NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, February 5th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace
L.A.Lakers at Cleveland
- Vegas Line – Cleveland -7, Over/Under 208
- L.A.Lakers Proj. Starters – Nash-Blake-Young-Kelly-Sacre
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Miles-Deng-Thompson-Varejao
L.A.Lakers
We have a huge Wednesday night in the industry. DraftStreet is having their Big Score contest in which they are giving away $50,000 to first place. Not only that, but both FanDuel and DraftKings have their usual large field GPP’s. With 12 games on the schedule, I will try to keep the team analysis short and sweet and focus more on the picks.
The Lakers are playing in the second half of a back to back after losing to the Wolves last night. The good news is that the Cavs have been playing almost as bad as the Lakers. This game is expected to be high scoring and it’s hard for me to see the Cavs blowing the Lakers out. That said, viable fantasy options are hard to come by on the Lakers right now. With Nash, Farmar, and Blake back in the mix, it’s really going to be hard to predict the minutes for Young, Johnson, Marhsall, and Harris. Jodie Meeks will not play tonight after spraining his ankle last night, but there are still too many guards fighting for minutes.
- Robert Sacre – Sacre is close to minimum salary across the board and makes a nice punt option at Center tonight. He played well in his start last night and should see a decent number of minutes again tonight.
- Ryan Kelly – Kelly is one of my favorite sleeper picks tonight. With Jordan Hill questionable at best to play tonight’s game and Pau Gasol not even with the team, there are plenty of minutes open for Kelly. The matchup lines up well as Thompson isn’t a great perimeter defender.
Cleveland
The Cavs have a terrific matchup tonight against the Lakers. If this were a night with only a few games, I would probably recommend taking 3-4 Cavs in your lineup. The Lakers are one of the fastest paced teams in the league and are ranked 25th or worse at defending all positions on the floor. All five starters have fantasy value in this favorable matchup. Anderson Varejao has great upside and this could be one of his 20/20 games. Luol Deng also looks like a nice play, the Cavs have really made a concerted effort to get him more involved offensively.
- Kyrie Irving – Kyrie has played well at home all season long. In fact, he has some of the best home splits in the NBA compared to those of his on the road. The Lakers do not have anyone that can stay in front of Kyrie and tonight is the night to pay up for him.
- Tristan Thompson – Thompson had a rough 3 game stretch and his price across the industry is really depressed right now. He is under $10k on both DS and SS and under $6k on both FD and DK. The Lakers have given up more fantasy points than any other team in the league to opposing PF’s.
Boston at Philadelphia
- Vegas Line – Boston -2, 203.5 Over/Under
- Boston Proj. Starters – Rondo-Bradley-Green-Sullinger-Bass
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Anderson-Turner-Young-Hawes
Boston
The Celtics also have a very favorable matchup tonight. The two best teams to target each night are the two teams that are facing the Lakers and the Sixers. The Sixers are the league’s fastest paced team and own the league’s worst defense. In terms of fantasy points allowed, the Sixers are ranked dead last or second to last against all five positions on the floor. Just like the Cavs, there are quite a few plays on the Celtics tonight. Jared Sullinger put up 24 points and 17 rebounds the other night against this same team.
- Rajon Rondo – Rondo is finally playing 30+ minutes which was sort of my benchmark for when I would start to consider him for cash games. He has a terrific matchup against the Sixers and his price is still cheap across the industry. After tonight’s game, his salary is likely to increase quite a bit.
- Jeff Green – Green has a depressed salary on most sites tonight (specially on DS where he is less than $10k). He typically plays at least 35 minutes in close games and we have seen the type of upside that he has when he is aggressive offensively.
Philadelphia
The Sixers face a Celtics team that only averages 95 possessions per game which is below the league average. While I don’t expect that to play a huge factor here, the Sixers will likely see a few less possessions that their season average. The Celtics have been very average defensively. They are ranked 12th or worse against all five positions over the last 15 days in terms of fantasy points allowed. I’m not too high on Michael Carter-Williams tonight, when Tony Wroten is in the lineup, it really hurts his fantasy production.
- Thaddeus Young – Young is one of the few players in the league that plays better on the road. He’s averaging well over 30 FP’s per game on the road this season and he has a nice matchup against the C’s tonight. Young has led the league in steals this month which is just an added bonus in terms of fantasy production.
