NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, November 13th - Page 2
New York at Atlanta
New York
The Knicks are struggling right now and the last thing that the owner needs to do is to come out and guarantee a win tonight against the Hawks. The Knicks are spiraling, but I think that they will right the ship and start winning some games. They are too talented not to. The Knicks are without Tyson Chandler which gives big boost in minutes to Andrea Bargnani and it gives a fantasy boost to Carmelo Anthony. Anthony has to become more aggressive on defense and become one of their leading rebounders.
The matchup against the Hawks is a great one. The Hawks are giving up 102 points per game and their DvP rankings make it very easy for us to find the solid plays. The Hawks are ranked in the top 12 against both PF’s and Centers thanks to the defense of Paul Millsap and Al Horford.
Players to Target
- Carmelo Anthony – Let me backtrack a little, even though the Hawks are ranked 6th against opposing PF’s, Millsap is used to guarding actual PF’s, not dynamic SF’s. Melo is arguably the best scorer in basketball and should have a huge advantage over Millsap both off the dribble and in the post. Melo is too quick and should be able to score at will. I’ve already talked about him having to rebound more which only adds to his value. I have him ranked as a top 3 overall option tonight.
- J.R. Smith – Smith struggled in his first game this season, but Woodson is wasting no time throwing him into the fire. Smith will start tonight over Prigioni and I expect him to see 30+ minutes in this matchup. This should be an uptempo game and the open floor is where Smith is at his best.
Atlanta
The Hawks are in the top 10 in both pace of play (100) and points per game (104). Their offense has really been clicking thanks to the great play of both big men. That should continue tonight against the Knicks who will be very undersized. Al Horford and Paul Millsap will have a huge advantage over Bargnani and Anthony and the Hawks would be smart to exploit those matchups.
This is a great example of why you can’t make decisions solely based on DvP rankings. If you only looked at the rankings and didn’t read between the lines, all you would see is that the Knicks are good at defending PF’s and Centers. But now that Tyson Chandler is out of the lineup, everything changes. Now the Knicks weakness is their interior defense.
Players to Target
- Al Horford – Horford has been the most consistent fantasy center in the NBA this season. He continues to produce night in and night out and he has a very favorable matchup against Bargnani who doesn’t like to defend or rebound. Horford’s defensive rebounds may take a hit tonight as he will be chasing Bargnani around the perimeter, but I think he makes up for it on the offensive end.
Washington at San Antonio
Washington
The Wizards are playing in a back to back situation tonight and it will be interesting to see if they come out a little flat tonight. They are a very young team so I wouldn’t think that it should affect them too much, but San Antonio is a tough place to play. Vegas seems to be using this logic as well as the Spurs are favored by 11 in this matchup. My general rule is to not pay up for players when the Vegas line is in double digits. I think the risk of the studs sitting in the second half outweighs the reward so I will be fading John Wall tonight.
Even though I don’t love the matchup, player’s salaries can overcome that. Both Trevor Ariza and Nene Hilario are extremely underpriced on both FD and DK which puts them in play.
Players to Target
- Bradley Beal – The Spurs have been a very good defensive team this season ranking in the top 15 against every single position. That doesn’t bode too well for the Wizards tonight, but I do think there is some value in Beal. He is a great scorer and is still underpriced on a couple of different sites.
San Antonio
The Spurs have slowed their tempo this season, but they are still averaging 100 points per game which is right around the middle of the pack. Their opponent, the Wizards are giving up 107 points per game so this is a nice spot for the Spurs, especially the role players. Like I mentioned above, I don’t like paying for the studs in possible blowouts, so I will be fading Tony Parker and Tim Duncan, but I love the matchup for both Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard.
Players to Target
- Danny Green – Green is a bit cheaper than Leonard and actually has more upside thanks to his ability to catch fire. He’s scored over 35 FP’s in three of his last four games and is a great player to target when his shot is one. Once he gets that first three ball to fall, watchout because his confidence will be sky high after that.
- Kawhi Leonard – Leonard used to be the one Spurs players that received a ton of minutes, but it seems like Pop is treating him more like Parker and Duncan this season. His minutes have been down from last season, but he is still a very productive fantasy player. The Wizards are ranked 28th against SF’s and Leonard should play well in this spot.
L.A.Lakers at Denver
L.A.Lakers
The Lakers are coming off of a big win last night. I don’t know what it is about the Lakers, but they just refuse to be in close games. They are either getting blown out or blowing teams out. This kills the starter’s fantasy value and has been one of the reasons why Pau’s minutes have been down. The highlight last night was the play of Jordan Hill, he outplayed Anthony Davis and really took a firm grip on that starting PF position.
