NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, May 2nd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-05-03 00:56:01

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

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Legend & FAQ

Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets – 8:00 PM ET

Utah Jazz							Houston Rockets
			Vegas Total		204.5					Vegas Total		204.5
			Vegas Spread		11.0					Vegas Spread		-11.0
			Implied Team Total		96.8					Implied Team Total		107.8
			Pace Projection +/-		0.1					Pace Projection +/-		-1.8
Projected Starters	Donovan Mitchell	Joe Ingles	Royce O’Neale	Derrick Favors	Rudy Gobert		Projected Starters	Chris Paul	James Harden	Trevor Ariza	P.J. Tucker	Clint Capela
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	6	11	10	6	17		DvP	13	1	4	2	7
DRPM Rat.	3	16	10	8	4		DRPM Rat.	6	6	1	10	1

Utah Jazz

I really wish the sites would bring back the two-day slates. I know that FanDuel offers two-day contests, but the guaranteed prize pools pale in comparison to those for the single-game slate. I’m not trying to harp on the sites, but why not offer both? Anyway, the Jazz will be without Ricky Rubio again tonight, as they square off against the Rockets in Game 2. They had no answer for James Harden in Game 1, but I don’t expect him to shoot 58% from the three-point line the entire series. Utah comes into tonight’s game as 11-point underdogs with an implied total of 96.8 points.

The betting markets aren’t giving the Jazz much of a chance tonight, but I’m expecting a competitive game. This is not a team that is going to throw in the towel after a single loss. The loss of Rubio hurts, but Donovan Mitchell is capable of taking over. He might be a rookie, but he certainly doesn’t play like one. He has scored at least 42 fantasy points in four of his last five games and is my second highest projected player in this game behind James Harden. The Jazz like to run their offense through Joe Ingles when Rubio is out of the lineup and after a slow start to the playoffs, he’s finally turned a corner. He’s scored at least 32 fantasy points in three of his last four games and nobody seems to have noticed. Royce O’Neale should draw another start for Rubio. He logged 29 minutes and scored 21 fantasy points in Game 1. He’s a nice source of value tonight, especially on DraftKings ($4,400).

Jae Crowder is the top point-per-dollar target on the board. He’s been thrust into a much larger role with Rubio out of the lineup. He played 33 minutes in Game 1 and scored 34 fantasy points. Anything close to that tonight and he’ll easily exceed value at his current price point. Alec Burks has scored 16 and 20 fantasy points in his last two games, but only logged 17 minutes in each outing. I hate relying on efficiency from role players, especially on the road. This is a difficult matchup for Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert. The Rockets like to push the pace and they shoot a ton of threes. This leads to longer rebounds and the pace of the game leads to fewer opportunities in the post. In four games against the Rockets this season (including Game 1), Favors has only averaged 17 fantasy points and Gobert has only averaged 25 fantasy points. I will likely wait until the series shifts to Utah before targeting the two bigs.

Notable Injuries

Ricky Rubio (Out)

Utah Jazz Offense

Points Per Game: 104.1 (19 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 96.8 (2 of 2)
Projected Point Differential: -7.3 (2 of 2)

Matchup vs. Houston Rockets

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.9 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.8 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.4 (12 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.7 (14 of 30)

Elite Plays – Donovan Mitchell, Joe Ingles, Jae Crowder, Royce O’Neale (DK)

Secondary Plays – Royce O’Neale (FD), Derrick Favors, Rudy Gobert, Alec Burks

Houston Rockets

The Rockets got out to a big lead in Game 1 and never looked back. The Jazz were a bit more competitive in the second half, but it still ended up being a 14-point win for Houston. Even though this is a difficult matchup on paper, the Rockets are still projected to score 107.8 points tonight. Even if we want to fade Houston due to the matchup, we don’t have any viable pivots in a single-game slate. We have a very narrow player pool to choose from, which will lead to a lot of overlap and a lot of duplicate lineups.

Chris Paul had a big first half in Game 1, but then put on the cruise control after that. He finished the game with 37 fantasy points in 32 minutes of action. He’s basically the odd man out tonight, as I want to get exposure to James Harden and Donovan Mitchell. It’s nearly impossible to play all three in the same lineup. Harden had 65 fantasy points in Game 1 and is the clear choice for the “MVP” roster spot on FanDuel. He’s also an elite play in all formats on DraftKings. Trevor Ariza is cheap on both sites and deserves a look in all formats. If you are looking to roll out a stars and scrubs lineup, P.J. Tucker logged 35 minutes and scored 26 fantasy points in Game 1. We shouldn’t expect a repeat performance, but the playing time is encouraging.

Eric Gordon and Lou Mbah a Moute were the only two bench players to log more than nine minutes in Game 1. Gordon offers a higher ceiling and a higher floor, but Mbah a Moute is only $2,100 on DraftKings if you are looking for a super deep punt. Clint Capela is one of the most inconsistent players in basketball. We saw this in the series against Minnesota. He came out in Game 1 and had a huge outing, then struggled in Games 2 and 3. On paper, a matchup against Rudy Gobert is far from ideal, but it’s not like we are relying on Capela to create his own shot. He gets his fantasy production from blocks, rebound, steals, and easy looks at the rim. It pains me to say it as a Jazz fan, but I prefer Capela over Gobert tonight.

Notable Injuries

None

Houston Rockets Offense

Points Per Game: 112.4 (2 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.8 (1 of 2)
Projected Point Differential: -4.7 (1 of 2)

Matchup vs. Utah Jazz

Points Allowed Per Game: 99.8 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.6 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 7.0 (3 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.8 (25 of 30)

Elite Plays – James Harden, Trevor Ariza, Clint Capela

Secondary Plays – Chris Paul, P.J. Tucker, Eric Gordon, Luc Mbah a Moute (DK)