Suns-Bucks Game 3 Player Props, Picks: Bets for Chris Paul & Jae Crowder

by Dan Gaspar (MrTuttle05) Last Updated 2021-07-10 18:36:57

Phoenix jumped out to a quick 2-0 lead in the NBA Finals after a 118-108 win on Thursday night. The series will head to Milwaukee with Game 3 taking place at 8:00 ET on Sunday night. Despite the game still being more than 24 hours away, sportsbooks have begun to release player props. Here’s an early look at three of my favorite Game 3 player props currently available at BetMGM.

Bucks-Suns NBA Player Props & Picks

Jae Crowder, Over 10.5 Points (-115)

Let me start by saying I like this number regardless of Torrey Craig’s status but like it even more – and other Jae Crowder and Mikal Bridges overs – if Craig is unavailable for Sunday’s game. Crowder and Bridges were already looking at expanded roles with Dario Saric out for the remainder of the season with a torn ACL and would be in line for even more minutes if Craig is inactive. Instead of giving Abdel Nader a look, head coach Monty Williams went straight back to Mikal Bridges when Torrey Craig left Game 2 at the end of the third quarter. This makes me think we are more likely to see a tight 7-man rotation in Game 3 if Craig is out than Nader directly filling in Craig’s vacated minutes.

Even if Craig is available to suit up, Crowder should still be in line for mid-30’s minutes and near double-digit field goal attempts like he did in the first two games of the series. Crowder’s offensive production is dependent on his success from the three-point line which is less than ideal when betting the over but he has gotten plenty of good looks from deep this series thanks to tremendous ball movement by the Suns.

Chris Paul, Over 8.5 Assists (-115)

A lot of the narrative after Game 2 was how “lucky” Phoenix was from deep, making 20 of their 40 3-point attempts. Analysis from @Shot_Quality on Twitter showed that based on the quality of their shot attempts, the Suns were expected to score 14 less points and were expected to shoot 38% from three. This made me think – if Phoenix shot significantly better than expected, maybe someone like Chris Paul ran super hot in converting potential assists into assists. However, that was nowhere near the case.

Paul finished Game 2 with 8 assists but led the way with 19 potential assists. In fact, Paul has had plenty of assist opportunities throughout the first two games of the series, averaging 20 potential assists per game. While his teammates have let him down a bit in converting those potential assists into actual assists, Paul is still averaging 8.5 assists per game, which is exactly where his assist prop is set at for Game 3. Based on opportunity alone, that number seems a bit low and I like the idea of betting the over in each game for the rest of the series as long as the number sits in this 8.5-9 range.
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Jrue Holiday, Over 19.5 Points (-110)

Before you place this bet make sure you avoid looking at Holiday’s FG% over the first two games of the series. Holiday has had his fair share of shooting struggles throughout Milwaukee’s playoff run but encouragingly continues to be aggressive with 20 or more field goal attempts in three of his last four games. Coach Budenholzer has no choice but to ride Holiday, Giannis, and Middleton into 40+ minutes of playing time which should continue to give Jrue plenty of opportunity to score the ball. While Holiday’s matchup against Phoenix is undoubtedly tougher than what he saw against Atlanta, it’s worth noting that he was able to score 19+ points in five of six games in that series.

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