NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, March 19th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-03-19 20:17:18

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace

Chicago at Philadelphia

Vegas Line – Chicago -13, 196 Over/Under
Chicago Proj. Starters – Hinrich-Butler-Dunleavy-Boozer-Noah
Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Wroten-Thompson-Young-Sims

Chicago

The good news for us DFS players is that this game will be played in Philadelphia. The Bulls are still 13 point favorites though and the Sixers have a good shot of getting blown out of the gym every time they take the floor. I don’t think we have to worry about factoring in a blowout in this one though. Coach Thibs loves to run his players ragged with minutes and most of his starter’s end up seeing minutes well into the 4th quarter even when the game is out of hand.

We all know how bad this Sixers defense is. They have surrendered the most or 2nd most FP’s to every position on the floor this season and are giving up an insane 110 points per game. You could make a case for 7 different Bulls players and I couldn’t fault you for any of them. Mike Dunleavy and Jimmy Butler both look like solid options at the 2 and 3, Carlos Boozer price is depressed, Kirk Hinrich is a nice punt option, and Taj Gibson should dominate both ends of the floor while he is on the court. All of them are in play tonight, but I have narrowed it down to my favorite two.

Joakim Noah – Noah is a walking triple-double right now. The entire offense runs through him and he should have a monster game in ALL areas tonight. The Sixers can’t defend, they can’t rebound, and they turn the ball over often. Oh, and did I mention that the Sixers attack the basket a ton which could mean a couple of blocks for Noah as well. Dollar for dollar, he is my top play in the industry tonight.

D.J. Augustin – The only site that Augustin may be a little too expensive on is FD, but even at $5,800, he could easily pay off his salary tonight. Augustin is consistently seeing 30+ minutes lately and is immune to a blowout because he gets the garbage time at point. I think everyone will overlook him because he is coming off of the bench, but I’m predicting 30+ FP’s from him tonight.

Philadelphia

The Sixers have a less than favorable matchup tonight. It’s hard enough to predict the fantasy production from these guys when they have a good matchup and I’m going to try to do that tonight in a bad matchup. The Bulls are ranked 2nd in the league in points allowed per game at 92.3 and are ranked 8th or better against all five positions on the floor. Tony Wroten could make an interesting tournament play if James Anderson has to sit out again, but avoid all Sixers in cash games tonight.

Miami at Boston

Vegas Line – Miami -6.5, 198 Over/Under
Miami Proj. Starters – Chalmers-Wade-James-Bosh-Oden
Boston Proj. Starters – Rondo-Bradley-Green-Humphries-Bass

Miami

The Heat should have Dwyane Wade back for tonight’s game and he may have to carry the load offensively as LeBron James played 42 minutes last night against the Cavs in a much closer game than most people expected. Their matchup against the Celtics isn’t great, but it’s not one that you need to avoid either. The Celtics are ranked 6th and 8th against PG’s and SG’s over the last 15 days. This is thanks to both Avery Bradley and Rajon Rondo being in the lineup.

Chris Bosh – I don’t mind Wade here, but Bradley is a very tough defender so I would rather target Bosh in a more favorable matchup. The Celtics are ranked 27th and 14th against PF’s and Centers this season and Bosh will likely spend some time playing both positions tonight. Bosh has resembled a consistent fantasy player lately as he has topped 25 FP’s in each of his last 7 games.

Boston

The Celtics have a tough matchup against the Heat, but we can never really be sure which Heat defense is going to show up. On the season, the Heat are holding their opponents to 98.6 points per game, but there have been times where they have played some awful defense. I think we have to trust the numbers in this one though and the numbers say to stay away from Rajon Rondo, Avery Bradley, and Jeff Green. The Heat are ranked 2nd, 2nd, and 4th against those positions this season.

Kris Humphries – How can you not take Hump on Hump Day? The Heat struggle to defend bigs and are the 3rd worst rebounding team in the league in total rebounding percentage (47.2%). Both bode well for Hump tonight. Since being re-inserted into the starting lineup, he has consistently hit his value and has had a very high ceiling as well. His price is starting to come up, but you can count on another 25+ FP effort from him tonight.

Charlotte at Brooklyn

Vegas Line – Brooklyn -6.5, 194 Over/Under
Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-McRoberts-Jefferson
Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Livingston-Johnson-Pierce-Plumlee

Charlotte

The Bobcats and Nets are very similar teams in terms of pace of play and defense. This is not a great matchup for either side in terms of fantasy potential. The Nets only average 94 possessions per game and are holding opponents to 98.8 points per game which is the 9th best in the NBA. Over the last 15 days, the Nets are ranked 8th or better against PG’s, SG’s, SF’s, and PF’s. There is really only one viable fantasy option on the Bobcats tonight.

