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NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, February 4th - Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-02-05 05:57:32

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Chicago at Houston – 8:00 PM EST

Chicago Houston
chicagonba Vegas Total 204 houstonnba Vegas Total 204
Vegas Sprd 2.5 Vegas Sprd -2.5
Team Proj. 100.75 Team Proj. 103.25
Team Pace 95.89 Team Pace 98.59
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Derrick Rose Kirk Hinrich Jimmy Butler Pau Gasol Joakim Noah Proj Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Donatas Motiejunas Joey Dorsey
Opp. Season 2 23 17 20 14 Opp. Season 16 3 21 26 16
Opp. Last 7 5 29 22 13 17 Opp. Last 7 18 22 4 29 3

Chicago

The Bulls head to Houston to face the Rockets in a game that could be played at a fairly brisk pace. Both teams are projected to score at least 100 points and Vegas has the Bulls listed as only 2.5-point underdogs. While the Rockets have been stout defensively this season, they are missing their anchor down low in Dwight Howard. They are a different team defensively without him manning the middle.

Opponent Breakdown (Houston)
Record: 33-15
Points Allowed Per Game: 99 (Rank: 12)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 3
Rebounding Differential Rank: 10

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

Pau Gasol (FD: $9500, DK: $9300 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 23.6)

There are three solid, but not must-plays on the Bulls tonight. The first is Pau Gasol. He has had a resurgent season, averaging 18 points, 12 rebounds, 3 assists, and 2 blocks per game. He has one of the highest floors of any power forward, but you are going to have to pay for it. His price is getting up there, which is why he is only a secondary play tonight against the Rockets.

Jimmy Butler (FD: $8500, DK: $7500 / MPG: 40 / Usage Rate: 21.3)

Butler may be a little too expensive to use on FanDuel, but he’s sitting at a very affordable $7,500 on DraftKings. Butler has scored at least 38 fantasy points in three of his last four games and will likely draw the matchup against James Harden.

Joakim Noah (FD: $7100, DK: $6400 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 14.1)

After seemingly falling off the face of the Earth, Noah has bounced back nicely over his last three games, averaging 12 points, 14 rebounds, and 7 assists per game. Granted, two of those games went into double-overtime, but at least he is back to being the Noah that we have come to expect over the years. He’s not a bad play at this price point.

Houston

The Rockets will be without Dwight Howard again tonight. James Harden, Donatas Motiejunas, Josh Smith, and Joey Dorsey all stand to benefit in his absence. The Rockets’ matchup against the Bulls is a decent one. The Bulls no longer possess a shut-down defense that we have to avoid taking players against. In fact, they have allowed the 12th-most points per game to their opponents this season.

Opponent Breakdown (Chicago)
Record: 30-19
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.9 (Rank: 19)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 12
Rebounding Differential Rank: 7

Elite Plays

Donatas Motiejunas (FD: $5800, DK: $5600 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 18.6)

Motiejunas is trying to join the club of reliable power forwards. David West, Dirk Nowitzki, and Pau Gasol are the founding members. Motiejunas has scored at least 23 fantasy points in nine of his last ten games. He has seen a nice boost with Dwight Howard out, averaging 29 fantasy points per game over his last four outings.

Secondary Plays

James Harden (FD: $10900, DK: $10800 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 31.3)

Harden is a secondary play tonight for two reasons: 1. There are other superstars that I would rather pay up for and 2. He draws a tough matchup against Jimmy Butler. The first time these two teams met up, Butler held him to 20 points, 2 rebounds, and 4 assists. That said, you can never count Harden out, especially in a game where Dwight Howard is inactive.

Trevor Ariza and Josh Smith are also secondary options tonight against the Bulls. Ariza is a better play for cash games, while Smith offers the upside that we look for in tournaments.

L.A. Lakers at Milwaukee – 8:00 PM EST

L.A. Lakers Milwaukee
lalakersnba Vegas Total 191 milwaukeenba Vegas Total 191
Vegas Sprd 8.50 Vegas Sprd -8.50
Team Proj. 91.25 Team Proj. 99.75
Team Pace 96.98 Team Pace 96.41
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Jordan Clarkson Wayne Ellington Ryan Kelly Tarik Black Robert Sacre Proj Starter Brandon Knight Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Jared Dudley John Henson
Opp. Season 1 9 25 10 17 Opp. Season 30 19 20 14 24
Opp. Last 7 7 15 2 1 21 Opp. Last 7 17 6 29 12 7

L.A. Lakers

While I understand that the Lakers have nothing to play for, their starting five is an absolute joke. You can make an argument that none of these five players would even make the roster of an average NBA team, let alone start. Even with their objectionable starting five, Vegas has the Lakers listed as only 8.5-point underdogs tonight against the Bucks. Jordan Hill is out for the next couple of weeks, but it’s hard to know who will be in line to pick up his minutes.

