NBA Play-In Tournament Odds: Picks for Hornets at Pacers, Wizards at Celtics
Sloan Piva previews the first two games of the NBA play-in tournament, which tips off Tuesday, May 18, 2021. Follow along for NBA picks for the Hornets at Pacers and Wizards at Celtics.
For the second-consecutive season, the NBA is hosting a play-in tournament to determine the final teams into the playoffs. This unique wrinkle was developed by the league’s Board of Directors, and tweaked a bit between last season and this season. Whereas last season the play-in tourney solely determined the eighth and final seed in the East and West, this play-in will crown both the seventh and eighth seeds in each conference.
Last season, the eighth seeds went up against the ninth seeds for each conference’s final playoff spot. This year, things have become a bit more complex. Each conference’s teams with the seventh and eighth best regular-season records will do battle to determine the seventh seeds—one game, winner takes the seed. Each conference’s ninth and tenth seeds will also play each other. The winners of the nine-ten matchups will then play the loser of their respective conferences’ seven-eight matchup to determine the eighth seed.
Got all that?! Easy peasy, right? The State Farm NBA Play-In Tournament may not have the full support of all historians of the game, never mind NBA veterans (cough, LeBron James, cough). But everybody can agree that it makes things more interesting. And it adds a handful of opportunities for us to bet on basketball! So, let’s jump in!
NBA Play-In Tournament Odds & Picks
No. 9 Indiana Pacers vs. No. 10 Charlotte Hornets
NBA Pick: Pacers -150 ML, OVER 228
The nine-ten matchup in the Eastern Conference will pit the young-gunning Hornets against a Pacers squad that has been ravaged by injuries this season. Both these teams scuffled through the final stretch of the regular season, with Charlotte losing its last five games and Indy losing seven of its last 12 games.
The Hornets are the more fun pick here. They have a younger core, led by Rookie of the Year front-runner LaMelo Ball, lethal scoring guard Terry Rozier, dunking highlight reel Miles Bridges, and breakout big man P.J. Washington. But their flaws are often glaring, especially against quality opponents. Charlotte’s last win against a top-six seed was over the Blazers one month ago today.
Multiple factors have resulted in the Hornets’ woes against upper-echelon teams. For one, they have an inexperienced coaching staff, led by second-year head coach James Borrego, one of the youngest coaches in the league at 43. Another factor has been injuries—top offseason acquisition and former All-Star Gordon Hayward has missed a boatload of games, including the last 24 with a foot injury. Ball, who has emerged as one of the better point guards in the NBA in his debut season, missed a full month with a wrist injury. Washington, Bridges, and Devonte’ Graham have all missed time, as well.
With Hayward out, the Hornets tend to rely too heavily on Ball’s playmaking, and too little on team defense and rebounding. Their shooting is inconsistent (45% from the field, 51% from two), and they don’t get to the line much (averaging 20.9 free throw attempts, 24th in the NBA). These weaknesses will all be targeted—and likely exploited—by Indiana.
The Pacers aren’t world-beaters by any measure, and their 2020-21 season has been an utter disappointment. They have seen Domantas Sabonis, Malcolm Brogdon, Myles Turner, Caris LeVert, and Jeremy Lamb all miss time due to injury. COVID Bubble MVP T.J. Warren elected to have season-ending foot surgery in the preseason, reportedly favoring going under the knife to playing for first-year head coach Nate Bjorkgren. But with all that said, Indy is still a better team, as currently constituted, than the Charlotte Hornets.
The biggest reason to choose the Pacers in this matchup is, of course, the fact that they just need one win while Charlotte needs two. But a close second is Sabonis, who can be downright unstoppable when he’s on. A constant triple-double threat, the star center will be very difficult for the young Hornets to contain.
