NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, March 4th - Page Three
Sacramento at San Antonio – 8:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -10.5, 206 Over/Under
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – McCallum-McLemore-Gay-Thompson-Cousins
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter
| Sacramento | San Antonio | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 206 |  | Vegas Total | 206 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 10.5 | Vegas Sprd | -10.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.75 | Team Proj. | 108.25 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.59 | Team Pace | 95.71 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ray McCallum | Ben McLemore | Rudy Gay | Jason Thompson | DeMarcus Cousins | Proj Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | Tim Duncan | Tiago Splitter | |
| Opp. Season | 10 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 17 | Opp. Season | 27 | 30 | 6 | 21 | 26 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 14 | 9 | 16 | 13 | 1 | Opp. Last 7 | ||||||
Sacramento
The Kings put a beating on the Knicks last night. DeMarcus Cousins was well on his way to a monster outing, but unfortunately the Knicks couldn’t keep the game close and Cousins was limited to only 29 minutes. Tonight may be a different story for the Kings, as they have to face the defending champion Spurs in San Antonio. The Kings are 10-point underdogs against a team that is ranked eighth in points allowed per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (San Antonio)
Record: 36-23
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.1 (Rank: 8)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 4
Rebounding Differential Rank: 10
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
DeMarcus Cousins (FD: $10900, DK: $9700 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 34)
Cousins is one of those plays that could make or break your lineup tonight. He has just as good of a chance at scoring 60 fantasy points, as he does scoring 30 fantasy points. The Spurs have always been able to take away an opponent’s best player. The Spurs have struggled to contain opposing centers this season, but I still see Cousins as a better tournament play than a cash game play. The second half of a back-to-back road games, against the Spurs, is not a time where I want to pay $10k for a player.
San Antonio
The Spurs are looking for their third win in a row tonight. They need to pick it up if they want to have any chance at home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. They should be able to pick up a win tonight. They are 10-point favorites against the Kings at home. As usual with the Spurs, the veterans are risky options in cash games.
Opponent Breakdown (Sacramento)
Record: 21-37
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.1 (Rank: 26)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 27
Rebounding Differential Rank: 1
Elite Plays
Danny Green (FD: $5300, DK: $4200 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 17.7)
Green and cash games are like cats and dogs, they usually don’t get along. But every once in a while, there are strange circumstances where they do. Tonight may be one of those nights. The Kings are ranked dead last against shooting guards this season and Green is listed as a Blue Light special on aisle DraftKings. He only needs 21 fantasy points to reach value at a price of $4,200.
Secondary Plays
Kawhi Leonard (FD: $7200, DK: $7400 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 22.5)
Leonard has finally found his shot. He has been terrific in his last three games, averaging 39 fantasy points per contest, one of which came against this same Kings’ team. He is a strong play at small forward tonight, especially on a site like FanDuel where we have to roster two players at the position.
Milwaukee at Golden State – 10:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Golden State -13.5, 203.5 Over/Under
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Middleton-Antetokounmpo-Ilyasova-Pachulia
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Bogut
| Milwaukee | Golden State | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 203 |  | Vegas Total | 203 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 13.50 | Vegas Sprd | -13.50 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95 | Team Proj. | 108.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.38 | Team Pace | 100.97 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Michael Carter-Williams | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Ersan Ilyasova | Zaza Pachulia | Proj Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Andrew Bogut | |
| Opp. Season | 6 | 7 | 15 | 16 | 19 | Opp. Season | 1 | 12 | 20 | 11 | 21 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 5 | 2 | 28 | 12 | 13 | Opp. Last 7 | 11 | 22 | 3 | 15 | 15 | |
Milwaukee
The Bucks did the unthinkable and lost to the Denver Nuggets last night. Their punishment is having to travel to Oakland to take on the best team in the NBA. The Warriors own a 24-2 record at home and are listed as 13.5-point favorites tonight against the Bucks. This is not a matchup that we should heavily target tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Golden State)
Record: 46-12
Points Allowed Per Game: 100 (Rank: 18)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 1
Rebounding Differential Rank: 15
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Giannis Antetokounmpo (FD: $6400, DK: $7100 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 19.5)
The Greek Alphabet is the one Bucks’ player that is on my radar tonight. He is still sitting at a very affordable price of $6,400 on FanDuel and he’s still listed as a shooting guard, both of which I don’t mind. He is coming off of a solid ten-game stretch, where he averaged 29.8 fantasy points per contest.
