NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, January 21st
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
Utah at Cleveland – 7:00 pm EST
- Vegas Line – Cleveland -9, 198.5 Over/Under
- Utah Proj. Starters – Burke-Ingles-Hayward-Favors-Kanter
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Smith-James-Love-Mozgov
| Utah | Cleveland | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 198.5 |  | Vegas Total | 198.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 9.0 | Vegas Sprd | -9.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 94.8 | Team Proj. | 103.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 92.82 | Team Pace | 94.52 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Trey Burke | Joe Ingles | Gordon Hayward | Derrick Favors | Enes Kanter | Proj Starter | Kyrie Irving | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Timofey Mozgov | |
| Opp. Season | 15 | 27 | 27 | 21 | 9 | Opp. Season | 9 | 21 | 10 | 15 | 2 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 15 | 25 | Opp. Last 7 | 5 | 24 | 16 | 10 | 19 | |
Utah
The Jazz are only 7-15 on the road this season and run into the Cavaliers at the worst possible time. The Cavs have won three straight and are listed as nine-point favorites in tonight’s game. While the matchup appears favorable on paper, the Jazz should only be sprinkled in lineups here and there. We have a 12-game slate with plenty of other options tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Cleveland)
Record: 22-20
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.5
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 27
Rebounding Differential Rank: 14
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Trey Burke (FD: $6000, DK: $5600 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 21.8)
Burke has finally started to show a level of consistency that we haven’t seen out of him in the past. Ever since Alec Burks went down with his injury, Burke has really taken over as the primary playmaker in this offense. Over his last nine games, he has averaged 30 fantasy points in 36 minutes of action per game. During that stretch, he has scored at least 23 fantasy points in every single game. He will likely fly under the radar tonight, but he provides both a high-floor and a high-ceiling against the Cavs.
Cleveland
All is right with the world in Cleveland. LeBron James looks as healthy as he has all season and they have now won three straight games. They have a great chance to win their fourth consecutive game tonight against the Jazz at home. While the Jazz do play at a very slow pace, they are ranked 26th in defensive efficiency. Kyrie Irving and LeBron James are both expected to play through flu-like symptoms tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Utah)
Record: 14-27
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.9
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 26
Rebounding Differential Rank: 3
Elite Plays
LeBron James (FD: $10700, DK: $10700 / MPG: 38 / Usage Rate: 31.5)
Since returning from injury, James has averaged 46 fantasy points per game. James himself admitted that this is the best he has felt all season. He is dealing with flu-like symptoms, but that shouldn’t affect him tonight against the Jazz. When James is locked in, he is one of the most productive players in all of fantasy basketball. This may be the last time that we are able to target him at a price under $11,000.
Secondary Plays
J.R. Smith (FD: $5900, DK: $4900 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 22.2)
Once again, Smith offers great value on DraftKings, where he is listed at a bargain price of only $4,900. He has really fit in well with the Cavaliers (even though he plays a lot like Dion Waiters). Over his last six games with his new team, he is averaging 26 fantasy points in 35 minutes of action per game. He should be able to reach value on DraftKings with ease tonight.
New York at Philadelphia – 7:00 pm EST
- Vegas Line – Philadelphia -1, 191 Over/Under
- New York Proj. Starters – Calderon-Galloway-Anthony-Smith-Amundson
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-McDaniels-Covington-Noel-Sims
| New York | Philadelphia | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 191 |  | Vegas Total | 191 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 1.0 | Vegas Sprd | -1.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.0 | Team Proj. | 96.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 92.63 | Team Pace | 98.72 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jose Calderon | Langston Galloway | Carmelo Anthony | Jason Smith | Louis Amundson | Proj Starter | Michael Carter-Williams | K.J. McDaniels | Robert Covington | Nerlens Noel | Henry Sims | |
| Opp. Season | 24 | 30 | 26 | 30 | 30 | Opp. Season | 23 | 29 | 4 | 4 | 20 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 24 | 17 | 15 | 11 | 29 | Opp. Last 7 | 30 | 21 | 19 | 1 | 20 | |
New York
The Knicks ended their 16-game losing streak with a win over the Pelicans. It would have been an impressive win if it weren’t for the fact that the Pelicans were missing both Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday. Either way, the monkey is finally off their back. Now they turn their attention to the Sixers in a battle between two of the worst teams in the NBA. Vegas is expecting a close game, but you can never really predict what will happen when two awful teams get together.
Opponent Breakdown (Philadelphia)
Record: 8-33
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.8
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 13
Rebounding Differential Rank: 30
Elite Plays
Langston Galloway (FD: $4000, DK: $3600 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 24)
Galloway has already made an impact on the Knicks in his short stint with the team. He drew the start at shooting guard on Wednesday against the Pelicans. The Knicks were finally able to end their 16-game losing streak. Galloway played a big role in that game, finishing with 21 points, 5 rebounds, and 3 assists. It sounds like the Knicks will roll out the same starting lineup tonight, making Galloway one of the best values available at any position.
