NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, February 5th - Page 2
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Dallas at Memphis
- Vegas Line – Memphis -3.5, 189 Over/Under
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Calderon-Ellis-Marion-Nowitzki-Dalembert
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Calathes-Lee-Prince-Randolph-Gasol
Dallas
The Mavericks take on a very tough defensive team tonight in the Grizzlies. The Grizzlies have held opponents to 90 points or less in each of their last 7 games. At this point, I tend to avoid all players from the team facing the Grizzlies. If you look at their DvP rankings, you will see nothing but unfavorable matchups. I will be avoiding all Mavericks tonight. One injury note to mention: Shawn Marion is expected to play which ends the run for Jae Crowder as a value play.
Memphis
The Grizzlies have a pretty decent matchup tonight. They will be without Mike Conley and Tony Allen once again so look for both Nick Calathes and Courtney Lee to continue to see major minutes. Both makes great value plays tonight. Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol are also both in play tonight. The Mavericks are ranked 18th and 16th against PF’s and Centers.
Atlanta at New Orleans
- Vegas Line – *New Orleans -3, Over/Under 200
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Ayon
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Roberts-Gordon-Aminu-Davis-Ajinca
Atlanta
The Hawks are playing in the second half of a back to back tonight. This is expected to be a close game that is fairly high scoring. Neither of these teams have a shut down defense and neither of them mind to get into a fast paced game. The Pelicans have defended SF’s well this season, but have struggled against the other 4 positions. Paul Millsap has been playing well, but I don’t love his upside in a matchup against Anthony Davis.
- Jeff Teague – Since coming back from injury, Teague has scored 27, 41, and 21 fantasy points in his 3 games. He has a great matchup against the Pelicans who have given up the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing PG’s over the last 15 days.
New Orleans
The Pelicans are 3 point favorites tonight. They have a favorable matchup against this Hawks defense that is ranked 13th or worse against all five positions. There are a few viable plays on the Pelicans tonight. Eric Gordon is averaging over 25 fantasy points at home, Al-Farouq Aminu makes an interesting GPP play, and Tyreke Evans is flying under the radar as a tournament play.
- Anthony Davis – Davis has topped 50 fantasy points in 5 of his last 8 games and has a great chance to hit that mark again tonight. He is the only player in the league that averages close to 10 fantasy points per game on blocks and steals alone. I love his matchup against the under-sized Millsap and think that he keeps up his high level of production tonight.
Minnesota at Oklahoma City
- Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -10, Over/Under 203
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Brewer-Love-Turiaf
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Jackson-Sefolosha-Durant-Ibaka-Perkins
Minnesota
The Wolves come into tonight’s game as 10 point underdogs. Even though they are going to be without Nikola Pekovic and Corey Brewer, I have a hard time seeing this game turn into a blowout. The Wolves should be able to keep this game close and starters from both teams should see their usual allotment of minutes. Kevin Martin is coming off of a huge game last night and I think he keeps it going tonight. He could pick up a few extra minutes with Brewer out.
- Kevin Love – Love has faced this Thunder team 3 times already this season and is averaging 23 points, 13 rebounds, and 3 assists per game in those contests. While those aren’t typical Love-type numbers, he should be able to top those with Pekovic out of the lineup. I think this could be one of Love’s classic 30/20 games.
- Ricky Rubio – Rubio’s minutes have been down over the past couple of weeks. Part of that is from a couple of blowouts, but part of that has also been Adelman’s insistence on playing J.J. Barea late into the 4th quarter. While this does concern me a bit for tonight’s game, Rubio’s fantasy production is directly tied to his steals and Reggie Jackson has been extremely turnover prone this season.
Oklahoma City
The Thunder have a nice matchup tonight. The only position that the Wolves defend well is the Center position. Even without Pekovic in the lineup, Turiaf has stepped up and played some great defense. Not that it really matters in this matchup though as Kendrick Perkins is never a great fantasy option. Serge Ibaka has really been playing well of late and should be in for another nice outing tonight. Reggie Jackson is also in play, Ricky Rubio has never been known as a great defender.
- Kevin Durant – Durant should be considered the top overall fantasy option tonight. I could quote numbers all day long, but we all know the high level that Durant is playing at. With all of the great value plays on the board tonight, you can afford to put him in your cash lineups.
Detroit at Orlando
- Vegas Line – Detroit -2.5, 200.5 Over/Under
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Caldwell-Pope-Smith-Monroe-Drummond
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Nelson-Oladipo-Afflalo-Davis-Vucevic
Detroit
The Pistons and Magic both average at least 96 possessions per game which is right around the league average. This game is expected to be close and expected to be fairly high scoring. If you look at the Magic’s DvP rankings, you will see a lot of blue and green rankings. There are a few favorable matchups that we can exploit tonight. Josh Smith is one of my top GPP plays, but his inconsistent play makes it hard for us to trust him in cash games. Greg Monroe is often under-owned, but I really like his matchup against the much smaller Glen Davis.
- Brandon Jennings – Jennings has a nice matchup against Nelson and Co. tonight. He put up 35 fantasy points in their last meeting and he should be able to post similar numbers tonight. The Magic have been below average at defending PG’s all season long.
- Andre Drummond – Drummond is finally becoming a consistent fantasy option. Even in his last game where he got into early foul trouble, he played smart in the second half and ended up with 30+ fantasy points. I like the matchup for him tonight against Vucevic and think he makes a great play at Center. His price on FD and DK is very affordable.
Orlando
The Magic are 2.5 point underdogs tonight against the Pistons, but the good news is that they are playing at home. The Magic have been a dumpster fire on the road this season. With this game expected to stay close, this is one of my favorite games to target. While the total may not be as high as some of the other games, it should definitely be played at a fast-pace. Jameer Nelson is expected to make his return to the lineup which likely means either Tobias Harris or Victor Oladipo will be coming off the bench.
- Nikola Vucevic – Vucevic’s matchup against Drummond may not seem like a great one, but the Pistons have allowed the 8th most fantasy points in the league to opposing Centers this season. Vucevic has scored over 25 FP’s in each of his last 4 games and should be able to crack the 30 point mark tonight.
- Arron Afflalo – Afflalo is flying under the radar tonight. Not only will he be under-owned, but he has a favorable matchup as well. I like Afflalo a bit more if Oladipo starts at SG, but I think he makes a solid play either way.
Milwaukee at Denver
- Vegas Line – Denver -12.5, 208 Over/Under
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Wolters-Middleton-Ilyasova-Sanders
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Foye-Chandler-Faried-Hickson
Milwaukee
The Bucks are 12.5 point underdogs tonight against the Nuggets. While the matchup against the uptempo Nuggets is a favorable one, the potential blowout is too great for me to trust any Bucks in my cash games. Not to mention the Larry Drew factor. John Henson should be available to play tonight, but he is a GPP play at best. The same goes for Brandon Knight, Larry Sanders, and Ersan Ilyasova.
Denver
The Nuggets are big favorites tonight, but they do have a favorable matchup. The Bucks could keep this game close, but they could also get blown out and this game could be over after 3 quarters. In my eyes, the risk is too great to trust anyone from this game in cash games. There are so many other options tonight that are less risky and have just as good of matchups. I’ll likely be using a little bit of Wilson Chandler and J.J. Hickson in GPP’s, but other than that, I’m avoiding the Nuggets.