NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, March 26th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-03-26 19:52:22

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NBA Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace

Brooklyn at Charlotte

Vegas Line – Even Spread, 194 Over/Under
Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Livingston-Johnson-Pierce-Plumlee
Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-McRoberts-Jefferson

Brooklyn

In case you have been hiding under a rock, DraftKings’ $1,000,000 Bank Shot is tonight. With the exception of the DFBBC, this is really the last big night for DFS during the NBA season. In addition to the Bank Shot, DraftStreet is also running their final Big Score tournament that is giving out $150,000 in prizes. There are plenty of spots open in both so make sure to take your shot at these HUGE payouts.

The first game of the night features two teams that like to slow the pace of the game down and win by playing stout defense. The Bobcats are holding opponents to the 4th fewest points per game this season and are ranked 8th or better against SG’s, SF’s, and PF’s this season. If that wasn’t enough, the Nets are playing some of the best team basketball in the NBA. They have 8 legitimate contributors that seem to take turns having solid fantasy performances. As far as cash games are concerned, there is only one play that I will be targeting tonight:

Shaun Livingston – Livingston is still cheap across the industry even though he has topped 20 FP’s in 9 straight games. He continues to make a great punt play on both FD and DK and should be able to continue his streak tonight. The Bobcats have been solid against SG’s this season, but Livingston fills up all areas of the stat sheet and doesn’t rely on points for his fantasy production.

Additional Bank Shot Plays – Joe Johnson, Paul Pierce, Mason Plumlee, Andray Blatche

Charlotte

The Bobcats are also in a less than favorable position tonight. The Nets have won 7 of their last 9 games and are holding opponents to the 9th fewest points per game this season. That said, the Nets have picked up their pace of play lately and have given up an average of 104 points per game over their last 4 games. If this was a night that had a small slate of games, I might target either Kemba Walker or Al Jefferson, but there are better options at both of their price points tonight. This game has a fairly low total and will likely be won on the defensive end of the floor.

Additional Bank Shot Plays – Kemba Walker, Al Jefferson, Gerald Henderson

Phoenix at Washington

Vegas Line – Phoenix -2, 210 Over/Under
Phoenix Proj. Starters – Dragic-Bledsoe-Tucker-Frye-Plumlee
Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Ariza-Booker-Gortat

Phoenix

The Suns have a pretty average matchup tonight against the Wizards. The Wizards have given up an average of 100 points per game this season which is right around the league average. The Wizards are also an average rebounding team. In cases like this, we need to turn to the DvP rankings. As you can see, the Wizards have been very formidable against opposing bigs this season as they are ranked 5th and 8th against PF’s and Centers.

Goran Dragic – Dragic is really the only cash game play for the Suns tonight. His production has taken a hit since Bledsoe came back from his injury, but they are starting to play much better together and Dragic’s price has come down across the industry. Dragic is averaging 32 FP’s over his last 4 games and the Wizards are ranked 15th against PG’s this season.

Additional Bank Shot Plays – Eric Bledsoe, Markieff Morris

Washington

The Wizards have a very favorable matchup. This will be a pace-up game for them as the Suns are averaging 98 possessions per game. The Suns have struggled on the defensive end of the floor this season as they have given up an average of 102.8 points per game. There are a lot of plays on the Wizards tonight. The Suns have not defended any position particularly well this season. While they are ranked 8th against SG’s on the season, that ranking drops to 21st in the league over the last 15 days.

John Wall – Wall has plenty of stats in his favor tonight and I don’t see him disappointing. Wall is averaging well over 40 FP’s at home this season and has a nice matchup against Dragic and the Suns who are ranked 20th against PG’s this season. Wall has scored over 48 FP’s in 3 of his last 5 games and has that high ceiling that you are looking for when you spend this much on a player.

Drew Gooden – Gooden is still minimum salary on FD which makes him as close to a must play as you are going to find on that site. His price on the other major sites has come up, but he’s still in play across the board. Gooden is averaging over 27 FP’s per game over his last 5 and has been fed a steady diet of 20-28 minutes per game.

Additional Bank Shot Plays – Trevor Ariza, Bradley Beal

Toronto at Boston

Vegas Line – Toronto -3, 195 Over/Under
Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-Derozan-Ross-Johnson-Valanciunas
Boston Proj. Starters – Rondo-Bradley-Green-Humphries-Bass

Toronto

Coach Casey has come out and said that he is going to try to rest some of his players down the stretch. By rest, he means limit their minutes. We saw this with Lowry a few nights ago and it’s something to monitor moving forward especially considering the fact that this is a back to back situation after losing a tough game in Cleveland last night. Tonight’s game should be played at a fairly slow pace and if you look at the DvP rankings, the Celtics have been pretty average at defending all five positions this season.

Amir Johnson – The one cash game play that I am looking at here is Johnson. Patterson is still not ready to make his return to the court and Johnson should continue his dominant play on both ends of the floor. Johnson’s floor in his last 8 games has been 25 FP’s and his ceiling has been 56. That’s not bad at all at his price point.