Secondary Plays
Carmelo Anthony (FD: $9400, DK: $8800 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 31.9)
Anthony is priced a little too high for my liking, but he certainly deserves consideration tonight against the Sixers. Not only have they allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to small forwards this season, but this is finally a game where we don’t have to worry about the Knicks getting blown out. Anthony has 50 fantasy point upside every time he takes the floor and should be targeted in tournaments tonight.
Philadelphia
The Sixers are only 8-33 on the season, but they have won four of their last ten games. Both of these teams are terrible, but someone will walk away with a win tonight. The Sixers are one-point favorites tonight in a game that features a total of 191 points. For the first time in a while, we don’t have to factor in a potential blowout with the Sixers. Tony Wroten is expected to miss another game with his knee injury.
Opponent Breakdown (New York)
Record: 6-36
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.5
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 29
Rebounding Differential Rank: 29
Elite Plays
Michael Carter-Williams (FD: $8200, DK: $8400 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 27.9)
With Tony Wroten out, MCW’s usage rate will continue to trend upward. He is a ball-dominant guard that is typically either taking the shot or the one that is passing to the player taking the shot. He also has a unique ability to fill up all areas of the stat sheet. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against Jose Calderon and the Knicks, who have allowed the 8th most fantasy points to point guards this season.
Secondary Plays
Nerlens Noel (FD: $5800, DK: $5300 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 16.2)
Noel is no longer in the sub-5k range, but he’s still an affordable option at small forward. He has played well recently, averaging 28 fantasy points in 31 minutes of action over his last eight games. While the Knicks have been stingy against power forwards this season, I’m not exactly scared of his matchup against Jason Smith and Louis Amundson.
Editor’s Note: Noel has been ruled out for tonight’s game.
Miami at Charlotte – 7:00 pm EST
- Vegas Line – Charlotte -6, 184.5 Over/Under
- Miami Proj. Starters – Chalmers-Wade-Granger-Bosh-Andersen
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-Zeller-Biyombo
| Miami | Charlotte | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 184.5 |  | Vegas Total | 184.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 6.0 | Vegas Sprd | -6.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 89.25 | Team Proj. | 95.25 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 91.63 | Team Pace | 95.18 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Mario Chalmers | Dwyane Wade | Danny Granger | Chris Bosh | Chris Andersen | Proj Starter | Kemba Walker | Gerald Henderson | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Cody Zeller | Bismack Biyombo | |
| Opp. Season | 11 | 17 | 2 | 12 | 8 | Opp. Season | 12 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 12 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 2 | 15 | 1 | 19 | 15 | Opp. Last 7 | 9 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | |
Miami
This is a game that we may want to skip over tonight. The Heat travel to Charlotte to take on the Hornets in a game that features an extremely low total of only 184.5 points. The Heat are projected to score 89 points tonight, which isn’t an appealing team total. The one factor that may open up a couple of fantasy options for the Heat is injuries. Luol Deng and Hassan Whiteside have both been ruled out of this game, which opens the door for a couple of value plays.
Opponent Breakdown (Charlotte)
Record: 17-25
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.8
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 10
Rebounding Differential Rank: 12
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Danny Granger and Chris Andersen may crack the starting lineup in place of Luol Deng and Hassan Whiteside. Both are worth a look as punt plays against the Hornets tonight.
Charlotte
The Hornets may be my least favorite team to target in DFS tonight. Not only do they draw a tough matchup against the Heat, but they will be at full-strength tonight as both Kemba Walker (starting) and Al Jefferson (off the bench) are expected to play. The Heat are the slowest paced team in the entire NBA and are ranked 12th or better in fantasy points allowed to all five positions on the floor. MOVING ON!
Opponent Breakdown (Miami)
Record: 18-23
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.1
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 23
Rebounding Differential Rank: 26
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Indiana at Atlanta – 7:30 pm EST
- Vegas Line – Atlanta -10.5, 196 Over/Under
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Watson-Stuckey-Hill-West-Hibbert
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Horford
| Indiana | Atlanta | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 196 |  | Vegas Total | 196 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 10.5 | Vegas Sprd | -10.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 92.8 | Team Proj. | 103.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.62 | Team Pace | 96.15 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | C.J. Watson | Rodney Stuckey | Solomon Hill | David West | Roy Hibbert | Proj Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | DeMarre Carroll | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | |
| Opp. Season | 10 | 13 | 17 | 10 | 6 | Opp. Season | 16 | 28 | 6 | 1 | 7 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 19 | 5 | 22 | 3 | 3 | Opp. Last 7 | 23 | 20 | 7 | 9 | 13 | |
Indiana
I’ve sent out a memo, but the Pacers must not have read it. In daily fantasy basketball, we like to target fast-paced, high-scoring games. The Pacers rarely oblige, as they are one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA. Tonight they head to Atlanta to take on the best team in the Eastern Conference. The Pacers are double-digit underdogs in a game has a low total of only 196 points. The Hawks have been stout defensively, which limits the appeal of the Pacers tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Atlanta)
Record: 34-8
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.3
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 6
Rebounding Differential Rank: 21
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Atlanta
The Hawks have won 13 in a row and have extended their lead of first place in the Eastern Conference to five games. They draw an easy matchup tonight against the Pacers at home. While a win is likely in store for the Hawks, there aren’t any fantasy options that really stand out in this matchup. The Pacers are one of the slowest paced teams in the league and have held their opponents to an average of only 97 points per game.