Golden State
The Warriors are one of my least favorite teams to target tonight. They are double-digit favorites (blowout factor), they are facing a defensive-minded Bucks’ team, and their coach has hinted that he wants to get his starters some rest. This combination of those three factors makes me want to steer clear of the Warriors tonight. Stephen Curry may be the one exception, as I always like to target him in tournaments on nights where he is going to have a low ownership percentage.
Opponent Breakdown (Milwaukee)
Record: 32-28
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.5 (Rank: 3)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 2
Rebounding Differential Rank: 24
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Portland at L.A. Clippers – 10:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – L.A. Clippers -1.5, 205.5 Over/Under
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Redick-Hamilton-Hawes-Jordan
| Portland | L.A. Clippers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | 205 | ||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 1.5 | Vegas Sprd | -1.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.0 | Team Proj. | 103.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.57 | Team Pace | 96.8 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Damian Lillard | Wesley Matthews | Nicolas Batum | LaMarcus Aldridge | Robin Lopez | Proj Starter | Chris Paul | J.J. Redick | Jordan Hamilton | Spencer Hawes | DeAndre Jordan | |
| Opp. Season | 3 | 14 | 26 | 17 | 16 | Opp. Season | 26 | 19 | 12 | 2 | 6 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 20 | 12 | 25 | 8 | Opp. Last 7 | 27 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 2 | |
Portland
The Blazers have won three in a row and seven of their last ten games. They are currently locked into the fourth-seed in the Western Conference, but a loss against the Clippers tonight would drop them down to the fifth-seed. Tonight’s game is expected to be close and high-scoring, two characteristics of a game that we love to see in daily fantasy. The Clippers play at a very quick pace and are ranked 19th in points allowed per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Clippers)
Record: 40-21
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.4 (Rank: 19)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 16
Rebounding Differential Rank: 15
Elite Plays
LaMarcus Aldridge (FD: $9800, DK: $9100 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 29.9)
Aldridge is the premier play at power forward tonight. His price is affordable and he draws a fantastic matchup against the Blake Griffin-less Clippers. Over the last three weeks, the Clippers have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards. Aldridge should be able to dominate the paint against Spencer Hawes and the Blazers will look to exploit his mismatch early and often.
Secondary Plays
Nicolas Batum (FD: $5600, DK: $5500 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 14.5)
Batum is the kind of player that could win someone a big tournament on a night like tonight. His ownership level is always low, even though he has a very high ceiling for a player at his price point. He is not the most consistent player, but he has 40-fantasy point type of upside. He has the ability to fill up all areas of the stat sheet and the Clippers have struggled to contain opposing wing players this season.
L.A. Clippers
The Clippers have also won three in a row and seven of their last ten games. They have done an incredible job of keeping pace in the Western Conference without Blake Griffin in the lineup. They have a tough test tonight against the Blazers. The Clippers are 1.5-point favorites in a game that features a total of 205 points. The matchup doesn’t look great on paper though, as the Blazers are ranked 9th in points allowed per game and 12th in rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Portland)
Record: 39-19
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.4 (Rank: 9)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 6
Rebounding Differential Rank: 12
Elite Plays
Chris Paul (FD: $10300, DK: $10200 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 22.8)
Without Blake Griffin in the lineup, Paul has basically been a lock for 45+ fantasy points every night. He has taken over offensively and it has shown in his fantasy production. In addition to an increased usage in the offense, Paul also has a great track record against elite point guards. He loves to face top-notch competition and Damian Lillard is just that.
Secondary Plays
DeAndre Jordan (FD: $9700, DK: $9000 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 12.9)
Jordan’s price has gotten to a point where he is a tough target for cash games. If he were to get into foul trouble or have an off night, he could easily fall 20 points shy of value expectations. He does deserve consideration in tournaments though, as he has has topped the 55-fantasy point mark four times in his last nine games.