Al Jefferson – The Nets will be without KG again tonight which means Plumlee and Blatche will have to hold down the fort at Center once again. I don’t mind either of those matchups for Jefferson and you can see by the DvP ranking over the last 15 days, those two have not been great defensively. Jefferson has a 26.7% usage rate this season and should see his typical 20+ shot attempts.

Brooklyn

The Nets also have a weak matchup in terms of potential fantasy output. The Bobcats own a legitimate defense. They are holding opponents to 97.1 points per game which is the 5th fewest in the NBA. The Bobcats also play at a slower than average pace which doesn’t bode well for the Nets. Looking at the DvP rankings over the last 15 days, the PG position is really the only one to target as the Bobcats are ranked 12th or better against the other 4 positions on the floor. Andray Blatche does carry value as a tournament play, but has not been consistent enough to use in cash games.

Deron Williams – The Bobcats are ranked 22nd against PG’s this season and D-Will is coming off of a very solid performance against the Suns the other night. Williams has quietly been a very nice fantasy option in close games this season and he should see a full complement of minutes. I don’t mind the matchup or the price tag tonight.

Utah at Memphis

Vegas Line – Memphis -11.5, 188 Over/Under
Utah Proj. Starters – Burke-Hayward-Jefferson-Williams-Favors
Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Prince-Randolph-Gasol

Utah

The Jazz are one of the many teams that are in complete tank mode right now. At this point, a win hurts them more than anything and it doesn’t appear that they will be much of a threat for the red hot Grizzlies tonight. This is an awful matchup for the Jazz and the potential blowout never helps either. The Grizzlies are ranked 13th or better against all five positions in terms of fantasy points allowed and all Jazz players should be avoided tonight.

Memphis

The Grizzlies face a Jazz team that has only won 8 games on the road this season. While the Jazz are not a great basketball team, they play at a slow pace and that has translated into decent DvP rankings. The Jazz are ranked between 12th – 23rd against all five positions on the floor. I’m tempted to avoid this game altogether, but I do like the matchup for Marc Gasol. He has been a very solid fantasy option over the last 3 weeks. That said, why take Gasol when you can pay up a bit more and take Noah?

Toronto at New Orleans

Vegas Line – EVEN LINE, 198 Over/Under
Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-Derozan-Ross-Johnson-Valanciunas
New Orleans Proj. Starters – Roberts-Gordon-Evans-Davis-Stiemsma

Toronto

The Raptors are going to be without Patrick Patterson again tonight and Jonas Valanciunas could be joining him. Big Val has a sprained lower back and is very questionable to play tonight. If he can’t go, that just opens up more minutes for Amir Johnson and we would likely see Tyler Hansbrough see a big increase in minutes as well.

The Raptors matchup against the Pelicans is a favorable one. Even though the Pelicans play at a slow pace (94 possessions per game), they are ranked 20th or worse against PG’s, PF’s, and Centers this season. DeMar DeRozan is coming off of a very nice game last night, but has a tough matchup against the Pelicans. I still think he offers a decent option on sites that have him priced low, but I’m not in love with the matchup.

Kyle Lowry – Even though Lowry’s usage rate (22.5%) is slightly lower than DeRozan’s (26.5%), Lowry is a better rebounder and gets more steals and assists as well. Lowry has posted 52, 56, and 42 fantasy points in his last 3 games and continues to be a high ceiling player that often pays off his salary. The Pelicans are ranked 23rd against PG’s and Lowry should have himself another solid fantasy outing

Amir Johnson – With Patterson out, Amir is already being asked to play 35+ minutes per night and if Jonas is out as well, that number could easily go up to 40. Johnson has been extremely consistent and reliable over the last three weeks and I like his upside against the Pelicans who have not defended the paint well this season. There is a little concern that he could get into foul trouble against Davis, but that’s not enough to fade him.

New Orleans

The Pelicans are facing a Raptors defense that is holding opponents to 97.5 points per game which is the 6th fewest in the NBA this season. It sounds like Monty Williams is going to switch things up and he may start Anthony Davis at Center and start Al-Farouq Aminu at PF. If that’s the case, it gives a small fantasy boost to Aminu. The Raptors are ranked 10th or better against all five positions on the floor this season, but I do think both Anthony Davis and Tyreke Evans make nice tournament plays.