NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, March 19th - Page 2

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-03-19 19:11:13

All stat chart buttons below open in an in-screen popup window and include stat tables for all games on the given page of the Grind Down Article

Indiana at New York

Vegas Line – Indiana -2.5, 195.5 Over/Under
Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Stephenson-George-West-Hibbert
New York Proj. Starters – Felton-Smith-Anthony-Stoudemire-Chandler

Indiana

The Pacers are 2.5 point favorites against the Knicks tonight in a matchup between teams that appear to be going in opposite directions. The Pacers have lost 4 of their last 8 games and have failed to have that killer instinct. Meanwhile, the Knicks are making a push for that 8th seed as they have won 6 straight. Vegas expects this one to be close and I agree. The Knicks are ranked 8th or better against PG’s, PF’s, and Centers so I will be targeting George and Stephenson in this one.

Paul George – George has had his way with the Knicks this season. In their previous two meetings, Geroge has averaged 30 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, and a block per game. I’m always a little hesitant to take George in potential blowouts because of his hefty price tag, but we don’t have to worry about that tonight.

Lance Stephenson – Stephenson can be fantasy gold or fantasy dynamite. He can score 15 FP’s in a 5 minute stretch and then go scoreless in the next quarter and a half. While that’s not a great quality to have, I love the matchup against the Knicks who have surrendered the 4th most FP’s to SG’s this season. In their first two meeting this season, Stephenson has averaged 18 points, 6 rebounds, and 5 assists.

New York

A matchup against the Pacers is usually one that I try to avoid whenever possible, but the Pacers have not had that same shut down defense that they had earlier in the season. The Pacers have given up over 100 points in 4 of their last 7 games. The season averages and DvP rankings still look great, but the Pacers have been below average defensively against PG’s, SG’s, and Centers over the last 15 days. While I don’t think any Knicks’ players will find their way into my cash game lineups, the point that I’m trying to make is that at this point in the season, you shouldn’t just rule out players that are facing the Pacers.

Minnesota at Dallas

Vegas Line – Dallas -5, 209.5 Over/Under
Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Brewer-Love-Dieng
Dallas Proj. Starters – Calderon-Ellis-Marion-Nowitzki-Dalembert

Minnesota

The Wolves will be without Nikola Pekovic tonight which means Gorgui Dieng will likely draw the start and Kevin Love should see an uptick in production as well. This game should be close and high scoring and is a nice one to target tonight. The Mavericks are giving up 101.8 points per game this season and are the 6th worst rebounding team in terms of total rebounding percentage (48.4%).

Kevin Love – It’s hard to go against Anthony Davis and the crazy hot run that he is on, but Love is my top overall fantasy option tonight. With Pekovic out, that should open up some rebounds and shot attempts for Love. It also doesn’t hurt that the Mavericks do not rebound well and that they have surrendered the 3rd most FP’s to opposing PF’s over the last 15 days.

Dante Cunningham – While Dieng makes a decent punt option, I think Cunningham is the better play of the two. He should see a nice fantasy boost with Pek out and we’ve seen what he can do when given big minutes. Cunningham is a very solid punt play tonight at PF.

Dallas

The Mavericks are facing a Wolves defense that was not very great to begin with and will now be without their rim protector. The Wolves are ranked 17th or worse against PG’s, SG’s, SF’s, and PF’s this season. The problem with the Mavs is that their production has come from all over the place recently. One night Dirk will have a big game, then Monta, then the bench. They have been very tough to predict on a nightly basis. I like both Jose Calderon and Shawn Marion as punt plays, but think Dirk is the best option.

Dirk Nowitzki – In two games against the Wolves this season, Dirk is averaging 27 points and 5 rebounds. He also has great home splits this season as he is averaging over 35 FP’s per game at home his season. His lackluster play of late has his price very low in a few spots and this is a great time to buy low on the perennial All-Star.