San Antonio at Washington
- Vegas Line – Washington -1, 194.5 Over/Under
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Mills-Green-Diaw-Duncan
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Ariza-Hilario-Gortat
San Antonio
The Spurs and Wizards are both right at the league average in terms of possessions per game. Both average right around 96 possessions. The total of this game is set at 194 points which is also around the average. The Wizards have been very consistent defensively this season. They have defended SG’s, PF’s, and Centers well and have struggled to defend PG’s and SF’s. I don’t love the matchup for Tim Duncan against the dominant bigs of the Wizards.
- Tony Parker – Parker has really played well over the last three games. With Leonard and Ginboli both out, he has been asked to be more aggressive offensively. He has scored at least 18 points and recorded at least 6 assists in each of his last 3 games. The Wizards are ranked dead last against PG’s over the last 15 days and Parker is in a very favorable position tonight.
Washington
The Wizards have five viable fantasy options on their team. This can be good when they are facing a fast-paced team, but it hurts their individual fantasy values when they face a tough defense like the Spurs. The Spurs are ranked 8th or better in terms of fantasy points allowed to SG’s, SF’s, and PF’s.
- John Wall – Wall is in play though, Parker hasn’t been great defensively this season and Wall has been one of the best fantasy options at home this season. He is averaging more than 40 FP’s per game at home this season and he should continue to play well tonight.
Portland at New York
- Vegas Line – Portland -2, 207.5 Over/Under
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez
- New York Proj. Starters – Felton-Prigioni-Smith-Anthony-Chandler
Portland
The Blazers and Knicks total is set at 207 points which is extremely high for a Knicks game. If you were to just look at the Knicks’ pace of play on the season, this game would not stand out. But the Knicks have either scored over 100 points or allowed over 100 points in each of their last 11 games. They are really starting to push the pace which bodes well for both teams tonight.
- Damian Lillard – The Knicks have been solid against PG’s this season, but Lillard has finally busted out of his slump and has posted over 40 FP’s in back to back games. I think he continues his stellar play tonight against Felton and the Knicks.
- LaMarcus Aldridge – The Knicks would probably like to start Kenyon Martin at the 4 to match up with Aldridge, but Martin missed Monday’s game and is questionable at best for tonight’s game. Aldridge will have a major advantage down low over whoever is guarding him tonight.
New York
The Knicks have a nice matchup tonight against the uptempo Blazers. The Blazers are ranked 3rd at defending the PF position, but they have really struggled against the other four positions on the floor. Raymond Felton has a nice matchup, Tyson Chandler offers a great value on most sites, and J.R. Smith makes a nice GPP play in some of these larger tournaments.
- Carmelo Anthony – It will be interesting to see if Melo starts at the 4 tonight. I doubt that will be the case, but if so, there is going to be a mismatch on both ends of the floor. Melo will likely end up being defended by Batum for most of this game, but he hasn’t been that shut down defender that most people think he is.
Phoenix at Houston
- Vegas Line – Houston -7.5, Over/Under 213
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Dragic-Green-Tucker-Frye-Plumlee
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Parsons-Jones-Howard
Phoenix
This game features the highest total of the night. Both of these teams love to push the pace (both teams average close to 98 possessions per game). There should be plenty of fantasy points to go around in this game. The only reliable fantasy option on the Suns has been Goran Dragic. While he will be locked up in a tough matchup against Patrick Beverley, I still think he is in play. If the Suns push the pace, the Rockets’ defensive inefficiencies will show up in transition. The rest of the Suns players serve as better GPP options than cash game plays.
Houston
The Rockets are facing a Suns defense that has been surprisingly stout down low. Over the last 15 days, the Suns are ranked 6th and 1st in terms of fantasy points allowed to PF’s and Centers. Dwight Howard matchup against Miles Plumlee seems like a favorable one, but there are other options that I like in his price range better. Chandler Parsons has a decent matchup tonight, but he’s been very inconsistent over the last two weeks.
- James Harden – Harden is one of my favorite tournament plays tonight and makes a great cash game play on a couple of sites (DS specifically). We all know what Harden brings to the table. He is at his best when he gets the ball in the open floor and he can attack the rim. I’m expecting a monster performance out of him tonight.