Steve Nash has already been ruled out of this game so as usual, Jodie Meeks will get the start at SG, Steve Blake will move over and start at PG, and Jordan Farmar will see an increase in minutes off the bench. All three of these players are in play tonight against a bad Denver defense.
Players to Target
- Jordan Hill – Hill posted season highs in minutes (26) and points (21) last night and added 11 rebounds on his way to a solid night. He should get the start again tonight against a weak interior defense of the Nuggets. His price has yet to reflect last night’s performance so now is the perfect time to buy low on Hill against the Nuggets who rank dead last against opposing PF’s.
Denver
This game has the feeling of a shootout. Both of these teams are in the top 10 in both pace of play and both teams are giving up over 100 points per game. It sounds like Wilson Chandler will make his debut tonight and while he won’t see enough minutes to make a fantasy impact, it’s important to note going forward as it will hurt the value of Foye, Hamilton, and Randolph.
It’s not surprising to see all of those blue numbers when looking at the Lakers DvP rankings. They are a typical D’Antoni team that takes quick shots and doesn’t play any defense. This would usually be a great spot for the Nuggets, but they just haven’t had many bright spots fantasy-wise this season. I think J.J. Hickson is in play if the price is right as well as Mr. Lawson.
Players to Target
- Ty Lawson – While I would like his matchup better if Steve Nash was playing, he still has a quickness advantage over both Steve Blake and Jordan Farmar. Lawson is by far the Nuggets best offensive player right now and he has to carry the load while Chandler and Gallinari work their way back from injuries. Lawson has a good upside tonight.
New Orleans at Utah
New Orleans
The Pelicans got smoked by the Lakers last night, not many teams can say that. The Pelicans really have one bright fantasy spot on their roster and then a few other players that make decent spots here and there. Anthony Davis had an awful game last night, but that’s more than acceptable with the way he has been playing. I expect him to have a nice bounce back game tonight, but I’m not sure that he is worth his price tag.
The Jazz are a team that can still play well at home. They will at least be competitive in this game and I can’t see either of these teams pulling away from the other. The Jazz have defended PG’s well and Jrue Holiday just hasn’t been a great fantasy option this season. He’s really only had two good games all season.
Players to Target
- Eric Gordon – Gordon has a decent matchup tonight against the Jazz and he finally looks healthy which is very promising. Gordon has quietly scored over 25 FP’s in 5 straight games and I think he tops that again tonight.
Utah
The Jazz are a victim of an awful quarter almost every night. They compete and keep the game close and then let teams go on 20-2 runs and they quickly find themselves out of the game. Hopefully that won’t happen tonight against the Pelicans. The Jazz are only two points underdogs and if they can keep it close, it would really help the fantasy value of Hayward and their bigs.
The Pelicans rank in the top half of the league against every position except for PF and that works out well because Favors was my favorite option anyway. I think Gordon Hayward and Enes Kanter carry some value if their price is right, but Favors is the play here.
Players to Target
- Derrick Favors – Favors had his biggest fantasy game of the season the other night and will look to build on that tonight. He will want to play well against Anthony Davis and even though Davis is a great shot blocker, opposing PF’s haven’t had any trouble putting up big stat lines against him. Favors is underpriced on a few sites and makes a good play tonight.
Phoenix at Portland
Phoenix
The Suns are playing at a quick pace (99), but are in the middle of pack in points scored per game at 100. They are facing a Blazers team that plays well at home. The Blazers DvP rankings really make my job easy. They are great at defending SG’s, SF’s, and PF’s and really struggle against PG’s and Centers. That leaves us with two Suns players that have favorable matchups.
Players to Target
- Eric Bledsoe – Even though Dragic will play tonight, his minutes are still being limited and Bledsoe will play most of his minutes at the point. He has shown his ability to post monster stat lines and the matchup lines up well for him.
- Miles Plumlee – Plumlee was a great value play when his price was at minimum salary, but now that his price has caught up to his production, it makes it a lot harder to pull the trigger. However, the matchup is there for him tonight against Lopez.
Portland
The Blazers play at a fairly slow pace (97), yet they are the seventh highest scoring team in the league. They are a team that plays good basketball at home and the matchup against the Suns lines up well for a few players.
Players to Target
- Damian Lillard – Lillard has been a great play this season at home and he is a lot cheaper than some of the top PG’s I like his matchup against the Suns who are ranked 20th against opposing PG’s.
- Nicolas Batum – Batum plays well at home and is one of the few players in the legaue that can get you a triple-double. The Suns don’t have anyone to match up with Batum and I think he tops 35 FP’s in this one.