against the Kings, who have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to point guards this season. He makes for a strong contrarian play if you are looking to differentiate your lineups.
Golden State at Minnesota – 8:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Golden State -8.5, 215.5 Over/Under
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Bogut
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Wiggins-Young-Pekovic
| Golden State | Minnesota | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 215.5 |  | Vegas Total | 215.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -8.5 | Vegas Sprd | 8.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 112 | Team Proj. | 103.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 101.22 | Team Pace | 97.31 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Andrew Bogut | Proj Starter | Ricky Rubio | Kevin Martin | Andrew Wiggins | Thaddeus Young | Nikola Pekovic | |
| Opp. Season | 28 | 23 | 30 | 25 | 29 | Opp. Season | 9 | 9 | 9 | 18 | 20 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 16 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 28 | Opp. Last 7 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 12 | 26 | |
Golden State
The Warriors own the best record in the NBA. They will look to improve on it tonight, as they head to Minnesota to take on the Timberwolves. This game has one of the highest totals on the board and could be a gold mine for fantasy production if the Wolves are able to keep this game close. The Wolves have allowed their opponents to score the second-most points per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Minnesota)
Record: 11-41
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.3 (Rank: 29)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 30
Rebounding Differential Rank: 21
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Stephen Curry (FD: $10000, DK: $10300 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 28.1)
Curry has been on an absolute tear recently, scoring at least 40 fantasy points in eight of his last nine games. He draws a favorable matchup against an uptempo Wolves’ team that has struggled to contain point guards this season. I prefer Chris Paul over Curry tonight, but would not mind both if you can somehow make the salaries work.
Klay Thompson (FD: $7500, DK: $7900 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 27.4)
Thompson is an appealing tournament play tonight against the Wolves. Not only is this game projected as one of the highest scoring of the night, but the Wolves have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to shooting guards. We all know the type of upside that Thompson provides and his price has come down across the industry.
Minnesota
The Wolves are a much better basketball team now that they are healthy. While they have lost six of their last ten games, they have been very competitive recently. They are listed as 8.5-point underdogs tonight against the Warriors, but I like their chances to keep this game within ten points. The Warriors are extremely efficient defensively, but their quick pace of play helps offset that. On the season, they have allowed the 13th-most points per game.
Opponent Breakdown (Golden State)
Record: 41-9
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.8 (Rank: 18)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 1
Rebounding Differential Rank: 17
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Kevin Martin (FD: $6800, DK: $6100 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 26.8)
Martin has been terrific since coming back from his injury, scoring at least 23 fantasy points in each of his last eight games. He has topped 30 fantasy points in three of his last four and has a very high usage rate in this offense. The one thing holding him back from being an elite play tonight is his matchup against Klay Thompson, who is one of the best on-ball defenders in the NBA.
Thaddeus Young (FD: $6700, DK: $6000 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 21.3)
Young continues to see all of the minutes that he can handle. Over his last five games, he has averaged 30.7 fantasy points in 39 minutes per outings. He should see a healthy dose of minutes again tonight and he is still reasonably priced on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Memphis at Oklahoma City – 8:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -5.5, 197 Over/Under
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Green-Randolph-Gasol
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Roberson-Durant-Ibaka-Perkins
| Memphis | Oklahoma City | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 197 |  | Vegas Total | 197 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.50 | Vegas Sprd | -5.50 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.75 | Team Proj. | 101.25 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.11 | Team Pace | 97.18 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Mike Conley | Courtney Lee | Jeff Green | Zach Randolph | Marc Gasol | Proj Starter | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Kevin Durant | Serge Ibaka | Kendrick Perkins | |
| Opp. Season | 27 | 7 | 21 | 21 | 4 | Opp. Season | 4 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 1 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 30 | 5 | 25 | 17 | 9 | Opp. Last 7 | 23 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | |
Memphis
The Grizzlies have won nine of their last ten games and have climbed to the second seed in the Western Conference. They have a tough test ahead of them tonight, as they take on the Thunder in Oklahoma City. Vegas has the Grizzlies listed as 5.5-point underdogs in a game that features a relatively low total of 197 points. On paper, this is a tough matchup, as the Thunder are ranked in the top eleven in defensive efficiency, points allowed per game, and rebounding differential.
Opponent Breakdown (Oklahoma City)
Record: 27-25
Points Allowed Per Game: 99 (Rank: 11)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 10
Rebounding Differential Rank: 3
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Marc Gasol (FD: $8300, DK: $7600 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 24.8)
Marc “Raise the Floor” Gasol should live up to his new nickname tonight. He is one of the most reliable fantasy options at any position. He has scored at least 33 fantasy points in five of his last six games and should have another productive all-around outing tonight against the Thunder. He’s a strong play in cash games.
