NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, February 4th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
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Detroit at Indiana – 7:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Indiana -3, 193 Over/Under
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Augustin-Caldwell-Pope-Singler-Monroe-Drummond
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Watson-Stuckey-Hill-West-Hibbert
| Detroit | Indiana | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 193 |  | Vegas Total | 193 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.0 | Vegas Sprd | -3.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.0 | Team Proj. | 98.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.05 | Team Pace | 95.61 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | D.J. Augustin | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Kyle Singler | Greg Monroe | Andre Drummond | Proj Starter | C.J. Watson | Rodney Stuckey | Solomon Hill | David West | Roy Hibbert | |
| Opp. Season | 14 | 28 | 6 | 1 | 10 | Opp. Season | 8 | 15 | 29 | 27 | 25 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 11 | 17 | 14 | 9 | 12 | Opp. Last 7 | 26 | 8 | 30 | 14 | 26 | |
Detroit
The Pistons head to Indiana to take on one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA. The Pacers are also ranked sixth in points allowed per game this season. The Pistons are only projected to score 95 points tonight, which is quite a bit lower than their season average. There are better matchups to exploit tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Indiana)
Record: 17-32
Points Allowed Per Game: 97 (Rank: 6)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 11
Rebounding Differential Rank: 6
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
D.J. Augustin (FD: $7000, DK: $6200 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 21.9)
Augustin deserves consideration thanks to his recent performance. Over his last five games, he has averaged 23 points, 3 rebounds, and 9 assists per game. And yes, that includes the dud that he put up against the Sixers. There is some concern that this is the tail end of a back-to-back, but Augustin’s affordable price puts him in play tonight against the Pacers.
Indiana
The Pacers have lost eight of their last ten games, but are three-point favorites tonight against the Pistons. This is a decent matchup on paper, as the Pistons are ranked 17th in defensive efficiency and 18th in points allowed per game. There are a couple of secondary plays on the Pacers tonight, but no one stands out as an elite play.
Opponent Breakdown (Detroit)
Record: 19-30
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.8 (Rank: 18)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 17
Rebounding Differential Rank: 9
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
David West (FD: $6600, DK: $6300 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 22.3)
West is synonymous with cash games. He doesn’t provide a ton of upside, but he is a reliable option with a high floor. He has scored at least 27 fantasy points in each of his last four games. He also draws a favorable matchup against a Pistons’ team that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to power forwards this season.
C.J. Miles (FD: $5000, DK: $3300 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 24.2)
Miles is one of DraftKings’ blue-light specials tonight. He is listed a bargain-bin price of $3,300 and he draws a favorable matchup against the Pistons, who have struggled to defend wing players this season. Miles has 30 fantasy point type of upside and could be a risk that is rewarded handsomely.
Washington at Atlanta – 7:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Atlanta -5.5, 198.5 Over/Under
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Pierce-Hilario-Gortat
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Horford
| Washington | Atlanta | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 198 |  | Vegas Total | 198 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.5 | Vegas Sprd | -5.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 96.5 | Team Proj. | 102.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.80 | Team Pace | 95.95 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Paul Pierce | Nene Hilario | Marcin Gortat | Proj Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | DeMarre Carroll | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | |
| Opp. Season | 17 | 12 | 13 | 17 | 5 | Opp. Season | 5 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 3 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 23 | 14 | 15 | 27 | 8 | Opp. Last 7 | 14 | 25 | 20 | 8 | 4 | |
Washington
Tonight’s game against the Hawks will be a battle between two of the best teams in the Eastern Conference. The Hawks currently sit atop the standings, but the Wizards are not far behind. While this game is expected to be competitive, it’s not a great source for fantasy production. The Hawks are ranked third in fantasy points allowed to their opponents this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Atlanta)
Record: 40-9
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.5 (Rank: 3)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 6
Rebounding Differential Rank: 22
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
John Wall (FD: $9300, DK: $8900 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 25)
Wall has been playing through some nagging injuries, but it hasn’t affected his fantasy production. He has scored at least 42 fantasy points in five of his last seven games. Tonight he draws a favorable matchup against Jeff Teague and the Hawks, who have really struggled to defend opposing point guards in recent weeks.
