NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, March 4th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
Subscribe to our daily newsletter and lineup alerts for the most up-to-date DFS NBA news.
New York at Indiana – 7:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – New York -13.5, 189 Over/Under
- New York Proj. Starters – Galloway-Hardaway-Early-Amundson-Bargnani
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Miles-Hill-West-Hibbert
| New York | Indiana | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | 189 | ||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | Vegas Sprd | 13.5 | ||||||||||
| Team Proj. | Team Proj. | 87.8 | ||||||||||
| Team Pace | 93.12 | Team Pace | 95.63 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Langston Galloway | Tim Hardaway Jr. | Cleanthony Early | Louis Amundson | Andrea Bargnani | Proj Starter | George Hill | C.J. Miles | Solomon Hill | David West | Roy Hibbert | |
| Opp. Season | 14 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 11 | Opp. Season | 22 | 21 | 2 | 6 | 22 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 22 | 18 | 2 | 18 | 9 | Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 7 | 22 | 19 | 18 | |
New York
The Knicks will look to bounce back after getting slaughtered by the Kings last night at home. They just don’t have enough talent to keep up with most NBA teams. They have another tough matchup ahead of them tonight, as they head to Indiana to take on the Pacers. The Knicks are listed as 13-point underdogs with their team total set at only 88.5 points.
Opponent Breakdown (Indiana)
Record: 25-34
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.7 (Rank: 5)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 11
Rebounding Differential Rank: 7
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Andrea Bargnani (FD: $4600, DK: $4500 / MPG: 22 / Usage Rate: 25.3)
Bargnani is the only Knicks’ player that is on my radar tonight. He let a lot of people down last night against the Kings, which means his ownership level will likely be very low tonight. He’s worth a look in tournaments, as he has scored at least 21 fantasy points in four of his last five games.
Indiana
The Pacers have won eight of their last ten games and are quickly making up ground in a race for the last two spots in the Eastern Conference playoff picture. They should be able to pick up an easy win tonight against the Knicks in a game where they are double-digit favorites at home. This game has a high risk of a blowout though, which really hurts the appeal of the Pacers.
Opponent Breakdown (New York)
Record: 12-47
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.3 (Rank: 24)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 28
Rebounding Differential Rank: 28
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
George Hill (FD: $6300, DK: $6000 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 25.7)
Hill has played extremely well over his last three games, averaging 39 fantasy points in 32 minutes per contest. His minutes are trending upward too, as he has played at least 32 minutes in back-to-back games. He draws a favorable matchup against the Knicks tonight, but again, this game could end up being over by the end of the third quarter.
Rodney Stuckey (FD: $5300, DK: $5400 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 22.8)
Stuckey wouldn’t be hurt as bad as the Pacers’ starters if this game does turn into a blowout. He comes off the bench and will see garbage time every now and then. Stuckey has really embraced his role coming off the bench and he has scored at least 29 fantasy points in four of his last five games.
Phoenix at Orlando – 7:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Phoenix -4, 203 Over/Under
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Bledsoe-Knight-Tucker-Morris-Len
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Payton-Oladipo-Harris-Frye-Vucevic
| Phoenix | Orlando | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 203 |  | Vegas Total | 203 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -4.0 | Vegas Sprd | 4.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 103.5 | Team Proj. | 99.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.48 | Team Pace | 95.72 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Eric Bledsoe | Brandon Knight | P.J. Tucker | Markieff Morris | Alex Len | Proj Starter | Elfrid Payton | Victor Oladipo | Tobias Harris | Channing Frye | Nikola Vucevic | |
| Opp. Season | 24 | 4 | 29 | 22 | 28 | Opp. Season | 20 | 24 | 28 | 8 | 20 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 8 | 25 | Opp. Last 7 | ||||||
Phoenix
The Suns have lost two games in a row and seven of their last ten. They are quickly falling out of the playoff picture in the Western Conference. Tonight they head to Orlando to take on a Magic team that has also struggled recently. The Suns are listed as 4.5-point favorites in a game that features a total of 203 points. This matchup is not as good as it would have been a month ago, as the Magic have really made an effort to slow their pace of play.
Opponent Breakdown (Orlando)
Record: 19-42
Points Allowed Per Game: 101 (Rank: 23)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 24
Rebounding Differential Rank: 26
Elite Plays
Alex Len (FD: $5200, DK: $5600 / MPG: 22 / Usage Rate: 13.4)
Len is one of the top plays at center tonight. His minutes are trending upward, which is a very positive sign. He has played at least 32 minutes in five of his last seven games. During that stretch, he has averaged 27.8 fantasy points per game. He should have another quality outing tonight against the Magic, who are ranked 28th against centers and 26th in rebounding differential this season.
Secondary Plays
P.J. Tucker (FD: $5600, DK: $5700 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 12.9)
Tucker has scored at least 21 fantasy points in nine of his last ten games. The one game where he failed to reach that mark was against the Spurs, who just so happen to be ranked first against small forwards this season. The Magic have not been nearly as stingy against the position, as they have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards this season.
