NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, March 4th - Page Two
Detroit at New Orleans – 8:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – New Orleans -3, 195 Over/Under
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Jackson-Caldwell-Pope-Prince-Monroe-Drummond
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Evans-Gordon-Pondexter-Cunningham-Asik
| Detroit | New Orleans | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 195 |  | Vegas Total | 195 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.0 | Vegas Sprd | -3.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 96.00 | Team Proj. | 99.00 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.59 | Team Pace | 93.89 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Reggie Jackson | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Tayshaun Prince | Greg Monroe | Andre Drummond | Proj Starter | Tyreke Evans | Eric Gordon | Quincy Pondexter | Dante Cunningham | Omer Asik | |
| Opp. Season | 16 | 17 | 10 | 9 | 8 | Opp. Season | 4 | 13 | 22 | 27 | 29 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 24 | 11 | 10 | 14 | Opp. Last 7 | 9 | 16 | 19 | 27 | 22 | |
Detroit
The Pistons have lost six of their last ten games and are now two and a half games out of the eighth and final spot in the Eastern Conference playoff picture. They need to string together some wins if they are going to have a chance at the playoffs. Tonight they head to New Orleans to take on a Pelicans’ team that could be without Anthony Davis. This isn’t the best matchup out there tonight, as the Pelicans have played at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA over the last three weeks.
Opponent Breakdown (New Orleans)
Record: 32-28
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.4 (Rank: 14)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 26
Rebounding Differential Rank: 5
Elite Plays
Reggie Jackson (FD: $6100, DK: $6200 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 23.3)
Jackson has been like the beer train in the Coors Light commercials. Once he showed up, everything turned to ice. He is shooting a paltry 33% (23/69) from the field in his first four games with the team. It’s only a matter of time before he starts hitting shots, though, and it’s promising to see him averaging 17 shot attempts per game. Tonight is a great opportunity to buy low on the ball-dominant point guard. He draws a favorable matchup against Tyreke Evans and the Pelicans.
Secondary Plays
None
New Orleans
The Pelicans are hoping to have Anthony Davis back for tonight’s game against the Pistons. He is currently listed as a game-time decision, so like usual, we are going to have to constantly check out Twitter feed for an update on his status closer to tip-off. If Davis does suit up, this may be a good night to avoid the Pelicans altogether. Davis should be able to pick up right where he left off, but the injury leaves him as a very risky fantasy option.
Opponent Breakdown (Detroit)
Record: 23-36
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.8 (Rank: 16)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 18
Rebounding Differential Rank: 9
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Tyreke Evans (FD: $8300, DK: $7700) and Eric Gordon (FD: $6300, DK: $6000) would both see a boost if Anthony Davis is forced to sit out tonight’s game. Both would be secondary options at their respective positions tonight against the Pistons.
Memphis at Houston – 8:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Houston -3.5, 197 Over/Under
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Green-Randolph-Gasol
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Ariza-Jones-Motiejunas
| Memphis | Houston | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 197 |  | Vegas Total | 197 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.50 | Vegas Sprd | -3.50 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 96.75 | Team Proj. | 100.25 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.3 | Team Pace | 99.02 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Mike Conley | Courtney Lee | Jeff Green | Zach Randolph | Marc Gasol | Proj Starter | Patrick Beverley | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Terrence Jones | Donatas Motiejunas | |
| Opp. Season | 2 | 22 | 21 | 19 | 18 | Opp. Season | 5 | 10 | 17 | 3 | 2 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 20 | 1 | 21 | 21 | 20 | Opp. Last 7 | 21 | 15 | 27 | 3 | 23 | |
Memphis
Even as a Jazz fan, I didn’t think the Jazz could pull off the upset against the short-handed Grizzlies last night. It was a rare loss at home for Memphis and they are in danger of losing back-to-back games, as they draw a tough matchup against the Rockets in Houston. Zach Randolph is expected to be back in the lineup tonight, but that doesn’t change a whole lot in the daily fantasy basketball landscape.
Opponent Breakdown (Houston)
Record: 41-19
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.8 (Rank: 16)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 3
Rebounding Differential Rank: 11
Elite Plays
Marc Gasol (FD: $7600, DK: $7500 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 24.8)
Gasol is a very strong play tonight against the Rockets. He has a very high floor, he’s priced affordably on both FanDuel and DraftKings, and the Rockets don’t have anyone that can match up against him. Gasol should play around 35 minutes and average close to a fantasy point per minute. He’s a safe cash game play tonight.
Secondary Plays
None
Houston
After the first half of last night’s game against the Hawks, I was thinking “who needs James Harden anyway?” Oh yes, that’s right, the Rockets do. The Rockets couldn’t buy a bucket in the fourth-quarter and ended up losing to the Hawks after having a huge lead for most of the game. James Harden will return from his suspension tonight against the Grizzlies, but this is not a great matchup for the Rockets. The Grizzlies have held their opponents to the fewest points per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Memphis)
Record: 42-17
Points Allowed Per Game: 95.6 (Rank: 1)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 7
Rebounding Differential Rank: 13
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
James Harden (FD: $11000, DK: $10500 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 31)
It would be unwise not to at least mention the MVP candidate. Harden is about as matchup-proof as they come and he should be ready to get back at it tonight, after being suspended for last night’s game against the Hawks. I’m not as concerned about the matchup as I am about the projected pace of the game. It will be tough for Harden to pay off his expensive salary tonight.
