NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, February 11th - Page Three
L.A. Lakers at Portland – 10:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Portland -13.5, 195.5 Over/Under
- L.A. Lakers Proj. Starters – Clarkson-Ellington-Kelly-Black-Sacre
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez
| L.A. Lakers | Portland | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 195.5 |  | Vegas Total | 195.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 13.5 | Vegas Sprd | -13.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 91.0 | Team Proj. | 104.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.75 | Team Pace | 96.69 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jordan Clarkson | Wayne Ellington | Ryan Kelly | Tarik Black | Robert Sacre | Proj Starter | Damian Lillard | Wesley Matthews | Nicolas Batum | LaMarcus Aldridge | Robin Lopez | |
| Opp. Season | 21 | 17 | 14 | 2 | 10 | Opp. Season | 30 | 21 | 20 | 12 | 24 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 2 | 30 | 9 | 3 | 14 | Opp. Last 7 | 22 | 14 | 27 | 13 | 23 | |
L.A. Lakers
The Lakers are playing in the tail end of a back-to-back. They are also facing one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. That doesn’t bode well for their fantasy appeal. The Lakers are 13.5-point underdogs tonight against the Blazers in a game that could easily turn into a rout.
Opponent Breakdown (Portland)
Record: 35-17
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.5 (Rank: 9)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 4
Rebounding Differential Rank: 14
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Jordan Clarkson (FD: $4900, DK: $5100 / MPG: 18 / Usage Rate: 21.6)
Clarkson was the popular play across the industry last night. He let a lot of people down, which means his ownership level should be very low tonight. He’s still a viable value play in my eyes though, as he has scored at least 26 fantasy points in five of his last seven games. He should see 30+ minutes tonight against the Blazers, regardless of the outcome.
Portland
The Blazers draw a premier matchup against the Lakers, who are ranked 29th in both defensive efficiency and points allowed per game. The potential for a big outing from the Blazers is there, but there is obviously the risk of this one turning into a blowout. With eleven other games on the schedule, there is no need to take the risk in cash games.
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Lakers)
Record: 13-39
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.3 (Rank: 29)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 29
Rebounding Differential Rank: 20
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
LaMarcus Aldridge (FD: $9600, DK: $9600 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 29.8)
Aldridge draws an elite matchup against the Lakers, but again, he may end up playing only three quarters. For that reason, I will be using him strictly as a tournament play tonight.
Damian Lillard (FD: $8900, DK: $8700 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 26.5)
After all of the fuss, Lillard is now an All-Star. He no longer has that chip on his shoulder, but he does draw a premier matchup against a Lakers’ defense that has allowed more fantasy points to point guards than any other team in the NBA this season.
Houston at L.A. Clippers – 10:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – L.A. Clippers -3.5, 213 Over/Under
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Ariza-Motiejunas-Dorsey
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Redick-Barnes-Hawes-Jordan
| Houston | L.A. Clippers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 213 |  | Vegas Total | 213 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.50 | Vegas Sprd | -3.50 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 104.75 | Team Proj. | 108.25 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.53 | Team Pace | 96.25 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Patrick Beverley | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Donatas Motiejunas | Joey Dorsey | Proj Starter | Chris Paul | J.J. Redick | Matt Barnes | Spencer Hawes | DeAndre Jordan | |
| Opp. Season | 3 | 16 | 23 | 14 | 17 | Opp. Season | 2 | 28 | 12 | 20 | 15 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 9 | 29 | 30 | 27 | 5 | Opp. Last 7 | 11 | 27 | 1 | 18 | 11 | |
Houston
The Rockets picked up a win over the Suns in Phoenix last night. They have now won seven of their last ten games and have improved their road record to 18-8. Tonight they face a Blake Griffin-less Clippers team in a game that has one of the highest totals on the board. If I had to load up on players from a single game tonight, this would be the one.
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Clippers)
Record: 34-19
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.8 (Rank: 21)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 20
Rebounding Differential Rank: 19
Elite Plays
James Harden (FD: $11200, DK: $10300 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 31.4)
At this point, Harden is reaching that “fade at your own risk” territory. He was in full video game mode last night against the Suns, posting an incredible stat line of 40 points, 12 rebounds, and 9 assists. He has taken over offensively with Dwight Howard on the shelf and should be considered the top overall fantasy option tonight. He also draws a favorable matchup against a Clippers’ team that has struggled to defend talented wing scorers.
Secondary Plays
Trevor Ariza (FD: $5500, DK: $5700 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 16.9)
Ariza got of to a blazing start last night, but was quiet in the second half. He still finished with 24 fantasy points though. He has really flourished in Dwight Howard’s absence, averaging 31.4 fantasy points per game over his last five outings. He is a solid mid-range option at small forwards against a Clippers’ team that has struggled to defend the position.
L.A. Clippers
The Clippers picked up a big win over the Mavericks on Monday night. Granted, the Mavericks lost both Monta Ellis and Tyson Chandler, but it was a much-needed victory for the Clips. Tonight they host the Rockets in what is expected to be one of the highest scoring games of the night. The Rockets are not the same team defensively with Dwight Howard out of the lineup, so I consider this an elite matchup for fantasy production.
Opponent Breakdown (Houston)
Record: 36-16
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.6 (Rank: 15)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 5
Rebounding Differential Rank: 11
Elite Plays
Chris Paul (FD: $10000, DK: $9600 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 22.6)
My hope is that a small increase in price combined with a tough matchup against Patrick Beverley will lower Paul’s ownership percentage tonight. Without Blake Griffin in the lineup, Paul is easily the top point guard in tonight’s slate and it’s not even close. In his last two starts without Griffin, Paul has averaged 22 points, 6 rebounds, and 13 assists per game. He will be forced to take over offensively again tonight in a high-scoring game against the Rockets.
DeAndre Jordan (FD: $8600, DK: $7800 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 12)
Jordan is fresh off of a video game-like performance against the Mavericks. He finished with 22 points and 27 rebounds. He should see close to 40 minutes of action tonight against the Rockets, who do not have an elite rebounder with Dwight Howard out. Jordan has a great chance to post 15+ points and 15+ rebounds again tonight. At a price of only $7,800 on DraftKings, he is the chalk play at center.
Secondary Plays
Matt Barnes (FD: $4900, DK: $4300), J.J. Redick (FD: $4300, DK: $3300), and Spencer Hawes (FD: $3800, DK: $3700) are all viable secondary options against the Rockets.