Orlando
The Magic have lost six of their last ten games and they are no longer playing at the quick pace that made them everyone’s favorite team to see on the schedule. In fact, over the last three weeks, the Magic have played at the third-slowest pace of any team in the NBA. The good news is that they are facing a fast-paced team in the Suns tonight. The Suns present a very favorable matchup, as they are ranked 28th in points allowed per game and 25th in rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Phoenix)
Record: 31-30
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.2 (Rank: 28)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 19
Rebounding Differential Rank: 25
Elite Plays
Tobias Harris (FD: $6500, DK: $6300 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 23.2)
Tonight is a great opportunity to buy low on Harris. He has been dealing with some nagging injuries, but he has played well over his last two games, averaging 28 fantasy points in 36 minutes per contest. He should see minutes in the upper 30’s again tonight against the Suns, who have allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards this season.
Secondary Plays
Nikola Vucevic (FD: $8500, DK: $8700 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 25.8)
Vucevic is one of my favorite tournament plays tonight. He typically feasts on teams that don’t rebound well and the Suns are ranked 25th in rebounding differential this season. The Suns have been much better against centers recently, but they are still ranked 20th against the position on the season. Vucevic is $2,400 cheaper than Cousins on FanDuel and has similar upside.
Utah at Boston – 7:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Boston -1, 193 Over/Under
- Utah Proj. Starters – Exum-Ingles-Hayward-Favors-Gobert
- Boston Proj. Starters – Smart-Bradley-Turner-Bass-Zeller
| Utah | Boston | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 193 |  | Vegas Total | 193 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 1.0 | Vegas Sprd | -1.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 96.0 | Team Proj. | 97.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 92.90 | Team Pace | 98.81 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Dante Exum | Joe Ingles | Gordon Hayward | Derrick Favors | Rudy Gobert | Proj Starter | Marcus Smart | Avery Bradley | Evan Turner | Brandon Bass | Tyler Zeller | |
| Opp. Season | 19 | 2 | 25 | 25 | 23 | Opp. Season | 8 | 15 | 11 | 12 | 1 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 10 | 13 | 24 | 17 | 21 | Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 14 | 3 | |
Utah
The Jazz have won three games in a row and seven of their last ten. The Enes Kanter trade has really worked in terms of team chemistry. The trade has also opened up big minutes for Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert, who are both playing their best basketball of the season. The Jazz draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Celtics, who play at a very quick pace. The Celtics are also ranked 25th in points allowed per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Boston)
Record: 23-35
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.8 (Rank: 25)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Rebounding Differential Rank: 17
Elite Plays
Derrick Favors (FD: $7600, DK: $7400 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 23)
Favors has flourished since the Enes Kanter trade. It has solidified his minutes in the frontcourt and he is playing with a ton of confidence. Favors has scored at least 35 fantasy points in five of his last six games. He has a great chance to reach that mark again tonight against a Celtics’ frontcourt that is both under-sized and under-manned. Favors is one of, if not the top play at power forward tonight.
Secondary Plays
Rudy Gobert (FD: $7200, DK: $6700 / MPG: 23 / Usage Rate: 13.5)
Gobert showed last night that he is matchup-proof. He doesn’t rely on scoring for most of his fantasy production. He is one of the best rebounders and shot blockers in the NBA. That bodes well for his matchup against the Celtics tonight, who are very under-sized in the frontcourt. Gobert is a borderline elite play on DraftKings ($6,700) and a strong secondary play on FanDuel ($7,200).
Boston
After I talked up how well the Celtics were playing as a team yesterday, they went out and got crushed by the Cavaliers in Cleveland. They will look to bounce back at home tonight against the Jazz. Vegas has the Celtics listed as 2-point favorites, but this will be a pace-down game for Boston. The Jazz play at the second-slowest pace and have held their opponents to the fourth-fewest points per game this season. There are better matchups to exploit tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Utah)
Record: 24-35
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.6 (Rank: 4)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 23
Rebounding Differential Rank: 3
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Charlotte at Brooklyn – 7:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Brooklyn -5.5, 191 Over/Under
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Williams-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-Zeller-Jefferson
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Brown-Anderson-Johnson-Plumlee
| Charlotte | Brooklyn | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 191 |  | Vegas Total | 191 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.5 | Vegas Sprd | -5.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 92.8 | Team Proj. | 98.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.25 | Team Pace | 94.50 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Mo Williams | Gerald Henderson | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Cody Zeller | Al Jefferson | Proj Starter | Deron Williams | Markel Brown | Alan Anderson | Joe Johnson | Mason Plumlee | |
| Opp. Season | 15 | 26 | 9 | 26 | 15 | Opp. Season | 7 | 18 | 3 | 20 | 5 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 15 | 14 | 20 | 24 | 26 | Opp. Last 7 | 13 | 3 | 13 | 28 | 17 | |
Charlotte
The Hornets picked up a win over the Lakers last night, but they have still lost six of their last ten games. If they are going to make a push for the playoffs, they need to start stringing together some wins. They have a great chance to gain ground in the Eastern Conference tonight with a win over the eighth-seeded Nets. Overall, this is a mediocre matchup at best though. The Nets play at a snail’s pace and have been average defensively this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Brooklyn)
Record: 25-33
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.4 (Rank: 14)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 21
Rebounding Differential Rank: 23
Elite Plays
Mo Williams (FD: $6200, DK: $7000 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 23.2)
Despite the mediocre matchup, Williams is an elite play once again. He has been on an absolute tear since joining the Hornets, averaging 37.6 fantasy points over his last six games. Williams has a high usage rate in the offense and he has averaged 36 minutes per game since joining the team. He should continue his strong play tonight against Deron Williams and the Nets.