Opponent Breakdown (Milwaukee)
Record: 26-22
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.6 (Rank: 4)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 2
Rebounding Differential Rank: 20

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

Jordan Clarkson (FD: $4800, DK: $4800 / MPG: 16 / Usage Rate: 21.1)

Clarkson is the only Lakers’ player on my radar tonight. He has played very well over his last three starts, averaging 29 fantasy points in 38 minutes of playing time per game. His price has come a bit though and he does draw a tough matchup against Brandon Knight. Clarkson is a secondary option tonight against the Bucks.

Milwaukee

The Bucks will be without Larry Sanders, Ersan Ilyasova, Zaza Pachulia, and Kenyon Martin tonight. John Henson should play a big role in this one and it’s likely that the Bucks will be forced to play small ball for most of the game. Brandon Knight is probable for tonight’s game, which does hurt the appeal of Jerryd Bayless. In terms of the matchup, this is one of the best on tonight’s schedule. The Lakers are ranked 29th in both defensive efficiency and points allowed per game this season.

Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Lakers)
Record: 13-35
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.9 (Rank: 29)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 29
Rebounding Differential Rank: 21

Elite Plays

John Henson (FD: $5000, DK: $5000 / MPG: 17 / Usage Rate: 18.6)

I’ll make power forward easy for you tonight in cash games. Lock Henson in and move on. He has averaged close to 30 fantasy points per game over his last three starts, he is still under-priced across the industry, and he draws an elite matchup against the Lakers. Never pass up a sure thing in cash games.

Giannis Antetokounmpo (FD: $6200, DK: $5800 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 19.2)

The Greek Alphabet is one of the most versatile players in the NBA in that he can play all five positions on the floor if asked. He should see all of the minutes that he can handle tonight against one of the worst defenses in the NBA. His upside puts him in play for both cash games and tournaments.

Jared Dudley (FD: $4800, DK: $4500 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 14.3)

Dudley has made the most of his last three starts, averaging 28 fantasy points in 33 minutes of playing time per game. He should see another heavy dose of minutes tonight, as the Bucks will be without four of their frontcourt players. At his price point, he is a terrific option at small forward against the Lakers.

Khris Middleton and Brandon Knight are also elite plays tonight against the Lakers, but they come in as my fourth and fifth favorite Bucks. It may not be a bad idea to stack the Bucks tonight, but how many Bucks would a woodchuck pick if a woodchuck could pick Bucks?

Secondary Plays

None

Miami at Minnesota – 8:00 PM EST

Miami Minnesota
miaminba Vegas Total 188 minnesotanba Vegas Total 188
Vegas Sprd 2.5 Vegas Sprd -2.5
Team Proj. 93 Team Proj. 95.5
Team Pace 91.83 Team Pace 97.53
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Shabazz Napier Mario Chalmers Luol Deng Chris Bosh Hassan Whiteside Proj Starter Ricky Rubio Kevin Martin Andrew Wiggins Thaddeus Young Nikola Pekovic
Opp. Season 28 24 30 25 28 Opp. Season 12 5 3 3 8
Opp. Last 7 15 10 28 21 29 Opp. Last 7 13 28 10 11 6

Miami

The Heat did not play well last night in Detroit, but will look to bounce back tonight against the T-Wolves. On the season, the T-Wolves have allowed more points per game than any other team in the NBA. If you look at the DvP chart above, the T-Wolves are ranked 24th or worse against all five positions on the floor this season.

Opponent Breakdown (Minnesota)
Record: 8-40
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.7 (Rank: 30)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 30
Rebounding Differential Rank: 22

Elite Plays

Chris Bosh (FD: $7800, DK: $7800 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 29)

Bosh played well last night against the Pistons, as he has 34 points, 3 rebounds, and 2 assists. He’s not a great rebounder by any means, but his price is down and he should see an increase in usage with Dwyane Wade out again tonight. He’s a strong play on both FanDuel (power forward) and DraftKings (center).

Hassan Whiteside (FD: $7400, DK: $7700 / MPG: 19 / Usage Rate: 21.2)

Whiteside has more than half of the word ‘upside’ in his name. His ceiling is incredibly high and he has now scored at least 32 fantasy points in five straight games. On the season, he has averaged 1.30 fantasy points per minute and we have seen him handle up to 36 minutes of playing time. The hype is real, the only question is whether or not he can continue to produce at this level. He’ll certainly have the opportunity to do so tonight against the T-Wolves.

Secondary Plays

Mario Chalmers (FD: $5100, DK: $5500 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 19.3)

Chalmers has struggled in his last three games, which means the entire industry is going to overlook him tonight. By no means will I be using him in cash games, but I love the upside that he offers as a tournament play. He put up 36 fantasy points in as little as four games ago and may be able to break out of his mini-slump tonight against the T-Wolves.

Minnesota

The T-Wolves draw the dreaded matchup against the Miami Heat. The Heat are the slowest paced team in the NBA and they have held their opponents to the second-fewest points allowed per game. The T-Wolves are only projected to score 95 points tonight, which is one of the lowest team totals on the board.

