NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, January 21st - Page Two
L.A. Lakers at New Orleans – 8:00 pm EST
- Vegas Line – New Orleans -7, 205 Over/Under
- L.A. Lakers Proj. Starters – Lin-Bryant-Johnson-Davis-Hill
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Evans-Gordon-Cunningham-Davis-Asik
| L.A. Lakers | New Orleans | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 205.0 |  | Vegas Total | 205.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.0 | Vegas Sprd | -7.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.0 | Team Proj. | 106.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.3 | Team Pace | 94.44 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jeremy Lin | Kobe Bryant | Wesley Johnson | Ed Davis | Jordan Hill | Proj Starter | Tyreke Evans | Eric Gordon | Dante Cunningham | Anthony Davis | Omer Asik | |
| Opp. Season | 20 | 16 | 18 | 11 | 16 | Opp. Season | 30 | 19 | 12 | 14 | 27 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 17 | 9 | 13 | 18 | 9 | Opp. Last 7 | 21 | 29 | 10 | 12 | 17 | |
L.A. Lakers
The Lakers head to New Orleans to take on the Pelicans tonight. Kobe Bryant and Carlos Boozer are both expected to play tonight, while Ronnie Price’s status is still up in the air. Bryant’s return to the lineup hurts the appeal of Wesley Johnson and Wayne Ellington. Boozer’s availability hurts the appeal of Ed Davis. Basically, what I’m getting at is that the Lakers are an easy team to avoid tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (New Orleans)
Record: 20-21
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.4
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 25
Rebounding Differential Rank: 8
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
New Orleans
The Pelicans are expecting to have Anthony Davis back in the lineup tonight against the Lakers. Jrue Holiday is listed as questionable. If he is unable to suit up, give a fantasy boost to both Tyreke Evans and Eric Gordon. The Pelicans draw a favorable matchup against the Lakers who have been consistently one of the worst defenses in the NBA this season.
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Lakers)
Record: 12-30
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.7
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 28
Rebounding Differential Rank: 21
Elite Plays
Anthony Davis (FD: $11100, DK: $11100 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 26.2)
The Brow was able to practice yesterday and is expected to be a full go tonight against the Lakers. He picked a great game to come back from his injury. On the season, the Lakers have allowed 106.7 points per game to their opponents, which is one of the highest in the NBA. They are ranked 21st in rebounding differential and will have a tough time matching up against Davis on both ends of the floor. I do not expect Davis to be limited in any kind of fashion, making him one of the top overall plays at any position tonight.
Secondary Plays
As mentioned above, Tyreke Evans and Eric Gordon would both make great fantasy options tonight against the Lakers, should Jrue Holiday be forced to sit out another game with his ankle injury.
Dallas at Minnesota – 8:00 pm EST
- Vegas Line – Dallas -8.5, 212.5 Over/Under
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Rondo-Ellis-Parsons-Nowitzki-Chandler
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Williams-Wiggins-Hummel-Young-Dieng
| Dallas | Minnesota | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 212.5 |  | Vegas Total | 212.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -8.5 | Vegas Sprd | 8.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 110.5 | Team Proj. | 102.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.22 | Team Pace | 98.29 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Rajon Rondo | Monta Ellis | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Tyson Chandler | Proj Starter | Mo Williams | Andrew Wiggins | Robbie Hummel | Thaddeus Young | Gorgui Dieng | |
| Opp. Season | 29 | 24 | 30 | 25 | 29 | Opp. Season | 28 | 3 | 19 | 9 | 14 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 25 | 26 | 8 | 7 | 18 | Opp. Last 7 | 13 | 1 | 24 | 20 | 28 | |
Dallas
The Mavericks will be reaching for fantasy gold tonight. They have arguably the best matchup on the schedule. They square off against the T-Wolves in Minnesota in a game that has the second-highest total of the night. The Mavericks are projected to score 110 points in this one. The best part is that this game will be played in Minnesota, which helps the T-Wolves’ chances of keeping this game fairly close. All five starters from the Mavericks are in play tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Minnesota)
Record: 7-33
Points Allowed Per Game: 108
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 30
Rebounding Differential Rank: 25
Elite Plays
Monta Ellis (FD: $7600, DK: $7100 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 28.5)
There was a point earlier in the season where Ellis was a very reliable option in cash games. That has changed a bit with Rajon Rondo in the mix. Ellis still has the same ceiling that he had previously, but we have seen a dip in his floor. That’s typically a cause for concern in cash games, but Ellis’ matchup is too good to pass up. The T-Wolves have allowed the 7th most fantasy points to shooting guards this season. Ellis is at his best in transition and the Mavericks should have plenty of fast-break opportunities tonight.
Tyson Chandler (FD: $7100, DK: $6300 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 13)
I see some very encouraging signs from Chandler’s recent game logs. Over his last six games, he has averaged 32 fantasy points per game. More importantly is the fact that he has averaged 36 minutes per game during that stretch. If he sees anywhere close to 36 minutes tonight, he should reach value with ease. The T-Wolves are ranked 25th in rebounding differential and have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to centers this season.