Opponent Breakdown (Indiana)
Record: 15-28
Points Allowed Per Game: 97
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 7
Rebounding Differential Rank: 5
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Jeff Teague and Al Horford are the preferred options of the bunch, but aren’t must plays with all of the other options at point guard and center.
Orlando at Detroit – 7:30 pm EST
- Vegas Line – Detroit -8.5, 209 Over/Under
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Payton-Oladipo-Marble-Frye-Vucevic
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Caldwell-Pope-Singer-Monroe-Drummond
| Orlando | Detroit | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 209.0 |  | Vegas Total | 209.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 8.5 | Vegas Sprd | -8.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.25 | Team Proj. | 108.75 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.81 | Team Pace | 95.73 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Elfrid Payton | Victor Oladipo | Devyn Marble | Channing Frye | Nikola Vucevic | Proj Starter | Brandon Jennings | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Kyle Singler | Greg Monroe | Andre Drummond | |
| Opp. Season | 6 | 11 | 24 | 29 | 24 | Opp. Season | 26 | 4 | 28 | 23 | 28 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 23 | 24 | Opp. Last 7 | 18 | 23 | 29 | 21 | 27 | |
Orlando
I had to do a double-take when I saw the total for this game. Vegas is expecting a very high-scoring game between two teams that are not known as offensive powerhouses. Both teams play at an average pace, yet the total for the game is set at 209 points. If the game is as high-scoring as expected, it could provide a multitude of fantasy options. Tobias Harris is questionable for tonight’s game. If he is forced to sit, give a fantasy boost to Nikola Vucevic, Victor Oladipo, and Channing Frye.
Opponent Breakdown (Detroit)
Record: 16-26
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.4
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Rebounding Differential Rank: 13
Elite Plays
Nikola Vucevic (FD: $8700, DK: $8700 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 25.2)
Vucevic is an elite play if Tobias Harris is forced out of tonight’s game, as his usage rate goes up drastically with Harris off of the floor. Vucevic has scored at least 50 fantasy points in three of his last five games, all without Harris in the lineup. He draws an extremely favorable matchup against the Pistons, who have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to centers this season. If Harris does happen to be in the lineup tonight, bump Vucevic down to a secondary play.
Secondary Plays
Elfrid Payton (FD: $5900, DK: $5400 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 18.5)
Payton is playing his best basketball as a pro. Over his last four games, he is averaging 35 fantasy points in 35 minutes of action per game. He is a player that can fill up all areas of the stat sheet and he offers great value at a price under $6,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. As mentioned above, tonight’s game against the Pistons has one of the highest totals on the board and a matchup against Brandon Jennings is not one that we need to go out of our way to avoid.
Detroit
The Pistons find themselves in one of the superior fantasy matchups on tonight’s schedule. The Magic are ranked 21st in defensive efficiency this season, allowing an average of 100.7 points per game. The Pistons are projected to score 109 points tonight, which is 11 points higher than their season average. Let me say that again: the Pistons are projected to score 11 more points than their season average tonight. Brandon Jennings is not listed below as an elite play, but he provides a very high ceiling against the Magic. He will have a low percentage of ownership and could be a difference maker in tournaments.
Opponent Breakdown (Orlando)
Record: 15-29
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.7
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 21
Rebounding Differential Rank: 27
Elite Plays
Greg Monroe (FD: $8300, DK: $8100 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 23.7)
Monroe is playing the basketball of his season, and perhaps of his career. In fact, he has actually outplayed his frontcourt partner Andre Drummond recently. Over his last nine games, Monroe has averaged 17 points, 13 rebounds, and 3 assists per game. It’s one thing to put up those type of numbers over a three-game stretch, but he has done it over an extended period of time, proving that is hasn’t been a fluke. Monroe draws a terrific matchup against the Magic, who are ranked 27th in rebounding differential this season.
Secondary Plays
Brandon Jennings (FD: $7900, DK: $7900 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 25.1)
Jennings is not the type of player that I like to target in cash games. While he does provide a high ceiling, he also has a very low floor. Those type of players are best suited as tournament plays, which is why Jennings is listed as a secondary option tonight. He draws a terrific matchup against the Magic, who have allowed the 5th most fantasy points to point guards this season. Use Jennings as a high-risk, high-reward play in tournaments tonight.