Atlanta
The Hawks 19-game winning streak was snapped by the Pelicans on Monday night. They will look to start a new streak tonight, as they host the Wizards. The Hawks have one of the most well-balanced offenses in the NBA, which hurts the fantasy appeal of the individual players. The Hawks are also facing a Wizards team that is ranked in the top ten in defensive efficiency, points allowed per game, and rebounding differential. On a full slate, the Hawks are an easy team to avoid altogether tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Washington)
Record: 31-18
Points Allowed Per Game: 98 (Rank: 9)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 7
Rebounding Differential Rank: 4
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Denver at Boston – 7:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Boston -2.5, 200.5 Over/Under
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Afflalo-Chandler-Faried-Nurkic
- Boston Proj. Starters – Smart-Bradley-Turner-Sullinger-Bass
| Denver | Boston | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 200 |  | Vegas Total | 200 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 2.5 | Vegas Sprd | -2.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.0 | Team Proj. | 101.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.36 | Team Pace | 98.89 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ty Lawson | Arron Afflalo | Wilson Chandler | Kenneth Faried | Jusuf Nurkic | Proj Starter | Marcus Smart | Avery Bradley | Evan Turner | Jared Sullinger | Brandon Bass | |
| Opp. Season | 22 | 2 | 12 | 29 | 22 | Opp. Season | 13 | 27 | 23 | 28 | 27 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 2 | 27 | 3 | 23 | 19 | Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 16 | 27 | 25 | 24 | |
Denver
The Nuggets lost to the lowly Sixers last night in Philadelphia. They have now lost nine of their last ten games and their road record is sitting at a paltry 7-17. Despite their recent level of play, the Nuggets are only 2.5-point underdogs tonight against the Celtics. This is a favorable matchup for the most part, as the Celtics play at a quick pace and have allowed the sixth-most points per game to their opponents this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Boston)
Record: 17-30
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.9 (Rank: 25)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Rebounding Differential Rank: 19
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Wilson Chandler (FD: $5700, DK: $5700 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 20.3)
Ty Lawson is slumping, Arron Afflalo can’t find his shot, and the Nuggets’ bigs do not see consistent minutes. Chandler is really the only play that stands out tonight against the Celtics. He has played well over his last seven games, averaging 28 fantasy points per contest. He may also benefit from a matchup perspective if he is defended by Evan Turner, rather than Jae Crowder who was benched in favor of Marcus Smart.
Boston
The Celtics picked up a win over the Knicks last night, but have still lost six of their last ten games. They have a good shot of starting a winning streak tonight, as they host the struggling Nuggets. This is one of the more favorable matchups on tonight’s schedule. The Nuggets play at a very quick pace and have allowed the fifth-most points per game to their opponents this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Denver)
Record: 19-30
Points Allowed Per Game: 104 (Rank: 26)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 23
Rebounding Differential Rank: 11
Elite Plays
Marcus Smart (FD: $4600, DK: $3700 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 14.7)
Smart drew the start at point guard last night against the Knicks. He performed admirably, as he finished the game with 13 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, and 2 steals. The most promising statistic may have been his 37 minutes of playing time. He will likely another start tonight against the Nuggets. Smart is one of the top value plays on DraftKings at $3,700 and he deserves strong consideration on the other sites across the industry.
Secondary Plays
Jared Sullinger (FD: $6200, DK: $6500 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 23.2)
Sullinger seems to make the list of suggested plays more often than not, yet no one ever seems to use him in daily fantasy basketball. He has played well over his last nine starts, averaging 31 fantasy points in 30 minutes of playing time per game. His price is reasonable and he draws a terrific matchup against the Nuggets, who are inept at defending opposing big men.
Editor’s Note: Sullinger has been benched for showing up late to shootaround for a second time. Tyler Zeller will start. Sullinger is a riskier play with this news.
Brooklyn at Toronto – 7:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Toronto -7.5, 202 Over/Under
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Jack-Anderson-Johnson-Garnett-Plumlee
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-Vasquez-DeRozan-Johnson-Valanciunas
| Brooklyn | Toronto | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 202 |  | Vegas Total | 202 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.5 | Vegas Sprd | -7.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.3 | Team Proj. | 104.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.44 | Team Pace | 95.86 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jarrett Jack | Alan Anderson | Joe Johnson | Kevin Garnett | Mason Plumlee | Proj Starter | Kyle Lowry | Greivis Vasquez | DeMar DeRozan | Amir Johnson | Jonas Valanciunas | |
| Opp. Season | 19 | 7 | 22 | 7 | 12 | Opp. Season | 20 | 26 | 5 | 24 | 6 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 21 | 12 | 12 | 2 | 9 | Opp. Last 7 | 19 | 18 | 7 | 24 | 18 | |
Brooklyn
The Nets picked up an impressive win over the Clippers on Monday night, but have still lost seven of their last ten games. Tonight they head to Toronto to take on a Raptors team that has been terrific at home this season. The Nets are 7.5-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 202 points. This certainly isn’t the worst matchup on tonight’s schedule, but the Nets are a tough team to trust at this point of the season.
Opponent Breakdown (Toronto)
Record: 33-16
Points Allowed Per Game: 101 (Rank: 21)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 20
Rebounding Differential Rank: 16
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Brook Lopez (FD: $7000, DK: $6300 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 26.7)
Lopez is the strongest play on the Nets tonight. While he is still coming off the bench (for reasons unknown to us all), he has seen starter’s minutes recently. Over his last three games, he has averaged 43 fantasy points in 36 minutes of playing time per contest. One of those outings was against this same Raptors team. He dropped a 60-burger on them last week.
