NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, January 21st - Page Three
Brooklyn at Sacramento – 10:00 pm EST
- Vegas Line – Sacramento -5.5, 197 Over/Under
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Jack-Johnson-Bogdanovic-Garnett-Plumlee
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – Collison-McLemore-Gay-Thompson-Cousins
| Brooklyn | Sacramento | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 197 |  | Vegas Total | 197 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.5 | Vegas Sprd | -5.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.75 | Team Proj. | 101.25 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.18 | Team Pace | 96.97 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jarrett Jack | Joe Johnson | Bojan Bogdanovic | Kevin Garnett | Mason Plumlee | Proj Starter | Darren Collison | Ben McLemore | Rudy Gay | Jason Thompson | DeMarcus Cousins | |
| Opp. Season | 22 | 25 | 9 | 20 | 25 | Opp. Season | 18 | 23 | 5 | 24 | 5 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 11 | 22 | 26 | 13 | 14 | Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 18 | 2 | 30 | 12 | |
Brooklyn
The Nets haven’t really been on our radar over the last couple of weeks. They are a deep team that is pretty average both offensively and defensively. Tonight they head to Sacramento to take on the Kings. The Nets are 5.5-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 197 points. There is really only one option that stands out in this one.
Opponent Breakdown (Sacramento)
Record: 16-25
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.8
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 24
Rebounding Differential Rank: 1
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Jarrett Jack (FD: $6800, DK: $6300 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 21.3)
Jack has been a streaky player this season. Luckily, he has averaged over 40 fantasy points per game over his last two. With Deron Williams still sidelined, Jack will continue to run the show for the Nets. With all of the other options at point guard, he’s not going to be a very highly owned player. He could be an interesting contrarian play against the Kings, who have allowed the 9th most fantasy points to point guards this season.
Sacramento
The Kings are expected to be at full-strength tonight with Rudy Gay and DeMarcus Cousins both listed as probable. They draw a mediocre matchup against the Nets, who have held their opponents to 97.8 points per game this season. Much like the Nets, there is only one fantasy option that stands out tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Brooklyn)
Record: 17-24
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.8
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 13
Rebounding Differential Rank: 23
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
DeMarcus Cousins (FD: $11200, DK: $11100 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 33.8)
Cousins is a threat to put up 60 fantasy points every time he takes the floor. The Nets don’t have anyone that is going to be able to match up with him down low. While I’m expecting another solid outing from him tonight, the wealth of options at center makes him a secondary option at best. Plus, he is more than $11,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Houston at Golden State – 10:30 pm EST
- Vegas Line – Golden State -7.5, 217.5 Over/Under
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Ariza-Motiejunas-Howard
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Bogut
| Houston | Golden State | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 217.5 |  | Vegas Total | 217.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.50 | Vegas Sprd | -7.50 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 105 | Team Proj. | 112.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.3 | Team Pace | 100.82 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Patrick Beverley | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Donatas Motiejunas | Dwight Howard | Proj Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Andrew Bogut | |
| Opp. Season | 13 | 8 | 8 | 17 | 18 | Opp. Season | 2 | 20 | 16 | 18 | 13 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 12 | 3 | 18 | 28 | 8 | Opp. Last 7 | 29 | 30 | 21 | 17 | 16 | |
Houston
The Rockets were run off their home floor by the Warriors on Saturday night. Now they have to face them in Oakland. Vegas has the Rockets listed as 7.5-point underdogs in this one. While the total for the game is set at 217 points, the Warriors have been the best defensive team in the NBA this season. I’ll trust the defensive statistics over the high total and will be treading lightly with the Rockets tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Golden State)
Record: 33-6
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.6
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 1
Rebounding Differential Rank: 16
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Donatas Motiejunas (FD: $5600, DK: $5500 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 18.3)
Motiejunas continues to fly under the radar, despite being one of the most consistent fantasy options over the last couple of weeks. Over his last ten games, he has averaged 26 fantasy points in 31 minutes of action per game. During that stretch, he has scored at least 21 fantasy points nine times. His matchup against the Warriors isn’t ideal, but Motiejunas provides a high-floor for a player at his price point.
Golden State
The Warriors put up 131 points on the Rockets on Saturday night, which was a bit surprising considering the fact that the Rockets are ranked second in defensive efficiency this season. Again, this game has a high total, but both of these teams are stout on the defensive side of the floor. I’m not going to get sucked into the high total. Only time will tell if that strategy pays off tonight or not.
Opponent Breakdown (Houston)
Record: 29-13
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.4
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 2
Rebounding Differential Rank: 9
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Klay Thompson (FD: $7900, DK: $7700 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 27)
Thompson outplayed James Harden on Saturday. Not only did was he more productive offensively, but he racked up five blocks in that game. He finished with 47 fantasy points in only 31 minutes of action. Thompson is one of the elite scorers in the NBA and draws a favorable matchup against Harden, who spends most of his energy on the offensive end of the floor.