Oklahoma City
The Thunder draw a very tough matchup against the Grizzlies tonight. Not only do the Grizzlies force opponent’s to play down to their pace, but they have also held their opponents to the fewest points per game this season. This could be a night to avoid the Thunder altogether, but there is one Kevin Durant that begs to differ.
Opponent Breakdown (Memphis)
Record: 39-13
Points Allowed Per Game: 95.6 (Rank: 1)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 8
Rebounding Differential Rank: 13
Elite Plays
Kevin Durant (FD: $10600, DK: $10300 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 29.2)
Durant is about as matchup-proof of a player as you are going to find in the NBA. While Jeff Green and Tony Allen are both capable defenders, Durant can create his own shot whenever he wants to. He has scored at least 42 fantasy points in four of his last five games and I’ll go out on a limb and predict a 50-burger from him tonight. Don’t be surprised to see him play 40+ minutes in this one.
Secondary Plays
None
Utah at Dallas – 8:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Dallas -3.5, 196.5 Over/Under
- Utah Proj. Starters – Exum-Millsap-Hayward-Favors-Kanter
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Barea-Harris-Parsons-Nowitzki-Smith
| Utah | Dallas | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 196.5 |  | Vegas Total | 196.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.5 | Vegas Sprd | -3.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 96.5 | Team Proj. | 100.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 92.78 | Team Pace | 96.64 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Dante Exum | Elijah Millsap | Gordon Hayward | Derrick Favors | Enes Kanter | Proj Starter | J.J. Barea | Devin Harris | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Greg Smith | |
| Opp. Season | 25 | 3 | 15 | 11 | 16 | Opp. Season | 12 | 18 | 11 | 15 | 2 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 29 | 11 | 18 | 16 | 18 | Opp. Last 7 | 15 | 9 | 20 | 22 | 10 | |
Utah
The Jazz are looking for their third win in a row tonight, as they head to Dallas to take on the Mavericks. If there was ever a time for the Jazz to beat the Mavs in Dallas, this would be it. Tyson Chandler has already been ruled out and Monta Ellis is questionable for this game. This is actually a pretty favorable matchup for the Jazz. The Mavericks have allowed the eighth-most points per game this season and will be without their defensive anchor down low.
Opponent Breakdown (Dallas)
Record: 35-19
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.3 (Rank: 23)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 14
Rebounding Differential Rank: 29
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Gordon Hayward (FD: $8500, DK: $8200 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 25.2)
Hayward would have been an elite play if it wasn’t for his price bump. His price is up over $8,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings, which means he needs at least 40 fantasy points to meet value expectations. He’s certainly capable of that feat, but there are better values at the small forward position tonight.
Derrick Favors (FD: $7400, DK: $7200 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 23.1)
Favors has had a nice string of games, scoring at least 31 fantasy points in seven of his last eight games. He should be able to take advantage of a Mavericks’ team that will be without Tyson Chandler. For reference, DeAndre Jordan had 22 points and 27 rebounds against the Chandler-less Mavericks the other night.
Dallas
The Mavericks will be without Tyson Chandler tonight. They were expected to be without Monta Ellis as well, but he has been upgraded to questionable. Ellis has an active streak of 218 games and I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest to see him play through his hip injury tonight. That said, if Ellis is forced out of tonight’s game, J.J. Barea, Devin Harris, Chandler Parsons, and Dirk Nowitzki would all see an uptick in minutes and/or usage.
Opponent Breakdown (Utah)
Record: 19-33
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.4 (Rank: 10)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 27
Rebounding Differential Rank: 2
Elite Plays
Chandler Parsons (FD: $6600, DK: $6500 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 20.5)
With the injuries to the Mavericks, Parsons may be asked to play close to 40 minutes tonight. He should also see a small uptick in usage as well. That bodes well for his fantasy appeal against. While the Jazz have been stingy against small forwards this season, Parsons’ increased role outweighs the mediocre matchup. Parsons has also played well recently, scoring at least 33 fantasy points in four of his last five games.
J.J. Barea (FD: $4800, DK: $4900 / MPG: 17 / Usage Rate: 22.1)
If Ellis is forced to sit out tonight, Barea would see an uptick in minutes and usage against a Jazz team that has been average against opposing point guards this season. Barea has scored at least 20 fantasy points in each of his last five games and he’s still priced at a reasonable across the industry. I’d move him down to a secondary option if Ellis is active tonight.
Secondary Plays
Dirk Nowitzki (FD: $6300, DK: $6400) and Devin Harris (FD: $4500, DK: $4600) are both in play tonight. They would both see a sizable boost if Ellis is ruled out.