Secondary Plays
Rajon Rondo, Dirk Nowitzki, and Chandler Parsons are all in play against the T-Wolves. They are more price-sensitive options though.
Minnesota
The T-Wolves are hoping to have some of their players return from injury soon. Ricky Rubio will not play tonight, but both Kevin Martin and Nikola Pekovic are listed as game-time decisions. It’s not clear how many minutes they will each play if they do take the court, but they will likely cut into the production of Andrew Wiggins and Gorgui Dieng.
Opponent Breakdown (Dallas)
Record: 29-13
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.3
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 16
Rebounding Differential Rank: 27
Elite Plays
Mo Williams (FD: $6100, DK: $6200 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 23.2)
With Ricky Rubio’s return on the horizon, Williams needs to make the most of his last couple of starts. He couldn’t buy a bucket the other day against the Hornets, but is in a prime position to bounce back tonight against the Mavericks, who have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to point guards this season. Williams has been outstanding as a starter this season, averaging 18 points, 3 rebounds, and 8 assists per game.
Secondary Plays
If Kevin Martin is ruled out tonight, Andrew Wiggins would remain a viable fantasy option at small forward. His usage rate continues to trend upward with Shabazz Muhammad out.
Oklahoma City at Washington – 8:00 pm EST
- Vegas Line – Washington -1.5, 206.5 Over/Under
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Roberson-Durant-Ibaka-Adams
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Pierce-Hilario-Gortat
| Oklahoma City | Washington | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 206 |  | Vegas Total | 206 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 1.5 | Vegas Sprd | -1.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.5 | Team Proj. | 104 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.09 | Team Pace | 95.47 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Kevin Durant | Serge Ibaka | Steven Adams | Proj Starter | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Paul Pierce | Nene Hilario | Marcin Gortat | |
| Opp. Season | 5 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 3 | Opp. Season | 25 | 15 | 11 | 19 | 4 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 23 | Opp. Last 7 | 14 | 27 | 11 | 22 | 5 | |
Oklahoma City
The Thunder are above .500 for the first time this season. They have won three in a row and six of their last ten. A win over the Wizards in Washington could really be a turning point in their season. Vegas has the Thunder listed as 1.5-point underdogs in a game that features a fairly high total of 206 points. Even with the high total, this is not a great matchup. The Wizards are ranked seventh in defensive efficiency this season. They have also been stingy against all five positions on the floor, as you can see from the table above.
Opponent Breakdown (Washington)
Record: 29-13
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.9
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 7
Rebounding Differential Rank: 5
Elite Plays
Kevin Durant (FD: $10700, DK: $10700 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 29.4)
Superstars are really the only players that I don’t mind targeting in tough matchups. Kevin Durant is as close to matchup-proof as there is in the NBA. He has scored at least 47 fantasy points in four of his last five games, including a 51 fantasy point outing last night in a tough matchup against the Heat. He will likely have a lower percentage of ownership than he deserves, which is more than fine with me. He is finally starting to produce at an elite level and this may be the last time that we can target him at a price under $11,000.
Secondary Plays
None
Washington
The Wizards have the fourth-best home record in the NBA at 18-5. Tonight they host the Thunder in what should be a hotly contested game between two very talented teams. The Wizards draw the better matchup of the two in terms of potential fantasy production. The Thunder play at a very fast pace and have allowed opponents to score an average of 98.5 points per game.
Opponent Breakdown (Oklahoma City)
Record: 21-20
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.5
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 9
Rebounding Differential Rank: 2
Elite Plays
John Wall (FD: $8600, DK: $9200 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 25)
Damian Lillard is going to be the premier play at point guard tonight. While he certainly deserves to be the top option, I have John Wall listed as point guard option 1B. Wall has been terrific at home this season, averaging 18 points, 5 rebounds, and 11 assists per game. He has just as much upside as Lillard and actually draws a better matchup. Tonight he squares off against Russell Westbrook and the Thunder, who have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to point guards this season.
Secondary Plays
None
Toronto at Memphis – 8:00 pm EST
- Vegas Line – Memphis -5, 198.5 Over/Under
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-DeRozan-Ross-Johnson-Valanciunas
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Allen-Randolph-Gasol
| Toronto | Memphis | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 198.5 |  | Vegas Total | 198.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.00 | Vegas Sprd | -5.00 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 96.75 | Team Proj. | 101.75 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.03 | Team Pace | 94.15 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | Terrence Ross | Amir Johnson | Jonas Valanciunas | Proj Starter | Mike Conley | Courtney Lee | Tony Allen | Zach Randolph | Marc Gasol | |
| Opp. Season | 3 | 22 | 20 | 6 | 1 | Opp. Season | 17 | 10 | 23 | 8 | 11 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 16 | 6 | 5 | 27 | 1 | Opp. Last 7 | 28 | 8 | 23 | 2 | 11 | |
Toronto
The Raptors are a difficult team to predict right now. With DeMar DeRozan back in the lineup, quite a few players have seen a decline in their usage and/or minutes. Kyle Lowry, Lou Williams, and James Johnson all have slightly decreased roles with DeRozan back. If that wasn’t bad enough, the Raptors have to square off against a good defensive team in the Grizzlies.