L.A. Lakers at Miami – 8:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Miami -8.5, 199 Over/Under
- L.A. Lakers Proj. Starters – Clarkson-Ellington-Kelly-Boozer-Sacre
- Miami Proj. Starters – Dragic-Wade-Deng-Haslem-Whiteside
| L.A. Lakers | Miami | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 199 |  | Vegas Total | 199 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 8.5 | Vegas Sprd | -8.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.3 | Team Proj. | 103.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.79 | Team Pace | 92.52 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jordan Clarkson | Wayne Ellington | Ryan Kelly | Carlos Boozer | Robert Sacre | Proj Starter | Goran Dragic | Dwyane Wade | Luol Deng | Udonis Haslem | Hassan Whiteside | |
| Opp. Season | 9 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 9 | Opp. Season | 30 | 20 | 19 | 14 | 25 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 3 | 12 | 14 | 9 | 19 | Opp. Last 7 | 2 | 11 | 10 | 22 | 28 | |
L.A. Lakers
The Lakers put up a good fight against the Hornets last night, but they eventually fell short for their seventh loss in their last ten games. They now have to travel to Miami to take on the Heat on the tail end of a back-to-back. The Heat have picked up their pace of play recently, but they still aren’t a team that we should go out of our way to target players against. We can safely avoid all Lakers in cash games tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Miami)
Record: 26-33
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.8 (Rank: 6)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 19
Rebounding Differential Rank: 22
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Jeremy Lin (FD: $5200, DK: $4100 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 20.8)
It’s only a matter of time before Lin comes back down to Earth, but he’s worth mentioning, as he has been on fire over his last three games. During that stretch, he has averaged 39.4 fantasy points in 31 minutes per game. His price on DraftKings is sitting at a very playable $4,100 tonight, making him an appealing tournament play.
Miami
The Heat are playing well enough to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference, but they will likely be stuck with the seventh or eighth seed. The Heat are listed as 8.5-point favorites tonight against the Lakers in a game that features a total of 199 points. The Lakers have allowed more points per game than any other team in the NBA this season and the Heat are projected to score 104 points tonight, which is 10 points higher than their season average.
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Lakers)
Record: 16-43
Points Allowed Per Game: 106 (Rank: 30)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 29
Rebounding Differential Rank: 20
Elite Plays
Dwyane Wade (FD: $7200, DK: $7100 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 34)
Wade has officially ended his mini-slump by scoring at least 34 fantasy points in each of his last two outings. He should keep it going tonight against the Lakers, who own the worst defense in the entire NBA. Wade has the ability to fill up all areas of the stat sheet and he has one of the highest usage rates of any player in the league. He should be in for another solid outing against a Lakers’ team that is 20th against shooting guards this season.
Secondary Plays
Hassan Whiteside (FD: $8100, DK: $8300 / MPG: 22 / Usage Rate: 20.2)
There haven’t been many nights where Whiteside hasn’t been listed as an elite play, but it’s hard to justify paying that price in cash games. He does draw a terrific matchup against the Lakers and he does have incredible upside, but I see him more as a tournament play tonight.
Denver at Minnesota – 8:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Minnesota -5.5, 207 Over/Under
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Foye-Gallinari-Chandler-Faried
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Wiggins-Garnett-Dieng
| Denver | Minnesota | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 207 |  | Vegas Total | 207 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.5 | Vegas Sprd | -5.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.8 | Team Proj. | 106.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.34 | Team Pace | 97.56 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ty Lawson | Randy Foye | Danilo Gallinari | Wilson Chandler | Kenneth Faried | Proj Starter | Ricky Rubio | Kevin Martin | Andrew Wiggins | Kevin Garnett | Gorgui Dieng | |
| Opp. Season | 28 | 25 | 30 | 28 | 27 | Opp. Season | 18 | 28 | 27 | 30 | 24 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 6 | 12 | Opp. Last 7 | 18 | 28 | 25 | 20 | 24 | |
Denver
After firing Brian Shaw, the Nuggets went out and picked up a big win over the Bucks at home last night. They will look to make it two in a row tonight against the Wolves in Minnesota. This game features a total of 207 points and is projected to be one of the fastest-paced games on the schedule tonight. While I love the matchup against the Wolves, the Nuggets have been a little too inconsistent to warrant the elite play tag.