Detroit at Denver

Vegas Line – Denver -7, 219 Over/Under
Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Singler-Smith-Jerebko-Monroe
Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Foye-Chandler-Faried-Mozgov

Detroit

If I had to choose a single game to target tonight, this would be it. Both of these teams love to push the pace and both teams are near the bottom of the league in most defensive categories. The Pistons are going to be without Andre Drummond tonight which means we should see a nice uptick in production from both Greg Monroe and Josh Smith. Jonas Jerebko and Charlie Villanueva could also see some playing time, but neither really stand out as viable fantasy options. Kyle Singler makes a nice punt play at SG/SF again tonight, his is still close to minimum salary on most sites. Rodney Stuckey makes a great tournament play as he has topped 23 FP’s in 2 of his last 3 games.

Josh Smith – Smith is one of my favorite plays on the board tonight. Not only does he have an extremely high ceiling, but he should see a fantasy boost with Drummond out and he is at his best in fast paced games where he can run the floor. J Smoove should be owned in all leagues across all sites tonight. That’s how confident I am in him tonight.

Greg Monroe – Denver and giving up big games to opposing bigs goes together like peanut butter and jelly, like hitters and Coors Field, like everyone against the Sixers. Monroe should be in for a huge fantasy performance tonight with Monroe out. His price has gone way up recently and I think that most people will avoid him for that reason which should make him a great play that’s slightly under-owned.

Denver

The Nuggets will be without Wilson Chandler tonight and may be without Ty Lawson as he is currently listed as questionable. With this game having a late start, I doubt we hear about Lawson’s status before the first game tips off, but if Lawson has to sit, both Randy Foye and Aaron Brooks would make great value plays on late swap sites.

Kenneth Faried – The Manimal has been on an incredible run of late. Over his past 8 games, he is averaging over 20 points and 10 rebounds. Now that his minutes are solidified, he is one of my favorite fantasy options. His price is still in the $7-8k range on FD and DK and he should be able to pay off his salary and more with his recent level of production.

Evan Fournier – Fournier will see a nice fantasy boost with Chandler out and could end up being one of the best value plays on the board if Lawson sits out as well. Fournier has shown that he has nice upside when given big minutes and it’s hard to argue with the matchup against the uptempo Pistons.

Orlando at Phoenix

Vegas Line – Phoenix -11, 210 Over/Under
Orlando Proj. Starters – Nelson-Afflalo-Harkless-O’Quinn-Vucevic
Phoenix Proj. Starters – Dragic-Bledsoe-Tucker-Frye-Plumlee

Orlando

The Magic’s road woes continue and they are barely even competitive on their current road trip. The Magic own the worst road record in the NBA and I would not be one bit surprised if this game is over by the end of the 3rd quarter. With the Magic fully healthy, their minutes are all down a bit across the board and there just aren’t any fantasy options that stand out to me. Victor Oladipo may make sense as a GPP play and I suppose Maurice Harkless could make a decent punt play. Other than that, this Magic team should be avoided tonight.

Phoenix

The Suns are 11 point favorites tonight, but I have a feeling that they will easily cover that spread. The Magic can’t win on the road and they are playing the second half of a back to back after getting blown out by the Warriors last night. Goran Dragic price has come down across the industry, but his production has really been hurt by Eric Bledsoe. Speaking of Bledsoe, he makes a nice GPP play, but he’s tough to use in cash games right now and the Suns aren’t going to use him more than they have to if this game turns into a blowout.

San Antonio at L.A.Lakers

Vegas Line – San Antonio -13, 224 Over/Under
San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter
L.A.Lakers Proj. Starters – Marshall-Meeks-Johnson-Kelly-Gasol

San Antonio

The last time these two teams met, the Spurs jumped out to a huge lead and Tony Parker and Tim Duncan both played less than 15 minutes. While that game was played in San Antonio, I think there are too many red flags with the Spurs to trust them in cash games. This game is the last game of the night to tip-off and with Coach Pop throwing out DNP’s right and left toward the end of the season, it’s probably best to just avoid all Spurs in cash games. They certainly make sense as tournament plays, but you won’t find any Spurs in my cash game lineups tonight.

L.A.Lakers

The Lakers are at least playing at home tonight where they have been able to keep games competitive this season. This isn’t a great matchup for the Lakers, but we may not see a full effort from the Spurs tonight. Ryan Kelly continues to make a nice punt play as the Lakers continue to give him 30+ minutes per night. Wesley Johnson makes a nice GPP play with his depressed price tag. However, for the most part, this game is an easy one to avoid even with the high total.