Suns vs. Nuggets Odds, Game 3 Preview, Picks, & Prediction

by Sloan Piva (SloanPiva) Last Updated 2024-06-18 11:14:06

Suns vs. Nuggets Game 3 Odds

This week, Nuggets star Nikola Jokic became the newest recipient of the NBA Most Valuable Player Award — great news for Joker fans who wagered on the big man to win MVP at Colorado sportsbooks. But he, and Nuggets fans, would probably trade that in without a second thought if he could give himself a better chance at winning an NBA title. Denver’s opponent, the Phoenix Suns, look like a complete team ready and able to take it the long haul toward the NBA Finals. Could we be looking at six straight seasons in which the MVP fails to win it all?

NBA Picks: Suns vs. Nuggets Odds Update

Updated 4:10 pm ET, Friday, June 11, 2021

• GM 3 Moneyline: The Nuggets are receiving more moneyline bets than the Suns Friday night, but not by much. The consensus handle is pretty evenly split, with 52% on the Nuggets to win their first game of the series. Current ods at BetMGM list the Nuggets as -120 favorites.

• GM 3 Spread: Denver is also receiving the majority of bets against the spread. As of Friday afternoon, 58% of the consensus handle is on the Nuggets, currently -1.5 favorites. If you’re Phoenix bettor shopping for the best price, you can bet on the Suns +2 at FanDuel Sportsbook.

• GM 3 Over/Under: Once again the public is predicting a high-scoring affair in Game 3, with a whopping 80% of money on the Over. Though there appears to be plenty of money on the Over, oddsmakers haven’t budged when it comes to the point total, which opened where it currently sits: O/U 222.5.

• Suns vs. Nuggets Props: Looking for prop picks for Friday night’s two-game slate? Don’t worry, thanks to prop projections from our friends at Scores and Odds, we’ve got you covered with a quartert of player prop bets, including three like for this matchup. Check out the article to see who we like for the Sixers-Hawks matchup, too, and then visit ScoresAndOdds for additional information that will help you make money throughout the NBA Playoffs.

Suns vs. Nuggets Game Preview

Yes, we most likely will be. Jokic is being asked to do far too much for the Nuggets, which is a problem whether Denver is home or away. Phoenix outscored Denver 65-47 in the second half of Game 1, wrapping up a 122-107 victory and never looking back. The Suns won handily 123-98 in Game 2, with no Nugget besides Jokic eclipsing 11 points or six rebounds.

Denver’s “(player-popup #michael-porter-jr)Michael Porter Jr is only 116 games into his NBA career, he has an ailing back, and he’s only scored 26 points total in two semifinals games. He had dropped 26 points in both Game 5 and 6 in the opening-round win over Portland. Nuggets coach Michael Malone needs MPJ to be great, but instead he’s been good. Meanwhile, veterans Aaron Gordon and Paul Millsap have been pedestrian at best. And then there’s the guard situation…

How much does Malone miss Jamal Murray? Probably about as much as my uncle laments my older cousin never making it to the big-leagues because of a collegiate knee injury. The Nuggets guards have been abysmal so far this series— Facundo Campazzo, Austin Rivers, and Monte Morris combined to shoot 8-of-26 from the field in Game 1 (and only 4-of-14 from three-point land). They shot 4-of-19 (and 3-of-12 from distance) in Game 2. They are quite literally choking right in front of our eyes against Phoenix’s dominating perimeter defense.

It’s almost sad to watch at this point, as Jokic is such a great person and obviously deserves all the accolades thrust upon him. But without Murray, he’s got an unfathomable amount of pressure thrust upon him, and the timing of the MVP announcement is probably compounding that. But when no teammate can reach five field goals in a 48-minute game, what’s a Serbian to do?

Malone has spoken about Denver’s inability to get physical, and he’s right. But the Nuggets have been soft all year. Now their second-best player is in street clothes, and their third-best player has a stiff back that’s been a reoccurring problem for him since college. You don’t need a magic 8-ball to know the reality of Denver’s current title hopes: the “outlook is not so good.”

Read More Playoff Betting Tips: Sixers vs. Hawks Preview

Suns, Paul Stay Hot

As for Monty Williams’ Suns squad, the “outlook is good.” Chris Paul should have received more votes for MVP, after helping Williams shoot Phoenix up from a .500 team to the two-seed in the west (but I digress…). Instead, he just seems content to pummel Jokic and the Nuggets to oblivion in what sure seems like it’s going to be a short series.

CP3 was the perfect piece for this Phoenix franchise. He brings out the best in Deandre Ayton, takes a lot of the offensive weight off Devin Booker’s shoulders, and spaces the floor brilliantly for Jae Crowder and Mikal Bridges. And when he checks out, Cameron Payne checks in to keep the pace up and the knife to Denver’s throat.

In Game 1, four Suns eclipsed 20 points and their starting five accounted for 100 total points. In Game 2, the starters had 77 points, but five players in the second unit reached at least seven points. The Suns have 57 assists to just 17 turnovers so far in the semifinals (3.35 AST-to-TO ratio). They have shot 50.8 percent from the floor, 31-of-72 from three-point land (43%), and 32-of-37 from the line (86.5%). Good luck beating a team shooting 50-40-86, especially when your second and third best players are hurt.

Suns vs. Nuggets Game 3 Pick

I’m reluctant to hop too far into the Phoenix bandwagon here, as I love Jokic and respect all that he’s capable of on the court. I also don’t play around with picking the spread (DEN -1.5) against desperate teams going back home for the first time in a series. But the Suns have looked completely in control of this semifinals match for the last six frames, and Denver somehow keeps sinking further into the quicksand.

I honestly could have written this betting preview after watching one quarter of Wednesday’s game. The Nuggets shot 1-of-14 from three-point land, struggled mightily with finding quality looks near the basket, and didn’t hit the boards or go after loose or 50/50 balls. MPJ literally looked dazed. If not for Jokic, and Will Barton’s promising return, the Nugs might have waved the white flag completely midway through the second quarter.

The Suns have no quit in them. They keep coming and coming and coming. They won’t stop competing until they have reached the final destination they signed up for—the NBA title. I don’t think Phoenix will smoke Denver by between 17-25 points again, but I also don’t see them losing more than one game in this series. Maybe that one game is this one, but smart money says it’s not. Give me Phoenix as long as this series is active—I’ll take their moneyline on the road, and their spread if—and it’s a big if—they have to go back home to close it out.

FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Suns 120-117

PICK: Suns ML +105

Image Credit: Imagn