Opponent Breakdown (Minnesota)
Record: 13-46
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.6 (Rank: 29)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 30
Rebounding Differential Rank: 21
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Ty Lawson (FD: $7700, DK: $7200 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 20.7)
Lawson put up 16 points and 10 assists last night against the Bucks. It was his best game in more than a week. His inconsistent play recently has brought his price way down on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He’s an appealing tournament play tonight in what should be a fast-paced, high-scoring game against the Wolves.
Kenneth Faried (FD: $5800, DK: $5100 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 19.3)
Brian Shaw’s absence may be just what Faried needed to release his inner “Manimal.” He played 32 minutes against the Bucks last night and he scored 34 fantasy points. Faried is still too risky to use in cash games, but he provides great upside at his price point. He also draws a terrific matchup against the Wolves, who are ranked 28th against power forwards and 27th against centers this season.
Minnesota
The Wolves are expected to have Kevin Martin back in the lineup tonight. Nikola Pekovic said that he will try to play, but he is still listed as questionable. The Wolves draw a fantastic matchup against the Nuggets, who play at a fast pace and rarely play defense. The Nuggets have allowed the fifth-most points per game this season and are ranked below average against every position in terms of DvP.
Opponent Breakdown (Denver)
Record: 21-39
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.1 (Rank: 26)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 25
Rebounding Differential Rank: 18
Elite Plays
Ricky Rubio (FD: $8300, DK: $7800 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 20.9)
Anyone remember Hook? This is Ricky’s version of the chant Rubio, Rubio, Rubi-OOOOOOO!
Much like Ice Cube, Rubio had a “Good Day” on Monday, as he messed around and got a triple-double against the Clippers. He finished the game with 18 points, 12 rebounds, and 11 assists on his way to a 49-fantasy point outing. He has now scored at least 38 fantasy points in six of his last seven games. He should have another monster outing in store for us tonight, as he faces a Nuggets’ defense that is ranked 22nd against point guards this season.
Andrew Wiggins (FD: $6700, DK: $6700 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 21.8)
Even with Kevin Martin back in the lineup, Wiggins is still an elite play tonight. He will see see close to 40 minutes against one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA. Wiggins has scored at least 28 fantasy points in seven of his last eight games. I see that as his floor tonight, with a ceiling that is much, much higher.
Secondary Plays
Gorgui Dieng (FD: $6100, DK: $5300 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 15.2)
If Nikola Pekovic is unable to play tonight, Dieng would draw the start and see all of the minutes that he could handle. He started for the injured Pek on Monday night and played 39 minutes, scoring 27 fantasy points. If he draws the start again tonight, he should easily reach value against the Nuggets’ weak frontcourt.
Philadelphia at Oklahoma City – 8:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -15, 203 Over/Under
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Canaan-Richardson-Mbah a Moute-Noel-Sims
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Roberson-Singler-Ibaka-Kanter
| Philadelphia | Oklahoma City | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 203 |  | Vegas Total | 203 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 15.0 | Vegas Sprd | -15.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 94.0 | Team Proj. | 109.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.07 | Team Pace | 97.70 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Isaiah Canaan | Jason Richardson | Luc Mbah a Moute | Nerlens Noel | Henry Sims | Proj Starter | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Kyle Singler | Serge Ibaka | Enes Kanter | |
| Opp. Season | 29 | 5 | 14 | 24 | 4 | Opp. Season | 25 | 29 | 18 | 29 | 30 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 25 | 10 | 6 | 26 | 6 | Opp. Last 7 | 23 | 25 | 5 | 16 | 11 | |
Philadelphia
The Sixers have lost eight of their last ten games and have nothing to play for at this point in the season. Their rotation has been deep and inconsistent recently and they have had trouble staying competitive. Tonight’s game against the Thunder has blowout written all over it, as the Sixers are 15-point underdogs. With such a large slate of games on tap tonight, there is no reason to take a risk on any of the Sixers’ players.
Opponent Breakdown (Oklahoma City)
Record: 33-27
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.1 (Rank: 13)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 10
Rebounding Differential Rank: 2
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Oklahoma City
The Thunder are expected to have Russell Westbrook back in the lineup tonight against the Sixers. His presence really puts a damper on the fantasy appeal of the Thunder, as this game is looking like it will be over by halftime. The matchup is certainly a favorable one, but I’m not sure the Sixers can keep this one within striking distance.
Opponent Breakdown (Philadelphia)
Record: 13-47
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.8 (Rank: 22)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 13
Rebounding Differential Rank: 29
Elite Plays
Russell Westbrook (FD: $12000, DK: $11500 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 36.9)
Westbrook has more upside than any other player on the schedule tonight. He has posted three straight triple-doubles and he should be able to pick up right where he left off. While I expect him to dominate once again, it’s going to be tough for him to reach value if he only plays three quarters. He’s certainly in play for cash games, but I will be using him strictly as a GPP play.
Secondary Plays
Serge Ibaka (FD: $8200, DK: $8000) and Enes Kanter (FD: $6000, DK: $5900) are strong plays against the second-worst rebounding team in the NBA. Both are risky cash game options though, with the potential for a blowout being so high.