Joe Johnson (FD: $6200, DK: $5600 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 22.1)
If you are looking for a mid-range tournament play with good upside, Johnson could provide just that. He has played at least 37 minutes in each of his last three games and he has averaged 30.6 fantasy points per game during that stretch. He draws a decent matchup against the Raptors, who have been average against wing players this season.
Toronto
The Raptors have won seven of their last ten games and should stick to their winning ways tonight against the Nets. The team is projected to score 105 points tonight, which is right around their average for the season. The biggest issue that I have with the Raptors is that they have too many players that contribute on a regular basis. They have one of the best benches in the NBA that can take over a game at any time.
Opponent Breakdown (Brooklyn)
Record: 19-28
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.6 (Rank: 16)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 21
Rebounding Differential Rank: 24
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
DeMar DeRozan (FD: $7000, DK: $7000 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 27.9)
DeRozan’s price is slowly starting to creep up, but he still only needs to score 35 fantasy points to meet value expectations. That’s a feat that he has accomplished four times in his last six games. His minutes are inconsistent (because the bench can take over games), but Coach Dwayne Casey is not afraid to play him upwards of 40 minutes in close games.
Oklahoma City at New Orleans – 8:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – New Orleans -3, 196 Over/Under
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Roberson-Waiters-Ibaka-Adams
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Evans-Gordon-Cunningham-Davis-Asik
| Oklahoma City | New Orleans | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 196 |  | Vegas Total | 196 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.0 | Vegas Sprd | -3.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 96.5 | Team Proj. | 99.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.02 | Team Pace | 94.10 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Dion Waiters | Serge Ibaka | Steven Adams | Proj Starter | Tyreke Evans | Eric Gordon | Dante Cunningham | Anthony Davis | Omer Asik | |
| Opp. Season | 18 | 14 | 10 | 9 | 11 | Opp. Season | 24 | 11 | 16 | 21 | 4 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 28 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 11 | Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 19 | 23 | 26 | 27 | |
Oklahoma City
The Thunder will be without Kevin Durant again tonight, as he has already been ruled out with his injured toe. While I’m not saying I would play with an injured toe, I do miss the days when guys would play through the small injuries. Durant’s absence should provide a major fantasy boost to both Kevin Durant and Dion Waiters. Serge Ibaka may also see a small increase in usage, as Durant’s absence opens up plenty of shot attempts for rest of the Thunder.
Opponent Breakdown (New Orleans)
Record: 26-22
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.1 (Rank: 13)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 23
Rebounding Differential Rank: 3
Elite Plays
Russell Westbrook (FD: $11000, DK: $10600 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 36.5)
Westbrook messed around and got a triple-double the other night against the Magic. He finished the game with 25 points, 11 rebounds, and 14 assists. The Pelicans have really struggled to contain opposing point guards recently and they haven’t faced any with the talent of Mr. Westbrook. He is my top overall play at any position tonight. His usage rate should be through the roof again tonight with Kevin Durant out.
Dion Waiters (FD: $4800, DK: $4500 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 23.4)
Waiters will likely draw another start tonight with Kevin Durant out. In his start on Monday night, he played 41 minutes, scored 24 points, and grabbed 4 rebounds. He did sit in the corner a little more often than I liked to see, but he was much more aggressive in the second half. At his price point, he is one of the top value plays on the board. He should be able to reach and exceed value with ease tonight against the Pelicans.
Secondary Plays
Serge Ibaka (FD: $7100, DK: $7000 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 19.6)
Ibaka rarely scores more than 20 points, but his ability to rebound and block shots puts him in play tonight against the Pelicans. He will be tasked with defending Anthony Davis, but that may mean a few extra minutes thrown his way if he can stay out of foul trouble. Ibaka is coming off of a solid six-game stretch, where he averaged 33 fantasy points per contest.
New Orleans
The Pelicans should be riding high after ending the Hawks’ 19-game winning streak the other night. They have a chance to make it three wins in a row tonight against the visiting Thunder. Vegas has the Pelicans listed as 3-point favorites in a game that features a total of 196 points. On paper, this isn’t a great matchup to exploit, but the Thunder have made an effort to push the pace over the last month or so, which should help offset the tough matchup.
Opponent Breakdown (Oklahoma City)
Record: 24-24
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.3 (Rank: 10)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 10
Rebounding Differential Rank: 5
Elite Plays
Anthony Davis (FD: $11600, DK: $10800 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 26.8)
Davis is back to producing at a level similar to the very start of the season. He has averaged 51 fantasy points per game over his last six outings. While Serge Ibaka is known as an elite defender, the Thunder have struggled to contain power forwards this season. They have allowed the tenth-most fantasy points to the position. The only question is whether Davis can produce enough to pay off his expensive price tag.
Secondary Plays
Eric Gordon (FD: $6200, DK: $6400 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 18.8)
Gordon has become a reliable fantasy option ever since Jrue Holiday went down with his injury. He has scored at least 23 fantasy points in nine of his last ten games. His price has come up across the industry, but he is starting to provide the peripheral stats in addition to his ability to score points.