Indy also thrives when it comes to offensive playmaking and defensive takeaways. The Pacers rank second in the NBA in assists (27.4 per game), third in field goals made (43.3), first in blocks (6.4), and fifth in steals (6.4). Opponents make the fourth-fewest treys in the NBA against Indy (11.5), and shoot just 52.1 percent from two (seventh-worst opponent average)
The Hornets took two out of three games from the Pacers in the regular season, and won the only game of the series at Bankers Life Fieldhouse 114-97 April 2. But that was when Hayward was playing, and long before Charlotte’s current five-game losing streak. Indy has Sabonis healthy, LeVert balling, T.J. McConnell serving as the steals-and-dimes guy, and breakout center Oshae Brissett scorching the Earth recently. It’s all going to be too much for this young Charlotte squad to handle.
I don’t think Indiana has a very promising playoff road beyond this week, but I do like the Pacers to knock off Charlotte in a one-and-done at home. Pick Indy -150 on the moneyline to advance to the eighth seed play-in game. I would also be all-in on the OVER of 228 points, as both these teams have played in some high-scoring contests as of late.
NBA PREDICTION: Pacers 117-114
No. 8 Washington Wizards at No. 9 Boston Celtics
NBA Pick: Wizards +1.5, UNDER 232.5
As a native Masshole and lifelong New England resident, I can attest to how utterly despicable the majority of hoops fans in the northeast consider this iteration of the Celtics. In a little under eight months, Boston has gone from a Finals contender to an absolute laughingstock of the league. And it will all come to a peak of misery this week, when the C’s lose to the always-dangerous Wizards.
Green Teamers all understand that some things are out of the hands of Celtics GM Danny Ainge and head coach Brad Stevens. Persistent injuries to star point guards Kemba Walker and Marcus Smart proved to severely hinder Boston’s offensive flow throughout the season. Then there were injuries to the C’s already-lacking big man rotation, and nagging ailments for midseason sharpshooter acquisition Evan Fournier. Finally, there was the death blow of losing Jaylen Brown to a season-ending wrist injury.
As if Bostonians weren’t dejected enough about their fallen hardwood heroes, they now have to watch their squad try to contain one of the hottest teams in the NBA. Led by one of the five best scorers on the planet in Bradley Beal, and a possessed triple-double machine in Russell Westbrook, the Wizards went on an absolute tear to grind their way into the Play-In Tourney. They inconceivably moved from 17-32 and in 13th place on April 6 to 34-38 and in eighth place at the end of the season. For the mathematically-illiterate, that’s a 17-6 run, a better winning percentage in the final six weeks of the regular season than 28 other teams.
In that insane 23-game stretch, Westbrook registered an unfathomable 19 triple-doubles and Beal averaged over 31 points per game. Beal, who finished the regular season as the second-highest scorer in the NBA behind Stephen Curry, will play through a hamstring injury that forced him to miss nine of Washington’s last 27 games.
Even if Beal won’t be at 100 percent, he’s 100 percent a problem for Boston. The All-Star averaged 40.7 points per game against the Celtics this season, and dropped 46, 41, and 44 the last three times he played at TD Garden. The combination of his effortless scoring ability and Westbrook’s fiery competitiveness could wreak havoc on a C’s team that has struggled to defend since the Brown injury.
Boston has also struggled to score consistently without Brown, who averaged 24.7 points, six rebounds and 3.4 assists per game before his season ended with a torn scapholunate ligament in his left wrist. In the Celtics’ final seven games without the fifth-year stud, they lost five games and failed to reach 100 points three times. All-Star forward Jayson Tatum has answered the bell as the go-to workhorse, but all too often the offense has devolved into isolation hero ball.
The Celtics did win the regular season series over Washington 2-1, culminating in Boston’s 111-110 rubber match victory on February 28 despite not having Brown that night. However, both these teams were much different in February than they are now. Those were the Wizards who lost 28 of their first 43 games. These current Wizards have won 17 of their last 23. And they are facing a Celtics squad that finished the season on a 5-10 stretch, falling to lowly squads like OKC, Chicago, and Cleveland. “Fiyah up the Duck Boats, Sully… the Celtics ahh headed for the Numbah 8 seed game!”
NBA PREDICTION: Wizards 115-109
Image Credit: Imagn