Opponent Breakdown (Memphis)
Record: 29-12
Points Allowed Per Game: 98
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 11
Rebounding Differential Rank: 15
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
DeMar DeRozan (FD: $7300, DK: $6700 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 28.5)
As mentioned above, DeRozan’s presence really cuts into the production of a few Raptors’ players. He makes an interesting option himself though, as he has scored at least 28 fantasy points in three of his first four games since returning from his injury. He draws the best matchup of the five starters, as the Grizzlies are ranked 22nd against shooting guards this season. DeRozan is sitting at a very affordable price point on DraftKings tonight.
Memphis
The Grizzlies are five-point favorites tonight against the Raptors, in a game that features a relatively high total at 198.5 points. The Raptors are ranked 21st in defensive efficiency this season, allowing opponents to score an average of 101.1 points per game. There aren’t any options that stand out as must plays, but it’s not a match up that we need to shy away from either.
Opponent Breakdown (Toronto)
Record: 27-14
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.1
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 21
Rebounding Differential Rank: 17
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Marc Gasol (FD: $8600, DK: $8400 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 25.2)
Gasol has everything that we look for in daily fantasy basketball. Minutes, check. High usage rate, check. Ability to fill up the stat sheet, check. The only thing holding him back from being an elite play tonight is the other options at center. Nikola Vucevic has a better matchup and is listed at a similar price point. And Chris Kaman is arguably the best value play at any position.
Portland at Phoenix – 9:00 pm EST
- Vegas Line – Phoenix -6.5, 211 Over/Under
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Robinson-Kaman
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Dragic-Bledsoe-Tucker-Morris-Len
| Portland | Phoenix | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 211.0 |  | Vegas Total | 211.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 6.5 | Vegas Sprd | -6.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.25 | Team Proj. | 108.75 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.62 | Team Pace | 99.06 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Damian Lillard | Wesley Matthews | Nicolas Batum | Thomas Robinson | Chris Kaman | Proj Starter | Goran Dragic | Eric Bledsoe | P.J. Tucker | Markieff Morris | Alex Len | |
| Opp. Season | 8 | 18 | 22 | 7 | 23 | Opp. Season | 21 | 12 | 13 | 2 | 10 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 3 | 25 | 25 | 6 | 2 | Opp. Last 7 | 26 | 13 | 28 | 4 | 21 | |
Portland
The Blazers will be without LaMarcus Aldridge tonight, which leaves a gaping hole in their lineup. It also leaves a ton of production that will need to be made up by the rest of their starters. All five starters tonight should see an increase in minutes and/or usage. That is great news for the expected fantasy production for the players in this game. The Blazers also draw a favorable matchup against the Suns, who have allowed 104.6 points per game this season. All five starters are in play tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Phoenix)
Record: 25-18
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.6
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 17
Rebounding Differential Rank: 24
Elite Plays
Damian Lillard (FD: $9000, DK: $9500 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 26.2)
Lillard is in the “fade at your own risk” territory tonight. With Aldridge out, his usage rate should be extremely high tonight. He will become the number one option offensively. While the Suns have been stingy against point guards this season, they have not played great team defense. Plus, Lillard’s increased role in the offense more than makes up for a weak matchup. He should be considered the top point guard option tonight.
Nicolas Batum (FD: $5300, DK: $5400 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 14.6)
Batum has hit the trifecta in daily fantasy basketball. His price is at it’s lowest point of the season (under $5,500), he should have an increased role in the offense (with Aldridge out), and he draws a favorable matchup against the Suns (ranked 22nd against small forwards). Everything points to a big fantasy outing from Batum tonight, making him my favorite play at small forward.
Chris Kaman (FD: $4600, DK: $4400 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 24.5)
Without Aldridge in the lineup, the Blazers are going to have to make up for a lot of that production. The biggest beneficiary in the frontcourt is Kaman, who will now become the go-to big man in the Blazers’ offense. He has played well as a starter and could very well post his best game of the season tonight against the Suns. His ownership level will be extremely high, but this is as close to a sure thing as we are going to find tonight.
Secondary Plays
Wesley Matthews is obviously in play against the Suns with LaMarcus Aldridge out. Thomas Robinson is also worth a look at min-salary as long as draws the start at power forward.
Phoenix
The Suns get to face a Blazers team that is missing both pieces of their starting frontcourt. LaMarcus Aldridge and Robin Lopez will both be sidelined for this game, which leaves the Blazers without an elite rim-protector. The Suns are projected to score 109 points tonight, which is one of the highest team totals on the board.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Eric Bledsoe (FD: $8200, DK: $8600 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 23.5)
Bledsoe is always a great target in tournaments thanks to his high ceiling. He has been in a fantasy slump over the last couple of weeks, but his price has come down a bit on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Tonight’s matchup against the Blazers suits Bledsoe’s game well, as the Blazers will be without their two best rim protectors. As mentioned above, the Suns are projected to score 109 points tonight, which suggest a fast-paced outing against the Blazers.