NBA Player Prop Bets, Picks: CP3 Assist Spree Continues (Friday, June 11)
The weekend commences with NBA playoff basketball, as the Hawks host the Sixers at 7:30 pm ET followed by the Suns at Nuggets at 10 pm, both on ESPN. Sloan Piva has already previewed picks for both games, but I’m here to take a closer look at the matchups and our favorite player prop bets for Friday night, June 11, 2021.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Using projections from our friends at Scores and Odds, I’ve scoured the lines to find the best value for player prop bets. And to be clear, I use the verb “scour” quite liberally. Really, with help from Scores and Odds props page, I can quickly find the best odds and sportsbook for all of my best NBA bets. Here are a few that stick out for tonight’s Suns-Nuggets and Sixers-Hawks matchups.
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Nikola Jokic, Over 6.5 Assists
Earlier this week, the NBA announced that the Serbian superstar was the league’s newest MVP. If you watched basketball during the regular season, the announcement came as no surprise. Jokic averaged 26.4 points, 10.8 rebounds, and 8.3 assists when the season ended. He was even more impressive in the first round of the playoffs, averaging 33 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 4.5 assists as he led the Nuggets past Damian Lillard and the Portland Trail Blazers.
With injuries taking their toll on the Nuggets’ roster, more is being asked of Jokic than ever. Unfortunately for Colorado bettors, the bulk of which are betting on their home-state team, the league’s MVP isn’t finding as much success against the Suns. Coming up with defensive game plans to slow down the reigning MVP, Suns head coach Monty Williams has proven why he’s deserving of Coach of the Year honors. The Nuggets now trail the Suns 0-2, losing their first two games by a combined 52 points. Jokic is scoring, but not with the ease he did against Portland. He scored only 22 and 24 points, respectively, in Games 1 and 2. In Game 2, we saw Jokic take six fewer shots than in Game 1 while dishing twice as many assists (6). I expect the Suns to continue to force the ball out of Jokic’s hands, so I’m betting on over 6.5 assists Friday night. Hopefully Denver’s supporting cast can make enough shots to get us over the hump.
Trae Young, Under 27.5 Points
If you’re a DFS player transitioning to betting on player props, then you should be aware that, as a general rule, there’s more value betting under on props than over. It’s in bettors’ psyches to bet on the over, which often moves the lines and creates +EV opportunities for those willing to go against the grainn.
This isn’t always true, of course — my first bet of the night was on an over. However, for Trae Young, our projections have the point guard scoring just over 25.5 points, nearly two points fewer than his scoring prop at sportsbooks. Like the Suns against Jokic, the Sixers are focusing on slowing down Young. They were unsuccessful in Game 1, allowing the dynamic point guard to score 35 points, but the Sixers’ defense redeemed itself in Game 2, holding Young to merely 21 points on 6-of-16 shooting. The 22-year-old will play in front of Atlanta’s home crowd Friday night, which should help him in a difficult matchup against Ben Simmons and Matisse Thybulle, two hard-nosed defensive players.
Maybe I should know better than to bet against Young on his home court. I fully understand if you’re hesitant to follow my lead here on under 27.5 points, so if you’re betting appetite is more suited for a Trae Young over, let me just say I prefer betting over 9.5 assists.
Chris Paul, Over 10.5 Assists
The Suns have a phenomenal pick-and-roll offensive scheme, but it’s mostly veteran point guard and future Hall of Famer Chris Paul who is racking up the assists. Paul started the Eastern Conference semifinals by delivering 11 assists and then followed up with 15 in Game 2. That makes three straight outings in which CP3 has had at least 11 assists. Give me over 10.5 assists in Game 3.
Devin Booker, Under 5.5 Assists
Devin Booker contributed some assists of his own in Game 1, but recorded only two on Wednesday. In total, Booker has had fewer than 5.5 assists in five of eight games this postseason. We have to lay some extra juice at BetMGM Sportsbook to bet under 5.5, but I think it’s worth it. Booker’s assist prop is resting at O/U 4.5 elsewhere in the industry.
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