NBA Player Prop Bets, Picks: Value on Durant & James (Tuesday, June 15)
We have only one NBA Playoff game Tuesday night, but, as you’ll find out in our Bucks vs. Nets betting preview, it delivers no shortage of storylines. Over the last week, Kevin Durant has lashed out at ESPN’s Jay Williams, James Harden has beef with 50 Cent, and Kyrie Irving suffered a nasty ankle injury that is keeping him out of Game 5 and likely beyond. Harden, too, will be on the bench as the former MVP continues to recover from a nagging hamstring injury. With Harden and Kyrie both sidelined, where does that leave NBA bettors ahead of Game 5? With some value on Bucks-Nets player props.
(Update: At least that’s what we thought. The Nets upgraded Harden to doubtful for Game 5 Tuesday morning.)
I have futures tickets on the Nets, and laid odds on them beating Milwaukee in the series, so the sky is a little grey in my neck of the woods. My cup is staying half-full, though. Game 5 is the perfect opportunity to profit on player props for Durant, Mike James, and more, and that’s where I will focus my NBA betting picks on tonight.
Without further ado, let’s take a look at these props and matchups before making our bets.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Using projections from our friends at Scores and Odds, I’ve scoured the lines to find the best value for player prop bets. And to be clear, I use the verb ‘scour’ quite liberally. Really, with help from Scores and Odds props pages page, I can quickly find the best odds and sportsbook for all of my best NBA bets. So can you by signing up for SAO Premium!
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Antetokounmpo, Under 32.5 Points (BetMGM)
SAO Projection: 30.59 Points
Giannis started the series scoring 34 points, followed by 18, 33, and 34. That’s three games in which he’s scored more than 32. However, there’s reason to bet on the under tonight.
With Harden (doubtful) and Kyrie out, this game has the lowest Over/Under we’ve seen so far this series. The smaller point total might also have something to do due with the Under cashing a perfect 4-for-4. If these teams play at a slower pace in Game 5, then we should also expect fewer points for Bucks players, since, unlike the Nets, they aren’t likely to see an uptick in usage due to injuries.
Moreover, Scores and Odds projects Antetokounmpo to score 30.59 points, nearly two points fewer than his player prop at BetMGM Sportsbook
Durant, Over 35.5 Points (BetMGM)
SAO Projection: 36.51 Points
While I might like the Under for Giannis, the same isn’t true for Nets superstar Kevin Durant. There’s no question Durant has to put this team on his shoulders in Game 5, and it’s the perfect opportunity to prove he’s the best player in the NBA. I think he can do it, and so do SAO’s projections. They have him projected to score 36.51 points, one point more than his player prop at online sportsbooks. I actually think Durant will exceed those lofty expectations. I predict him to score more than 40 points as he leads the Nets to a victory inside Barclays Center.
James, Over 3.5 Rebounds (FanDuel)
SAO Projection: 4.27 Rebounds
Another player who has to step up in Game 5 is Mike James. Nets head coach Steve Nash called upon James in games 1 & 2, and the six-foot-one 30-year-old guard answered. In 30 minutes of play, James scored 12 points, making 45.5% of his shots. He also racked up seven rebounds and three assists during that span. I played six fewer minutes in Game 2 but still scored 10 points while adding three assists and three boards.
James was less effective in Game 3, only playing 12 minutes. In Game 4, he scored five points in 20 minutes. Tonight, he’s projected to score 12.26 points, and, for our betting purposes, FanDuel Sportsbook sets the Over/Under at 11.5 points.
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What I like more than Over 11.5 points, though, is Over/ 3.5 rebounds, also at FanDuel. With this bet we don’t have to lay as much juice to take the over.
While I do like the betting over on James’ player props tonight, it’s worth reiterating that the Nets have upgraded Harden to doubtful for Game 5. I don’t know whether this is gamesmanship or not, but I won’t be shocked if Harden suits up. As a result, I’m not betting on James’ props until there’s more clarification regarding the Beard’s status.
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