Secondary Plays
Al Jefferson (FD: $8200, DK: $7800 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 26.5)
Jefferson has also played well recently, averaging 37.8 fantasy points over his last eight games. It’s basically been a one-two punch for the Hornets and that trend should continue tonight against the Nets, who have really struggled to contain opposing centers over the last couple of weeks.
Brooklyn
The Nets are a difficult team to predict right now. They have a very small starting lineup, yet Brook Lopez and Thaddeus Young both see big minutes off the bench. They have two talented point guards that eat into each other’s fantasy production. And even worse, they draw a bad matchup against the Hornets, who are ranked seventh in points allowed per game this season. With 12 other games on the schedule, the Nets can safely be avoided tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Charlotte)
Record: 25-33
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.9 (Rank: 7)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 8
Rebounding Differential Rank: 13
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Cleveland at Toronto – 7:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Cleveland -4.5, 203 Over/Under
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Smith-James-Love-Mozgov
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Vasquez-DeRozan-Johnson-Johnson-Valanciunas
| Cleveland | Toronto | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 203 |  | Vegas Total | 203 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -4.5 | Vegas Sprd | 4.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 103.8 | Team Proj. | 99.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.96 | Team Pace | 95.93 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kyrie Irving | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Timofey Mozgov | Proj Starter | Greivis Vasquez | DeMar DeRozan | James Johnson | Amir Johnson | Jonas Valanciunas | |
| Opp. Season | 21 | 11 | 24 | 7 | 10 | Opp. Season | 11 | 23 | 23 | 15 | 13 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 24 | 27 | 26 | 7 | 7 | Opp. Last 7 | 19 | 26 | 18 | 4 | 16 | |
Cleveland
The Cavaliers rolled over the Celtics at home last night. The starters all played less than 30 minutes, so they should have fresh legs for tonight’s game against the Raptors. This should be a fun one to watch, as both of these teams are fighting for playoff positioning in the Eastern Conference. Vegas has the Cavaliers listed as 4.5-point favorites in a game that features a total of 203 points.
Opponent Breakdown (Toronto)
Record: 38-22
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.6 (Rank: 21)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 17
Rebounding Differential Rank: 18
Elite Plays
LeBron James (FD: $11100, DK: $10400 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 33.4)
James is the only Cavaliers’ player on my radar tonight. Kyrie Irving is in a decent spot, but there are ten other point guards that I’d rather target tonight. James, on the other hand, is one of the top overall plays at any position. He has been incredibly efficient over his last seven games, averaging 1.49 fantasy points per minute. Assuming tonight’s game stays close, James could push for close to 40 minutes against the Raptors. See what I’m getting at here?
Secondary Plays
None
Toronto
There are a few reports that suggest that the Raptors are going to hold Kyle Lowry out for at least another game. If that’s the case, Greivis Vasquez and Lou Williams will continue to split the point guard minutes. The Raptors could use Lowry tonight though, as they have a tough test against the red-hot Cavaliers. The Cavaliers have held their opponents to the fifth-fewest points per game over the last three weeks.
Opponent Breakdown (Cleveland)
Record: 38-24
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.4 (Rank: 11)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 21
Rebounding Differential Rank: 8
Elite Plays
DeMar DeRozan (FD: $7200, DK: $7200 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 28)
DeRozan is coming off of his best game of the season. Granted, it was against the Sixers, but it was still an impressive showing. He finished the game with 35 points, 9 rebounds, and 5 assists. If Kyle Lowry is unable to play again tonight, DeRozan will continue to be the primary play-maker in the Raptors’ offense. He is an elite play tonight at shooting guard.
Secondary Plays
Lou Williams (FD: $5300, DK: $4800 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 26.7)
If Kyle Lowry is forced from tonight’s game, Williams will see an uptick in both minutes and production. He has played well in Lowry’s absence over the last two games, scoring 30 and 34 fantasy points, respectively. His price has come up a bit, which should scare a lot of people off of him tonight. He’s a perfect high-upside, contrarian play for tournaments.
James Johnson (FD: $4300, DK: $4700 / MPG: 21 / Usage Rate: 16.3)
Is Johnson reliable? Nope, but he does have terrific upside for a player at his price point. He’s also going to be tasked with defending LeBron James, which means he should see extended minutes in tonight’s game. The last time Johnson was matched up against a superstar (James Harden), he played 35 minutes and scored 47 fantasy points. Like his teammate Williams, Johnson is a high ceiling target for tournaments.