Additional Bank Shot Plays – Kyle Lowry, Terrence Ross, Jonas Valanciunas

Boston

The Celtics have a tough matchup tonight against the Raptors who are holding their opponents to the 6th fewest points per game this season. The Raptors are also ranked 10th or better against all five positions on the floor in terms of fantasy points allowed. The one argument that you could make is that the Raptors may be tired after playing last night, but even then, this is a tough matchup for the C’s. The total of this game is set at 195 points and I will not be targeting any C’s in my cash games tonight.

Additional Bank Shot Plays – Rajon Rondo, Jeff Green, Kris Humphries

Cleveland at Detroit

Vegas Line – Detroit -6, 205 Over/Under
Cleveland Proj. Starters – Jack-Waiters-Deng-Thompson-Hawes
Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Stuckey-Singler-Smith-Monroe

Cleveland

The Cavaliers have found a nice little rhythm with Kyrie Irving out of the lineup. After beating the Knicks in New York, they turned around and beat the Raptors at home last night. Tonight they get to face a Pistons team that has all but given up defensively. The Pistons have given up the 4th most points per game this season and are below average defensively against all five positions on the floor. This should be a fast-paced game and I will be heavily targeted the backcourt of the Cavs again tonight.

Dion Waiters – In his 5 games with Kyrie out of the lineup, Waiters has posted 34, 43, 39, 29, and 40 FP’s. His price has started to come up across the industry, but you should still be targeting him in ALL leagues tonight. His $7,100 price tag on DK puts him at 14.2% of the cap which is the most of all major sites. But at the level he has been producing, he could still easily reach value.

Jarrett Jack – Jack’s price is all over the place tonight. He ranges from only 8.33% of the total cap on FD all the way to 12.3% of the cap on DS. He ranges from a terrific play on FD to a solid play on DS. I love his matchup against Jennings and the Pistons who are ranked 25th against PG’s this season.

Additional Bank Shot Plays – Luol Deng, Tristan Thompson, Spencer Hawes, Anderson Varejao

Detroit

The Pistons are also in a favorable spot tonight. The Cavs play at an average pace, but are giving up 101.6 points per game and are ranked 17th or worse against PG’s, SG’s, and SF’s this season. This game should be played at a fast-pace and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them hit the over. Typically, I like to target the Pistons players as GPP players only, but I think there are two plays that make sense as plays in ALL leagues tonight.

Brandon Jennings – Jennings has an extremely low floor and an extremely high ceiling. He is the definition of a boom or bust play. That said, this sure feels like a “boom” type of night. The Cavaliers have been one of the worst teams in the league against PG’s this season and it hasn’t gotten any better with Irving out of the lineup. Jennings’ price is depressed across the industry and he should pay off his salary and more tonight.

Josh Smith – Smith is in the same boat as Jennings. He’s been very inconsistent and his play has been lackluster of late. He’s headed back home though where he has nice splits and he is facing a Cavs defense that is ranked 28th against SF’s this season.

Additional Bank Shot Plays – Andre Drummond, Greg Monroe, Rodney Stuckey, Kyle Singer, Will Bynum

Atlanta at Minnesota

Vegas Line – Minnesota -6, 214.5 Over/Under
Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Mack-Carroll-Millsap-Antic
Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Brewer-Love-Dieng

Atlanta

The Hawks and Wolves are two teams that are right on the playoff bubble. Of the two, the Hawks have a much better chance of reaching the playoffs. This is a solid matchup for both teams and as you can see from the high total of 214 points, this should be a very high scoring game. The Wolves are giving up the 5th most points per game this season and are ranked 26th or worse against PG’s, SG’s, and SF’s this season. Paul Millsap and Pero Antic are both in play, but the Wolves’ frontcourt is certainly the more formidable of the two.

Jeff Teague – Rubio and the Wolves have been burned by PG’s all season long. They have surrendered the 5th most FP’s to PG’s this season and Teague has scored at least 28 FP’s in each of his last 7 games (34+ in 4 of those games). Teague will look to push the tempo and create some easy opportunities in transition.

Mike Scott – Kyle Korver has already been ruled out for tonight’s game and the Hawks have decided to switch up their lineup and start Scott at SF. This should mean a nice uptick in both minutes and production for Scott. He has seen very limited minutes lately and his price has dropped dramatically across the board. He’s a solid punt play tonight.

Additional Bank Shot Plays – Paul Millsap, DeMarre Carroll, Pero Antic

Minnesota

The Wolves are also in a very favorable matchup tonight. The Hawks have given up the 12th most points per game this season and ranked 19th or worse against all five positions in terms of fantasy points allowed on the season. Nikola Pekovic has already been ruled out for tonight’s game which means Gorgui Dieng will draw another start at Center. Ricky Rubio is a bit too inconsistent to trust in cash games and the Wolves’ wings have been inconsistent of late as well.

Kevin Love – Love is the top overall fantasy option tonight. He has a very nice matchup against the under-sized Millsap. The Hawks are ranked 23rd against PF’s this season and Love has seen a nice boost in production lately because he is starting to rack up more assists. I like the matchup and the upside tonight.

Gorgui Dieng – In his last 5 games, Dieng has posted 38, 28, 55, 20, and 32 FP’s. His price is still affordable across the board and I am all in on him tonight against this Hawks team that can’t rebound or defend the paint. I think his floor is around 25 FP’s with the potential to crack 40.

Additional Bank Shot Plays – Ricky Rubio, Kevin Martin, Corey Brewer