Opponent Breakdown (Miami)
Record: 21-27
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.2 (Rank: 2)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 18
Rebounding Differential Rank: 26

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

Kevin Martin (FD: $6300, DK: $5500 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 27)

Martin has scored at least 24 fantasy points in each of his last four games. He is also coming off of a game where he played 39 minutes. He should see minutes in the high 30’s again tonight, making him a decent play at shooting guard.

Orlando at San Antonio – 8:30 PM EST

Orlando San Antonio
orlandonba Vegas Total 203 sanantonionba Vegas Total 203
Vegas Sprd 13.00 Vegas Sprd -13.00
Team Proj. 95 Team Proj. 108
Team Pace 96.21 Team Pace 95.55
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Elfrid Payton Victor Oladipo Aaron Gordon Tobias Harris Nikola Vucevic Proj Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard Tim Duncan Tiago Splitter
Opp. Season 9 1 1 22 20 Opp. Season 29 8 27 23 29
Opp. Last 7 16 13 17 30 28 Opp. Last 7 25 30 18 10 14

Orlando

The Magic have been the second-fastest paced team in the NBA over the last three weeks. It has helped the fantasy value of the Magic, as well as their opponents. Tonight they head to San Antonio to take on the Spurs in a game that could easily turn into a rout. The Magic are 13-point underdogs and are only projected to score 95 points.

Opponent Breakdown (San Antonio)
Record: 30-18
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.3 (Rank: 7)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 5
Rebounding Differential Rank: 11

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

Tobias Harris (FD: $5800, DK: $5600 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 23.9)

Harris is coming off of a solid outing against the Thunder, in which he posted 28 fantasy points in 41 minutes of action. Now that he is back in the starting lineup, we can expect his minutes to stay in the mid-30’s moving forward. His price is still depressed, which gives us at least one more opportunity to buy low on Harris.

San Antonio

I keep going back and forth on what to do about the Spurs tonight. On the one hand, they are facing a Magic team that plays at an extremely fast pace. The Spurs are projected to score 108 points tonight, which is great. On the other hand, they are double-digit favorites at home and we all know that Coach Popovich only plays his veterans as much as absolutely necessary. Like I said, I’m torn on this one.

Opponent Breakdown (Orlando)
Record: 15-36
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.1 (Rank: 24)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 26
Rebounding Differential Rank: 27

Elite Plays

Kawhi Leonard (FD: $8100, DK: $7700 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 22.7)

Even if Leonard plays only 30 minutes tonight, he could easily still be the highest scoring small forward. The matchup against the Magic is one of the best on the board, as they have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to small forwards this season. Leonard has also played well recently, scoring at least 36 fantasy points in five of his last eight games.

Secondary Plays

Tony Parker (FD: $5500, DK: $5000 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 24.9)

Parker is one of my favorite tournament plays tonight. His price is depressed, he will likely have a low level of ownership, and he draws a terrific matchup against the Magic. The Spurs are projected to score 108 points tonight and Parker will likely see around 30 minutes of playing time. He could really post a big outing against a team that has allowed the second-most fantasy points to point guards this season.

Memphis at Utah – 9:00 PM EST

Memphis Utah
memphisnba Vegas Total 190 utahnba Vegas Total 190
Vegas Sprd -6.5 Vegas Sprd 6.5
Team Proj. 98.3 Team Proj. 91.8
Team Pace 94.21 Team Pace 92.93
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Mike Conley Courtney Lee Jeff Green Zach Randolph Marc Gasol Proj Starter Dante Exum Joe Ingles Gordon Hayward Enes Kanter Derrick Favors
Opp. Season 15 20 11 15 2 Opp. Season 4 17 15 5 1
Opp. Last 7 30 5 9 5 2 Opp. Last 7 20 1 16 7 1

Memphis

This game has very little fantasy appeal. The Grizzlies and Jazz are both in the bottom ten in terms of pace of play. They are also both ranked in the top ten in points allowed per game. The total for the game is set at only 190 points and as you can see from the DvP chart above, there are a lot of red and yellow boxes.

Opponent Breakdown (Utah)
Record: 17-31
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.5 (Rank: 10)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 27
Rebounding Differential Rank: 2

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

Marc Gasol (FD: $8300, DK: $8000 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 24.9)

Center is a position that is lacking tonight, which brings Gasol into the equation. He is one of the few players in the NBA that truly does everything on the floor well. He has scored at least 33 fantasy points in eight of his last ten games and is about as matchup-proof as you will find at the position.

Utah

There is very little to like about the Jazz tonight. They are facing a Grizzlies team that is ranked 1st in points allowed per game. They are also playing the tail end of a back-to-back. The Jazz are only projected to score 92 points in this one. We can safely avoid the Jazz players in all league formats tonight.

Opponent Breakdown (Memphis)
Record: 36-12
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.1 (Rank: 1)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 9
Rebounding Differential Rank: 14

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

None

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious